All of the China stuff going on recently really doesn't smell like a deliberate ploy from the Chinese. I have thought about it a lot and it just doesn't make sense to me that there is some big buy low sell high scheme involving cooperation between the central government, banks, and Bitcoin exchanges.
Clearly the central government doesn't like bitcoin. One of the big things with money in China is that the government likes to keep a tight control on money leaving the country. They will happily let you bring in as much as you want, but put up lots of walls and obstructions to getting it out. They are primarily worried about wealthy people taking their capital out of China. If I need to fill out tons of paperwork, bring lots of verification, pay high fees and have $50,000 USD a year money conversion limits, Bitcoin is a very attractive option. One can spend two minutes online and all of $0-5 (depending on if you have an account at the same bank or not) to send money to an exchange's bank account. From there, you can buy all the bitcoin you want at market prices and incur no fees. You can sell this bitcoin anywhere else you want at any time you want, and the government has no idea that you have moved your wealth outside of the country. I think this is what they are most worried about, capital outflows.
Also, any scheme like this would be small potatoes for anybody high enough in the party to have the power to make these decisions and it would come with great risks. There are too many wheels to grease and not enough trading volume and profits that could possibly make it worthwhile. If a scheme was exposed to include the central government, the major banks, the heads of Chinese Bitcoin exchanges, and all of their close friends, heads would roll. This is way too public and out in the open for it to be related to corruption anyway. It really just seems like business as usual in China, where the government doesn't know what to do and flip flops on decisions, and everyone drags their feet on doing anything until they really have to.
Lastly, news about all of this stuff within China is very clear and accurate and the exchanges have all been very forthcoming with accurate information. They wouldn't sit there being honest about everything and telling people not to panic about what they read on English-language websites if they actually wanted to devalue the fiat price of Bitcoin. The Chinese government says one thing, but the real message gets lost in translation and becomes "China is banning Bitcoin!!!" People realize it isn't true, but then panic when the banks finally start to do what the government told them to do. Of course, with each new development, the message we hear in English is the same "China is banning Bitcoin!!!" baloney. Half of the panic is caused by people outside of China fearing the worst, and half is by people outside of China who actually do know what is going on but try to spread fear to buy in at lower prices.
China isn't going to ban Bitcoin. They just want to make life a little more difficult for those who use it. There are plenty of things that actually are banned in China that the government doesn't do anything about.
Clearly the central government doesn't like bitcoin. One of the big things with money in China is that the government likes to keep a tight control on money leaving the country. They will happily let you bring in as much as you want, but put up lots of walls and obstructions to getting it out. They are primarily worried about wealthy people taking their capital out of China. If I need to fill out tons of paperwork, bring lots of verification, pay high fees and have $50,000 USD a year money conversion limits, Bitcoin is a very attractive option. One can spend two minutes online and all of $0-5 (depending on if you have an account at the same bank or not) to send money to an exchange's bank account. From there, you can buy all the bitcoin you want at market prices and incur no fees. You can sell this bitcoin anywhere else you want at any time you want, and the government has no idea that you have moved your wealth outside of the country. I think this is what they are most worried about, capital outflows.
Also, any scheme like this would be small potatoes for anybody high enough in the party to have the power to make these decisions and it would come with great risks. There are too many wheels to grease and not enough trading volume and profits that could possibly make it worthwhile. If a scheme was exposed to include the central government, the major banks, the heads of Chinese Bitcoin exchanges, and all of their close friends, heads would roll. This is way too public and out in the open for it to be related to corruption anyway. It really just seems like business as usual in China, where the government doesn't know what to do and flip flops on decisions, and everyone drags their feet on doing anything until they really have to.
Lastly, news about all of this stuff within China is very clear and accurate and the exchanges have all been very forthcoming with accurate information. They wouldn't sit there being honest about everything and telling people not to panic about what they read on English-language websites if they actually wanted to devalue the fiat price of Bitcoin. The Chinese government says one thing, but the real message gets lost in translation and becomes "China is banning Bitcoin!!!" People realize it isn't true, but then panic when the banks finally start to do what the government told them to do. Of course, with each new development, the message we hear in English is the same "China is banning Bitcoin!!!" baloney. Half of the panic is caused by people outside of China fearing the worst, and half is by people outside of China who actually do know what is going on but try to spread fear to buy in at lower prices.
China isn't going to ban Bitcoin. They just want to make life a little more difficult for those who use it. There are plenty of things that actually are banned in China that the government doesn't do anything about.
Nobody can "ban" bitcoin". let's make that very clear. the question is can the chinese govt ban exchanges or effectively shut down their operations by cutting off fiat deposits and withdrawals. im getting the feeling that the PBOC is pissed off that the banks did not follow the spirit of their original statements back in december. on april 15, banks were supposed to shut down all the exchanges bank accounts. that obviously did not happen, hence why we have a 3rd "ban".
If may 10th passes by and exchanges are still operational, I wonder if we'll have a 4th ban. will it be another notice or will they finally make some arrests?
what is your prediction on May 11th? have you read zhangweiwu's posts on the china situation?
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/28/chinese-banks-dont-know-how-to-act-appropriate-cause-bitcoin-is-too-tiny/
this pastebin is pretty good too: http://pastebin.com/BL6mxneP
