Topic: BTC halvings 2012 to 2024 and mining relation (Read 88 times)

Price change if there are more people willing to buy at current price than people willing to sell at current price. Thats the only driving force that move price. The fact that some miners won't be profitable if price won't pump will not make the price to pump. It will only make them quit mining making other miners more profitable (via lower hashrate). And thats my point here. That network will have to show that it can survive the fact that 93% of coins is already minted and the remaining 7% needs to be enough to secure it for next decades.

I believe that everything will be fine and the fees will cover the difference, because bitcoin adoption is still growing, but playing against the horde that blindly believes in halving cycles and fueling the marketing machine with FUD related to the scenario I described seems too good to not be used.

I will try to do the calculations on the last 3 blocks. The fees are currently a little high, but in general we can say that:

• 819905: block reward + fees = 8.376 BTC
• 819904: block reward + fees = 8.323 BTC
• 819903: block reward + fees = 8.09 BTC

Each block will be worth $351USD, so after halving and after increasing the fees, you will notice that the price needs to rise to maintain a profitable average for mining each block.
even the change from 6.25 to 3.125, the price will need to change strongly to maintain a profitable mining average. If we move the topic to the mining board, we will get more accurate numbers, but halving still has an effect, and perhaps even after two halvings there will be an effect.

Yes, I agree with you that if people use Bitcoin and new Bitcoin utilities are created (e.g. smart counters), the network will defend itself and hashrate will continue to increase in the long run. The fee will cover the difference between halvings. Which doesn't change the fact that, in my opinion, halving no longer affects the price from fundamential point of view, it's only the hype that does it, and playing against the hype is a scenario for another "big short" movie. Setting up a marketing machine to spread FUD will definitely make it easier, and in my opinion we may see such a scenario soon. This is not the most likely scenario, but it is definitely possible and carries great potential profit for the whales.

Price will be affected by many factors, not only halvings and block subsidy. Many factors that are unpredictable like adoption and regulation for Bitcoin and Bitcoin market.

Thinking that price will always rise and double or repeat ROI of previous cycles is unrealistic and even doing average of ROIs from previous cycles will not be enough to have a good price prediction.

I believe that Bitcoin will have a trend of shrinking ROI with time and with each halving but even so I still really believe that Bitcoin will be the best investment by considering ROI it brings and how safer it is than other cryptocurrencies.

https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart

I think that this will correspond to the amount of change in block reward in exchange for transaction fees, as each block that is mined will produce an extra percentage as transaction fees. If the block’s reward percentage is much higher than the fee percentage, then halvings will be severely affected.
After many halvings, the accounts will become as follows:



Then the effect of the 4 years will be almost non-existent because the transaction fees are what will fuel the price and the price increase will be linked to market factors of supply and demand.

Thats the most importnat factor about halvings:



Do you all really think that 94% supply will start growing like crazy based on how the remaining 6% is distributed in the following years? The first halving reduced inflation 25% to 12%. It was a big change. 2024 halving will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from 1.5% to 0.7% (who cares??).
Each subsequent halving has a smaller impact on the price, and today I will put forward an interesting thesis and we will see how it ages. Here it is:

"halving cycles will soon reverse (maybe in 2028 or even 2024). The price around the halving will fall (not pump) because FUD will appear (probably baseless) about -if the network will be able to cope with the fact that 1% of the supply (mining rewards) secures 99% of the supply. Then there will be FUD related to the slower_growing/falling hashrate for more than X months (so far 6-7 month is the longest period)"

quote for showing images


Is what you read correct or are there errors in your calculations because I believe that the price of 93k as the highest price for the current Bitcoin cycle is considered very far from the expectations that indicate that we will cross 100k quickly.
I read the previous prediction about 2021 and the result was very excellent.

Comparing the halvings.

This is an expanded version of a post from the tertius993 (OP) price guessing thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/comparing-bitcoin-halvings-2012-to-2020-and-now-looking-ahead-to-2024-5375808 tertius993 (OP)

Here are csv files that I promised to share. One compares miner machines profitability (this file does not include transaction profitability) and another file shows halving-related info. https://filetransfer.io/data-package/gIQoMlUU#link

1) Miners will continue competing with each over as long as bitcoin block rewards exist in adequate amount (I will talk about it later), as will hashrate increase automatically.

2) Comparing the price at halving with the miner machines profitability a few months before 2020 and a few months before 2016. The revenues were from (7.5 or 10.5) in 2016 (few months before 2016 halving) and (8.5 to 9.5) in 2020 (few months before halving).
I found characteristics of 3 new bitmain miners that are going to be released next February (a few months before 2024 halving), to make their revenue look like (8.5 to 9.5) 2020's and taking into account the prediction of hashrate (600EH/s) the price at 2024 halving should be around 30000$ per 1 btc. Potentially, the problem might be that generally mining machines reaching maximum performance ability. Because the performance growth is logarithmic. The amount of transistors they include shall have a limit somewhere close enough. It might be that we never see any machines greater than 600 TH/s per 3000 W. Or mine using only solar/nuclear electricity.

3) If you take a look at "relative increase" row in the "halving.csv". The price at halving and price at high had relative increases x103 (2012 halving to high in 2013), x30 (2016 halving to high in 2017), x8 (2020 halving to high in 2021) and this relative increase was falling t0 22%-25% of the previous increase. Having said that, the relative increase of (2024 halving to high in 2025) shall be around x1.8 to x2. Which does not look good. Meaning that the lower price we get at halving, the lower it will be in 2025 high. I better be mistaken at 2)!

4) My projections for future: The hashrate must decrease in following 2028 halving (1.5625 reward), it cannot be always increasing due to the block reward. Either bitcoin price shall be huge or amount of transactions shall be huge. I state, in future "small" miners
 will disappear and only biggest miners will stay. If some new miners will try to come to the system, the price will drop to flush new comers away. So, in the future there is going to be a top, ceiling price at which point only big miners will have enought profit to satisfy their operation, but small miners will always cause the price to drop.

5) Too many miners. New miners->more hashrate (because of share of power per 1 single mining machine. The more share of all hashpower you have, the greater is your share of reward). To satisfy new miners, the price goes up, I do not why btc system wants so many miners. The fact that, more miners result in price growth.

6) To decrease the hashrate and increase self reward, you need to throw out other miners, to decrease hashrate you need to decrease the price. To decrease the price you need to sell a lot what you have gained. As we approach 2032 halving when rewards decrease to 0.78 (if number of transactions are the same) new miners need to be kicked out to make the system survive.

7) To avoid 6) world shall integrate bitcoin as official payment method, then the number of transactions will increase (I think it was the original idea of bitcoin right? to have btc as payment method worldwide) Then the system will not die. The system dies after some time when miners' profits go below zero.


Lets image a world has accepted btc as official payment method between people. At some point number of transactions stabilize, making the number of miners also to stabilize, since new amount of miners will make rewards less, and if you do not increase your personal power you start losing. It means actually that network hashrate can approach infinity, as your mining equipment growth shall also approach infinity, otherwise you drop mining. In this case when world accepts btc as payment method, the hash rate can grow approaching infinity as long as you are backed up by transactions that people in the world do.

To sum up. IN contrary, in scenario if we do not accept btc as a global payment method, to keep the system alive you need to either drop hashrate (by selling a lot of btc to drop the price to kick out miners) or you need to grow the price to approach infinity. Additionally, I cannot say what price will be at halving, it is early to drop the market and drop the miners. So we shall expect a greater price than 30K$ at day of halving, it might be twice as less as what will be at day of high in 2025. If we say 150K at high, then halving is 75K. Vice versa when we be in April 2024. We can guess the HIGH in 2025.