Topic: BTC created new ATH before Halving: are you surprised? (Read 616 times)

I also think this BTC "unusual incident" is coming from the BTC spot ETF when around 50B USD has flowed into this product in the past 2 months. The impact of the BTC spot ETF is large enough to change what we know about BTC over the past 10 years, but I believe that the most important property, cyclicality, of BTC will still be maintained so that we can be proactive in our investment plans in this market.

I don't have a clear price target for BTC at Halving, I think the higher the price, the better!

I tied the votes because I am also shocked of how bitcoin acted this month imagine breaking ATH before halving ? how in the world this happened ? of course because of the investors taking advantage of the Spot ETF and some added investors who is going with the flow now.
hope there will be at least 75k breaking before the halving.

Yeah, when it comes to influence then we can say that ETF did really give out that big part or influence with these current movements which it did really make out that kind of boost but of course we arent still
that in bull run yet which we do know that it would be always happening after the halving and seeing these current pump prices is the gradual increase of the market since we are really that heading on bull run market
on which it would really be just normal to assume that we would really be able to observe these gradual price rise. It is really just that good to look at that the price did break out those all time highs.

Get surprised? Its not surprising because anything could happen on this market on which on the time you do saw its impossible but it did really happen. This is why it would be
always best that you should secure your position before everything would go to the moon not only with Bitcoin but also in other coins as well.

I very much believe that until the halving we won't see any real bullrun, the current bullish trend is due to ETF heavily influenced by the fact that ETF right now managed 200,000 BTC and that causes lack of supply in the market same thing with ethereum but it just means a good omen that in the future after halving where scarcity become a real thing for bitcoin its gonna be getting better and better.
trust me we are just starting $100k is easy for bitcoin this time around too much good thing is happening that im sure in the future the market sentiment will become better and better and go towards bullish.

my take though, I think hold on the coin until at least $100k and get as much profit as you can.
Im doing this too in favour of me in the future who will definitely gonna be grateful for holding bitcoin for sufficient time. despite many people thinking of exiting this time around though I don't believe majority thinks that people are still bagging so hard right now.

This is not a surprise because you are right - when the price of bitcoin broke $60K, then people had hoped and predicted that a new ATH would be reached before the halving. Maybe this is a surprise for those who don't follow price movements and don't do analysis - but I don't really care about this and tend to choose to hold and continue accumulating.

It's just - I would say this is a blessing worth being grateful for. An ATH before a halving has never happened before - but it has happened this time. Many will continue to expect prices to get more expensive leading up to and after the halving - but it's best to keep your psychology from being influenced by the things that make you sell now.

Yes, I'm really surprised! I was expecting Bitcoin to hit a new ATH only after the halving, what means I was expecting to see what is happening right now only in the end of 2024, or maybe at the beginning of 2025. The market is moving faster than we expected and I think it's a general feeling many investors and adopters had, just like me.

However, I can't deny once more people who were procrastinating the day they would finally start investing in BTC have lost the opportunity. On that aspect, I'm not surprised, since we have been constantly seeing this happening bull season after bull season. People seem to never learn, as they keep buying on the top and selling on the dip... Anyway, I believe there is still room for further increasements in Bitcoin's price. People who buy for 70,000$ can still make some profit by selling it once the price hits the 100,000$-150,000$ mark, as many are predicting.

I'm optimistic we are going to head to those price levels soon, although I don't want to be too greedy to wait Bitcoin hit the 200,000$ zone or above. That would be too risky in my opinion, and I can't give myself the luxury of waiting another 4 years of my life to cashout some sweet profit once again in order to make some improvements in life.

I don't know, I don't think this is a surprise, even though this is the first time. The incremental price reached was $72,900, but then came down gradually and is currently around $71k. Some investors may have sold their bitcoin at a high price, but this is not wrong because basically the price will continue to fluctuate which they will most likely take advantage of. Buy now or sell is fine in my opinion, but it's better to hold because the potential for a high ATH is very likely to occur after the halving.

While I am not surprised, I think this is something like a first right? I am not sure. In the end, its just another tuesday, not really a big deal to me because when you are long term holding, making a new ATH before or after halving doesn't really change much. The hype in the market is lovely though, I always love it when people are super excited about stuff like these, it makes it a lot more fun to be around in the crypto world. I remember clearly when people didn't trusted any of this, and that caused a lot of trouble, now that I am looking at the market and see all these people having a lot of fun, it really makes me super happy to see so many happy people .

Sort of.

What kind of stage? Another ATH? Yes.

Not at all. Bitcoin's behavior every cycle changes and that's the dynamic of it. So, everytime we get close to the halving, its nature changes.

This is what you should really be having in mind on which you should have in mind on the time that you do step your foot into this market is that its never been that predictable and this is something that you should really be having in mind in the first place and we've been seen this market does have that different variations and there's no such thing about patterns. Yes, we could really be able to form up something like pattern but doesnt mean that it would be surely or 100% that will happen in future. Bitcoin never fails us to surprise when it comes into its price or value on which it would really be keeping on breaking new all time highs on every cycle.
Yes, its true that this time it do able to make it without still reaching up that halving event.

No one had expected that we would be able to reach up 70k+ on pre-halving period whereas this kind of situation had been projected or anticipated that this
could happen on post-halving period but well everything couldnt really be predicted as always.

Which government warns people to take advantage of opportunities? I'm really curious which governments support and urge people to invest in bitcoin at this time because if I remember correctly, there aren't too many governments that love bitcoin. Only influential people do this, but they have their own purposes, not sincere advice for everyone.

I remember when the ETFs were approved and bitcoin was dumped to $38k, many people complained, were disappointed and even cursed because bitcoin didn't rise as they expected. But suddenly bitcoin rebounded and created a new ATH before the halving in everyone's suspicion. So, I don't believe that if someone says they are not surprised or not too surprised that bitcoin reached ATH before halving, no one predicted the scenario where bitcoin would break history and make ATH before halving.

In fact, when the Bitcoin price reaches $60k, the potential to reach a new ATH before the Halving is very large. So, I think people expected that, although people were still surprised when the ATH was actually reached. I think this is the first time the price of bitcoin has reached ATH before the Halving occurred. This surprised many people because, by achieving ATH before the halving, the potential for a new ATH after the halving could be very high. I think, because of this basis, enthusiastic people are still buying bitcoin to this day. However, I think that there is still a possibility of bitcoin passing the current ATH before the halving occurs.

I will admit that I am quite shocked by what is happening, I knew the ETF approval was going to bring a lot of money to the market, and this could make the price of bitcoin to grow prior to the halving and reach higher levels than what it did during the previous cycles, but I was not really expecting for a new ATH to happen or for the 70k resistance level to be surpassed so fast, so at this point I need to reconsider my posture and wonder if bitcoin will surpass six figures before the year ends.

Ahhhh.... These sentiments sucks, firstly you haven't gone through my post from the view I was posting, in short, you just skipped everything making correction in your views by the same countered questions.

At the same time it might not be helpful for the other participants on the forum anymore so let's end, but still, I would say are you feeling Bearish or anyone else, let me know, and then I'll talk about it. For an idea of what I meant just consider the fear & greed in the market which represent the collective emotion of the crypto market based on the on-chain activity and developments, does It show two emotions at the same time it can be greedy at a time and it can fearful at a time because bullish, bearish, greedy and fearful emotions are calculated by how the market is behaving.

We don't make emotions try to understand, we get influenced by something that triggers them.

 

The market is full of surprises when traders and investors are influenced by FOMO. Remember that price fluctuations like this can be considered normal because awareness of bitcoin has increased over time, even governments have warned their people to take the opportunity, that's also what influencers do.

It's true that this is unprecedented in history, but it's not a big surprise when ETFs and halvings have both shaped investor confidence in bitcoin. There was a lot of money flowing in after the bitcoin ETF was approved, so I'm not too surprised by the ATH before the halving. I might have been very surprised had $100k been reached before the halving. But of course, congratulations to all holders.

You watch anime or hentai haha just kidding  well, I also used to watch anime, and yeah sometimes I also give late replies due to procrastination.This also means, the sentiments of someone being bearish and bullish are totally individually, and I do know that what causes these sentiments, you are talking about the cause, while I am talking about the emotions, the sentiments, of a person which are based on individuals. You might consider the market bullish due to your sentiments that the market has developed, but another person in the same market situation can have different market sentiments, which means he might be bearish.
Yeah, it will, because the market changes sentiments from time to time, thus traders and investors have to change accordingly. But please don't say BTC will fall back to $10k, as I don't think it will ever touch that target again.
What does insignificant mean here? Please shed light.

Now at 72k? Never that I find this to happen at least not in our present time as all of thread that has this kind of question as i denied giving positive responses maybe because I don't want myself to be frustrated once this not happen.
but now that this already happened? yeah i am very shock to think that in 2024 we will be recorded such occasion but yes lets congratulate each others who keeps their bitcoin intact since last year.
Not sure who are not educated when having this kind of increase?yeah it is indeed that there are  pumping happened every before halving but those are not breaking the ATH in which different from what had happened this time.
because Bitcoin broke ATH before halving .

The new ATH before the halving was a surprise for many people, but I think the price will continue to increase and will reach the real ATH. This is still the beginning, especially since the halving is just around the corner so we can follow price developments.
I am not too surprised to see the price can reach a new price, but I am impressed by the price movement, which can increase in a short time. Now, the price is still going up and down, and maybe another high price will be reached.
But it could be that before and after the halving, the price will be sideways for a while. And after a few weeks or months, there is a rise higher, and that's when a long rally for bitcoin will occur. Anything can happen so let's just wait and enjoy the journey.

Haha.. I was enjoying my day with some anime episodes still pending but the reply forced me to react, I was quite busy for the whole week with my laziness, but I was looking forward to posting every reply from throughout the week's mentions. let us start with you. First of all Bullish and Bearish are not individual sentiments these are the infected emotions from the market momentum, if Bitcoin falls by 10k today and starts consolidating haha your bullish vibe will get wiped out due to the social feedback and human psychology, no matter how logically strong your bullish sentiment was. 

So correct yourself with this, On the same time the Bitcoins supply was never considered a lot, its always treated as insignificant and the flow was just a matter of time (I mean distribution).


Perhaps it seems like you're consistently puzzled, but I can't quite grasp why we haven't had a satisfying discussion yet. It's as if I can't quite comprehend your current state. It's amusing to me because, knowing you personally, I sense a certain absent-mindedness lately.

Ah, I'm confident that if you take another look at the topic or simply reconsider the title, you'll find the answer to what I was discussing. As for your correction speculation, it seems you might be overestimating things here. After the halving of the production cost for Bitcoin, the correction might actually result in a higher figure than what you've mentioned. The maximum we might revisit now is in the range of 55k to 60k. Even that seems high considering the current developments. I don't foresee any significant dips coming our way soon. So, logically speaking, let's stand firm at 60k.

For someone that haven’t been here for long or haven’t been following up with the Bitcoin price, I’m not surprised at the recent development. One notable thing about patterns is that, it’s subject to changes and these changes should be accepted as a new order. Not like anyone could do something about it but, if one believes or accepts the market to be a partially unpredictable environment and Bitcoin to be very volatile, then we could as well accept the fact that, patterns would not be maintained. While this might be the first of its kind, breaking of its all time high and creating a new high just before the halving, it would be a new norm to the realms of possible occurrences in the market.
Factors that could result in this is;

The more popular nature of Bitcoin at this time,
The expectation of the halving, with the occurrence just weeks away,
The tons of investors pitching their tent to take advantage of what was known etc,

It’s definitely something to smile at and take advantage of.

Yeah, being bullish and bearish is totally an individual sentiment and how they perceive the market, how much knowledge he/she has, according to that, a person makes predictions. I am bullish because I have very little knowledge of the market, but I think I am right because the market is bullish (no doubt of that) as its bull run, and we might see small dumps but for a temporary time. I also don't care about the supply because I read somewhere that, the supply which looked a lot back in time now looks too short for the whole market. I also have the same POV.

I don't have any knowledge about ETF approval, I mean are there any other BTC ETFs are in the pending state, or are you talking abut ETH's ETFs? You did not clarify on that. And talking about regulatory policy, I also don't have any information that makes me worry. By the way how much correction are you expecting from the market. Many are saying BTC can touch $40k or $45k (including me) do you think it can go that low. I don't think in real.

To be honest initially I never thought Bitcoin well reach new all time high before halving and I was expecting your market correction but when Bitcoin cross the price of $55000 that's when I got home that we may see a new all time high before halving and this made me realise that Crypto is too volatile to assume that history will repeat. Regardless this is a good news for all that we have seen new ATH before halving and this must push price even further.

Honestly I am not surprised, yeah it is a surprise in the sense that we are talking about something that would not be all that easy to handle. I think we should be considering all these new things to be all normal. What is unexpected is expected in the crypto world and that should be something that will take a while for most people. I feel like it has to be all the normal things in the end.

I understand that it is going to shock a lot more people but if we could make it work then we could just cause it to be normal eventually. Like maybe it happened this time, and it will happen every time from now on. This is why we should not really be shocked anymore, we should be considering this to be normal eventually. Many things will become normal.

BTC price setting a new price before halving may seem as a surprise but we need to understand that it was expected in the sense that after Spot Bitcoin ETFs was approved, every one was hopeful that the price of Bitcoin would reach a certain milestone since a lot of investors developed interest in Bitcoin after knowing that they would get access to Bitcoin spot prices directly without having to buy.

It is surprising because after the ETFs were initially approved we didn’t see the kind of pump many were expecting. The price even started to dip for a while and people were saying the ETF was overhyped. Rather than having an immediate effect, it turned out to be a delayed reaction. After the initial selloff, interest in the ETFs has started picking up which has caused the price to explode.

Why did I missed this one lol , another ATH last 17 hours ago ? I hate myself for not   having a chance to sell some percent as this is my target price selling .
but maybe this is indication that I need to wait for higher price than just selling small faction of my coins instead in 100k to be all.
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Surprised and up to now still , twice ATH breaking before halving? market is really acting crazy nowadays.

I was unsure what to vote - 2 or 3 - and I'll tell you why.

The ETF approval was somewhat a surprise, although not that much, the pressure is accumulating for a lot of time. And it's about big money, hence big influence in political decisions. After ETF being approved, the only surprise could have been the magnitude of the drop afterwards, not the quick recovery and ATH afterwards. Again, it's about huge amounts of money here.

But I could have been voting 3, because imho, in the grand scheme of things, this is pretty much just noise and best is to stack sats and hodl.



PS. The price may still go wildly up and down. Try to not get surprised by that. After all, it's still the bitcoin markets

Honestly, I'm surprised, there's no other explanation to what happened when I saw it, I expected bitcoin to take it's time before breaking the previous all time high but it didn't and it's a really awesome thing that bitcoin defied my lowly expectations that it's going to go down again but it is what it is and it seems that I'm almost at the point that I'm going to be seeing the profits of my investments. Maybe it's time for me to accumulate even more because there's no other way besides the fact that I would either be missing out or I'm going to spend more if I don't increase what I'm currently buying with my bitcoin right now with my DCA. I'm feeling a little crazy about the price pump right now and I like to increase my selling price goal because there doesn't seem to be a lot of indicators of the prices going up to be stopping soon, we might even touch 100k USD possibly in the next month.

New ATH created before Bitcoin halving is of course surprising to everyone. Every bitcoin holder now has a lot of success in his investment. I have not been able to raise very large investments but I have had great success with the amount I have raised. Creating new ATH before the Bitcoin halving brings with it a better future signal. We know that Bitcoin halving is not much longer, few months after the halving, the bull season will start in the market and the price will increase a lot. Now if the price of bitcoin is between $70k to $80k and after the halving the bull season will surely cross $100k to $170k. So hold bitcoin investment and try to increase the investment only then you will be more successful.

Yes today again it broke ATH and touched $70K while at the same time ETH touched $4K. Since these are both important psychological numbers we knew there would be a pullback and we got one.

Lots of shorts were liquidated when we broke up and then lots of longs were liquidated on the way down. For the rest of the day it just traded sideways.

Most likely on Monday we will see some movement and perhaps a crack again at the $70K figure.

Not that big of a surprise, but was still a surprise. Sure if it was a sudden increase like in the span of a week it went from 50k to 69k, but there were obvious telltale signs that Bitcoin was going up with no signs of stopping for like a month or two. At that point, it was pretty hard to assume that it wasn't going to hit ATH before the halving, especially if you consider how it again, broke through 60k and had no signs of stopping it's growth (or even just steadying it). Though I was on the side where it was going to go steady after that 60k mark tbf.

Well, I guess people learned about what happened in the last pattern and had huge expectations. That and the ETF, which most likely had a big effect compared to what most people saw (which took some time really).

Bitcoin again created a new ATH albeit narrowly at $70,083.05. What is happening is to be expected. When the price approaches resistance like this, the moment it reaches the figure it goes back down because many sell orders are triggered. But I am an optimist and I believe that the buying pressure will make the price go up like crazy very soon. Next stop, the $100K (although it is not going to be a straight line from $70K to $100K).

Definitely a surprise but it's not a showstopping kind of surprise, bitcoin didn't waver at the start of January and it's prices until now just continuously gone up without a sign of decline so that's what I've felt about that event happening to bitcoin, we all got to be ready though as bitcoin has never had a black swan event yet and it's going to be a mess if you're not prepared for that so if you're investing right now, make sure that you're doing DCA rather than buying bitcoins in droves, it would be a bad idea if suddenly the price dumps and you have no money to buy during that price dump, DCA and go all out in investing once the prices goes down which it inevitably does but only invest what you can afford to lose so you're not making yourself go hungry and getting late in rent because you've invested everything.

Do you want to say that without the FTX crash, we would have entered a super cycle and the market would no longer be as cyclical as it was in the past? I personally think that the market decline in 2022 is inevitable, the collapse of Terra and FTX are just consequences of the downtrend and make the situation worse, but they are not the main cause of crypto winter.

The market always has its own very reasonable narratives: the hack of Mt. Gox in 2014, the collapse of Bitconnect ponzi in 2018 and Terra + FTX in 2022. I believe that the market has its own behavior, and the cycle will still repeat and I hope the peak of this cycle will come in 2025 

I guess everything has a first? I haven't check the history of Bitcoin, but if it is true then maybe we will see this pattern in the next cycle or it could indicate that this bull run could be very different as well as compare to the previous one.


Possible, although it dip as obviously short term investors took that route to sell and get their profits. So there is a huge liquidation in the last 24 hours, not just Bitcoin but the whole crypto space. But it's back to it's normal again, Bitcoin hitting $66k and then possible next move is $70k. Still, the moonboys are inside the market.

Haha, that's weird anyway it's up to you what you find bullish and bearish, For the deadlines I meant by some ETF approvals, and some other regulatory policy clarification, TBH for MT GOX and the unlock supply I don't really care about it, because there's already a huge lack of supply for accumulation, Haha on that short time even if 100k Bitcoins starts flowing a very short-frame dump is possible.

There are many numbered speculations in market for the March but this week is bullish afterwards a healthy correction is expected.

hmm, it's surprising that your words also looks bullish to me haha, because it's already new ATH, BTW what was the previous ATH, it was around  $67,567 (let's round off it to $68k) and the current ATH is $69,170 which to me is not a big target. Well, your words are also expressing your bullish turn now hehe. BTW what deadlines are you talking about, maybe the ones for MT gox payment, or the selling of BTC from the US government? If that's so then is it possible that if people will start to sell their BTC?

The market can consume them without impacting the demand and supply ratio in a negative way. I think it is possible because once more ETFs are approved, as the company already had future ETFs approved, then spot and now they are applying for option ETFs also. I think if they are approved more funds can be consumed into these companies and we might not see big impact from the selling of these BTC, because if they will sell, it is possible for the companies that they will buy it.

While I was waiting for the effect of Bitcoin spot ETF recently but ever that I expected
the price will reach this high.
creating ATH before the halving? damn this never happened before in the whole History
of bitcoin so how come that ow we are seeing this hype.
what I was waiting now is that how much will this run ends before the halvigng?
or will it continue to grow till last quarter.

I am so surprised with bitcoin can created the new all time high price before halving time left one month later, usually the new highest price of bitcoin near future with halving or few days after halving time coming.
I have prediction before with difficulty of bitcoin price after ETF approval announcement and seems not easily for raising up to new higher price before halving time arrive.

Yesterday bitcoin have touched the new higher price and halving time left one month later, will see any possibilities of bitcoin get the new higher price before halving? I think more close opportunity how easily bitcoin recovery after few percent correction with bigger chance to make new other all time high price maybe raise more than $70k.

I'm not surprised at all. Yes, this is the 1st time it's price is getting this high, but Bitcoin has the potential to get this high and even go higher.

Predictions already said it'll get over 100 - 500k between 2024 and 2025. So, I believe it'll keep on going up and up and until it reaches these prices and properly even surpasses it... Digital currency is the future and it's starting to show how much potential it has.

Yeah we all assumed it wouldn’t until the halving. In the past it always broke ath a few months after the halving, we assumed this would be no different.

Another difference this time around is that the etfs weren’t a sell the news event which marked the top. Back in 2017 the CME futures marked the top, then in 2021 both the coinbase ipo launch and the bitcoin etf which tracked futures also marked the top. We assumed this would be no different but we were all wrong.

I’m surprised because on the face it seems like this is something that hasn’t been done before. However, once you understand that the market was artificially depressed due to Sam Bankman-Fried’s nonsense fraud, you realize that it isn’t that surprising. Just imagine that the FTX collapse didn’t happen and Bitcoin hit $135K last cycle if you want the pattern and the behavior we’re seeing now to make sense.

I am a little surprised, because after how disappointing this cycle has been I didn't expect the price to be so high now. However, the fact that the ATH has been minimally beaten does not mean anything to me, because until it is clearly beaten I do not consider it beaten. If we take inflation into account, in real terms it would not have been beaten.

It will surely take a few more attempts to clearly pass the $70K barrier, which is when I will consider the previous ATH actually beaten.

Before the halving, Bitcoin historically has big price volatility, pumps and crashes. We just have about 15% correction before a halving that is needed for the market to reset.

Gamblers with overzealous leverages must be washed out of the market, to clean the market, and it is a necessary preparation for a halving and big parabolic bull run after that. I am optimistic to see the correction finally happened because the market will be more easily pumped from here.

Market now is bigger than in 2013 and price on site like Coinmarketcap, Coingecko is averaged price and they have own formulas for price calculation.

Because it is the average number, it is not important to say what is a highest price of Bitcoin. ATH needs to be much higher than 2021 all time high and it means nothing if a new all time high is only $50 or $100 or $200 higher than 2021 ATH.

It can play roles for psychology of market participants but the bull run is only started. Higher highs will be seen soon in coming months of 2024 and 2025.

I don't understand why there are some people who voted for "I'm really surprised because this has never happened in history"
Because this is not the first time in history we have experienced this, where we experienced a massive pump before the Bitcoin block halved.

Usually the price pumps before a halving event. This time with the increased demand from ETFs it makes sense that Bitcoin has a pretty big bull run.
In general, most people are not educated enough about the halving event. But the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the Bitcoin halving are buzz words that drove the price up earlier in the week.
Over time however, your graph shows how the bull run of each halving event is reducing in multiplier.

not all exchanges all hit the ATH, nor at same moment.
couple years a go one exchange did hit above $69k whilst majority hung around the ~$68.5k average

so although then and now had a final top bidder above $69k most of people round down/up given enough time, reason, excuses

it dont matter what one exchange records. as exchanges have always recorded their own prices both now and before.. its more of the social sentiment plus passage of time, of what people end up rounding things to and that becomes the narrative.

EG
did you know after the 2013 ATH, the correction actually went below $100 due to MTGox closed deals. yet if you check any of the "historic" price charts the social sentiment that designed the charts ignores the depths MTGox landed at on its closing, (meaning they excluded the lows MTGox recorded)

same went for the 2021 high. some went above $69k but on average of multiple exchanges of $68.5k most just say $68500 for social sentiment
and given time, some will round todays top too

In as much as I expected something like this ro happen, I didn't expect it will be in thia magnitude because the ATH had appeared too far away from the price is was as at a month or two ago, currently it's more like Bitcoin did 100% it's price within two months, from $37k to $69k, I think this is been caused by the effects of the recent happenings around Bitcoin which is triggering all this market effects because this year, so far Bitcoin seems to have received more adoption than it has ever received in previous years, it has as well received more adoption by some othe countries and others still thinking of further adoption aswell.

There's definitely going to be a correction before the halving because if it has been able to guy the ATH before the halving it means there was a trigger and it's definitely going to be corrected and Bitcoin will get back to its price that will birth the bull market after the halving.

Somehow but when the ETFs were approved, that's the signal of it.

Yep, reaching the ATH even before the halving.

Why would I? This is like a normal thing when there are good news prior to the halving but not a halving focused demand. Maybe it's hard to get it but the pump that we get doesn't have to do with the halving and obviously came from the ETFs.

I would say it is still related to the halving period. Yes most of this pumping is associated to the ETF approved which had many investors to bag more bitcoin but decision also was shaped by the upcoming halving, most of the traders will have actually invested because they think that with bitcoin halving coming and an almost guaranteed bull run after it, they will think Lowest they can get bitcoin will be before the halving and That’s probably why they choose to invest early.

Another reason could be associated with the fact that there more adopted people currently on bitcoin and the awareness of bull run and other bitcoin events have spread more than In the past and as such many have taken a position already, which is different to former halving events.

Not much of a surprise I think, and halving could be just one of many factors, the ETF I guess also impacting the market, and more world leader seems like supporting Bitcoin. The thing is the difference of this new ATH and the previous ATH is not that much, and it now Bitcoin price already got some correction. This could be bad, and with very little different of that current and previous ATH I think the resistance will be quite strong for the price to break the new ATH.

This is absolutely correct, just like the 24-hour price pump of $69,000, which captured most exchanges and was recorded on the coin tracker. 
 
Some exchanges picked the price at $69,100 and above, which was the ATH before it started dropping back right now, which I believe is part of the price correction. 
 
But while removing some part of the price that has already been recorded, Are the figures not compatible enough for them to record them on the exchange, or is something restricting them from doing that?

Hmm, Surprising that you are bullish dude haha because it's a new ATH already and you are expressing your Bullish turn now hehe, Anyway it's totally up to you that you make your market moves. ATH's are always surprising and 150k is not a big deal according to the current momentum I'm expecting a great rise again after May reason some deadlines. At the same time, there's still time to go beyond the 100k, and by the end of 2024 100k will be a little surprising because I'm expecting an 80k to 90k potential gain by the end of the year, At the same time 2025 might bring the optimistic target of 150k+.

Who knows what's gonna happen, still these are some of my instincts.

No, I'm not surprised because I was sure enough that BTC reaches a new ATH in March to May after seeing the buying pressure that the Bitcoin had due to those ETFs. It's just the beginning, we may see price correction but after that I'm quite sure we will see another such rally. Previously, I was thinking that Bitcoin would cross $100k when bull run gets intensity but now I think that Bitcoin could possibly reach $120k or even cross it when bull run reaches its full intensity. A new ATH before the bear run starts would be anywhere from $120k to $140k or even more than that.

Bitcoin made me surprised by rising and rising before and after Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals but the new all time high is not too convincing. Bitcoin just has its correction immediately after hitting that price.

I really waited for a correction of Bitcoin and finally it comes, but honestly I expect it to happen sooner than today, start at lower price.

Unfortunately, with a correction after making a new all time high, it looks not good as price returns to only below $60,000. Assume the price in OP is a new all time high, on Binance I see it hits only $69,000.

About a year ago I figured it could very well hit the ATH, or at least come close to it, like getting back to $60k, by the time of the halving. But then as of this Fall when it was still only in the mid-to-high $30,000s I figured it'd take until the summer to break the ATH.

Then the ETFs got approved and TradFi started nonstop piling into Bitcoin, and here we are with the ATH taken down suddenly with a month and a half before the halving. Been a pretty great last 14 months for Bitcoin from $16k to $69k!

That's a common misconception based on Marx's Labor Theory of Value, which has been mostly rejected by modern economists.

Anyway, the fact that the bull run to an ATH has started long before the halving in every case strongly indicates that it is unrelated to the halving process.

Now, not so much surprised, the price has been leaning towards going above the ATH for weeks now. But in general it comes as another shock that this cycle has come with.

A lot of events before now has signalled that Bitcoin is getting into a new phase and now more than before, past events can deviate from future actions. What we don't know is how much deviation to expect.

Not worried. Change is constant.

- Jay -

when people notice a previous pattern. and to many do.. they all start pre planning that pattern and thus end up breaking the pattern

also the ETF changed the paradigm too, although now the market is reacting by bringing the price down to not cause too much breakage from the pattern

oh and the top price was actually a little higher than $69k in 2021, but the average of exchanges just classed it as a 2021 rounded number of $69k
so its not a complete break of the pattern

Yes, I was surprised by this event but not when it made a new ATH, as when BTC made $62k I then realized BTC would definitely cross the previous ATH. Now I am wondering what will happen to the BTC price after the halving event. I hope it will be a surprising event as well. I assume BTC will easily cross $100k and many say it has the potential to cross $150k. And just because of this event, I am bullish.
Yes, I think this signals a new stage in BTC history, as this never happened before so I think this will be a monumental event for BTC. As I said before BTC will outperform our expectations once again. I hope things will not go sideways, if they go, then those who are bullish on it will lose more, while bear will earn a hell lot of money.
No, that's because nothing has changed, besides ATH, and that's due to the ETF, and in pas ETF has never been approved, and there has been no such level of hype, that's why BTC made a new ATH. And after halving as according to cyclical nature of BTC, it will make new ATH.

2017-18 peak - 20k
Bear market lows <16k.

How is that not dipping lower?

I am surprised by the pump, but maybe the cycles are changing. There's too many first times all of a sudden.
We had a covid black swan event in 2020, for the first time.
We had a very weak bull marker with only 3.5x raise from the all time high, for the first time.
And finally, the long and deep bear market that took us below all time highs and far below the 200 week MA.

Maybe this bull market is just an indicator of a shift? Or maybe this is a double peak that's coming, like in 2013?

BTC reached a new ATH of 69,170.63 USD today, marking a significant moment in its history. This is a surprising development, as BTC has traditionally never reached a new ATH before the halving event.

BTC halving is an event built into Bitcoin's code that cuts the reward for mining new BTC in half, roughly every four years. This happens because the halving is triggered at a specific number of mined blocks (around 210,000)^[1], and with an average block creation time of 10 minutes, it works out to roughly four years between halvings.

In simpler terms, Halving reduces miners' income, causing the minimum BTC mining cost to roughly double. This means that for miners to maintain their pre-halving income, the BTC price would also need to roughly double. This is considered one of the driving forces behind the historical price increases of BTC observed after each Halving event^[2]. It may contribute to the roughly 4-year cycle observed in both BTC and the broader crypto market, similar to some traditional markets. I believe this cyclical pattern might have been part of Satoshi's calculation when creating Bitcoin.

I believe that BTC history can be segmented into distinct periods. The first period, spanning from its genesis block mined on January 3rd, 2009^[3], to the third halving event on May 11th, 2020, exhibits unique characteristics:

• Singular ATH: a period witnessed a single, prominent ATH, suggesting a distinct price discovery phase.
• Bounded Bear Markets: Subsequent bear markets never dipped lower than the prior cycle's peak, potentially indicating a rising price floor.
• Pre-Halving Stagnation: New ATHs consistently emerged after halving events, suggesting a price increase pattern tied to block reward reduction.
• Fib retracement at Halving: The BTC price at each halving appears to gravitate towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding downtrend.

Due to the consistent properties mentioned earlier, predicting the first stage is generally straightforward.


The second stage, however, presents a more intricate picture. While it may have begun around May 11th, 2020, coinciding with Halving 3, there are some key deviations from the previous cycle:

• Double-peaked ATH: ATH took the form of a double peak, occurring in both April and November of 2021.
• Deeper crypto winter: The current crypto winter's bottom point sits lower than the prior cycle's peak, reaching 15.5K USD in November 2022 compared to 19.8K USD in December 2017.
• Early new ATH: Notably, a new ATH emerged today, before the Halving 4.
• Uncertain Halving price: The BTC price at the time of this halving remains undetermined, with the possibility of exceeding the previous cycle's ATH.

While I'm impressed by BTC's new ATH, as a non-technical investor, I'm cautious about this deviation from historical cycles. In 2021, I successfully timed the market by selling in November-December based on cyclical patterns. This time, however, the uncertainty is higher. The next peak for BTC could be in November 2025, but an earlier ATH in 2024 followed by a crypto winter in 2025 is also a possibility. Predicting this accurately is difficult, and more data is needed for a clearer picture.

I want to know your views on BTC reaching a new ATH before the Halving:

• Are you surprised by this event?
• Do you think this signals a new stage for BTC history?
• Are you worried that this event will disrupt the market's cyclical nature and future predictability?

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References:
[1] What Is Bitcoin Halving? Definition, How It Works, Why It Matters
[2] Bitcoin Halving 2024: How It Works and Why It Matters
[3] How and when did Bitcoin start? The complete Bitcoin history