Topic: BTC could reach 6 figures (rational explanation) (Read 487 times)

Obviously, referring to the law of Supply and Demand, the six figure value of Bitcoin would be proven by the halving event that is coming in just a couple months. As the whole world have known the event, many are expecting for its price to increase massively. As long as, the players continue to hold Bitcoin till it reach a new record, this prediction would be close to a realization. Investors and supporters of Bitcoin should indeed hold and trust Bitcoin as its supply would decrease because of halving. For me, a new all time high value of Bitcoin would soon happen gradually after the month of the halving because the demand for the coin would surely increase massively.

6 figures in matter of year or two? No it wont be easy as it sounds but the possibilities you had mentioned might happened or not.It will depend on adoption though but knowing that
traditional investors wont be easily be hooked up nor recognized crypto market as viable thing for them to engage.They do always matter or do have concern when it comes to security.
This is why hesitance is still there and still seeing the market doesnt rise up much due to that reason.Institutional funds wont easily flow here on crypto.

Those markets you reference are driven by large investors or institutions.  Something will have to shift rather quickly to get them to play in the crypto market.  Drops like we see in crypto would have people losing careers and life savings if they happened in other markets.  It might take awhile for a portion of those markets to shift into crypto.  Right now crypto is the super pink sheets in the investing world as a whole.  Can it happen sure is it likely to 10-12X from here next year, I think that might be a stretch but who knows right 

It worth reading all the mentioned price range are just prediction of what the price of bitcoin market could be after halving and no one is 100% sure it that their prediction will happen.
Nevertheless,it too early to expect the crypto market to experience rally and I'm sure you'll agree with me if you check the year 2017 market thoroughly.

Very promising post,worth reading when things really happen because it looks truthful because i also believe that the innocence of people around the globe is what Hindering the price to step up and make a new HYPE.
how i wish the adoption comes soon now and market will kick start breaking the 2017 highest value of all time.

Absolutely correct reasoning. Even if we assume that the price of bitcoin will soar for some reason up to one hundred thousand dollars, it is unlikely that it will stand for long at this mark. It will inevitably fall in the future. Therefore, a significant increase in the price of bitcoin is fraught with another danger. How will investors relate to Bitcoin after the drop in the price of Bitcoin again to ten thousand dollars? Will the next wave of growth in its price be possible if investors know that Bitcoin will fall again after a price increase, which means that it is not worth investing in it with a significant increase. In my opinion, this is precisely what will prevent the Bitcoin from growing too high in value later.

This possible "downward spiral" after May, is protected by the increase of the stock to flow ratio, bull market long term steady FOMO & increment of the number of people doing HODL.

2 years ago, was exactly the middle of the 4 year cycle. It was a price that only grew in short term FOMO, without any downward protection.

Great article and you have mentioned every details clearly which educates us about how bitcoin works and why the value did not reach 6 digit figure till now but I would still not believe that the value of bitcoin will reach 6 digit anytime sooner. Already we have witnessed similar speculations I am not trying to portray this in negative way but there are so many factors which decides Bitcoin's value and even if something goes wrong then market will go downward spiral like it happened in last two year.

What is keeping the price at this current level is the centralization of the supply in the hand of a few whales. 99% of the supply is controlled by 1% of users.

Lack of clarity and knowledge by the masses is a consequence of this fact, not its cause. People dont use it because they fear it. How can someone receive his wage in bitcoin if its price can fall 40% in the next month? Plus there is the responsibility which is higher than just leaving your money in a bank. Most people dont want responsibility over their own money.

For now, we are at mercy of the whales and they will define the price in their bunkers, like in a spy flick.

Everyone can make a logical explanation why it could reach that 6-figure price but in reality, we will be missing a lot of factors that are vital in its growth. Without solid adoption from masses, which by the way most of btc holders are holding it and not spending it as a regular money like fiat, would be a large contribution on how the btc performs in the market. I believe if a large percentage of population will be using crypto as everyday payment method in everything he does, I truly believe the price will go high.

But, a capped supply, and growing demand makes Bitcoin hold its value in. It might look volatile/manipulated between peaks and troughs, but I believe reaching a 6 figure price would make 100 - 1000 moves look stable.

Maybe Bitcoin was made to be a 6 figure coin.

Nearing 6 figure by the end of 2 years can be a great growth but going 6 figures within a year is a very clear market manipulation. I'm very much expectant of the pricing by September (halving). The run for 10k this month has ended since there is a lack of support at $9300+ pricing but since we are now on $9000 mark I expect support to be seen at around $9600+ by 2nd week of February. Growth must always be driven by support not just a synthetic growth or clear whale manipulation.

Interesting isn't it, how we've widened our perceptions for what makes for rational explanations, once we really get down to it? I already said now in my mind rational price is already very relative in my Bitcoin vocabulary, but once we also take into account other factors like supply (I still think it's irrational to think of 1 BTC instead of 1 satoshi) and mining ATH (I still think it's irrational that the biggest miners are thinking to double or triple their rig capacities in a few months), then we start to see it's a bit pointless to define the limits of what's rational for Bitcoin =)

I'd more believe that what happened in particular with the increase in the past is by due demand in that period only and not because there is an interval or whatsoever. The market price increase is canmot be predicted and controlled especially those which lasted for a period of time. The behavior of the price of Bitcoin does depend on the market situation itself, the differences could be resulted by volatility of the market in nature.

yeah bitcoin has limited supply but there are also altcoins flowing  in the market so the demand in Bitcoin will lessen when the altcoins comes to their own functions,remember that all these currencies has their own service and products offered that can help the people in their daily lives so i believe that when this happen Bitcoin will be the ranked number 1 still but alts will help him serve the people.

It really depends. Smart money definitely has exits strategies, but most people (dumb money) act irrationally during either bear or bull markets.

I have seen it happen around me where people aren't satisfied with the number of coins that they hold and think it's better to add to their position instead of unloading. I think it's safe to say that we all have gone through a time where we wish we bought more coins instead of being so conservative. It's tough to see the price go up a lot while at the same time thinking about how much profit you could have had if you bought more.

In the end, it's better to just have a big fat hodl stack and sit on it for 5-10 years than to worry about missing out on the next bull cycle. The base floor of the price keeps increasing steadily, but gets a massive boost after each bull cycle, even after the 70-80% bear market.

Thanks, I'm glad at least someone reads and appreciates my opinion

It's not just old people that are the problem when it comes to investing in BTC, but I agree that it is very difficult (or in some cases almost impossible) to give up old habits, and risk with something completely new, which is actually still in a kind of test phase. The tradition of investing in gold and silver as a means of storing the value has been around for hundreds if not thousands of years. Fiat has also taken deep roots in today's society, and BTC is still rather undervalued, regardless of all the risks it carries.

I also think that those who have invested their time or money in BTC in any way will profit in the long run, but I still consider it a very risky bet. But it is something that can only be proven with time, so far things are going their course and the future is not looking bad.

lol I got it now! 

I think bitcoin has reached the price of 6 digits in two years, but that irrational is too high. at the moment the price of bitcoin is only $ 8k I think it will take longer to reach $ 100,000. and most people who hold bitcoin will definitely sell their bitcoin when bitcoin has reached a high price of $ 25k. and of course if many sell then this will make the price of bitcoin go down again. so I don't think bitcoin will reach $ 100k in 2021.

That's a very long target. If it takes 50 years for Bitcoin to get to $100k+, that means we're going to see a very powerful resistance in the market so I doubt it.

We're probably going to see it sooner than you expect. Especially with today's global debt and inflation.

It truly depends on the way markets develop. We cannot have a $2T market cap if the number of investors and holders doesn't continue to grow.

the most important growth is the adoption growth and the market growth both of which are happening despite the long bear market that is created after the bubbles. in fact the bear market can also lead to more adoption since price would be coming down creating opportunities for people to enter or even for traders to make money shorting bitcoin.
and the adoption is always ongoing, with price drops it may be slowed down but it won't stop.
so i'd say these "frenzies" aren't that bad either. specially since they put bitcoin in the news nonstop.

50 years later if BTC still lives, it may be 6 figures. I'd be long buried by that time. But the moment the price hit 6 figures, it will eventually plunge because most of us are just going to take profit til the market recovers again. The bear market will take place for long years again. I really do hope 6 figures will come to realize, I wanna buy myself a helicopter too like Kobe Bryant.

You didn't understand the joke. Gentlemand said 6 digits within the next couple of years. I joked for him to make a "safe" prediction, 10 years, and don't make the same mistake John McAfee did.


I'll make it short, But hashing power ATH.

Thank you for pointing that out since we still have a lot of guys who have that kind of emotion.
It needs to be stopped.
It ain't really about the 6 figures which should happen, it is about bitcoin having a better value.
Something that will be supported by the mass and not just those who want to make profit out of it.
Usage is actually the best thing that could happen.

If only more merchants would look at the same way then bitcoin might be a blast by now.
6 figures is always possible and so does 2 and 3.

Reaching a certain high price level is flashy but if it doesn't stick around, and that seems mind bendingly unlikely, it doesn't mean much.

It won't magically pivot from bubblicious frenzy to a thoughtful and measured commodity without shitting itself into another coma somewhere in between.

If that high price was reached over 2-3-4 years of consistent growth then that's different but people are too prone to excitement still. If that's ever to happen it won't be anywhere near this cycle.

What a good post. This is very true. And the majority of people who are holding big money are old. They see BTC without respect, as if it where a joke. Like a geek toy. So they don't study it. Don't get sirious about it. But the thing is that nobody wants to be left behind. If BTC builds up more momentum & numbers start to spike, &  get massive. Then they will look at it siriously & they will finally see it's inmense value & more money will begin to enter. Slowly but finaly the big players will be interested. There will be more infrastructure, crypto banks, custiodans, regulation, etc. Money will move from the rich to the poor. Anyone that HODL hard for long term will benefit from this wealth transfer.

Looks that the next era after the halving will be the "make it or break it" point based on the premise if Bitcoin manages to rise to levels that make it an equivalent alternative for a store of value and an unit of account. All bets are on, at least mine.

Don't forget to take some profits along the way.

I dont see much chances that Bitcoin would not reach six figures in next 3 years time. Two years can be a bit more risky, but in three years, Bitcoin would be really unlucky not to go over $100.000

This is very likely to happen. Since the supply of Bitcoin is limited, the demand for Bitcoin is increasing day by day. Bitcoin prices will continue to rise as incredible as mass adoption. And this is why Bitcoin will go to 6 figure. But no one can say how many years it will take. First Bitcoin will have to break the previous ath, then the rest will know how long it will take.

https://time.com/4475048/which-came-first-chicken-egg/

bitcoin fits to be the egg !
any money value is possible , 6 figures or 12.

problem is the paradox insists :

when and if Bitcoin reach such heights ...
no sane people on earth will give a shit or sell.
trade directly to goods and services that is.

@OP you can change your title freely to : when money as we know will finally die ?   

my 3 satoshis !

Elias Ch.

Then it might be a good theory or maybe not.
As you said, we should really be more careful now.

We dont really know if whales start dumping every bitcoin again in pursue for a larger profit now.
They just saw how many supporters of crypto currencies now and I bet they want to abuse that.
So larger figures might really be difficult to reach even until now.

It won't of course. It would be wonderful if it did.

If there's to be another explosion this will definitely be the last one where I'm near all in. It's just too goddamn dull to sit through another cycle of ruin. I want to be at least a semi impartial observer in future.

There's got to be a time when it does start to level off more, and of course it did this time compared to 2013 but it was still 83% down. I don't think this cycle will be the one to reach that phase but I hope at least it'll be a bit less violent in both directions.

Once again, an opinion I could have written myself. 

Bitcoin could easily hit six figures within the next few years, but I don't think it would be because people are adopting it as a currency, nor because it competes with precious metals or fiat currency--it would be for the same reason it hit $20k in 2017, i.e., investors would be driving up the price because they want to make a profit.  And you're also probably right that most bitcoin buyers just want to see their dollar value grow.  I don't necessarily think there's anything inherently wrong with that, since that's the measure of its worth.  1BTC=1BTC, but that's meaningless if things aren't priced in terms of BTC.

I also hope that if bitcoin does get to those lofty price levels that it can stay there.  That's something I always worry about when it starts to blow up.  2017 was a euphoric year for anyone who owned bitcoin, but man....that hangover was a bitch.

Knowing how intense and crazy volatile market sessions are, it could happen at any time but the price would be pulled back shortly. The '17 hype, but on steroids.

The moves will play just the way whales want: they accumulate, price goes up, whales get rich, poor people invest at high levels, and then whales sell and make insane profits. The late investors (>70%) will keep losing while the whales (probably a handful of people) will start accumulating again.

It's a game not many are lucky enough to profit off.

If I only received 1% of BTC every time I read the market comparisons of gold, silver, all paper currencies, stocks and similar, I would be a rich man today

But let’s put the joke aside, it makes sense to think that some of the value that is stored in some other assets today may one day go to BTC. Globally, $2 trillion is not some big sum of money (although I'm sure some of you can't even imagine how much that is), so if you take $500 billion from gold/silver, $500 billion from stocks, and another $1000 billion ($1 trillion) from fiat, the real estate market, and various other sources we get a price of 1 BTC equal to $100 000.

To be honest, this is not at all unrealistic, but we have to ask ourselves, what exactly is refusing investors to choose to invest in BTC anyway? I personally think the first reason is high volatility, and thereafter insufficient legal regulation that would give some certainty to investors. It's hard to accept that something that was worth $9000 today is worth $6000 in a week or two after that and that there is a possibility (albeit a very small one) that it will someday be worth almost nothing.

Big money is looking for (especially long-term) stability and security, which is something BTC cannot provide right now. Not to be pessimistic, on the contrary, I think the next bull run will outperform the last one, at least by x5, which leads us right up to $ 100 000 - but most of the money will come from the pockets of small investors.

That guy is a joke. He has way more credit than he deserves.
I lost all respect, when I knew he got paid to create FOMO, by saying BTC would reach 1 million in 2020.

So be careful, there is also corruption in the crypto world. Some individuals in social media get paid to create FOMO & help create artificial rally's.

Yes, Bitcoin has higher chance to reach 6 figures that won't happen very soon, It may take another decade! 6 figures is not that easy, just think 1 Bitcoin at 100K USD and the reaction of the world! Bitcoin is still unfamiliar to the majority of people of this world! Though you have a point, but this is not gonna happen in the next 5 years!

The rational explanations have ALWAYS been there. And I remind myself, rational in Bitcoin is highly relative. $100 wasn't rational in 2013, $1000 wasn't in 2015, and $20000 certainly wasn't in 2017!

Every foundational aspect of Bitcoin has not only been proven, but strengthened every step since. Mass adoption and mass awareness have reached levels we like -- but when people truly understand why Bitcoin's so valuable, and when they truly begin using it (true mass adoption), oh I think 6-figures is rational. Now as to when that will happen...

But unfortunately crypto have so many lapses and the volatility is not stagnant together with the state of it that's why government and doesn't know about the technology get a hard time to accept them up as a good assets, that's why even up today ETF acceptance still floating but hopefully we can see this up granted and for sure we will see the price soar high.

I believe a good number of them will. Many of us came here because of greed, but stayed because a part inside wants to be part of something. Is it activism, a revolution? I don't know, but "something".


The next 10 years. It's safer, ask John McAfee.

In my humble opinion, The only thing that keeps BTC price low and must  be broke is the gap between crypto markets and institutional investors. As you can see on the current market condition. Only few people holds huge amount BTC and most of them are early investors. The market cap can be increased 10 folds once institutional investors aboard. That's why ETF is a big game changers once approve by the SEC which currently uncertain.

Reaching 6 figures and maintaining 6 figures are 2 different things. Take ETH for example. Back in 2017 it started out at less than $10, and around a year later it peaked at $1400. So basically a 140x growth, which is unbelievable but completely unsustainable.

So its possible that we might break $20K and quickly go to $25K and then the FOMO will build, people will see Bitcoin on TV and newspapers and within 2 months we can quickly get to $100K however it won't be able to hold that price because it will only take a few early adopters to start selling in massive quantites and won't be enough demand to keep up with massive supply.

Unfortunately its still tied to turning it into cash, which is why we are not getting shares from those markets. If there was possibility of spending bitcoin everywhere you go, do you know how easy it would be to just get even %1 of those markets? We are talking about a combined 100+ trillion markets here, getting to 1 trillion would be over 50k and even that by itself is good enough increase as of right now.

The thing is, we need some sort of offshore bank that provides anonymous debit cards and allows you to buy and store bitcoins on their bank and allow you to spend it wherever you go with the debit card without actually getting followed, that is close to impossible as it is right now, we can't really expect any bank even on offshore places to make such risky moves.

I bet for the price of bitcoin $ 100k for next year that it will be easy to touch, I not only look only at charts and do analysis, but I also look at various other aspects as you think by writing down some of the reasons above, usually I calculate the economy What's happening right now, I don't promise big profits for new people to buy bitcoin and altcoin, all investments always have risks and no one actually loses holding bitcoin unless you sell it cheap

I respect your opinion. But you are talking from what you believe & not from solid arguments or real rationalisation.

What you are saying can be applied to every moment before each halving or bullrun in BTC history. All those rising prices have been insane & people who predicted correctly where called crazy. Why shouldn't the price behave the same way towards the future? ..

The challenge to get into six-figure level can be so big that maybe we should stop thinking that it can happen within just 2 or even 5 years...we should allot more budget of time for this level to come into reality. Right now, there are many "problems" associated with Bitcoin but as for me things all boil down to the level of demand for this said cryptocurrency. We know that it has a limited supply of around 21 millions and this can be fixed so it is on the side of demand and use-cases where the biggest challenge is. Personally, I am allowing maybe 15 years as conservatively the time needed for BTC to reach the 6-figure zone (based on how things are going on right now), that is if Bitcoin will not be dead before it reached the line.

Yea for sure I agree with you. I'm just saying it could, but! if the stars align.

Which are the stars or factors I see it could create a rapid snowball effect in the price?

1) POSSIBLE STOCK MARKET CRASH (S&P 500 which it has been artificially inflated through the last 10 + years)

The probability of this crash is increasing as the price gets higher and higher. Everything that goes up must come down.

¿SAFE HEAVEN?

When the stock market crashes, people will sell the stocks & many will ask desperately, where do I put my wealth  now??? .. GOLD? BTC? .. BTC looks good, it's going up in price maybe is the new thing! gold 2.0 & they say is not correlated to anything! i'll put some there!

2) THE MEDIA isn't talking much about BTC, is very quite, the general public is not seeing why they should invest in BTC. But once it begins to go up for a couple of weeks, then the media could ignite the FOMO and awareness of people even more. This will increase the HODL and the DEMAND, and create an incredible spike in the price.

3) PRESSURE: Newcomers, new people entering because all this madness. They might feel pressure to buy so they don't loose the opportunity of their life time.

4) AWARENESS: More people interested in learning. Which will make more people see the real value of BTC.

I agree Bitcoin is great and it's still undervalued and underestimated because it's such a novelty. Many rational thinkers are scared to invest because they see Bitcoin as this misunderstood phenomenon that people are putting money into because they heard it brings big profit and makes millionaires out of teenagers.

It could be that many current Bitcoin investors don't even know how it works and those will be the ones to spread fear and panic when it doesn't do what they thought it will do (make them rich).

I might agree with some of your point, but reaching the 6 digits within the span of 2 years seems unrealistic, though I have always been saying nothing is impossible in cryptocurrency, but then again I'm talking about the realistic approach on the current market situations rn.
I mean, everytime Bitcoin breaks the resistance level, massive sell out will takes place, thus discouraging for the new investor's first impression as the price will gradually decrease.
 
I myself believe it would reach that figure, but it will take time before we see those numbers in the market.

Thanks


Well, that happens in every bullrun..

What do you mean by gift/curse of market cap?


For sure. But is nice to know there is a sound money network free for all. & can help people keep there wealth when their countries economy goes to shit.


Yea. Every cycle has its ATH & a new high low. My idea is to start selling small quantities as we rise to the ATH. & then buy when the market gets depress + DCA. But from now on I will always be participating in this network. I will probably have a major part of my savings in it.


You couldn't have explained it better  . It will actually be way worse than fiat. They will have a level of control without precedents. & to create money will be way easier without having to make bills. This garbage of cryptocurrency will make BTC shine even more.

As I said in the first post, people in power for sure know the inmense potential that BTC has. The trust that people have in goverments, the media & banks, make them vulnerable. This powers takes advantage, so they can win time, confusing and not really educating people. To maintaine the modern slavery working.

The six figures is doubtful, but increasing awareness and knowledge is definitely needed to keep Bitcoin going. I think the news from China and other governments about how they are adopting the use of blockchain is a PRIME way to build that knowledge, understanding, and (hopefully) adoption.

The only challenge is that as news of governments creating their own "digital currency" is that the public will first mis understand it totally. They'll think - "Oh, China created it's own Bitcoin, i'll just use that!" or "i heard bitcoin is owned by China now".

They won't get the fact that it's fiat currency on the blockchain, not cryptocurrency. We need to make sure we educate people along the way. Andreas could do it, Andreas will do it!

The only thing that'll make it happen is demand outstripping supply along with the gift/curse of market cap.

I can guarantee you that most of the people who make it happen won't care about hard money, government meddling or cross border freedom. They'll be after more dollars and nothing else.

It's conceivable it could happen in the next couple of years. If it does I really hope it attempts to stick somewhere around that level but we all know it won't. Plan accordingly.

I think your reasoning it very good and I agree. I think it will be next year when Bitcoin hits $100,000 as it gains a share of the market that is currently held by gold and other similar investment types.

Guys, I just posted this answered in a topic & I thought it was to good not to share it with the community.

BTC could reach six figures this or next year.

I'll tell you why. BTC preoperties & utilities make it perhaps the best sound money history has ever known. What is keeping the price at this current level is the lack of knowledge & awareness of society in this matter. There is not much clarity & a lot of confusion. I think banks & the media are confusing the masses so they can win time & try to do something that can compete before it is to late. So they can retain power and control.

BTC competes directly with this 3 markets: metals like gold & silver ($10tr +), foreign currencies ($80tr +) & offshore banking ($40tr +).

It would only take a small % of one of this markets to make BTC rise to $100.000.- a coin (2 trillion market cap). Taking everything into account I see it as something very possible & easy to accomplish in the long term. So, don't stop the HODL. The current price is a bargain.

But guys, let me be clear. I don't want to ignite FOMO. Be very careful with your investments & don't put more money than you can. There is stil a possibility that everything can go to hell. No one knows. Im just talking theory here. Reality might be much more complex.

What do you guys think?