Topic: BTC is going to be Linux of Currencies. Fiat will still be Windows. (Read 823 times)
Fiat is in it's death throes, crypto is the number 1 contender for Fiats replacment.
July 07, 2013, 02:42:13 PM
This will develop rather slow in the beginning. Parting people from their beloved money does not happen overnight. It will go very slowly until BANG... everyone except your mama knows it and uses it. I get the feeling that most people around me already know about Bitcoin, but trust in 'money' only comes slowly.
July 07, 2013, 02:25:01 PM
That's very fair point Stan, i hadn't thought of smartphones.
however this also feeds back against Bitcoin becoming mainstream. Android (or iOS) became popular by virtue of be enablers for some other use. they are near invisible to most users, who focus mainly on the devices apps they use. so, is there a company or application waiting in the wings about to adopt Bitcoin as a facilitator for some other popular purpose?
I am pro-Linux and it have been a source of frustration that they, the "community" have not acted with common cause, leaving us with a fragmented landscape and perception that its difficult to use. I see the same issue arising in Bitcoin, for much the same reasons, ignoring how the mainstream population use things being one.
Attaining a level of 5% share or so would defiantly be a success.
however this also feeds back against Bitcoin becoming mainstream. Android (or iOS) became popular by virtue of be enablers for some other use. they are near invisible to most users, who focus mainly on the devices apps they use. so, is there a company or application waiting in the wings about to adopt Bitcoin as a facilitator for some other popular purpose?
I am pro-Linux and it have been a source of frustration that they, the "community" have not acted with common cause, leaving us with a fragmented landscape and perception that its difficult to use. I see the same issue arising in Bitcoin, for much the same reasons, ignoring how the mainstream population use things being one.
Attaining a level of 5% share or so would defiantly be a success.
July 07, 2013, 11:01:52 AM
Just one question, what's the most popular single user OS these days?
I'll field that as I happen to be reading on the subject earlier - its Windows 7 (44%) followed closely by Windows XP (37%). Linux, all of them collectively have less than 2.1% (under "other" including Win2000, *BSD and all manner of esoteric OS species).
The OP has a point, there are many parallels to Linux as I can see, one of which is the attitude and response to this sort of point being raised.
July 07, 2013, 10:45:04 AM
I erased my last Windows partitions in 1999, have used nothing but Linux since. Ubuntu has become the 'Windows of Linux' for the last several generations. Many don't like it for being dumbed-down, and moving things to non-standard locations. Linux Mint is a good Ubuntu variant, they include some codecs that are not shipped with Ubuntu. It's really easy to add them (AVI, MP3).
I have several definitely non-technical friends and family I have set up with Linux, and as long as they can click here for email, click there for web, click this for movies, it works fine. They like it because it works, *I* like it because I don't have to disinfect/reinstall Windows for them all the time anymore.
Relating to BTC, there is and will be middlemen to handle the techie stuff (for a nominal service charge). It could be reduced to "swipe your card", to give a familiar interface to non-technical people.
I have several definitely non-technical friends and family I have set up with Linux, and as long as they can click here for email, click there for web, click this for movies, it works fine. They like it because it works, *I* like it because I don't have to disinfect/reinstall Windows for them all the time anymore.
Relating to BTC, there is and will be middlemen to handle the techie stuff (for a nominal service charge). It could be reduced to "swipe your card", to give a familiar interface to non-technical people.
+1
July 06, 2013, 11:55:42 AM
Just because you have to be technically savvy to mine BTC doesn't mean you have to be technically savvy to spend or accept them. Even having to be technically savvy to mine BTC is not as true today as it was a year ago since several mining programs available today come ready to mine -- just download, put in your username, password, etc., and you're mining.
You do have some valid points, and not to sound like a cheezeball, I would call those "challenges." The easier developers can make it for the average person to send/receive BTC, the more the BTC system will be used. I think the developers are doing a good job with this and are headed in a good direction. Another challenge is marketing. We need to get the word out about what the BTC system can do for the average person...how it is secure (again, dependent largely upon the developer who creates the app), low exchange rates, no central authority, virtually hack-proof, etc. You and I know these things. The general public just needs to be educated about these things, and therein lies the greatest challenge.
The "We Use Coins" video is a great example of something that the average person can easily understand. We need more videos, simple 1-page overview descriptions, and more easy to understand media that is has a quality look to it.
As a developer, I hate to emphasize "easy to understand," but unfortunately our society is being dumbed-down. For one, look at how popular the Kardashians are. Yes, I know BTC is a complex and even beautiful system and the information that explains it in detail should remain available too. Just be aware that most people won't drill down that deep, so the emphasis shouldn't be on "selling" the intricacies and complexities of the system.
One thing I do is to wear a Bitcoin t-shirt several days a week. Several people have asked about it, and some say "I've seen that in the news. What exactly is this?" And then I explain and point them to several sites that offer apps which facilitate buying/selling of goods.
I could go on, but I think you see what I mean
You do have some valid points, and not to sound like a cheezeball, I would call those "challenges." The easier developers can make it for the average person to send/receive BTC, the more the BTC system will be used. I think the developers are doing a good job with this and are headed in a good direction. Another challenge is marketing. We need to get the word out about what the BTC system can do for the average person...how it is secure (again, dependent largely upon the developer who creates the app), low exchange rates, no central authority, virtually hack-proof, etc. You and I know these things. The general public just needs to be educated about these things, and therein lies the greatest challenge.
The "We Use Coins" video is a great example of something that the average person can easily understand. We need more videos, simple 1-page overview descriptions, and more easy to understand media that is has a quality look to it.
As a developer, I hate to emphasize "easy to understand," but unfortunately our society is being dumbed-down. For one, look at how popular the Kardashians are. Yes, I know BTC is a complex and even beautiful system and the information that explains it in detail should remain available too. Just be aware that most people won't drill down that deep, so the emphasis shouldn't be on "selling" the intricacies and complexities of the system.
One thing I do is to wear a Bitcoin t-shirt several days a week. Several people have asked about it, and some say "I've seen that in the news. What exactly is this?" And then I explain and point them to several sites that offer apps which facilitate buying/selling of goods.
I could go on, but I think you see what I mean
July 06, 2013, 07:34:16 AM
I erased my last Windows partitions in 1999, have used nothing but Linux since. Ubuntu has become the 'Windows of Linux' for the last several generations. Many don't like it for being dumbed-down, and moving things to non-standard locations. Linux Mint is a good Ubuntu variant, they include some codecs that are not shipped with Ubuntu. It's really easy to add them (AVI, MP3).
I have several definitely non-technical friends and family I have set up with Linux, and as long as they can click here for email, click there for web, click this for movies, it works fine. They like it because it works, *I* like it because I don't have to disinfect/reinstall Windows for them all the time anymore.
Relating to BTC, there is and will be middlemen to handle the techie stuff (for a nominal service charge). It could be reduced to "swipe your card", to give a familiar interface to non-technical people.
I have several definitely non-technical friends and family I have set up with Linux, and as long as they can click here for email, click there for web, click this for movies, it works fine. They like it because it works, *I* like it because I don't have to disinfect/reinstall Windows for them all the time anymore.
Relating to BTC, there is and will be middlemen to handle the techie stuff (for a nominal service charge). It could be reduced to "swipe your card", to give a familiar interface to non-technical people.
July 06, 2013, 07:24:32 AM
one infrastructure starts grinding in and we have a shiny easy to use interface to use for grandma, along with a heathly supply of .01btc casascius coins floating around the world, adoption will come swiftly. matter of time. the advantages are so huge and peoples distrust of government is growing day by day.
July 06, 2013, 06:04:33 AM
Ordinary people don't use Linux. Except when they go to just about every website or use an app on their Android phone. 
July 06, 2013, 05:45:19 AM
First, lets look at some facts regarding Linux/Unix (go to wikipedia to look at the sources):
Bitcoin, in my mind, is going to be just like Linux. Extremely useful. Technically superior. Shunned by the masses. I don't ever see the average person running around with 30-character, randomized passwords, paper wallets, hardware wallets, checking the blockchain for confirmations. If more than 2% of people aren't willing to install Linux, locate Linux drivers for their devices, and find suitable software for their personal computers to have what most tech geeks would call a superior operating system, then are they going to bother doing all of those geeky things with BTC to become their own bankers? "Online wallets!" you say. Let me convince my parents to put a significant amount of money in an online wallet that's 1 years old.
Most people (85%+ or so) would feel much more comfortable keeping most of their money in fiat in the bank and then paying a third party a small fee to do transactions in BTC on their behalf to reap whatever benefits BTC can afford them. So if a Kenyan living in China wants to send a 10,000 RMB remittance back to Kenya, he can go to Eastern Union Bitcoin, Inc. and hand over the 10,000 RMB. Eastern Union Bitcoin, Inc. will do all the BTC buying/selling and currency conversion from RMB to USD and then hand the money over to the Kenyan's Bitcoin-illiterate, bank account-less family members for a fee much less than Western Union's.
In this way, Bitcoin gets used, but people who aren't ready to handle their own security can still use the fiat system they are used to. Same thing with this Bitcoin ETF. People can invest in bitcoin without having to really get into the nitty gritty. I think bitcoin, if it becomes successful, is going to be like the linux/unix of currency. It'll be operating in the background where and when it makes sense to use it, but the vast majority of users will not be directly working with it for ordinary transactions. They'll interface with BTC through layers of software and 3rd parties in the same way that we all send information through linux-based operating systems on workstations/servers/routers/phones every day but only a small percentage (1%) of us actually mess around with Linux on our desktops.
My prediction is that Bitcoin, at peak adoption, would be used directly by 1% or so of people, but play a much more significant role on the backend of everything. Thus, trying to get merchants to accept BTC directly or trying to get your average Joe on the street to download a wallet and start trading Bitcoins online is not really important. In fact, if someone loses their money due to lack pf technical precautions, it will likely turn them off to BTC forever. The vast majority of people in America and Europe don't need to have a BTC wallet. They'd probably rather buy BTC gift cards at WALMART or go through middlemen while having their money insured, reversible, and sitting in a 100 year old, trusted institution.
Quote
"It is a leading operating system on servers and other big iron systems such as mainframe computers and supercomputers:[16][17][18][19] more than 90% of today's 500 fastest supercomputers run some variant of Linux,[20] including the 10 fastest.[21] Linux also runs on embedded systems (devices where the operating system is typically built into the firmware and highly tailored to the system) such as mobile phones, tablet computers, network routers, building automation controls, televisions[22][23] and video game consoles; the Android system in wide use on mobile devices is built on the Linux kernel."
"The Linux market is growing rapidly, and the revenue of servers, desktops, and packaged software running Linux was expected to exceed $35.7 billion by 2008.[91]
"In September 2008 Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer admitted that 60% of web-servers run Linux versus 40% that run Windows Server.[93]
Primarily based on web server statistics, the estimated market share of Linux on desktop is 1.17%.[94] In comparison, Microsoft operating systems hold more than 85%.[34][35][36][37][38][39][40][95][96]"
"The Linux market is growing rapidly, and the revenue of servers, desktops, and packaged software running Linux was expected to exceed $35.7 billion by 2008.[91]
"In September 2008 Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer admitted that 60% of web-servers run Linux versus 40% that run Windows Server.[93]
Primarily based on web server statistics, the estimated market share of Linux on desktop is 1.17%.[94] In comparison, Microsoft operating systems hold more than 85%.[34][35][36][37][38][39][40][95][96]"
Bitcoin, in my mind, is going to be just like Linux. Extremely useful. Technically superior. Shunned by the masses. I don't ever see the average person running around with 30-character, randomized passwords, paper wallets, hardware wallets, checking the blockchain for confirmations. If more than 2% of people aren't willing to install Linux, locate Linux drivers for their devices, and find suitable software for their personal computers to have what most tech geeks would call a superior operating system, then are they going to bother doing all of those geeky things with BTC to become their own bankers? "Online wallets!" you say. Let me convince my parents to put a significant amount of money in an online wallet that's 1 years old.
Most people (85%+ or so) would feel much more comfortable keeping most of their money in fiat in the bank and then paying a third party a small fee to do transactions in BTC on their behalf to reap whatever benefits BTC can afford them. So if a Kenyan living in China wants to send a 10,000 RMB remittance back to Kenya, he can go to Eastern Union Bitcoin, Inc. and hand over the 10,000 RMB. Eastern Union Bitcoin, Inc. will do all the BTC buying/selling and currency conversion from RMB to USD and then hand the money over to the Kenyan's Bitcoin-illiterate, bank account-less family members for a fee much less than Western Union's.
In this way, Bitcoin gets used, but people who aren't ready to handle their own security can still use the fiat system they are used to. Same thing with this Bitcoin ETF. People can invest in bitcoin without having to really get into the nitty gritty. I think bitcoin, if it becomes successful, is going to be like the linux/unix of currency. It'll be operating in the background where and when it makes sense to use it, but the vast majority of users will not be directly working with it for ordinary transactions. They'll interface with BTC through layers of software and 3rd parties in the same way that we all send information through linux-based operating systems on workstations/servers/routers/phones every day but only a small percentage (1%) of us actually mess around with Linux on our desktops.
My prediction is that Bitcoin, at peak adoption, would be used directly by 1% or so of people, but play a much more significant role on the backend of everything. Thus, trying to get merchants to accept BTC directly or trying to get your average Joe on the street to download a wallet and start trading Bitcoins online is not really important. In fact, if someone loses their money due to lack pf technical precautions, it will likely turn them off to BTC forever. The vast majority of people in America and Europe don't need to have a BTC wallet. They'd probably rather buy BTC gift cards at WALMART or go through middlemen while having their money insured, reversible, and sitting in a 100 year old, trusted institution.
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