Topic: BTC price increase estimate for the day/week stock market crash occurs (Read 1176 times)

The bitcoin price will not change too much during the day of stock market crash. Its market cap is too small. Not many players.

probably will stay the same or decrease if all sudden as the one from 1929, because people will be more worried to have money to drink and what instead of investing.

if is an anticipated event, then we probably will see increase in price, but not skyrocket

Except that you clearly don't know what Bitcoin is or how it works, and no, no government can destroy it, it would be like destroying bittorrent... I wonder what are those 600 posts of yours!

If the stock market crashed on any magnitude similar to 2008 or 1929, that money will not flow into Bitcoin. In a time of crises and more so in a time of uncertainty, people will not be pulling their cut losses from one risk asset (in risk off mode) and injecting it into the riskiest of all assets, especially if they don't understand it. Dumb people aren't even that dumb. Investors want to understand the what/why of their next venture. They won't blindly move to Bitcoin. There will be some money coming in, of course, but it won't be pouring in by the trillions. Quit asking for the masses to be wiped out so you can be better off! After all, you need them more than they need you.

Gold isn't going up 4x within a week either, but I still think that is more likely than wall street deciding that Bitcoin is the savior. Gold is well known and older than your god, so investors aren't afraid to put money there. Silver would also be a good thing to be holding when markets come crashing down. As someone else said, it still may be years before this "imminent crash" occurs. It all depends on how the cards are played. If another round of QE were to be let loose, stocks will continue it's skyward trajectory. That's not to say it won't all come crashing down after, but that could be a ways off yet... Simply deferring the problem to another generation makes it not this generations problem, right?

Except it is vapour, that a government such as China (or the US, but the US won't cos Bitcoin isn't a threat to them), could destroy on a whim.

Gold, eh?
But what kind of gold? A paper saying that you have gold? Or the metal itself? The first one is way too risky, if the fund host is a con man may sell the same gold over and over, the second one, if you need to go abroad, good luck on bring that with you... 

Bitcoin has properties no other investment have.

I'm a bit surprised that bitcoin is rising today as the stock market is getting shat upon.  Bitcoin is definitely not as safe as stocks, relatively speaking--if a flight to safety happens, it should be toward precious metals and things like that.  Don't know about an estimate for the price of bitcoin but I'm happy to see it rising.

That was a very long post to say that you have no idea what will happen.

You REALLY have no clue on how Bitcoin works... if the Chinese switch their mining rigs off, all it happens is a little delay on transactions until the system readjusts its difficulty.
In the rate, goes down... goes up... goes down... goes up again... it's the cycle of life.

Ultimately a solar powered raspberry in the middle of the desert with satellite internet is all it takes for bitcoin to carry on...
 

Majority of mining capacity is in China. What would happen to the integrity and functionality of the p2p system if all those miners were forced to switch off overnight?

Majority of Bitcoin volume is also in CNY. Whilst the majority of that volume is essentially fake (i.e generated by front running HFT bots and 0% exchange fees), the Chinese exchanges still lead BTC, because that is where the biggest BTC demand is coming from and the market knows it. So what would happen to Bitcoin spot price if steady Chinese demand, suddenly turned into Chinese panic supply?

You guys who think that a government such as China (or indeed USA) couldn't take down Bitcoin with a click of a finger make me laugh.

LOL

Fucking idiots.

So... what do you think that can happen to Bitcoin?!
We will no longer be able to generate energy, return to dark ages, and therefore can't use computers? Because that's the only way for it to disappear.

Maybe you need to learn what Bitcoin is, before you make assumptions!

LOL

Like I said:


P.S. Stocks have been a blood bath for the last two weeks and Bitcoin has been even worse than a bloodbath, so erm, if is an asset where capital fleeing equities is meant to flee into, why aren't we up at $500 right now?

Bitcoin isn't gold, it's better. Bitcoin is gold with mobility.
During crisis the governments' behavior tends to protectionism, Bitcoin can become the trend for international business.
The Chinese are a false question, Bitcoin is now far from being a pump and dump scheme and nobody controls it. It's the first world wide without "central authorities" currency. Its mobility and the Chinese regime makes it particularly tasty for them, but they will not be alone on this race in the event of a depression (and stocks today looks like a bloodbath, all red).

I think there are many moving parts involved with this and settling into believing a simplified false paradigm could prove quite costly here. The First stop, for Capital fleeing crashing equities, is Fiat. So the value of Fiat V everything else goes up. However, depending on the policy of the central bank controlling a particular currency, will determine which currency capital flows into. With the Fed raising rates every so slightly, whilst the rest of the developed world continues to keep the printing presses cranked up at full steam, the USD is a likely bet for capital fleeing equities...So can the USD Index really keep trending parabolically higher? And if investors are going to flee to USD, then may as well go to US treasury bonds and get paid interest on investment, especially desirable in a deflationary environment.

The whole paradigm of capital fleeing equities and into Gold, hasn't really existed since the times when currencies were backed by Gold. For Gold to become King once again, we would have to reach a point where the market loses faith in US Bonds and Treasuries, and for that to happen, we would have to see a widespread dumping of US Bonds onto the Market, forcing ther Fed to either allow the US bond market to crash (that would be good for Gold), or crank up the printing presses and start buying up all the US treasuries, but thus causing hyperinflation of USD currency supply in the process. This would be terrible for USD and all currencies globally which are essentially backed by USD, but fantastic for Gold and all other commodities (and terrible for the majority of humanity)

These days however, if we have a plain old recession or indeed actual deflation, Gold, along with all other commodities, are likely to go down in value. For Gold, Oil, Wheat, etc to increase in value, markets need to be booming, credit is expanding, and we have inflation. I think more likely than not, we could roughly slot Bitcoin into the commodity or 'hard asset' bracket. It isn't a business that earns profits through economic activity, it isn't a currency which is backed by the credit worthiness of a government or the monetary policy of it's central bank, Bitcoin is a thing that has a specific purpose; namely, the fast cheap transfer of wealth around the globe.

Bitcoin however, has it's own story. It is still a very small market, and a market which seems to be controlled by a cabal operating out of China. They seem to be running Bitcoin as both a Capital Flight vehicle for circumnavigating Chinese Capital Controls, and also as a hedge against CNY devaluation. When CNY devalues, Bitcoin is ramped. However, name of game isn't really CNY-BTC, it is CNY-USD. Thus when the Chinese ramp Bitcoin, it only gets up as high as sucker retail investors can take it (after the Chinese have ramped it), before BTC bought with CNY, are converted with both fists into USD, and the market comes crashing back down to where the Cabal are wanting to become net buyers once again. Wash, rinse, repeat.

With all that said. Under the circumstances of a real economic panic, and a flight from national currencies (especially the CNY), into the USD, Bitcoin could buck the trend of all other commodities, and have it's own bubble. Even though the purpose of the bubble will be Capital Flight into USD, the bull run itself, will attract investors to Bitcoin which would serve to power the bubble higher still. However, all the time, Bitcoin is infested by dominant Market Makers who can and will pull out the rug from Bitcoin's feet, and cash in big fkn style at any moment. Also, if Bitcoin were to grow to become a major route for Capital leaving China, the Chinese government could ban it overnight. Make dealing with it, or mining it an imprisonable offence, and Bitcoin would be done overnight, leaving a vacuum for a more up to date Crypto to move into.

Bitcoin is a ultra high risk investment. Bitcoin is not Gold. Bitcoin is not a 'safe haven' asset, and it never will be. Anyone viewing it as anything other than a Gravy Train, Smash n Grab sort of investment vehicle, needs to lay off the Kool Aid. i.e. the majority on forums such as this.

In the next crisis, the US dollar will also devalue dramatically as that crisis will happen in the US. That is caused by too much money supply.

It might actually crash. Bitcoin is treated like a commodity these days.
People would prefer to hold cash (fiat) during a crisis.

First of all no crash is like the other. Now is the question when is this point in time? It could also be that the DJIA and S&P500 will rally additional years until such a crash happens.
I'm not sure about BTC in this scenario, maybe we will see some kind of rally but don'T expect it will be THE RALLY.
In a 1929 scenario .gov would not let all the cash flow in something unregulated like Bitcoin.

If there is a big depression like 1929, there will be less investment, and delation pressure. So the value of the currency will increase.

Assuming we have another 1929 stock market crash (looks inevitable at some point in time), what do you reckon the BTC price will be the day it occurs/7 days later.  Just a wild guess, but I'm guessing if there wasn't a Comex run, gold would be up 2x to 4x within the week.  I think the implosion would cause big liquidity problems (deflationary aspect) that would prevent gold from just going completely into orbit, but it would still go up a lot, just not as much as you'd think.

For BTC, miners and traders selling would probably vanish from the market, and the market cap is low, so things would be wide open for whoever wants to pump it.  Whatever gold does, I think BTC would get higher returns.  People can dump a lot of money into Bitcoin now without much friction, and you wouldn't have the problem of trying to source gold and ending up with "paper gold".  So Bitcoin might be a huge target for people trying to conserve wealth.