BTC outcome shortly after August 1st?

White sugar

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Quote from: alyssa85 on June 06, 2017, 04:56:00 AM

Quote from: sonicd0012 on June 06, 2017, 12:07:30 AM

What is the typical consensus here on the decision and its short term BTC affect on August 1st?

1. Price falls massively
2. Price goes up even higher ?

Thanks

I'm hearing people saying they'll be pulling their coins off teh exchanges because otherwise they might lose money (the exchange will feature only one part of the fork instead of both).

If people are pulling coins out and not trading, then the price will fall.

I think when ETH forked to create ETH and ETC, the price fell dramatically and took a year to get back up.

If people take the coins out of exchange, then the volume will get lower, and the price can rise or fall on lower volumes.

But there is no way to know if too many people will withdraw the coins they would otherwise leave on exchange. Some people never leave coins on exchanges, and others use them as wallets and don't care, no matter what

South Park

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Quote from: alyssa85 on June 06, 2017, 04:56:00 AM

Quote from: sonicd0012 on June 06, 2017, 12:07:30 AM

What is the typical consensus here on the decision and its short term BTC affect on August 1st?

1. Price falls massively
2. Price goes up even higher ?

Thanks

I'm hearing people saying they'll be pulling their coins off teh exchanges because otherwise they might lose money (the exchange will feature only one part of the fork instead of both).

If people are pulling coins out and not trading, then the price will fall.

I think when ETH forked to create ETH and ETC, the price fell dramatically and took a year to get back up.

I don’t think that tells the whole story, in theory if something becomes more scarce then it become more valuable, what will happen is that everyone that planed to buy bitcoin and know what is happening will wait before making any move, the problem is not going to be supply, since I think many people will want to get out of bitcoin, the problem is going to be demand that could get a lot lower.

fluidjax

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I think what is important here is that coin holders get up to speed on what is going on with Segwit2x and Bip148, they understand the implications and are prepared to effectively vote wherever possible in support of the side they believe in.
As coin holders our power is limited but voting could mean running certain version of a bitcoin node, if you have miners it could mean mining and signalling certain bits, or pointing your miner at a different pool.
There is a power struggle going on in Bitcoin, and more than likely some parties have hidden agendas.

Democracy & consensus is a noisy business, so we shouldn't be put off by the in-fighting, but I think everyone should approach this with an open mind and try and form an opinion.

Denker

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Quote from: 1Referee on June 06, 2017, 03:30:35 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 06, 2017, 03:23:21 AM

also if it ends up in a split then there is a high chance of price dropping because of panic sells to put simply!

To add; If people end up transferring their coins to exchanges in order to dump if the price happens to go down (or for whatever other reason), people will not have coins sitting in both chains, in case a chain split becomes reality. You'll basically hand over the exchange in question free coins/money - don't do it. Coins should be kept offline under your own control.

Yes this is what many people seem to not understand. In terms of a chain split no one knows which chain will survive or if both will survive. Using exchanges during that crazy time would be extremely dumb. Therefore I recommend to hold the coins in your own wallet and wait until the dust has settled and we all know how things will continue. Otherwise you may burn a lot of money and the exchanges are the only ones who will laugh.

Golftech

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Quote from: hase0278 on June 06, 2017, 09:11:43 PM

If the consensus is good and many investors liked it, and if the consensus attracted more investors which will add to the demand, price goes up even higher and if current investors does not like it, price will fall massively but for now the short term effect if the consensus is made is still unknown but most probably price will go up. For now let's wait for it to happen and either hold or sell depending on your needs.

Good point mate its indeed that it will be depend on how the investors and traders will take this as long as its for the benefits of both end im positive that bitcoin value will still rise up and with the way its showing right now its really enjoying to watch our investment growing so we just needed to look for the best and hope that it will continue to rise up .

JakaE

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Quote from: pawel7777 on June 07, 2017, 02:50:12 AM

Quote from: 1Referee on June 06, 2017, 05:15:38 PM

Quote from: pawel7777 on June 06, 2017, 10:56:35 AM

They probably could support new "UASF coin", but that wouldn't make sense as no one is interested in creating and keeping alive another altcoin.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. From a financial point of view, and then from the side of the miners, wealthy entities in terms of Bitcoin holdings, and also the exchanges that have no moral problems with listing this alt (also from the point of them being major holders of user funds), this will be a killer opportunity to make gigantic profits. In that regard, it does matter where you store your coins.

You're missing a point. Sure it would be beneficial for exchanges to list alternative chain (afaik, I'm bit out of the loop though), but they won't as no one intends to create an altcoin. In short, UASF either succeeds, taking miners, rest of nodes and economy with them, or it fails and UASF nodes either go back to legacy chain (and look for other ways to push segwit, i.e. BIP149) or rage-quit for good.

Also, it could be extremely complicated from technical standpoint to list both chains, as exchanges don't know when and if the split will happen.

The last time when there was a lot of talk about splitting (Bitcoin Unlimited), a lot of exchanges said that they would support a newly created coin.
Do you guys think the situation will be different this time round?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/18-bitcoin-exchanges-say-theyre-ready-for-a-bitcoin-split/

pawel7777

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Quote from: 1Referee on June 06, 2017, 05:15:38 PM

Quote from: pawel7777 on June 06, 2017, 10:56:35 AM

They probably could support new "UASF coin", but that wouldn't make sense as no one is interested in creating and keeping alive another altcoin.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. From a financial point of view, and then from the side of the miners, wealthy entities in terms of Bitcoin holdings, and also the exchanges that have no moral problems with listing this alt (also from the point of them being major holders of user funds), this will be a killer opportunity to make gigantic profits. In that regard, it does matter where you store your coins.

You're missing a point. Sure it would be beneficial for exchanges to list alternative chain (afaik, I'm bit out of the loop though), but they won't as no one intends to create an altcoin. In short, UASF either succeeds, taking miners, rest of nodes and economy with them, or it fails and UASF nodes either go back to legacy chain (and look for other ways to push segwit, i.e. BIP149) or rage-quit for good. If exchanges were to list it, they'd have to keep it alive themselves.

Also, it could be extremely complicated from technical standpoint to list both chains, as exchanges don't know when and if the split will happen.

Quote

this will be a killer opportunity to make gigantic profits. In that regard, it does matter where you store your coins.

It's not in exchanges' best interest to fuck with Bitcoin's integrity. They could get more trade volume, but would crash the price resulting in less $ fiat profit. It's completely different case than with bilateral ETH/ETC split.

hase0278

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If the consensus is good and many investors liked it, and if the consensus attracted more investors which will add to the demand, price goes up even higher and if current investors does not like it, price will fall massively but for now the short term effect if the consensus is made is still unknown but most probably price will go up. For now let's wait for it to happen and either hold or sell depending on your needs.

freedomno1

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Quote from: sonicd0012 on June 06, 2017, 12:07:30 AM

What is the typical consensus here on the decision and its short term BTC affect on August 1st?

1. Price falls massively
2. Price goes up even higher ?

Thanks

Uncertain outcome the value could end up in multiple scenarios
All we know is that we will own both sides of a fork situation making this an insurance play.
If a person owns both sides of the chain they are covered in the event of the split but the value of the coins held could easily be entirely different, its hard to call a bullish or bearish sentiment on that because the benefits of a Segwit fork may outweight the losses or vice versa.

1Referee

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Quote from: pawel7777 on June 06, 2017, 10:56:35 AM

They probably could support new "UASF coin", but that wouldn't make sense as no one is interested in creating and keeping alive another altcoin.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. From a financial point of view, and then from the side of the miners, wealthy entities in terms of Bitcoin holdings, and also the exchanges that have no moral problems with listing this alt (also from the point of them being major holders of user funds), this will be a killer opportunity to make gigantic profits. In that regard, it does matter where you store your coins.

bamboylee

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If everything goes well and bip 148 gets the support that it needs, everything will go well. But if not, then there will be a chain split and this effect may drive the price down. And if you are not careful with your bitcoin, you might lose them too. SO before august 1, be sure to transfer you bitcoins on wallets that you control the private keys.

CyberKuro

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Quote from: 1Referee on June 06, 2017, 03:30:35 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 06, 2017, 03:23:21 AM

also if it ends up in a split then there is a high chance of price dropping because of panic sells to put simply!

To add; If people end up transferring their coins to exchanges in order to dump if the price happens to go down (or for whatever other reason), people will not have coins sitting in both chains, in case a chain split becomes reality. You'll basically hand over the exchange in question free coins/money - don't do it. Coins should be kept offline under your own control.

Good advice for everyone, but we are too early to judge it will split the network. I hope it won't ever happen for real, as bitcoin price may fall down so far and need a long time to rise again.

Quote from: pooya87 on June 06, 2017, 03:23:21 AM

its success however can lead to activation of SegWit and clearing of mempool and finally reaching a scaling solution. this can help in long term price rise.

I prefer to consider this is what will happen if Segwit be activated and blocksize increase but we hope this upgrade program support various nodes before. So, many people will support this activation.

leowonderful

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The big thing here is that there will essentially be 42 million bitcoins during the split, which could bring price down dramatically on both chains. Just this alone could have a big impact on pricing after one chain gets the consensus, one reason why I'd like for BTC to get to a higher price point now to somewhat cushion the blow. Alts are not a particularly reliable store of value like BTC but I'd assume many people will pour their money into alts and come back once price stabilizes again.

tiggytomb

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I think we will hear from the exchanges as we get closer and if it looks like it is happening. The end of the day they want to keep their volume so I would imagine a lot of them would carry both.

The price it could go either way we just don't know.

Jon Connor

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Quote from: 1Referee on June 06, 2017, 03:30:35 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 06, 2017, 03:23:21 AM

also if it ends up in a split then there is a high chance of price dropping because of panic sells to put simply!

To add; If people end up transferring their coins to exchanges in order to dump if the price happens to go down (or for whatever other reason), people will not have coins sitting in both chains, in case a chain split becomes reality. You'll basically hand over the exchange in question free coins/money - don't do it. Coins should be kept offline under your own control.

This ^. Hold your coins off of the exchanges during this period because if a split happens you will have both bip148 coins and the legacy coins. If you have them on an exchange you may only have one of them (whatever the exchange decides). Plus the combined market cap of both coins will be greater than just one. I think more and more people will realize this as the August 1st date approaches and there will be a panic buy since you wont want to be trading bitcoin on exchanges during the month of August. You wont know what bitcoins you'll be getting! Buy as many as you can now and put them in cold storage knowing you will have both then in the future trade for the one the market decides and get more coins.

pawel7777

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Quote from: 1Referee on June 06, 2017, 03:30:35 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on June 06, 2017, 03:23:21 AM

also if it ends up in a split then there is a high chance of price dropping because of panic sells to put simply!

To add; If people end up transferring their coins to exchanges in order to dump if the price happens to go down (or for whatever other reason), people will not have coins sitting in both chains, in case a chain split becomes reality. You'll basically hand over the exchange in question free coins/money - don't do it. Coins should be kept offline under your own control.

If blockchain splits, it's going to get weird. It's not a bilateral hard-fork. If UASF doesn't get support of majority of hash power (nor majority of nodes), the exchanges, even for the legal reasons, would have to stick to the 'legacy' chain (and recognise it as Bitcoin). They probably could support new "UASF coin", but that wouldn't make sense as no one is interested in creating and keeping alive another altcoin. So either UASF will succeed in scaring the miners into SegWit signalling (unlikely) or will just die out (likely).

Either way, there won't be 2 tradable chains, so it doesn't really matter where will you keep your bitcoins.

As for the price, I'd expect a minor panic in 2nd half of July with some people temporarily escaping into fiat o alts.

alyssa85

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Quote from: sonicd0012 on June 06, 2017, 12:07:30 AM

What is the typical consensus here on the decision and its short term BTC affect on August 1st?

1. Price falls massively
2. Price goes up even higher ?

Thanks

I'm hearing people saying they'll be pulling their coins off teh exchanges because otherwise they might lose money (the exchange will feature only one part of the fork instead of both).

If people are pulling coins out and not trading, then the price will fall.

I think when ETH forked to create ETH and ETC, the price fell dramatically and took a year to get back up.

1Referee

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 06, 2017, 03:23:21 AM

also if it ends up in a split then there is a high chance of price dropping because of panic sells to put simply!

To add; If people end up transferring their coins to exchanges in order to dump if the price happens to go down (or for whatever other reason), people will not have coins sitting in both chains, in case a chain split becomes reality. You'll basically hand over the exchange in question free coins/money - don't do it. Coins should be kept offline under your own control.

pooya87

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we can't tell unless it happens, or at least when it is much closer to today than it is right now.
the BIP148 which is set on August 1st date is not having much support at the moment and if it continues this way, it may never take place and its failure most probably won't have any effect on the price.

its success however can lead to activation of SegWit and clearing of mempool and finally reaching a scaling solution. this can help in long term price rise.

also if it ends up in a split then there is a high chance of price dropping because of panic sells to put simply!

sonicd0012

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What is the typical consensus here on the decision and its short term BTC affect on August 1st?

1. Price falls massively
2. Price goes up even higher ?

Thanks

Topic: BTC outcome shortly after August 1st? (Read 1614 times)