Topic: BTC Season vs ALT season as regards Investment (Read 471 times)

I always considered sticking to both bitcoin and 2-3 top altcoins to hold even in the bitcoin bull run and the alt season.
Anyone can say that right now is the time for bitcoin bull run and we should wait until the alt season starts.
Only when bitcoin consoldiates and altcoins start pumping we can say that the alt season has started.
Altcoins are good for short term profits but picking which altcoin to invest in is the tricky part.

Yeah, but if you look at the dominance, it is still Bitcoin, and I think if there will be altseason coming, at least the dominance of Bitcoin should be reduce. It's because right now all the money is on Bitcoin market as we are really pushing for that 6 digits.

The best alts that we have, Ethereum is still way behind it's previous high.

So there is no altcoin season yet, the money is still on the Bitcoin market, in my opinion. And there should be at least another set of investors, that is willing to invest billions in altcoins to be able to at least stay abreast with what is going on with Bitcoin.

What altcoin season are you talking about? As I've said, altcoins are stuck in their past ATHs while Bitcoin has been breaking one ATH after another. The most solid and trusted altcoins like ETH, LTC, XRP, and so on have yet to register new ATHs for years.

The garbage Solana is almost near its 2021 ATH but that's only in terms of USD. In terms of BTC, it's still far from its 2021 ATH. BNB, on the other hand, had registered a new ATH several months ago but, again, that's just against the USD. Since we're talking here of BTC versus altcoin, BNB's ATH remains in 2022.

The point is, if we're pitting altcoins against Bitcoin, the data clearly show that Bitcoin is the winner. The top altcoins failed to outperform Bitcoin. LTC's ATH in BTC is still in 2013. ETH's is in 2017. XRP's is also in 2017.

The altcoins season always emerge when the price of Bitcoin is on the bull run. We can always make money from the market in this period just like it is when the price of Bitcoin is skyrocketing. We are already in the altcoins season and we all have to know that which is why we have been seeing so many altcoins hitting 10X and more with days. By the time the price of Bitcoin hit $100K as we all have been anticipating, we are going to see altcoins moving rapidly in price. For all Bitcoin enthusiastic, let all keep our eyes on the Bitcoin movement so we don't miss any opportunity of buying more if the opportunity arise.

Monero is the only cryptocurrency among thousands of altcoin that come closely to Bitcoin in decentralization.

If you want to use a decentralized blockchain, but want to have an alternative for Bitcoin blockchain that is the best, you will find only one, Monero blockchain. It has one more big advantage, Monero blockchain is a private one and it can give you better privacy and anonymity than Bitcoin blockchain for your fund storage and transactions.

With Monero, there is a big risk that governments globally don't like it and risk of law enforcement on centralized exchanges to delist Monero is very high. We have to return to ask why people with concern on privacy and anonymity at the end, practically store their Monero on centralized exchanges.

But then this begs a question.  What Ethereum typically does is simply copy what Bitcoin does.  Except only a few cases where positive News come for Ethereum and it has a short shoot up.  So why invest in Ethereum then if it simply copies Bitcoin?

For example, I use Monero.  And while it did not outperform Bitcoin so far, I do not mind it because I am using Monero as a Currency.  My primary motive is not Investing in it to make Money.

But in your case where Money matters, why put your Assets into a Cryptocurrency that may or may not do better than Bitcoin.  And even if it does better, it does for only a short time.  In my mind it makes more sense to then simply not diversify any more and go all in to Bitcoin.

This is what I have been saying and I don't think that there will be any season called altcoins season again. If not your explanation, I had thought that the altcoins season is when altcoins will enter the bull market while bitcoin will not move as high as altcoins. I know that something like this will not happen and that is why I do not believe in altcoins season.

The simple expectation is, the bitcoin will rise as the king of the market and altcoins  will follow. Obviously, some altcoins will rise more than the others but they will not out perform bitcoin.

BTC season and altcoin season do happen in different time. But most often, we are bound to witness more BTC season compared to the altcoins. And the success of bitcoin won’t guarantee the success of altcoins is next in line. Sometimes there are even no remarkable altcoins that have become highly profitable in the market.

This is why I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s better to invest more with bitcoin and only few but chosen altcoins. Ethereum creates a perfect combination for bitcoin, if you stick to them, losses will be mostly avoided and profits will be maximize if you stick to long term hodling.

If you want to hunt airdrops, you can use following tools for filtering projects with considerable raised funds and potentially can give community good airdrops.
https://crypto-fundraising.info/projects
https://cryptorank.io/ico

Additionally, you can use https://defillama.com/airdrops

If you receive good altcoin airdrops, it's time for you to exchange those altcoins to bitcoin and hold your bitcoin. From free altcoins to free bitcoins, it's big win for you.

The Altcoin season indicator or index as well as other technical analysis tool helps you to know the market trends and know your entry and exit points. Platforms like CMC,Coingecko, Binance, Coinbase and Trading View provides you with the best tools to monitor changes and analyse a companies data.
I got into crypto through airdrops so yes I trade Altcoins, it’s a gambling habit.

And that's just the gospel truth because altcoins now are pure gamble so it will be very convenient for traders who are willing to risk their money in a short interval of time unlike bitcoin that investors have good confidence in, since even if the price goes down, it still has the potentiality to skyrocket again. Besides, bitcoin is too valuable to be traded with other coins or Fiats, so the altcoins season is merely for traders who would want to gamble with the volatility of each coin.

That is smart way to think about investing in cryptocurrencies. Many people invest in Bitcoin but also try other coins like Ethereum BNB and XRP to earn more. However it is hard to know which ones will do well. Investing in these other coins can be risky so be careful. Their values can change quickly. Bitcoin recent high price suggests upward trend but other coins may wait for Bitcoin continued success. To reduce risks research carefully and set achievable goals and spread investments wisely and watch market changes. Investing in other coins requires thought and willingness to take calculated risks.

Cryptocurrency market now is very different than years ago with so many abundant altcoins and to have an altcoin season like previous years and bull market cycles, it needs bigger capital in this market to boost altcoins.

Altcoins in this season are harder to rise than previous cycles and it is more noticeable with old era altcoins like Litecoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum Classic, Ripple, Monero. I believe that Proof of Work altcoins are safer than Proof of Stake, Smart Contract altcoins but in this market cycle, these old altcoins lack of enough capital inflow to rise.

With thousands of altcoins and with many categories of altcoins, bull market must be very long, and longer than previous cycles to give all categories of altcoin enough time to rise. Will all altcoin categories have opportunities for their own altcoin seasons?

https://coinmarketcap.com/cryptocurrency-category/
https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories

Is there still an altcoin season in the market at this point in time?

This is kind of nostalgic. Several years ago, there are altcoin seasons, a time when all of them fly. You can even close your eyes and randomly pick altcoins in the top 10, 20, 50, even 100 and when that season comes, you feel like you're a high-caliber trader or investor.

These days, it seems there aren't altcoin seasons anymore. There are times when one or two, a handful, or some alts rise, but it isn't like before when the upward movement is en masse.

Bitcoin season is more secure and should be our go to season because when you invest in Bitcoin you have some level of trust that the market isn't going to disappoint you but altcoins has more risk and it's more like you're just gambling and not doing any real investment.

When the altcoins season starts, chances are that you're likely to miss it too because it isn't that easy to detect and when you do detect it, the market might have already gone up and you're left chasing the leftover profits.

It mightn't be worth the risk then that you're taking because the early buyers can dump on you and you're left hodling a bag that you didn't bargain for.

Our focus should be on Bitcoin and that should have our largest investments. Investing in altcoins season should be like we gambling and not having any guarantee that our gambles will pay so we don't get disappointed when it doesn't.

I won't even encourage anyone to hold altcoin for long than bitcoin because if there is any slight move on bitcoin were it changes directions automatically it affect the altcoin, meaning anyone who hold it is also running lost that is why it's not good for investor instead suit more to traders or those who are scalping to making some profits from every little changes that happens between these altcoins.

The thing is that bitcoin is largest market size of bitcoin, I know quite well that bitcoin is the largest factor in cryptocurrency and its obvious that bitcoin gives rise to altcoins, so many of coins have the light of increasing through altcoins, whereas some of the altcoins is still building to be strong in the market, that is why whenever bitcoin price decreases in the market or if bitcoin experience huge bearish it affects other coins, so bitcoin is the determinate of the market of cryptocurrencies to increase in the market, so I believe that bitcoin whatever that affects bitcoin also affects other coins, we need to understand such. For the aspect of investment, its altcoins that gives profit more than bitcoin most altcoins that have potentiality.

Oh I almost forget that at every bearish bottom we saw some black swan events and to avoid loss in alts we must wait for such events that's a good point and thanks for bringing it to my sight. I will keep it in mind. I will follow this method of yours along with 75% too to get more better results.

This fact and many other facts shared by some members in this thread are really going to improve the income alt season but I am not talking about buying alt in the bear market or after the bear market for the next cycle but for now. Do you think, we should follow this %75 thing now alone?

Usually people use Bitcoin as their main investment but some of them also invest in some altcoin that can increase in some terms. The altcoin such as Ethereum, BNB, XRP and others will be their choice to be additional investment. That will depends on each people which coins they want to be their investment. If they just focus on Bitcoin, that will be good for them but people are greedy and wants to make a big profit from altcoin and not just from Bitcoin. Having altcoin as the investment can make you worry because you don't know what altcoin that can increase later. Bitcoin price is already had a new ATH but altcoin is not yet moves and gets the altcoin season. So maybe the altcoin movements waiting for the Bitcoin rally and reach the real bull run. So be careful with your altcoin investment if you still hold for some altcoins.

Market in 2024 is different than years ago before the popular existence and appearances of stable coins on centralized exchanges, but one fact is the same, holding altcoins in years means losing your bitcoin.

If you look at chart of ETH/ BTC, you have been losing your bitcoin that used to buy ETH and hold ETH over years.

This chart can help to see this decreasing value of ETH in BTC. Choose Compare with BTC and newbies who love altcoins will see a hidden fact of altcoins.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum

As @tbct_mt2 mentioned, the altcoins season starts after a Bitcoin rally start, so without a real Bitcoin rally, there will be no altcoins rally, but if we look at the BTC/altcoins pair, even in the altcoins season, many altcoins perform poorly compared to Bitcoin.

In short, the altcoins season is good for traders, not investors.

Almost text book like.  Thank you for the image, it really does describe how an Altcoin Bull Run looks like.

Is it different however?  I have seen Doge Coin rocket before a Bitcoin or Altcoin Run last cycles.  Unless my mind plays games on me again.  To me, the Markets look no different to how they did last cycles.

When you have that number that is draw from performances of 50 top altcoins in the last 90 days, you're late. 90 days mean 3 months which is a long time and when you see 75% number to be sure that it's an altcoin season, you buy in, and you will stuck in a correction or ending of an altcoin season.

One thing to remember, when Bitcoin reaches to its all time high, altcoins won't have too long time like 3 months for their altcoin season and if you only participate in the altcoin season party after 3 months, you will like buy at peak of altcoin season.

The best time to buy altcoins is months like a half of year after Bitcoin finishes its bear market. After a half of year or 1 year since a bottom of bear market, what are worst already appeared and you will have less risk of black swan events to kill top altcoins. See examples with Terra and FTX, 1 year after these fiascos, things were better and no more black swan event.

Buying top altcoins 1 year after the bear market and hold them, don't wait for 75% figure as a confirmation of altcoin season to join.

It's a good topic and reminder. It's my first bull run in which I have invested some money, and now I was also looking to invest in alts but did not have much knowledge about the idea of how I can know when an alt season is coming, and here you just shared it. Haha, it's like I was having a question and coincidentally you just answered it.

Thanks for sharing this topic, and thanks to tbct_mt2 too, as he shared some good sources. I liked these sources full of informative material. The indicator is a good one, but should we depend on it alone or should we take other factors into account as well? BTW OP are you an alt trader?

Altcoin season starts with Ethereum, until there is another altcoin can take over the second position of Ethereum in a very solid way and maintain it for many months, even years. If it is only a quick flippening for a few days, weeks, it does not mean too much as a second biggest cryptocurrency by replacing Ethereum.

In my opinion, Ethereum will continue this leading role for altcoin market and it will be a leader of altcoin season in this market cycle and in future as well. I really don't believe we soon will have an altcoin that can take over this role of Ethereum.

Bull market peak is with Bitcoin first, then Ethereum lead altcoins to make its peak, next lower and smaller cap altcoins will have their shows and eventually altcoin season ends, bear market comes massively from Bitcoin to altcoins. Altcoins can peak about 1 month after Bitcoin before they start to crash.

If people missed chance at peaks, there will be a distribution phase, bounces back for second tops for people to take profit, cut loss and exit the market to avoid worse bear market.

Bitcoin is Indeed the driving force and chain that propel the entire cryptocurrency market space and for that, whatever happen in Bitcoin market liquidity will always have a reflection on the entire market so altcoins are not spared from the impact of Bitcoin on the market, so for me, I think both altcoins and Bitcoin exist within the same market atmosphere and are best regarded as a chain instead of being separated, there is no altcoins seasons without Bitcoin being the initiator of such market movement so the same also goes to all other market activities.


We can say that we are in a Bitcoin season right now, because within the last 48 hours, Bitcoin made multiple all time high price benchmark which some speculators are even predicting a more further increase in the Price of Bitcoin, so for sure, we have a lot of things to look out for in Bitcoin season right now.
But we can't say the same about altcoins, reason being that, even with in this period of price boom in the Bitcoin market, some of the high potential altcoins also recorded a lot of price increase that see them to getting close or even attaining all time high price too, so we can't go about separating each between Bitcoin and altcoins categories such as altcoins season and Bitcoin season.

Actually I wonder the same too if the narrative will be the same all over the years. Alt season always happened after bitcoin dominance finished but it seems were waiting for too long. Isnt that the alt season event has been abolish and people decides to focus on main narrative such as bitcoin alone and some tokens that are only relative to the most sector.

Altcoin season is the time where pump and dump are in their peak.
Well it is usually seen when the volatility of Bitcoin is quite low
Many for quick return start shifting to shitcoins.
Quite sometime Altcoin season is estimated by checking Bitcoin dominance in relation to the others and if it seems too high
Then there's a likelihood that the alt season is near.
Bitcoin season?
Still believe Bitcoin moves and others follows, so Altcoin season is still decided by Bitcoin itself.

Lol, this illustration is what came into my mind immediately after reading the first post of OP.
This one really tells everything about how the Bitcoin <-> Altcoins markets especially in a bull market or peak. I remember I kept seeing this way back around 2018 and I believe this still applies until now.

My sign once the alt season started is always Ethereum, we need Ethereum to make it's own move first after Bitcoin then there rest of altcoins for sure will follow.

Many people consider to use Bitcoin and altcoin for their investment. Those who already been in crypto space know that altcoin can gives them a big profit but they also know that it is not easy to pick the right altcoin as the investment.

The altcoin have a big risk for them so when they want to use altcoin as their investment, they must be careful and always analyze before decide. It seems some people search the altcoin first and invest on that because investing in altcoin will not need too much money. They can buy any potential altcoin and hold it for a short or middle term and sell it once the price jump higher.

After their profit from altcoin, they back to Bitcoin and buy it. But no matters what you will decide, you need to learn about the risk between investing in Bitcoin and altcoin. So I guess when Bitcoin can still increase and then stay for a while in a certain price, the altcoin season may come.

The cryptocurrency market is 24/7 lively and cryptocurrency enthusiasts don't sleep on their money. They are greedy and want to invest their capital for profit, reinvest it for more profit, the cycle of invest, reinvest is endless.

The most important condition for altcoin season is a bull run of Bitcoin that clearly is on going after breaking $75,000. We will have more than one year since November 2024 to possibly December 2025 for Bitcoin bull run. During the next 14 months, more or less than 14 months, there will be many opportunities for a massive altcoin season.

If you love altcoins, and are waiting for altcoin season, make sure you pick top altcoins that are safest for your capital. Top altcoins are also leaders for altcoin season when it starts.

Make sure you differentiate between true altcoin leaders, top altcoins and Top gainers when you use Top gainers/ losers on Coinmarketcap or Coingecko. Many shitcoins can appear in Top Gainers list for a day or several days, but they are not safe for your altcoin portfolio.

The cryptocurrency season or what so ever they call it is usually drive by bitcoin, the Altcoins just follow up once the move is on and there is where the idea of altcoin season comes in, so as the bull run is yet to start properly we to me are getting to start the bitcoin season which is the main season. When will the season be blown into full swing I will tell you that nobody knows of that. So to be on the safe side of the game it is easier with but ok to invest just any moment you have the opportunity to do so, take a look at how the market moved yesternight to this morning, someone who had the opportunity but were waiting for maybe a dip will be bitter now. So for me take away the season and invest into bitcoin when you see fit and settle for a long term hold

Even Bitcoin after achieving 2 ATH there are those who did not catch up with it in its low prices, as there were many past opportunities.

For me, I prefer the Bitcoin season greatly because Bitcoin is the main controller of the market and it is the one that sets the signal altcoins to move, which have not yet entered a bull season due to the growing interest from investors in Bitcoin and the liquidity flowing into it. However, this does not prevent the altcoins from having their time and role one day; that’s why I also focus a certain portion of my investment on promising altcoins in the market. Each season depends on the investor’s calculation of risks and the appropriate time for investment and financial management. Any good investor or trader will be able to achieve profits and double his capital in both seasons, as long as he know which coins to put his money into and rely on analysis to guide his vision.

We need to know the particular season we are in, bitcoin is not what we can just enter and do as we like, there is a serious need as a matter of urgency for us to know we are in for, knowing the way of performance on a particular season is not just what we can take for granted like that, begin we can't afford to go against the market direction and lost, this is why we have to handle the way we speculate over the market more serious for accuracy.


This is a fact.

I'm glad that you've said that investing for more altcoins means also that you're taking more risk. In the past, people thought that Bitcoin was expensive but then we're seeing that it has the lowest risk out there and the price of it keeps moving up. Some slips may happen, corrections are needed to happen and they are inevitable because it's part of it being volatile.

It's not actually the risk when we say altcoin season, it is the time when many alts are pumping that much after BTC just did. But when we say many alts are pumping doesn't mean that the majority of them will be. It's always different during the time that we'll be seeing it so, just be prepared and all matters now are those that have bought at the dip, you're in profit already. So, take it or keep it longer.

It's not the season that puts traders under higher risks but it's their choices of altcoins that they make. Generally, when Bitcoin goes up, most of the good and reputable altcoins go up as well, and if you are trading them or have bought them when the market was low, you will potentially get good returns with them. But, since some traders choose new altcoins, mostly those hyped up by their communities, they tend to be under higher risks because whether those altcoins will perform in the short term is a question mark.

Regardless of these factors and all the risks involved, most people are more into meme coins and new projects because they tend to provide quick profits. So, for the quick profits that they can potentially get, they risk their investment capital. Some of them succeed, and some fail and lose money. This is why, it's up to a trader whether they want to stay on the safer side with lower potential profits or take bigger risks to get higher returns.

Short-term profits are lucrative, but in my opinion, they are not worth risking large funds. So even if someone decides to target short-term gains, they should use smaller amounts.

It has been so long since I heard about alt seasons for the last time that I've been wondering whether it was something of the past or how much should we wait for the next one. The focus in Bitcoin this cycle is higher than I expected, with all the news about big companies and also Governments changing their minds about BTC, which can be seen in the increasing dominance since 2022, even if more and more cryptocurrencies have been launched to the market during this time.


ETH has been performing surprisingly bad lately. To me there will be no alt season until it starts to stand out.

The best indicator is yourself. Bitcoin is having the season for a long time, we have not yet met our expectations so many investors are still holding and not willing to sell until then so going into any Altcoin investment is playing risk at your own benefit or repercussion.

Many Altcoins will be out in due time following the recent Bitcoin movement claiming to follow the pump but it's best to keep close watch and decide on what to get involved, this is mostly the time Altcoin project are released to remove funds from investors because they will be carried out by the heavy multiplier along the bull run which might end up as false, clearly not all Altcoin are Bitcoin correlated.

Altcoin season starts when Bitcoin nearly completes its bull run and when institutional investors move their capital to Ethereum first, then next stop altcoins, midcap altcoins and it ends with lowcap altcoins.

However this market bull run looks to be different, months ago meme coins rocked first. Let's see what will happen with altcoins in last 2 months of 2024 and next year.

Altcoin season index
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/

When altcoin season?

The Bitcoin season and Altcoin season represents the different approaches to cryptocurrency investment, each of them have their advantages and disadvantages.

Bitcoin makes up about 60% of the total crypto market size now, so even a small shift in its liquidity could have a major impact on altcoin prices.

When Bitcoin dominates the market there’s high stability and lower volatility, most investments then will be concentrated on BTC making it the driver of the market.
There is less exposure to sharp price fluctuations and higher liquidity, Altcoins remain in the shadows.

The Altcoin season starts when the attention of investors shift to Altcoins that can show impressive and quick results, there is higher profit and diverse investment opportunities however it comes with a higher risk and volatility and many of the projects might turn out to become unsuccessful or speculative.
If about 75% of the top 50 coins performed better than BTC over the last 90 days then you’re sure you are in Altcoin season.

The Choice to know which season to invest is depending on your level of tolerance and investment goals.
If you prefer stability and low risk then bitcoin season is your choice which MOST PEOPLE prefer but if you prefer high profit potential and open for more risk, then Alt season is your time.
Altcoin season is for BIG RISK takers and timing is everything, you don’t want to jump in when it’s late and chasing higher prices.
You can make use of Altseason indicator.