Topic: #btc Hashrate Reach New ATH a day ago, will the bull run has begun? (Read 419 times)

You took it the wrong way around. It’s not the hashrate that goes up and then people buy, it's people buy and hashrate goes up. The question here is this; if the miners are once again starting their machines up and mining at a peak level, does that mean there are a lot of buyers that make it worthwhile for miners to do that?

Miners won't do it to just make it look cool and break the highest level, they do it because it's profitable, and if it is profitable to go that high, that means is there a lot more buying pressure coming up. I believe it’s not right now, but it’s getting closer and miners are getting ready for that, it does make sense in the long run.

This theory makes sense if the Bitcoin market was dominated by the Bitcoin miners. I believe that the Bitcoin market is dominated by the traders, not by the miners.
I'm sure that 90% of the Bitcoin traders don't care about the hashrate, but I'm also sure that remaining 10%, who actually care about the hashrate would see this hashrate ATH as a positive signal(I wouldn't say bullish).
The Bitcoin Core blockhain is in good health and this is good news. We just have to survive the crypto winter (and the potential global recession) without panicking and everything will the fine.

Regardless of being a newcomers you should still try to use your own logic after reading other people's posts regardless of their rank. In this case there is a connection between hashrate and price but hashrate follows the price not the other way around. That's what was said in other posts too.

I think the hash rate might be one indicator that tokens are moving, but the best indicator for me is the trading volume on the global Exchanges, because that is where the "Bull run" are triggered. The movement of coins on Exchanges does not happen on the Blockchain, but rather on an internal database on these Exchanges.

There are also a "trigger event" just before a major Bull run... and I have not noticed anything in the media that can be a "trigger" for a Bull run.

I've read some posts from senior above with average told no connection between hash rate and price. So I'm a newcomer of course will believe and follow what they said. I also have considerations to do not just buy, and blindly in the market because of wrong belief, I will research again in what the best decision I have to make is.

In the end, it's far more likely and makes far more sense that the hashrate will follow the price, rather than the price following hashrate.

Obviously the bull run has not yet begun. Bitcoin until now has not yet even escaped from the strong gravitational pull of $19,000. The price has really found it hard to return to $20,000. It has been moving under $20,000 for some time now. And even if it quickly touches $20,000, it also loses it immediately. So even with that hash rate reaching another ATH, the price didn't react. It is therefore suggesting that hash rates do not really signal for a significant price movement.

If there are miners who want to accept all the higher costs, lower revenues and if they have assessed that they can survive another 24 months of this bear market, who can argue against that? Also, they need to be quite certain that the bull market will return in 24 months.

History can repeat itself so it's possible that your thoughts are true and this increase in hashrate can be a good sign that the bull run is going to start. Before btc creates a new ath, it will first recover back to its old ath.

Hashrate maybe all about btc's ecosystem but an increase in hashrate could give people a confidence to join btc if they haven't yet or invest more if they are an existing user because they think btc network is now more stronger and now more secure than before. An increase in hashrate could also mean that there are now more btc transactions going on. Existing number of miners can't handle the pressure so there is a need for new miners.

Who else but Quagmire!!Franky!
Oh, and btw, I already know his comeback story, in his imagination, every miner with an s19 (not even talking about the guys till mining with s9) has dumped their gear, and they now mine with the latest and most efficient gear, that despite the fact that before that he stated the same once more, so taking into account the time passed nobody would have made an ROI on those and they are already dumping them and buying new ...because that's how running a business looks for some!
Oh sorry, that's how bankruptcy looks like a real business for some!


I run into this article on the difficulty speculation thread:

TLDR: prices for electricity are so high and revenue so low mining gear is still sealed up in the boxes they've arrived and we have at least 300k of those, assuming the lowest price is 6 million in gear, 30 exahashes at least! It's nearly the worse period for revenue, just one tiny step till October '20, and it might not be that long till we cross it which means we will soon peak in difficulty if the prices don't move.

LOL! 

No matter what you believe, franky will keep repeating the same nonsense about "minimum mining bottoms", "minimum mining costs", "minimum value", etc. No matter how many times I've argued with him, he keeps saying the same fucking stuff.

I think you're confused. ATH in difficulty is pretty much the opposite of an opportunity for a miner.

This could be result of next halving cycle thats coming close day by day. It might be that various farms are restarting themselves and adding up the power of "lost china" miners when it was banned recently and full operations were closed down. That is pretty big difference which was balanced out by rest of the world miners, however it seems slowly they are building back with other miners. Every miner knows this is amazing opportunity to gain more coins in the wallet as they reach to the another halving cycle and thus aftermath is risen prices. This is helpful for them to profit the most during the high tide wave and keep the mining operations running smoothly. It's really a tug of war, the more we go ahead in the time, the higher hashrates would be there.

Agreed. This also causes a decrease in revenue, higher costs and lower efficiency. The weakest miners will be forced to shutdown, take a loan or hope that there will be someone similar to CZ to bail them out.

We cannot be certain how long this high hashrate can be maintained but we can be quite certain it will fall slowly unless bitcoin pumps. However, if the increase continues while the price is falling, we can begin speculating that some of those mining farms are being supported financially or some of them might be stealing electricity hehehe.

Hashrate increase has no reason to drive the price up. People don't really care how much hashrate Bitcoin has as long as its enough to deter attacks. Adding more and more security has diminishing returns past certain point, and security is just one of the factors that influence Bitcoin's value. So, I don't see any way how can a hashrate increase trigger anything that can count as a bull run.

Oh really, 15k?
But, but, there was one guy called franky1 who said that during the first part of the year at 200Exa the cost is impossible to go below 28k...



Since you obviously know what you're talking about can you do me a favor and teach this guy who I've quoted above to keep his mouth shut when it comes to mining costs or mining price or anything related to mining as it's clear with every post he makes every month that he has zero clues what he's talking about?

And he kept on babbling about the minimal cost from 40k to 35 k to 30k to 25k...and he keeps on babbling , he just can't stop

when the hashrate was in the 220exa region at the first half of the year. the mining cost bottom was about $15k


now that its 50% more this can push the underlying costs up. which then inspire miners at the low end to not sell for low prices and all people above them do the same at their respective rates. and those that cant mine for profit flip over to become buyers. which also offsets the sell vs buy ratio

the reason for the sudden influx of hashpower is obvious. next gen asics being delivered to asic farm warehouses and turning them on

if this hashrate persists where it gets to the point where the lowest cost miners are not selling below X rate then the cheapest buying price will no longer be X rate, and so the price starts to increase as there are less sellers selling for such low prices

usually you see this effect after the next difficulty adjustment which then affects the mining competition costs which then affect the price speculation

Let's clear up some confusion.

• Price doesn't change according to the hash rate. It never did.
• Hash rate doesn't change according to the price in the short term.
• Hash rate isn't solely based on the price. There are various factors that determine it in the long term. Bitcoin price, energy price, ASIC price, regulations, technological efficiency, and more.

Also, we are far from a bull run. Either be patient or get off the Bitcoin roller coaster now.

Yea, I've forgotten to be specific on that, that they might have sold their GPUs and bought some ASICs. That's just my speculation.

It's a speculation but if we look at the chart of last year, the hashrate wasn't on ATH but the price of bitcoin was good at that time. So, can't really say that it has a complete impact on bitcoin's price.

My feeling is that you are wrong, because the average investor does not understand what hashrate is, nor does he care if it decreases or increases. All those who for some reason think that a bull run is possible in the next month or in the next 6 months or maybe even a year in the future obviously do not think that something can be learned from the past. Unless something super spectacular happens, I don't see that a new bull run can happen before Q3 2024 for more than obvious reasons.

The word is "follow" not "compare". The thing that some people say and is wrong is claiming that price follows the hashrate. In other words it is wrong to say that if hashrate goes up price goes up later or if hashrate drops, price drops later following that.

It is wrong because the exact opposite is true meaning when price goes up, hashrate goes up too and vice versa.
But it doesn't happen immediately. There is a delay because you can't just flip a switch and start mining bitcoin with what you find at home. You have to buy ASICs (which is special hardware that you don't have at home like a PC or graphics cards) and have it delivered to start mining, this takes time.
There is also hardware technology that is improving meaning new ASICs come along that are more efficient and produce higher hashrate so when miners buy these new ones and have them delivered the hashrate increases.

actually the high hashrate does not determine the price of bitcoin, maybe when viewed from the high number of transactions and requests it could determine the price of bitcoin entering the beginning of the bull run, but we are all just speculating with what we learn, for example, I prefer to see and analyze the charts where currently bitcoin will recover faster to enter the start of the bullrun

Well congratulations to ETH "environmentalists" for instantly creating several megatons of technological waste overnight (ASICs)!

I'll end the satire here since this thread is not about ETH.

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Mining difficulty does not influence the price at all, only when some external event happens and people rush to exchanges to buy more BTC on exchanges will the price go back up. Because exchanges set the price. That's why each exchange has a slightly different BTC price. Most people just follow Coinbase or Bitstamp's price though.

Ethereum was using a different algorithm than bitcoin. So, those people who were mining ethereum can't mine bitcoin with the same machines at all.
The cryptography algorithm used for ethereum was KECCAK-256 while bitcoin uses SHA256.

This in the past historically is a good sign for Bitcoin,  more miners in the business than they are willing to sell which signifies security and some kind of reducing cost for miners currently in place somewhere for miners to mine Bitcoin, I guess so.  However, this might not get priced in right now into Bitcoin because this bear market has experienced so much pressure unlike other bear market due to events happening around the world, but this is generally a good sign for Bitcoin that we are almost at the bottom, if we haven't bottomed out yet, probably one more leg down.

Hashrate can rise and fall but its general trend is upward. If you see this point, you will see that using the network hashrate as reason to invest is dumb. You can see even in bear market, hashrate still increases but price drops a lot in bear market.

Another fact is capitulation is needed for a market to start a new bull run. Do we see miner capitulation yet? I could be wrong but miner capitulation has yet occurred in this bear market. I would like to wait longer to use most of my capital to invest in Bitcoin. Current price is good to accumulate it but I don't use all my capital for accumulation at the moment.

It could lead to a bull run because high hash rate shows the interest of miners around bitcoin. However, miners are the sellers in the market. To support the price rise, it also needs buyers. If the demand goes beyond the available supply in the market, it would certainly trigger a price rise.

However, it may be possible that the price rise is temporary. It will give some investors a chance to cash in the opportunity. But it's likely not to stay for longer. Let's hope for the best!

After the transition of PoW to PoS of Ethereum, it's likely that those miners have found themselves new home mining bitcoin and that made the network healthier which music to our ears.

Although there can be some indirect impact to its price and economy of bitcoin, let's just take it that the network is secured and soon the price might follow and as you've said, we don't know when.

As for relation to mining/hashrate, we can have that example of halving which is also related to them but has direct impact to bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin reaching hash rate ATH after another means Bitcoin is on top of its health. Security isn't a problem. More miners are interested to join in spite of the boring and relatively low Bitcoin price.

This must mean something, of course. This is one reason to celebrate and be more bullish about, especially with regard to Bitcoin's future. It's probably a strong statement of rebuttal, a slap on the face of those who think Bitcoin is dying.

But does this signal a price rally in the immediate future? I don't think so. Well, here's a chart of Bitcoin's hash rate versus its price. Can you spot a pattern? As for me, I didn't find anything. Perhaps if we zoom in? Well, you can look back weeks and months earlier and probably find nothing either. The price has always been volatile and yet the hash rate has consistently been rising.


https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/hashrate/

Switch the chart to 6 months, look at how many new ATH we celebrated in the last few months, then go a bit back in time and see that another ATH was in June, what happened after it? Was there a bull run? Is right now a bull run happening cause those red numbers sure don't look like it.
Seriously, why do we keep mentioning these those two things, if an increase in hashrate would trigger a bull run all we would have to do is buy each a miner, and there you have it, magically once we plug those into the power socket the price will skyrocket, because, that's how things work ...in fiction!

In reality, this is gear that was ordered months ago by people who right now are probably hitting their heads against the wall realizing they bought stuff that will OI in 3 years instead of one and that the electricity price is twice as much as the time of the order and companies that went in debt to purchase those overpriced machines. Look at what stronghold is doing:
Bitcoin Miner Stronghold Returns 26,200 Mining Rigs to NYDIG to Clear $67M Debt


Summer ending in the southern US with lower stress on the grid, Bitmain delivering new gear, some data centers clearing ETH miners and having extra room for sha miners, it's probably one hell of a mix of reasons.


Daily hash rate, it's a useless chart as it depends a lot on luck, today 140 blocks can be mined tomorrow 148, still 144 on average but the graph will show a 6% difference and a new spike, one chart that runs on PST can show 150 blocks on that uses GMT can show 145, pretty unreliable stuff.

At the moment we do not have any clear indication that the bull run has started, on the contrary, everything seems to indicate that in the near future we will continue to follow kind of sideways at the level we are at now. The hashrate is good news because it gives security to the network, but I don't expect a real bull run until after the next halving, unless the OP wants to consider a bull run going up to $30k.

The normal will be that at some point we will start to move up and leave the level of above $20k, but beating $69k and then $100k, which I think will take several tries, will only happen after the next halving.

the answer is we dont know but this maybe can be the early indicator or this can become other reason like eth miner that have farm start mining bitcoin since mining with GPU dont profit again today.

and based on your picture its only touch new ATH and then fall again to around 250 EH, to be honest if the hashrate like the price of coin it looks like double top

I don't think there's yet been a clear reason given as to why hashrate has spiked so much. There's probably a lot of explanations for it though (like excess electricity production that can't be stored might have made some rates lower in countries - such as nuclear power during the night).

The fact that it rose and then dropped might say something else too. Could this be a mining firm testing miners work before selling them whenever the next halving/price spike is (particularly a large producer of hardware).

It's possible some people have invested in producing their own electricity and powering miners with it to generate more profit than they'd get from the grid (but I think this number will be very small).

I'm not saying that this wouldn't cause a price rise, but take note that most bitcoin buyers don't give a crap about hashrate, and most definitely a lot of them don't even know what a hashrate is and/or why it's quite important.

In the end, it's far more likely and makes far more sense that the hashrate will follow the price, rather than the price following hashrate.

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

If we come to 2 years back when Hashrate reached New ATH, I have optimistic that bitcoin price will happen back to the ATH price or to be more create a new ATH, but I don't know exactly, maybe the next day, month, or year, or 10 years from now.

Many people said we can't compare the Hashrate with the price because this is all about the ecosystem, the more people mining that will be stronger the ecosystem (bitcoin network). but my feeling sure this situation is very related to the price, I can't tell you the reason,  so if you have to, don't hesitate to start shopping bitcoin now, hurry up, so what are your feeling?