Topic: BTC Sentiment Poll for January (Read 411 times)

In the beginning of the month, we have a huge jump in prices, so you can't blame those who voted and convince that we are in a bull run. And specially after the approval of the Bitcoin ETF's, we almost top $50k and we thought that it will continue it's bullishness because of that news. However, it was the opposite, maybe there is some kind of manipulation behind, maybe some big entities take advantage of the situation, liquidate their position when we hit $49k'ish and take profits, and then newbies panic when they saw this huge sell orders and follow and push the sell button as well. So we can't assume that we are in a bull run, bears will be bears, they will go and try to put pressures whenever they can to make people sells. They can easily create FUD as well to sow and manipulate public opinions and then they will take advantage of that situation again and again.

It's bull market but Bitcoin can't afford to drop more.
Because if it drops more, bears will come out again and bears can become very dangerous.
Bitcoin just needs a stable gain now and bears will be frightened again and won't attack.

I see the possibility of the correction too. The expectation of price up movement from early January to this time was that it will continue the up trend it started since last two months in the festive period but after this season it has reduced in volatility thereby affecting the price from 46k to now 42k with more possibility of further drop. I don't think this January will end in bull mode and price will keep maintaining this level until halving.

Monthly candle I rarely watch people using this timeframe

But I vote No ETF already approved but the market seems not moved at all. But as you can see on your chart bitcoin already put 3 candlesticks with big green don't you think there will be a correction after this?
In Altcoin cycle is january is the best time to buy more alt

This is just a temporary trend where many sells based on the news and once they are done, the market will recover eventually. This is actually expected once the news came out since many will take advantage of the FOMO. Now, we are in a consolidation period where Bitcoin needs to survive above the support level so we can continue this bullish trend, I’m still positive for this first quarter and I believe Bitcoin will recover stronger.

I think December was an anxious month, there were ups and downs. But in general, December turned out to be more stable than January. We all know the positive news with the Bitcoin ETF, everyone expected a huge surge in the market, but for some reason the market growth lasted one or two days. I hope this is a temporary phenomenon and January is ready for something more, and the dynamics and sentiment in the market will be better. In general, I think it’s worth the wait and we’ll see more new ATHs on the market.

Bitcoin finished high in December and the green candles were huge.  Bitcoin price has seen an upward trend, Bitcoin price has completed its high since January. In 2024, the highest Bitcoin price reached was $48,900, and the biggest factor behind Bitcoin's growth was Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin price hit record highs because of ETF approval.

Didn't see your post before, but it's a great point and analysis prior to the ETF launches.

I think this is the main point people have missed. Much of the rally from $25K to $48K, or at least from $30K, was based on anticipation of ETF launches. Now that the ETFs have launched, and the price hasn't immediately pumped to the upside as many were expecting, price should realistically return to it's "pre-ETF hype" level of around $25K to $30K. The fact the top cam within 30 minutes of launch is very telling.


For me, ETF aside, I'll focus on the price action, with $48.5K always being a target throughout 2023 for what I consider to be a macro dead cat bounce, similar to that of 2019. That may seem overly pessimistic, but just like in 2019, people started to think we would see ATHs very soon and the like. I get that a lot of this current speculation/hype was based on ETFs, but even without them, at around $50K this is what we'd be hearing regardless imo, ignoring the need for price to consolidate considerable gains in recent months. It's about time to learn that after price pumps 60% from $30K to $49K within 3 months, it can crash just as hard if not quicker, or at minimum consolidate for many months more. Like the initial move from $15.5K to $30K in 2023, price then consolidated between $25K and $30K for 6 months before moving higher.

I think currently bitcoin is still in the rising zone even though the bad news is still there and affecting the price of bitcoin, the highest price of bitcoin almost reached 50k$ for this month, but it was broken again and fell to 41k$ I think this month is still a bull for bitcoin, but for February and March I'm still not sure.

Market has been in green for months now and I think it's a gradual price increase and having witnessed more than one bull run hence I can say this is not a bull run because the prices will increase so rapidly during the bull run. I think the bull run will start the following year post halving somewhere in 2025. But we can utilize this rally to gain profit and possible correction if any to accumulate more.

There was a deep 24-hour decline in the second week of January after the ETF was approved. That is the current market graph that can be seen.
For those who ask why there is a decline when good news such as ETF approval occurs with various assumptions circulating.
If you look at the movement of the tradingview candle chart, the market is still in good condition even though the market reaction is different when facing things that are considered good such as ETFs.

In my opinion, this January will still be beautiful when looking at the Bitcoin price chart. The long term is more beautiful.
Who knows. But I believe this is the way of the bull market.

We see some drop today and that can be related to the purchase of BlackRock of around 2.2k+ Bitcoins.

If the support is likely to stay to $40k for the entire month, I'm already okay on where it is heading. As long as that price remains as the support, I wouldn't ask for more.

But definitely, any amount is still possible as it can go lower than what we're thinking. I don't mind how high it can go for this mind but holding on to its support.

At the start of the month I would have said hell yeh, but now I've voted no based on how the week is currently panning out. Price has finally reached the 0.618 fib retracement target of $48.5K, similar to the uptrends of 2016 and 2019, and now I fear there is a long-way down to reality around $30K. Not only is this week currently looking like a doji reversal candle, the worst we've seen since October 2021, but also it's the highest selling week in over 10 months, and it's still only Friday. To me the only hope is a strong rebound to around $46K to $47K over the weekend for the week to end more neutrally.



The potential for a "buy the rumour sell the news" ETF launch event was never going to end well in my opinion. Now there are fresh ETFs looking bearish, and if Wall St do what they usually do, it'll be to wait for a 50% correction prior to dipping their toes in the water. The upside is that the halving is only 4 months away, so any correction or capitulation should be short-lived at least.

I am convinced that this first few months of the year will end on a bullish note, and it will have nothing to do with the approval of the bitcoin ETF. It is self-evident that the approval of the spot bitcoin ETF will boost the market, while its rejection will cause the price of bitcoin to fall. My predictions are based on the fact that the market ended last year on a bullish note, and the new year has continued in the same a similar way.  If the bitcoin ETF is rejected today, the market will experience a negative trend, but it will quickly recover and resume its bullish trend. This month could end on a negative trend depending on when the good or bad news of bitcoin ETF will hit the market. But will recover back in some week time.

I'm personally not very convinced too. Although it's technically a bull market, I believe there's going to be one last price crash caused by a systemic event that will pull major economies down into a recession and make stocks, real-estate, and crypto crash back down to pre-surge levels.

The Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" will be the cause of surging unemployment this year. They simply can't expect high maintained interest rates to have no negative impact in the labor market.

Actually its right time for we to accumulate our bitcoin right now because nobody knows what the price of bitcoin can yield tomorrow and I believe that bitcoin price when someone is waiting for it to increase above expectations or directly to your expectations before you can purchase and hold, bitcoin price will be fluctuating in price, I think that the best way we can invest in bitcoin and make profit of bullrun is to invest without any expectations of increment because when you have increment of bitcoin price in mind I think that you will not summon the courage to invest in bitcoin.

The fear was that for a moment there we had a period when it looked like we are not going to actually go up, which made a lot of people fear that the year would start with a big drop and that is why we ended up with a lot of trouble, but that doesn't really mean that we are going to end up with anything like that anymore. We have seen the rise which means that it is not going to be a terrible year, we are going to end up with a good year for sure.

We just need to end up with a situation where people can see that halving is a great indicator that the price would go up. If enough people believe that and trust the process, then we are going to end up with a win in over course of a long term, and should be feeling fine about it.

Now that SEC or institutions have already that involvement into this market then its true that no matter what their decisions would be then it would really be bringing out such impact on which same as you said that
peoples eyes are now focusing or really that on spotting about this decisions or to those proposals that have been submitted whether those things would be that rejected or would be approved
on which it would really be that impossible that it wont really be able to result out on such potential of dumping or prices or would really be having that significant effect.
Every year there's no way that we could really be able to know on what would happen when it comes to price movements and conditions.

Every year we do know that recognition and adoption rate is really that something different specially now that government and big institutions are now getting involved.
Yes, the inflow and outflow becomes much more bigger but the cons is that it is really that gradually becoming that centralized when it comes into that aspect.
This is why it would be always better that we should really that expect that unexpected.

Many users are looking forward to that big news from the SEC this January - the impact will be felt no matter what the decision. It's just that - the market became very bullish when the SEC approved a bitcoin ETF, while the market will catch fire for a while due to trader panic and the exit of some big whales.

Just for me - positive sentiment is expected, while it is always possible to get something opposite to what is expected. As a long-term investor - I am ready for all market consequences, other people should be too. What must be improved now is - patience and optimism for a better future.

This is a good range for bitcoin price this month. Although it started a little above 43k this but because of the festive season has slightly shifted to 43k because of the dump looking like a resistance to contend with before the end of the month. I expect some spike volatility before the month goes away with the bitcoin ETF making the news around the market.

We are currently at $45k. It's a good head start for the year. Usually when things go like this, the rest are also going to go smoothly (price will rise easily). So, I think $40k is not the ceiling but in can be the floor. We can revisit this area with more volume, few moments later after a dump.

But, usually it needs some kind of encouragement like a positive news. That should cause the people to FOMO. I don't think it's possible to tell if what price BTC is targeting but we can only assume about it. Also, it is our target, not bitcoin's. If you are revisiting/reminiscing the year of 2021, there was a bull run that occurred during that time, and the price is again higher than $49k.

You are not familiar with the meme called Inverse Cramer? I have always been joking about it in the forum hehe. Bitcoin pumps when Jim Cramer is negative and it dumps when Jim Cramer is positive heehhehee.

Also, I disagree that selling Microstrategy shares to buy more bitcoin is to be considered bearish. This is certainly very bullish.

In any case, if this is not yet a bull market then when will the bull market begin for you? Once the price pumps to a new all time high?

Weekly doji candle in stark prospect for this week is pause for caution I think.    We have the prospect of the BTC price breaking out but its still sticking to the ceiling like a fly, upside down defying gravity  ready to fly or drop.   I presume upwards but it seems too much of the market is tied to the ETF which makes me personally apprehensive.
  I keep reading people saying the BTC ETF is coming and it has to be positive but that is opposite of what trades can occur.   If we speculate, bid and buy into BTC on this presumption of positive news then you already have your move before the event arrived.   We can and do often over speculate, over anticipate and quite ironic but often true the arrival of whatever good news can mean people swing to sell into the news hence we can certainly go down despite good news.   Also its obvious to say if ETF is denied or most likely of all just delayed ad infinitum as on prior considerations legally that would equate to negative action for this month or more.
  My main objection is I dont care about the ETF!  this protocol isnt an ETF, its outside finance and its not truly the most bullish thing for BTC its more about dollars and other markets, secondary reactions by main markets to BTC is whatever; the long term truth of a bull case for  BTC is about its actual usage, trade exchange hold by more new people thats all that matters.

After December closed the year in a green candle, I was expecting the trend to continue in that manner in January since it is the year of the bitcoin halving. Fast forward to some few days back that the bitcoin market experienced a drop to almost $40K which was influenced by the news of bitcoin ETF, many people believe that the news on spot bitcoin ETF will be the decider of the price in January which SEC are expected to announce their stance on the bicoin ETF.  The market continues to abide to the news from SEC and also immediately revert back to his normal position after that. This whole month is going to be bullish as long as bitcoin ETF does not get rejected.

The bullish trend has been so strong since October last year so it is easy for anyone who is good at reading the chart to know. Not to mention the ETF optimism that caused more FOMO in the market, these helped Bitcoin rise and I believe it would keep the present price range regardless of anything that happens including unfavourable news. They could only cause Bitcoin to be undermined for a while but they will not tary before Bitcoin will rise up and overcome any hurdles on its way. Bitcoin having season is not to be taken lightly, it has happened many times in the past without disappointing people, and it will not do it this time. However, I never expected something serious in the concluding part of last year and at a point, I knew that $45,000 was no longer feasible for the year.

That was what happened until that level was hit early this year and it has been a rollercoaster condition for the coin afterwards. This year, I expect more bullish bias but not without some bearish threats, and this could be aggravated by the rejection of the ETF proposal. The news/rumour of the rejection is getting more than that of the approval which is another issue for the coin even before the decision is made. The 10th of January is barely 5 days and I am now becoming sceptical of the whole scenario due to my sizable investment in cryptocurrency. Let's continue to be patiently waiting, nonetheless, the ETF decision might shape the whole crypto space until the post-halving period which is going to be a win-win for the coin.

Not totally we are in the bullish state but this is an indication for somewhat we want to see - Bullrun.
This month may not reach far from $40k but still believe that the price of Bitcoin will not fall below that price if there is a correction. Of course, I don't expect early hype this year, we're just about to start and the halving is likely to have a huge impact on its trend.

$43k - $48k - is already a satisfying price for Bitcoin to see this January.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but I would not agree that we should draw an equal sign between a business man like Saylor and some "comedian" who mostly talks nonsense on US business television. As an investor, I would be much more interested in what a serious business man who has already bought around 200 000 BTC is doing, than what people like Jim and people like him are speaking.


I think that the halving is a secondary issue for now, because everyone is focused on the ETF - yesterday I watched several interesting programs on various US business TV and most of the comments are very positive. Of course, the outcome can always be negative, but either everyone lives in a very big delusion or they have insider information on which to base their statements.

A massive sale is always possible in case of some extremely negative events such as hacking of one of the top CEXs, or some new pandemic, and possibly some war conflict involving countries with nuclear weapons. When everything goes down, Bitcoin is no exception - remember the declaration of a pandemic and a 50% drop in less than 24 hours.

Currently the Bitcoin market hovers between $42k and $45k. I still can't predict if the price of Bitcoin will go up or down this month. I thought at the beginning of the year that Bitcoin would go down but I don't see that at the moment. If the ETF is approved in the current market I think Bitcoin can go above $50k. The whole thing is based on what will actually happen, maybe or will happen in the future. While it is certainly possible that the value of Bitcoin will continue to rise, there are no guarantees in the market. The approval of ETF could potentially impact the market, but it is difficult to predict with certainty how much of an impact it will have. I'm not thinking about it right now, I just want to hold on to my bitcoins.

I'm sure that was just sarcasm because Jim Cramer is a clown who is known for making really bad predictions. If he says something is a good investment there is a good chance it will dump. Matrixport and Michael Saylor had about as much influence on the price as Jim Cramer, which is none at all. Traditional markets were also down yesterday.

My feeling is that we will have a positive month. By the end of next week the halving will be less than 100 days away. Nothing goes straight up forever, and there could be a few speed bumps before reaching a new ATH, but I don't think a massive selloff is likely in the coming weeks.

We've seen the price of Bitcoin rise and investors invest huge amounts of Bitcoin money only for the halving to happen. As the Bitcoin market is currently bullish and the market is showing a lot of growth, we can say that it is running like a bull market. If investors are in good profit right now as we have seen the Bitcoin market has already crossed $45k. January 2024 saw a good launch of Bitcoin price itself and it is likely to move to a better position soon and Bitcoin price is expected to rise rapidly.

Why would that be a reason which caused the price to drop? Most agree that the reason was in the Matrixport report, which says that the ETF will probably not be accepted this month, which consequently caused liquidation about "$500 million worth of positions across derivatives exchanges."

I would also single out the news that Saylor announced that he was selling part of his company's shares, which some may have interpreted as negative news.


The fact that the price is x3 times higher than the time you mention is for me personally just a recovery after the scandals with Do Kwon and Bankman, and I wouldn't call it a bull market at all. Realistically, the price of BTC in this period should be around $35k, and everything else is pumped up due to speculation about spot ETFs - and as soon as bad news appears about it, everything starts to collapse.

Realistically, the real bull run has so far always happened after the halving and it will probably be the same now - except that now we have an ETF in the game, although, as always, the decision will be uncertain until the very end.

with the constant changes happens? there is a pump in a day and then dumping in the next day? is this really something to consider Bull market? or just pumping and dumping playing with some whales?
not sure if this will be cleared as Bull but for me i take a step back and will wait more till when to sell or buy , its harder to predict when market is having roller coaster price like this.

Bitcoin price will stay between 45k to 50k this January. Right now we are close to bitcoin halving so bitcoin price will not increase quickly. Now thousands of investors are just hoarding Bitcoin, so when the halving is near, the price of Bitcoin could go from 60k to 70k thousand dollars. Bitcoin halving is only three months away, so hurry all bitcoin holders deposit bitcoins.

It was Jim Cramer. The market dumped on our faces after he declared that bitcoin cannot be killed and it is here to stay heheheeehehe.

Also, it is very headshaking that there are people in the forum who remain to think that it is not a bull market after bitcoin has done a 3x since November 2022. When will they be bullish?



Speaking on CNBC, television personality and economic analyst Jim Cramer stated that you can’t kill Bitcoin, as it’s here to stay. Moreover, Cramer called the digital asset a “reality” that many have to come to grips with. Additionally, labeling the token a “technological marvel” due to its constant perseverance.

Source https://watcher.guru/news/jim-cramer-you-cant-kill-bitcoin-its-here-to-stay

The month would probably close depending on the SEC's decision of Bitcoin spot ETF applications. If there is a rejection, the market might undergo a correction and the price might go back to $40,000 and even below. But if there is an approval instead of a rejection, it is possible that the month would end with the price reaching beyond $50,000.

I observed how rumors and false news about Bitcoin spot ETF are playing a bigger influence in the market. So January's price might be a reaction to Bitcoin spot ETF's fate.

Frankly, I don't think we are in a new bull cycle, maybe the news about ETFs is creating big and positive fluctuations in the market, but there will be situations where I think it makes sense due to the accompanying adjustment. Looking at the chart, we can speculate about the 2020 period. I also don't expect there to be immediate growth after the ETF is approved, but looking at what's happening, I'm still leaning towards the possibility of speculation. general market adjustment.

Anyway, this January there will be many big fluctuations for the market in general, we are nearing important days for the market, a few hours ago just the chaotic news caused fluctuations, just imagine the crowd still reacting to the news violently. In the journey of 2024, I believe we will have to face volatility mixed with doubts/excitement, but that is an indispensable part of this market, when the signal is clearer perhaps at the end of the year we may be in an official bull season.

For me it's a no until we see the approval of the ETF and we concluded the BTC halvening.I still believe that we may see a correction sooner or later and I know that I'm not the only one anticipating that event. Bull market for me is when everything just went up rapidly then alts go crazy, that's bull market for me.

Of course it is very unpleasant to see the price fall so hard after the previous day's pump to $45,800. Panic and massive selling by quick profit takers sent market capitalization down 4.4% in the last 24 hours. But this is an opportunity to do more accumulation, but each of them needs to consider DCA in anticipation of more downside.

In my opinion, whether the SEC approves or not for a bitcoin ETF will have an impact on the price of bitcoin this January, so they need to anticipate and minimize risks if they want to accumulate. I and most users are still very optimistic about positive sentiment this January, but of course we can still see a correction before the halving.

And that is why everyone was really surprised that at the start of the year, there is a massive jump on the price without any news, except the anticipation of a ETF approval. But we really don't get any news yet or update from SEC, so it just make me think that some entities are behind from this pump and now we are back to normal.


We still have a lot of time to buy and accumulate. We are more than 100 days from the halving, so plenty of time to DCA or even if we are in a signature campaign, save it weekly till the block halving and then see how it goes after as we might slowly see a bull run.

But the price of BTC has fall back to $42k and, it has make many hodlers to think negatively in this new month because many thought that the bull run will begin massively in this new month but red candle has occurred in the market. We are in the bear run and anyone can use the opportunity to buy BTC in this bear run and hodl for the price to pump to $50k before you can take a good profits that will give you another opportunity to buy when another bear run occur.

That is the best choice in this season to buy BTC and continue hodling so that you will be part of what is going to happen before April and, it will make both long hodlers and short term hodlers to achieve what they couldn't achieve last year.

I mean technically speaking I have been trusting that it is the bull market for the past 4 months or so, which means that nothing really changed for me and I still think that it is doing fine right now, I do not really believe that much has changed right now. However, if we could start to trust that we are doing something better, then I could potentially see that it is going to  be a bit different, and that should be the most important part.

I understand that we are going to end up with something much better, and that is not always that easy, but we need to really consider this situation a bit different. I know that we are going to have some trouble if we are not careful, so even though I trust that it is the bull market, still be careful with it.

Have voted for I DUNNO in this one , because just this time that I become not so sure about the market as I believe there is a falling comes this month but  to  my surprise ? it continues to grow and yeah  breaking 45k that have been hard to take in December last year.
Not sure if this can be called Blood bath because there is just a fall from the market but we cannot say if this will continue .falling 3k from 45k to 42k? that seems to be alarming .

WTF is happening right now?  Just when I thought everything is gonna be alrightthe market turns right into blood bath mode and dumps all over the place...  :/

I haven't looked into the news yet but if I were to guess, I think the market sell off has something to do with the ETF getting rejected once again and it's another wait and see for the next round.  Lmao.  This is hilarious.  But what else is new... The market always makes an ass out of everybody.

It's been an amazing start to 2024 as Bitcoin surpassed $45K. The price of Bitcoin is known for its fluctuations, making it challenging to predict short-term movements. While rapid market growth is exciting, it's essential to exercise caution before making any investment decisions. I'm still evaluating whether we're in a bullish market. However, I find comfort in the strategy of buying and holding.

We can't blame anyone, nor does it make sense at all - everyone has the right to think whatever they want, so if 75% of the people who voted think that we are in a bull market, I have nothing against that. It would be strange if we all thought the same, and it's always good to have different opinions, which means that in the end we won't all be wrong.

As for the six-digit numbers, the question is whether the approval of the ETF can result in more than a 100% price increase, because the approval is one thing and it will certainly "sell" well as news, but the question is whether investors will show interest in trading in that way with BTC. The US is of course a very specific market and everyone is counting on the fact that a huge amount of Bitcoin will be withdrawn from the market to ensure that the funds can trade, but you should also keep in mind that spot BTC ETFs have existed for some time in many countries (Canada), but they have not attracted a lot of interest.

Well I don't believe that we are in the bull market yet, although the market is trying to push up but saying that we are in the bull market is too bogus at this early stage because same movement occured at the early stage of 2023 and as we progress further into the year we saw some decline in price movement although I understand the reason for the poll to be this supportive of the bull market being now and this is maybe due to much said bull to come between 2024-2025 year.

We went to $40k after a spike to $44k, then go to $42k and maintain that price at the end. But at the start of the year suddenly we have a boost pushing to more than $45k and so it's really hard to see where the price will be or if this is just a temporary or short bull run.


I can't blame you with your skepticism and maybe some of us here are not that convinced. And for me the gauge is whether we are in a bull run is after the block halving as this is the catalyst for the official run that we are waiting for this year.

I think there's always been some misunderstanding of the term "bull market" on this forum, because it seems like every time bitcoin starts to rise for maybe 2-3 months, everyone is declaring a bull market.  When you're talking about stocks, I think the standard definition is a 20% rise over the course of a year, and even if I'm wrong about that, looking at a one month chart doesn't tell you much.

This is the one year chart from Coinmarketcap:



There was a long, flat period right in the middle, but based on where that chart begins I'd have to say that we're in what appears to be a bull market.  The question in my mind is whether it's going to last and if it does, for how long.  I haven't analyzed the data, but I get the impression that bull markets with bitcoin are more akin to bubbles than very long periods of price appreciation.  Crypto in general tends to attract a lot of speculators, and I think that's part of why there have been so many booms and busts.

If I base my answer on the history of the price movement of Bitcoin a few months before the halving, I will say that we aren't still in a bull market yet.
Seasonality is a big factor in the price increase. I don't know but based on history, Bitcoin's price goes up most of the time in the final 3 months of the year, excluding when we are in a bear market of course.

Aside from seasonality, the sentiment has shifted already. People took the opportunity to buy Bitcoin last year as well in preparation for the bull run that "MIGHT" happen a few months after the halving event happens. I will also add the positive news that's happening in the crypto space including the "POSSIBLE" acceptance of a Spot Bitcoin ETF, I also see the month of January as a bullish month, and at the end of the month, we might see Bitcoin ending up at a higher price than what it was last month.

So I'm not convinced that we are in a bull run already, but I, like always in the past months will remain bullish for the whole 2024.

I thought last month the price of Bitcoin had a massive correction since it's more in holidays and people will need money during these holiday seasons.  But it is not, Bitcoin price is maintained at the price of $40k which is impossible to decline in January by this month.
So my prediction would be the price will still at the range of $40k plus the additional factor of ETF events might also be the reason Bitcoin will possibly create a massive pump this month.

So I'm not convinced yet if the price will strike and pump with this month.

True, but we can't blame those who are betting on a possible approval of spot ETF? I don't think so, and maybe this are the same investors who's speculating that a approval could easily mean 6 digits to all of us.

But if there's no approval, for sure, the market will go down again and then reset, wait for the block halving and then as per history, we might see a bull run. So in any case, it will surely come with or without the Spot ETF approval, in my opinion.

Well if we see that the price is going up because of some news or investors pouring their money already this early in anticipation of bitcoin block halving, then I will say that we might be in a bull run already.

I know it's too early to call, but this set of new investors are kindly different, I mean they are really ready to pounce on the market anytime and pump the price (FOMO), and this could infectious to other investors as well that's why in the first 2 days of January the price reaches $45,000.

I think what we should be saying is about bitcoin clamping to fifty thousand [50k] and I believe that bitcoin clamping to fifty thousand should something of joy, currently the price of bitcoin is accelerating compared to the initial price of bitcoin last year, their is something I have to understand concerning bitcoin today and tomorrow, bitcoin price is rotational and it doesn't stick on a particular price and I believe that is the reason while I doesn't stick in a particular price of bitcoin when it comes to poll, I know quite that the price can change in value at any point in time.

ETF or not if we look at the close of December and also how the candle has formed, it is probably looking to be a sustainable increase for bitcoin and if the etf is negative, the correction may not last a long time down before halving. So I think it is still a win win for bitcoin and bitcoin hodlers with the time remaining for halving.

Bitcoin ETF approval is indeed one of the cardinal factors that we should look out for to influence the uptrend market direction for Bitcoin, and that is going to be the sole determinant price propeller in the next couple of weeks before the end of January since this Bitcoin poll is targeted with the time frame of January, but the only constraint right now is whether or not the sec approval is going to happen in January or not since the green light already speculated first quarter of 2024 as the possible approval time frames.

For that, we may have just limited tools to speculate what the price of Bitcoin will be in this January and if I must speculate at all, then I will say that we are going to be seeing more Bitcoin price stability and settling between the 43k - 40k, but it won't go below that price because breaking below that 40k price range will push for much more sell-off which could bring us down to 35k before the halving time frame happens.

I personally am not convinced that we are in a bull market because, as some have already mentioned, it is more than obvious that the majority are betting that the ETF will be approved and that is why the price is rising. If the decision is positive, we can expect that on the wave of this news, the price of BTC will rise even more, but it is difficult to speculate about percentages.

If the decision is negative, a correction is possible (and probable), then all expectations will be focused on the halving, the effects of which will probably be visible only in the second half of 2024.

I thought 40k area would be the ceiling, it was barely a speedbump.  The pullback to that area was bullish I guess though I think all of this action is quite brief not high volume which is to say i think we can revisit and establish more volume in this area in future.
   For now BTC target is 49.3k which is alot of the weekly top prices for 2021, thats a nice area to revisit we are back to full health surely.

The conclusion depends on the decision of the SEC which will approve in January whether it is possible or not but there are many rumors that it will be approved as previously reported.

It will be a strong sentiment if the SEC takes a quick action, as it is clearly up to them to increase the price of bitcoin or you can say bullish, but if it doesn't happen then a correction is possible but the SEC's influence is big enough to affect the price now and the expected date is getting closer.

The news on X.com is still happening with ETFs and the SEC.

I have never had any doubts over the appreciation of Bitcoin price this season, nor have I doubted this since the beginning of 2023, but was assured of a long-lasting bullish trend between August and October] when a daring bullish trend was converging on the weekly and monthly charts. I even delayed before I revealed that analysis as I was busy before then. The halving expectation helped so much this time, but the help was faster due to the ETF expectations and headlines and it has been wonderful for everyone that had outsmarted what is happening now to have invested big in Bitcoin during the time of pressure when it was about to hit $15,000 in late 2022. Going forward, Bitcoin never had a substantial bearish movement last year judging by where it started the year and it was significant in breaching so many resistance levels on its way up, thanks to FOMO caused by the ETF saga. As it is now, it is all bullish, and pretty soon, Bitcoin might hit its ATH once more, especially if the ETF fillings could be approved by the SEC.

The effect might not be as drastic immediately as people expected, but I am certain that Bitcoin could hit at least $69,000 even before the halving time if the approval sees the light of day. However, I do not expect a strong bullish movement in the very first days, but in a matter of weeks, it would happen. This will be partly because of halving as the pre-halving movements of Bitcoin are caused by FOMO in the market, so we are looking beyond the SEC approval now. Technically, there is nothing stopping Bitcoin from flying higher, the monthly chart is extremely bullish, so I expect the sentiment of the market to prevail in the longer term disposition. This is irrespective of SEC and halving now, the sentiment of the bullish season will always play right and make sure that it effectively serves its time.

I could recall last month sentiment pool when you asked whether bitcoin could exceed $40k and I said No. Now I wouldn’t be making any definite price predictions but I will just place it more on the ETF hype. I see this month of January price been driven by fundamental analysis rather technical. The driving tool is the hype around the ETF which many people mostly experts expect to be approved within this week, most likely specifically before January 10. If everything goes to plan then I see bitcoin hitting a $50k also because of the BOND bearish trend, many will turn to bitcoin. But if we experience a postponement then a support level of $42k i personally set will be tested.

Nonetheless I will be holding my bag too throughout 2024, now you holding also gives me much confidence because both you and Imthor, your analysis are what I put into consideration sometimes when making decisions, Due to your technical skills.

Breaking 45 thousand dollars when I expect price will fall down like what you said below 40k
but I am wrong(we are wrong lol) because now it is even going up and up so i assume that we will
be hitting 50k this january ? Wow that will be a dream to me .

People may not be posting because of your mistake. It supposed to be bitcoin sentimental pole for January, 2024. Or is that not what you meant? You need to edit the topic title.

About if the market would be bullish in this January or not, I think this would depend on if United States SEC approves bitcoin ETF ot not. If not approved very soon, the market may not go down much and it may not increase that much. But if bitcoin ETF is approved, expect more price increase even if it might be followed by slightly bear market. But as it is now, nobody knows when SEC will approve bitcoin spot ETF in January, so I do not know exactly if bitcoin price will increase but above all, I am not selling bitcoin in 2024.

December closed with another green monthly candle which kinda gave a scare as it was showing some sign that the top is in and that it could start going back down below 40k...  But it didn't!  And if anything the price action it's showing right now says it's just gonna get stronger.

So yeah, just a simple poll to see where your sentiments are for the market overall.  I don't think some people are convinced yet and are still side lined.

Anyway, here's the monthly chart...  And it's a beauty esp if you include January.