Topic: BTC Network about to hit 1 exahash for the first time over a 24 hour period!!! (Read 2000 times)

Yes i agree. i wonder if a lot of the drop was antpool today.. I seen in another thread that they might have been under ddos attack today..  Gonna be fun to watch that's for sure.. Id like to get some s7 as i hate to be out of mining altogether .. just want to wait a bit more to see where things settle.. with the halving coming im pretty much shooting in the dark anyway lol..

Thanks for your feedback..I appreciate it

Best Regards
d57heinz

even if it was only 250ph  and the rest was variance there is no doubt that a huge amount of gear is on and off quite easy to do or looks like that.

Your ppn method helps to  point out the true top limits of the network.  Which are 950 to 1050 ph a rough guess on that by me after looking and doing a few ad hock calculations.

We are going to have a very interesting 6-7 months until ½ ing.

Boy are you right.. Look at that drop.. 400 peta instant shut down.. Crazy!!



Best Regards
d57heinz

153 with 3 ½ hours to go.  so maybe only 175   .  it is what makes diff pretty much impossible to predicate right not on short term time sets.  the power up power down is too easy to do.

I don't think we will do 195 Blocks Today, would require an average 7.2 Min Block Time for the rest of the Day and I think at some point we will see a slight pull back. I predict 188 Blocks. But I am pretty good at being wrong....  


Rich

so 79  vs 103


divide 103 by 79 =  a factor of 1.3  so right now   we are at 391727 - 391607 = 120 blocks + 1 = 121 blocks on the day  x 1.3 = 157 or 158  instead of 120/121

since the time is  14:41 pm  for the block day that should be 88

so 88 = norm
121= actual

157/158 = answer to your question

Yea i must have been busy that day.. I try to check in here daily but with the holidays i missed out on what looks like was a very block filled day on the 27th. Thats an impressive jump for sure.  I'll Be interested to see in a couple days when bitcoinity gets caught up who the miner/s are that are contributing to this spike in hash..  One can only fill so many datacenters before like you said Phil your mining against yourself.

Im starting to see why they are turning on and off I think  

phil can you help me here. what would the increase have been at say 79 bil diff  vs now at 103.. so how many blocks a day would we be railing at 79 bill diff with this amount of hash added on vs were we are at now being at 103 bil diff and still seeing a 35% increase..  do you understand what im trying to say? 

to be more clear.. how many block day would it be today if we were still at 79 bill diff.. just curious:)

Net Hashrate

1,050,717.03 TH/s still climbing

Best Regards
d57heinz

yeah it may have done it on 12- 27- 2015   we did 202 blocks that day.

so 202/144 =  1.41 x 668ph = 937ph.  may have been short on the  27 of dec.

to be sure it will do it today.   network is 743 ph  and we need a 1.35 factor  so 1.35 x 743 = 1,003.05 ph

to get a 1.35 factor we need a  195 block day  and we are on pace for this today Jan 4 2016

just exeded 1 exahash for 24 hour period.. i think we may have done it a couple days ago but i wasnt here to witness it.  Looks like my ppn number works out really well..  2 to three diff jumps and the 1 day peak comes true .  Looks like tho there has been some turning on and off. had they just turned on and left it .. i think 2-3 diff jumps would have taken us over 1 exahash for the 504 block avg

Net Hashrate

1,001,277.99 TH/s

it cant be seen here just yet. but its on its way.. 8 hour blocks avg way over 1 exahash.. approaching 1.2 exa hash for the second time in a week looks like

Best Regards
d57heinz

Im going to explain to you what i mean here.

so i took some of this info from Phils's thread..  


at last diff adjustment we are reported as by wisdom at
Date                    Difficulty             Change      Hash Rate
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s

http://btc.blockr.io/charts
Dec 6   157  9.03 % increase.  hashrate = 618,771,100.3505264 gh/s so if we stayed at this hash 157 blocks for the day would be the norm until the next diff adjustment.

new norm at 9 % network hash increase = 157 blocks for day
Dec 7   149   5.01 % decrease from the previous day   hashrate = 587,770,668.222965 gh/s

norm for day is 149 blocks at 587 ph thru to next diff if hash stayed put
Dec 8   171  14.77 % increase over previous day  or a nethash rate of  674,525,618.8526747 gh/s

norm now is 171
Dec 9   174  1.75% increase over previous day nethashrate 686,329,817.179875 gh/s

new norm is now 174 blocks
Dec 10  212   21.84 % increase over previous day.. nethashrate  836,217,385.9537879  Now i know its not 960 .. i found that to be interesting aswell. But i thought it would most definitely depend on the datapoints. If blockr uses say 12 pm to 12 pm every 24 hours to take there data points .. Whereas the wallet is always showing the last 24 hours of block solves..

Dec 11  157 so on and so on......
Dec 12   ?

So if the network usually goes thru 144 blocks a day. that's if every block is 10 min avg.  Now if you look at blockr and goto dec 10 you can see its 67 more blocks than normal.. So we take (211-144)/144 * 100.. That gives us an increase of 46.5% for that day.. So if we at 700 peta according to wisdom atm and it was higher!!. that would give us a network hash speed of 700 peta * 1.465 = 1025 petahash. but im sure that the network speed reported by wisdom was a bit lower when we got that surge.. Now the wallet takes an avg of how many blocks were solved in last 24 hours to calculate this output. Bitcoin-cli getnetworkhashps
the current reading is 667873644849506432 hashes per second.. Which isnt that far off from wisdom atm.. When i posted this the reading on the wallet was over 960 petahash.. this is not a prediction.. this is an actual network reading.. What im predicting is how soon we get to that hashrate and difficulty..  Hope that helps explain what im doing:)

Best Regards
d57heinz

stubborn one here aye..  Well lets just let it play out and see who is right and who is bogus here . lol

Best Regards
d57heinz
Im going to explain to you what i mean here.

so i took some of this info from Phils's thread..  

http://btc.blockr.io/charts
Dec 6   157
Dec 7   149
Dec 8   171
Dec 9   174
Dec 10  212
Dec 11  157
Dec 12   ?

So if the network usually goes thru 144 blocks a day. that's if every block is 10 min avg.  Now if you look at blockr and goto dec 10 you can see its 67 more blocks than normal.. So we take (211-144)/144 * 100.. That gives us an increase of 46.5% for that day.. So if we at 700 peta according to wisdom atm and it was higher!!. that would give us a network hash speed of 700 peta * 1.465 = 1025 petahash. but im sure that the network speed reported by wisdom was a bit lower when we got that surge.. Now the wallet takes an avg of how many blocks were solved in last 24 hours to calculate this output. Bitcoin-cli getnetworkhashps
the current reading is 667873644849506432 hashes per second.. Which isnt that far off from wisdom atm.. When i posted this the reading on the wallet was over 960 petahash.. this is not a prediction.. this is an actual network reading.. What im predicting is how soon we get to that hashrate and difficulty..  Hope that helps explain what im doing:)

Best Regards
d57heinz

Then he should call it a 'predictive" number, not keep refering to an instant PEAK number (which was NOT valid over a 24 hour period despite his bogus claim about that) as the current hashrate.

@ QunitLeo

 predictive peak number or PPN  is what I coined as a catch phrase for d57heinz's number prediction method.

At first I though you were right and his idea was not good.  I argued with him then after reading all his posts and my posts I realized he could be right I  do see a correlation.

  I went back for about 25-26 adjustments  and the ppn comes true ⅔ of the time within 4 jumps. I don't like being wrong but I was wrong at least ⅔ wrong for the last 25-26 jumps
This was in a time when we had negative jumps .

When you go back to higher diff years. like the gpu years and the very early asic time the PPN number  came true faster.

like 2 or 3 jumps.

He has a valid system of prediction.

⅔ is way better then a coin toss.

I did state in my subject that this was over a 24 hour period.. this may have no significance to you. But ive been using this for a long time to predict where the hash is headed...  Give a couple of diff adjustments. not a couple weeks.. Id say 2 - 3 diff adjustments..  check out http://nextdifficulty.com/  you can see it clearly here.. it didnt catch the moment when it hit 960 but its close enough you can see whats going on.


Best Regards
d57heinz

We would hope they do it slowly, if China was going to disrupt bitcoin. Else everyone else will be processing transactions. I can't bear to think what kind of mining power is hosted out of China.

exactly.. And you think we had a backlog of transactions before!!.. Imagine half the network is forced off and we have min 20 min block times.(maybe bigger blocks would alleviate this issue to some degree.)   Decentralization is key to Bitcoin success.. i think as this progresses we will see more that come to this realization!.

Best Regards
d57heinz

if china raided and destroyed all bitcoin mines it would be quite an interesting development.

Yes i would agree.  But i do think there are many places running still that can write off the farm costs.  Thus giving them a bit of an edge. the problem i think we have is that all that old gear isnt really in the hands of miners like you and i.. its in Huge farms that have prolly less than 5 c power.  Thus allowing for s3 and s4 still.. I can see when those machines start to only break even that they start swapping to the newest equipment..  

This shows the pools that got the surge in hash..  http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a  

I really think this is hw tests or a large farm doing tests on its network and making adjustments.  Thus the crazy swings..  

But i also have to think that if 10% variance is normal then we could have potentially had a bit of a spike of variance coupled with a large farm turning on.  

But we did drop 300 ph just in last 8 hrs.. so i cant imagine that this is just us little miners doing this.And why would they shut them off they are still profitable atm?..  I have firm suspicion that its the same person doing it.. That graph i posted above shows that antpool and f2pool both rose in hash at the same time..

I'm gonna bet on the price this go around till the diff stabilizes for a cpl months.. Then ill see where hw prices are.

Edit.. Thanks for the ppn i like that:)  also the diff would be over 130 billion at that hashrate. I didn't record it for some reason when it hit its peak.. My mpos does a nice job calculating it for me i just have to be around to catch it.

Best regards
d57heinz

I dont mine for the money, i dont give a crap about the profit, im using hardware that doesnt ROI. I support the idea of bitcoin.

So maybe look in the mirror before you call someone a hypocrite. The Chinese are destroying Bitcoin (as well as their own air) thats a fact.

Looks like someone added some new equipment or expanded operations using similar existing equipment.

The mining arms race continue.

 It would take a lot more than that, there are quite a few major farms outside of China.
 It would probably do some major hit to Bitcoin price if that happened, though.

 And again, you're looking at an INSTANTANIOUS estimate that has very little to no meaning.

 We MIGHT hit 963xxx sustained TH in a couple weeks though, at the current rate of REAL hashrate increase.



 I'm starting to wonder about that KnC announcement. Would not be the first time they made claims they later had to retract.
 I find it interesting that the only definitive "full custom 14nm" announcement (Innosilicon A3/A4) doesn't claim sub-0.1 just close to that level (with final specs not absolutely announced).
 I also find it interesting that KnC's pool hasn't shown any significant hashrate increase for a long time now.

 I would NOT be supprised if BitFury finally got it's next-gen chip into production, and gear based on that being part of the reason for the current hashrate climb.

 Part of it COULD be BW.com/Lketc getting the B-Eleven into production a bit earlier than most of us expected.

The wallet and that chain.so website are using extremely low number of blocks for calculations, 24 hour hashrate looks like this:
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Still the growth is jawdropping...

Edit: You are probably right with that 24hrs hashrate, my own site nextdifficulty.com shows the same but I didn't notice before because I had to readjust axis intervals on my chart 

Mining has become a business with very large barrier of entry, this is really not good for decentralization. Chinese government only need to take down those large Chinese mining pools to heavily disrupt the bitcoin network

well as long as they do not 51%ed the network who really care, and they will not do it, because it will go against their nice profit

also no miners are interested in supporting bitcoin, this is a well know things, they are there only for the profit, otherwise one should remove the reward if you want to be less hypocrite

The bitcoin network is pretty much controlled by corporations now, Chinese corporations with no interest in the health of the bitcoin network. Power consumption for them is not even a concern, i mean just look at their air pollution crisis and how little they care.

I think Satoshi would have been very disappointed with how things turned out and how much a couple big businesses control the network.

I suspect the large miners are busy replacing their 0.25 Joule/Gigahash and upwards miners with sub 0.1 J/Gh 16nm miners.  KNC have had sub 0.1 chips since July and it is months since Bitfury announced their 16nm tapeout.  I have no doubt others are very rapidly moving to sub 0.1 J/Gh chips.

So just think of it as racks of older miners being pulled out and replaced with sub 0.1 J/Gh miners.

Indeed, this wall of diff will be interesting to follow

this type of growth has a big ripple effect.

Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455      407,718,729 GH/s     price 230


Dec 10 2015  93,879,816,253                  735,060,070 GH/s  price 415                 current coinbase

Dec 10 2015    119,000,000,000             963,731,060 GH/s    price 415               d57's predictive peak number

I gave you a catch phrase  ppn or predictive peak number.


That sep 04 number was mostly all pre s-7 or .51watt  at best gear

So the monster surge has  happen or your ppn has come in.  this tidal wave if accurate means

407ph of   .51watt or worse gear
556 ph of .29 watt or better gear

all that 407ph is now very close to under water if it is at 10 cents or higher.  yeah say half of the sept 4 gear was .51 watt and the rest averaged a .75 watt  that would be 200ph of gear that will stop making money at the end of this adjustment.

So we have a very interesting dynamic setting up here...    will price rise to allow that gear to mine or will a lot of gear drop off next jump.

That is ridiculous. I've already been pushed out. When you have limited electrical power to expand your mining setup and have enough cash to only run at about 4TH/s with your power consumption you don't have a lot of options.

I'd agree on the purchasing aspect. Unless you have a couple thousand dollars to throw away and it wouldn't hurt you if you never got it back, mining is virtually pointless. It's incredible the small guys can even hang on at all at this point. It's still a great feeling though to know you have machines "busting their balls" for you to make some bitcoin at all hours of the day..

Price   417.10 USD/฿
Hashrate   963.73 PH/s
Activity   116 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   1,126
Fee Rate   0.00014723 BTC
Fee paid by unconfirmed transactions for every 1,000 bytes of size.

https://chain.so/BTC

as per the wallet 
963,731.06 TH/s

Excited that the network is growing along with the price but as a miner im being pushed out .. So I think my plan now is to buy coins.. With the price seeming to follow diff.. and the halving coming faster and faster.. i feel like a push in price is inevitable.  I think at the rate of network hash increase you could profit much better buying coins now than any mining machine can do.. most orders are preorders and i think that is for a good reason.. It will increase 10 - 20 % in diff by time you get miner thus allowing manufactures to bank.. Just my thoughts anyway..


Best Regards
d57heinz