I'm sure what's available on the surface as far as this particular case is concerned is only a very small portion of the entire picture. I'm certain the US has sufficient knowledge of whatever Vinnik knows and has. I suspect this has something to do with Russia finally giving up on Ukraine.
Vinnik might be a peace offering.
It's equally interesting knowing the other prisoner who's swapped with Vinnik, an old man, a school teacher who's arrested in possession of a small amount of medically-prescribed marijuana. The math isn't mathing here. A Russian prisoner said to be in possession of almost $8 billion in Bitcoin, involved in big crimes, is swapped with an old teacher? And Trump calling the deal "very fair"?
Earlier, when asked what the US has given up in exchange for Marc Fogel, the response was "not much", the release was a show of good faith, "we were treated very nicely by Russia", and the like.
[1] This is the kind of deal whose real details ordinary people can only speculate.
[1]
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-envoy-secures-release-american-marc-fogel-russia-2025-02-11/