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Topic: BTC mining in Germany (Read 208 times)
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Thank your very much for your detailed answer and the provided calculation, definitely opened my eyes. Appreciate it. So, in conclusion, BTC mining is in your opinion not worth it in Germany as far as the electrcity costs stay > 0.10 kWh, right?
Thank your very much for your detailed answer and the provided calculation, definitely opened my eyes. Appreciate it. So, in conclusion, BTC mining is in your opinion not worth it in Germany as far as the electrcity costs stay > 0.10 kWh, right?
Well, offcourse it's completely up to you... If you can get your hands on nearly-free gear, and you believe the price will skyrocket whilst the diff will stay low... Sure, you can go for it... However, i think those odds are (really) small.
Personally, i would not start a mining operation if i could not recuperate my investment in 6-9 months at the current price and a diff of 30T. But then again, i'm not a big risk-taker. In reality, that would mean i should be able to buy latest gen gear from China at a fraction of the price AND have a power price that way lower than 10 cents/kwh... Ideally, in the 3-6 cents/kwh range.
Let's put it this way: if you were my close, personal, IRL friend and you came to me for advise, i'd tell you not to do it because the odds of getting burned are to big... Especially if you're going to get a loan to start this business... Banks want to get their money back, old ASIC's are worth close to nothing... So having a 50k-100k loan might make them confiscate your wage (if you have one), make them sell some of your belongings, or even your house.
The moment you see 0.16euro/kwh....
~snip~
That's dreaming, back in October, we were at 20T and the price was 10k!
~snip~
That's dreaming, back in October, we were at 20T and the price was 10k!
I wrote as an answer to one of the duplicates of this thread, but OP didn't want to listen.
It's not only that 16 eurocents is expensive; it's also that the calculations made now, while the difficulty is temporarily low, which may easily mislead him.
Thank you, your points make absolutely sense! Just oversaw your first answer, sorry.
I'm not a specialist here, but i did have a quick glance at your table.
What i'm concerned about is that your worst case scenario isn't what i would pick as a worst case scenario...
Also, i don't see your power bill into this picture, everything is calculated in USD and EUR, so it's very hard for me to see if you included this factor into your calculation.
You do have a scenario where your diff increases to 25T, but you couple it with a 47% price increase.
You also have scenario's with a price decrease, but you couple it to a "mild" difficulty inrease.
And you don't take into account those antminers tend to break quite often and only have a 3 month warranty (if you buy them brand new).
Also, i started searching for place where you could buy an S19 pro. They weren't sold by bitmain anymore (apparently), and the few seamingly reputable stores that still had them in stock asked prices ranging from 8000€ to 15000€/piece. I'm not sure if you'd be able to buy 8 S19 pro's + cables + shelves + network + PSU + A/C + import tax + S&H for 56.000€
Now, for what it's worth, i would probably go for a different "worst case" scenario:
8 miners * 8000 € =64.000 €
21% import tax = 13.000€
S&H, shelves, PSU's, cables, A/C, fans, switches,... = 5000€
fixing machines, keeping the running for > 2 years, replacing broken ASIC's = 15000€
total hardware cost =~ €100k
total power draw = 26 Kw
total hashrate = 880 Th/s
Difficulty => we know there's enough hardware out there to push the diff back up to 25T. We also know the year prior to China's decision, the difficulty had an increase of ~7T in one year. Since your ROI will defenately be more than 1 year, i'd go for an average difficulty of 30T. You have to realize the odds are pretty big that turned off hardware falls into the hands of somebody mining at a much cheaper power rate than you, and this person will probably buy thousands of second hand units making the price he pays per unit a lot cheaper than you buying 8 or 10 units.
Price => Eventough the price might rise (it's actually very probable), we're making a worst case scenario here... The current price is ~$32k, but the price has drastically decreased in the past aswell... so let's assume the bottom price is €20k in >2 years
Let's see our income in one year, with a writeoff for your hardware of 2 years :
Hardware costs: €50k
Power costs: 26Kw * 24h * 365 days * 0.16€/kwh = ~€36,5k
Total cost: €86,5k
Income @ 880Th, 30T diff, including a 1% pool fee:
(((((Hashrate (hashes/sec) * average block reward * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / Difficulty) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365
(((((880.000.000.000.000* 6.25 * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / 30.000.000.000.000) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365 = 1.33 BTC/year
That's an income of ~€26k/year. That's not enough to pay your electricity costs...
Now, once again: this is my worst case scenario... It's a little far fetched, but not impossible...
What i'm concerned about is that your worst case scenario isn't what i would pick as a worst case scenario...
Also, i don't see your power bill into this picture, everything is calculated in USD and EUR, so it's very hard for me to see if you included this factor into your calculation.
You do have a scenario where your diff increases to 25T, but you couple it with a 47% price increase.
You also have scenario's with a price decrease, but you couple it to a "mild" difficulty inrease.
And you don't take into account those antminers tend to break quite often and only have a 3 month warranty (if you buy them brand new).
Also, i started searching for place where you could buy an S19 pro. They weren't sold by bitmain anymore (apparently), and the few seamingly reputable stores that still had them in stock asked prices ranging from 8000€ to 15000€/piece. I'm not sure if you'd be able to buy 8 S19 pro's + cables + shelves + network + PSU + A/C + import tax + S&H for 56.000€
Now, for what it's worth, i would probably go for a different "worst case" scenario:
8 miners * 8000 € =64.000 €
21% import tax = 13.000€
S&H, shelves, PSU's, cables, A/C, fans, switches,... = 5000€
fixing machines, keeping the running for > 2 years, replacing broken ASIC's = 15000€
total hardware cost =~ €100k
total power draw = 26 Kw
total hashrate = 880 Th/s
Difficulty => we know there's enough hardware out there to push the diff back up to 25T. We also know the year prior to China's decision, the difficulty had an increase of ~7T in one year. Since your ROI will defenately be more than 1 year, i'd go for an average difficulty of 30T. You have to realize the odds are pretty big that turned off hardware falls into the hands of somebody mining at a much cheaper power rate than you, and this person will probably buy thousands of second hand units making the price he pays per unit a lot cheaper than you buying 8 or 10 units.
Price => Eventough the price might rise (it's actually very probable), we're making a worst case scenario here... The current price is ~$32k, but the price has drastically decreased in the past aswell... so let's assume the bottom price is €20k in >2 years
Let's see our income in one year, with a writeoff for your hardware of 2 years :
Hardware costs: €50k
Power costs: 26Kw * 24h * 365 days * 0.16€/kwh = ~€36,5k
Total cost: €86,5k
Income @ 880Th, 30T diff, including a 1% pool fee:
(((((Hashrate (hashes/sec) * average block reward * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / Difficulty) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365
(((((880.000.000.000.000* 6.25 * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / 30.000.000.000.000) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365 = 1.33 BTC/year
That's an income of ~€26k/year. That's not enough to pay your electricity costs...
Now, once again: this is my worst case scenario... It's a little far fetched, but not impossible...
Thank your very much for your detailed answer and the provided calculation, definitely opened my eyes. Appreciate it. So, in conclusion, BTC mining is in your opinion not worth it in Germany as far as the electrcity costs stay > 0.10 kWh, right?
The other thing to consider, is that not only will the bank refuse to lend money to purchase cryptocurrency, but they would also refuse to loan money to buy equipment to mine cryptocurrency - therefore you'd have to lie about the purpose of the loan.
The moment you see 0.16euro/kwh....
~snip~
That's dreaming, back in October, we were at 20T and the price was 10k!
~snip~
That's dreaming, back in October, we were at 20T and the price was 10k!
I wrote as an answer to one of the duplicates of this thread, but OP didn't want to listen.
It's not only that 16 eurocents is expensive; it's also that the calculations made now, while the difficulty is temporarily low, which may easily mislead him.
The moment you see 0.16euro/kwh....
I know for Germany is not that much but you're in competition with the rest of the world, I only recently started mining when I got a deal 1/3 of what you have and still I got pretty restless when the price started to get down. That difficulty you're taking into account in the scenarios will not last, it can't last simply because there is cheap gear available and if you plan on mining at that price what do you think people with 10 cents or 6 cents will do?
I look at your scenarios but out of 7 only there picture a difficulty of over 20T, and only one of 25T, and that at a price of 50k.
Scenario 4 at 80k per coin and only 16T difficulty? That's dreaming, back in October, we were at 20T and the price was 10k!
Also:
I think you did something wrong here, I'm not sure how with a difficulty of +40% and an increase in the price of only 17% you can make more money.
To be honest I would suggest buying that gear on the loan you take from the bank and reseller it at the same price to some other buyer and with the money buy bitcoin directly. I know it's not the proper way of doing but it's far less risky than what you plan here.
I know for Germany is not that much but you're in competition with the rest of the world, I only recently started mining when I got a deal 1/3 of what you have and still I got pretty restless when the price started to get down. That difficulty you're taking into account in the scenarios will not last, it can't last simply because there is cheap gear available and if you plan on mining at that price what do you think people with 10 cents or 6 cents will do?
I look at your scenarios but out of 7 only there picture a difficulty of over 20T, and only one of 25T, and that at a price of 50k.
Scenario 4 at 80k per coin and only 16T difficulty? That's dreaming, back in October, we were at 20T and the price was 10k!
Also:
I think you did something wrong here, I'm not sure how with a difficulty of +40% and an increase in the price of only 17% you can make more money.
To be honest I would suggest buying that gear on the loan you take from the bank and reseller it at the same price to some other buyer and with the money buy bitcoin directly. I know it's not the proper way of doing but it's far less risky than what you plan here.
I'm not a specialist here, but i did have a quick glance at your table.
What i'm concerned about is that your worst case scenario isn't what i would pick as a worst case scenario...
Also, i don't see your power bill into this picture, everything is calculated in USD and EUR, so it's very hard for me to see if you included this factor into your calculation.
You do have a scenario where your diff increases to 25T, but you couple it with a 47% price increase.
You also have scenario's with a price decrease, but you couple it to a "mild" difficulty inrease.
And you don't take into account those antminers tend to break quite often and only have a 3 month warranty (if you buy them brand new).
Also, i started searching for place where you could buy an S19 pro. They weren't sold by bitmain anymore (apparently), and the few seamingly reputable stores that still had them in stock asked prices ranging from 8000€ to 15000€/piece. I'm not sure if you'd be able to buy 8 S19 pro's + cables + shelves + network + PSU + A/C + import tax + S&H for 56.000€
Now, for what it's worth, i would probably go for a different "worst case" scenario:
8 miners * 8000 € =64.000 €
21% import tax = 13.000€
S&H, shelves, PSU's, cables, A/C, fans, switches,... = 5000€
fixing machines, keeping the running for > 2 years, replacing broken ASIC's = 15000€
total hardware cost =~ €100k
total power draw = 26 Kw
total hashrate = 880 Th/s
Difficulty => we know there's enough hardware out there to push the diff back up to 25T. We also know the year prior to China's decision, the difficulty had an increase of ~7T in one year. Since your ROI will defenately be more than 1 year, i'd go for an average difficulty of 30T. You have to realize the odds are pretty big that turned off hardware falls into the hands of somebody mining at a much cheaper power rate than you, and this person will probably buy thousands of second hand units making the price he pays per unit a lot cheaper than you buying 8 or 10 units.
Price => Eventough the price might rise (it's actually very probable), we're making a worst case scenario here... The current price is ~$32k, but the price has drastically decreased in the past aswell... so let's assume the bottom price is €20k in >2 years
Let's see our income in one year, with a writeoff for your hardware of 2 years :
Hardware costs: €50k
Power costs: 26Kw * 24h * 365 days * 0.16€/kwh = ~€36,5k
Total cost: €86,5k
Income @ 880Th, 30T diff, including a 1% pool fee:
(((((Hashrate (hashes/sec) * average block reward * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / Difficulty) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365
(((((880.000.000.000.000* 6.25 * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / 30.000.000.000.000) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365 = 1.33 BTC/year
That's an income of ~€26k/year. That's not enough to pay your electricity costs...
Now, once again: this is my worst case scenario... It's a little far fetched, but not impossible...
What i'm concerned about is that your worst case scenario isn't what i would pick as a worst case scenario...
Also, i don't see your power bill into this picture, everything is calculated in USD and EUR, so it's very hard for me to see if you included this factor into your calculation.
You do have a scenario where your diff increases to 25T, but you couple it with a 47% price increase.
You also have scenario's with a price decrease, but you couple it to a "mild" difficulty inrease.
And you don't take into account those antminers tend to break quite often and only have a 3 month warranty (if you buy them brand new).
Also, i started searching for place where you could buy an S19 pro. They weren't sold by bitmain anymore (apparently), and the few seamingly reputable stores that still had them in stock asked prices ranging from 8000€ to 15000€/piece. I'm not sure if you'd be able to buy 8 S19 pro's + cables + shelves + network + PSU + A/C + import tax + S&H for 56.000€
Now, for what it's worth, i would probably go for a different "worst case" scenario:
8 miners * 8000 € =64.000 €
21% import tax = 13.000€
S&H, shelves, PSU's, cables, A/C, fans, switches,... = 5000€
fixing machines, keeping the running for > 2 years, replacing broken ASIC's = 15000€
total hardware cost =~ €100k
total power draw = 26 Kw
total hashrate = 880 Th/s
Difficulty => we know there's enough hardware out there to push the diff back up to 25T. We also know the year prior to China's decision, the difficulty had an increase of ~7T in one year. Since your ROI will defenately be more than 1 year, i'd go for an average difficulty of 30T. You have to realize the odds are pretty big that turned off hardware falls into the hands of somebody mining at a much cheaper power rate than you, and this person will probably buy thousands of second hand units making the price he pays per unit a lot cheaper than you buying 8 or 10 units.
Price => Eventough the price might rise (it's actually very probable), we're making a worst case scenario here... The current price is ~$32k, but the price has drastically decreased in the past aswell... so let's assume the bottom price is €20k in >2 years
Let's see our income in one year, with a writeoff for your hardware of 2 years :
Hardware costs: €50k
Power costs: 26Kw * 24h * 365 days * 0.16€/kwh = ~€36,5k
Total cost: €86,5k
Income @ 880Th, 30T diff, including a 1% pool fee:
(((((Hashrate (hashes/sec) * average block reward * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / Difficulty) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365
(((((880.000.000.000.000* 6.25 * 600 * 65535) / 2^48) / 30.000.000.000.000) * 6 * 24) * 0.99) *365 = 1.33 BTC/year
That's an income of ~€26k/year. That's not enough to pay your electricity costs...
Now, once again: this is my worst case scenario... It's a little far fetched, but not impossible...
Thank you for your detailed answer, I absolutely get your point! But, the only way to generate BTC for me is mining atm, banks in Germany won't give loans for buying speculative assets like BTC, rather you can get a loan for investing in machines for your business which I want to go for. Like I said, I did a scenario analysis, for different outcomes if the BTC price will rise or fall or if the difficulty adjustment goes back to +21%. All of them are profitable if you take a loan for 84 months. If you want to pay the loan back in the first year then only some of the scenarios are profitable.
I just want to make passive income with these machines, but please have a look and let me know what you think.
https://i.imgur.com/g4jAXaS.png
I just want to make passive income with these machines, but please have a look and let me know what you think.
https://i.imgur.com/g4jAXaS.png
The forum does not host images for you...
You need to upload your image to an image host allowing hotlinking (like imgur), the include the hotlinking url in your post.
As a newbie, the pictures won't show, but the link will, so we can have a look at the image that way.
We're currently in a difficulty dip, while to me it is unclear wether we'll see an increase in the exchange rate in the future...
So, you can think of the current situation as the "probably best case moment", the odds of things getting less profitable in the near future are big (eventough they are not 100%, there's still a chance the diff will dip even more, or the price will explode).
That being said:
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/calculator?h=880.00&p=26000&pc=0.19&pf=1.00&d=14363025673660.00000000&r=6.25000000&er=1&btcer=34791.24370000&ha=TH&hc=2407.00&hs=-1&hq=1
At current difficulty, current price, not including breaking ASIC's, taxes, S&H, cooling,... You'd make an equivalent of ~124€/day.
This would mean ~403 days to break even IF the difficulty doesn't peak, IF the price doesn't drop and IF you calculated all the costs correctly... A lot of people forget import tax, shipping and handling, shelves, airconditioning, power cables, routers,...
Personally, i wouldn't start a mining business with a 403 ROI (best case scenario). If i were you, i'd follow your friend's advice and just buy BTC (if you believe the price will rise). But in the end, it's up to you...
Just as a last note: if you're guessing for a price increase, and you're actually thinking about mining at a loss (with the 403 day ROI), you're always better off just buying BTC... I see this misconception quite often.
Let's take this fictional example:
Person X mines 1 BTC at a cost of $50.000, while the actual price of 1 BTC is only $25.000. He keeps his 1 BTC and waits untill the price of 1 BTC rises to $75.000 to sell. He now has $25.000 in profits.
Person Y buys $50.000 worth of BTC (so he invests the same as person X). He now has 2 BTC. He keeps his 2 BTC and waits untill the price of 1 BTC rises to $75.000 to sell. He now has $100.000 in profits.
Who made the best investment? The person buying $50.000 worth of BTC, or the person investing $50.000 in mining?
You need to upload your image to an image host allowing hotlinking (like imgur), the include the hotlinking url in your post.
As a newbie, the pictures won't show, but the link will, so we can have a look at the image that way.
We're currently in a difficulty dip, while to me it is unclear wether we'll see an increase in the exchange rate in the future...
So, you can think of the current situation as the "probably best case moment", the odds of things getting less profitable in the near future are big (eventough they are not 100%, there's still a chance the diff will dip even more, or the price will explode).
That being said:
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/calculator?h=880.00&p=26000&pc=0.19&pf=1.00&d=14363025673660.00000000&r=6.25000000&er=1&btcer=34791.24370000&ha=TH&hc=2407.00&hs=-1&hq=1
At current difficulty, current price, not including breaking ASIC's, taxes, S&H, cooling,... You'd make an equivalent of ~124€/day.
This would mean ~403 days to break even IF the difficulty doesn't peak, IF the price doesn't drop and IF you calculated all the costs correctly... A lot of people forget import tax, shipping and handling, shelves, airconditioning, power cables, routers,...
Personally, i wouldn't start a mining business with a 403 ROI (best case scenario). If i were you, i'd follow your friend's advice and just buy BTC (if you believe the price will rise). But in the end, it's up to you...
Just as a last note: if you're guessing for a price increase, and you're actually thinking about mining at a loss (with the 403 day ROI), you're always better off just buying BTC... I see this misconception quite often.
Let's take this fictional example:
Person X mines 1 BTC at a cost of $50.000, while the actual price of 1 BTC is only $25.000. He keeps his 1 BTC and waits untill the price of 1 BTC rises to $75.000 to sell. He now has $25.000 in profits.
Person Y buys $50.000 worth of BTC (so he invests the same as person X). He now has 2 BTC. He keeps his 2 BTC and waits untill the price of 1 BTC rises to $75.000 to sell. He now has $100.000 in profits.
Who made the best investment? The person buying $50.000 worth of BTC, or the person investing $50.000 in mining?
I did a scenario analysis with different outcomes of profit depending on difficulty as well as BTC price changes. I would like to show it to you but how can I add images to this post? It just says http:// but it doesn't work if I try to copy and paste a picture.
0.16 EUR per Kwh is way too high for this to be a feasible project.
1) The current diff drop is only temporary while miners are relocated. The diff could easily jump 50-60% in the next few months, or more.
2) S19 series are just as bad as S17 series, so some of your miners will break and potentially never break even.
The only way this is viable is if BTC shoots back up in value to around $55k - $60k or more, shortly AFTER you have purchased your miners (else the purchase price of miners will increase also).
1) The current diff drop is only temporary while miners are relocated. The diff could easily jump 50-60% in the next few months, or more.
2) S19 series are just as bad as S17 series, so some of your miners will break and potentially never break even.
The only way this is viable is if BTC shoots back up in value to around $55k - $60k or more, shortly AFTER you have purchased your miners (else the purchase price of miners will increase also).
Since the ban of the BTC mining facilities in China and the drop in difficulty adjustment to -27%, I was thinking if I should start a small mining business in Germany. The mining rig could consume energy from nearby biogas plants (these biogas plants operating 8760 hours year minus 10 percent maintenance, etc. 8400 h × 500kw / h, so they produce 4.2 million kw) which cost me around 0.16 kwh EUR.
I know the energy costs are not as cheap as in the US but still it's a pretty good deal for living in Germany. My plan was to buy 8 new antminer S19 pro and set up a small mining farm. The costs will be around 65k USD. According to my calculation as of right now I would be break even in a lil more than a year and after that the calculation says I'll make profit at around 50k Eur if the difficulty stays the same as well as the BTC price. I did a worst case scenario analysis where I dropped the price of BTC to 20k EUR and the difficulty up to 21% and I still would make a lil bit of profit per year.
I know a lot of people suggest to jsut buy BTC instead, but I think a few mining rigs are nice to stack some sats for the future, because imo BTC price will go up to 1m+ in 10 years or so. So here's my question, do you think I should go for it? Do you think BTC mining at that kwh costs and the low difficulty adjustment, can be profitable again in Germany? Would love to hear your opinion on that, because my initial costs for the investment would be 65k and the calculations say the machines will produce more than 2.4 BTC in one year, that's more than I would get for 65k USD in BTC right now, and after the initial costs the machines would still produce BTC year after year without me investing further amounts except of maintenance etc. Am I wrong? I would earn around 90k+ in revenue minus the energy costs of 40k which places me a profit of around 50k per year after break even (as of right now).
If you're an expert in mining, meaning you're doing it since several years in large or small scale, please reach out to me, I have several questions regarding my investment and plan.
I know the energy costs are not as cheap as in the US but still it's a pretty good deal for living in Germany. My plan was to buy 8 new antminer S19 pro and set up a small mining farm. The costs will be around 65k USD. According to my calculation as of right now I would be break even in a lil more than a year and after that the calculation says I'll make profit at around 50k Eur if the difficulty stays the same as well as the BTC price. I did a worst case scenario analysis where I dropped the price of BTC to 20k EUR and the difficulty up to 21% and I still would make a lil bit of profit per year.
I know a lot of people suggest to jsut buy BTC instead, but I think a few mining rigs are nice to stack some sats for the future, because imo BTC price will go up to 1m+ in 10 years or so. So here's my question, do you think I should go for it? Do you think BTC mining at that kwh costs and the low difficulty adjustment, can be profitable again in Germany? Would love to hear your opinion on that, because my initial costs for the investment would be 65k and the calculations say the machines will produce more than 2.4 BTC in one year, that's more than I would get for 65k USD in BTC right now, and after the initial costs the machines would still produce BTC year after year without me investing further amounts except of maintenance etc. Am I wrong? I would earn around 90k+ in revenue minus the energy costs of 40k which places me a profit of around 50k per year after break even (as of right now).
If you're an expert in mining, meaning you're doing it since several years in large or small scale, please reach out to me, I have several questions regarding my investment and plan.
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