Topic: BTCGarden Overview & Speculation Thread (Read 5079 times)

the order tracker somehow got abandoned and stopped being updated.
jody's blog is now an official tracker: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/bfl_jody/

the Chinese title reads: BTC Garden data center deploy scheme V1

there is no proof at all that this is happening! If you look at the ordertracker no one is getting orders since weeks!

I believe these are stock pictures, I think someone pointed that out somewhere else in their thread.

Just got around to poking about on the btc garden website...
http://www.btcgarden.com/deployment.jsp

I can't read Chinese, but they have pictures of what appears to be their data center.  My question is, are we looking at actual pictures of their data center, or are these stock photos of what they are planning to build?

It's way too optimistic to estimate ACTM can deploy Avalon clones before mid-Sept(it depends on Avalon's ship time), not to mention their own 28nm chips.

And whos getting them?

They are getting over 10 Th/s out the door per day now. Like it or not, they are boosting the global hash significantly.

How could we forget, we've only been reminded about that for over a year.

Guys you are forgetting butterfly labs will ship in two weeks.

Misleading?  This is a speculation thread, BTCGARDEN has stated their plans, I am using them as a guide to speculate.  I would say they are optimistic.  I'll go ahead and respond to your points so you know where I am coming from.  I am in no way attempting to be argumentative, I'm just justifying my views.


You would only be correct if the overall network hashrate was flat.  It has not been flat, it has not even been linear, it's been on an exponential growth path.  4000btc per day was the least optimistic number I posted.  I would bet 1btc that the real average daily btc mined continues to be ABOVE 4000.
http://blockchain.info/stats


http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate



a) I'll posit that knc delivers in mid October after a modest 3 week delay, and starts hosting at the beginning of October.  Due to the delay and refund policy, I'd guess they will refund around %50 of their orders as the mining rigs most likely won't achieve ROI (http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ has previous 30 day difficulty increase at 75%).  Why would someone keep a pre-order for a device when refunding would make them more money?
b) ACTM's earliest estimate for delivery is the END of October.  Mid-November is more realistic for devices to start showing up on our door step.
c) AM appears to self regulate their growth to <20%.  Their stated network target is to maintain 10% of the overall network.  I've been watching them closely (as have many) and don't expect them to push the network due to perceived effect it would have on hardware sales.
d) 100TH will most likely slowly increase hasrate and achieve 100TH by the end of September
e) bitfury only really sells in Russia and won't really start impacting the network until mid October
f) cointerra has no hope of delivering before December.  For the purposes of this discussion they are a non-issue.
g) Even if avalon got their $#!7 together that's what 40TH?
h) terrahash?

Optimistically none of the above will appreciably be in place in September, October will be a huge month and the network will continue to increase to 2000TH by the end of December.

This will give BTCGARDEN a chance at %35 -%16 over the stated time range before adding their second batch of mining equipment.  Making my dividend potential estimate possible. (though admittedly optimistic)

edit...
For those not reading my previous post, I'm speculating that we could receive up to 85% of our IPO price in dividends by the end of the year.  Even if I'm way off and we only receive %50 in the next 4 months, that's still an incredible return.

Your maths is misleading at best.

First, 'scaling it back' to 4000 is a poor representation of total bitcoins/day. The average is more accurately described as 3600/day.

The system is designed to release a block every 10 minutes and therefore 6 blocks an hour and 144 blocks a day. Each block is worth 25 bitcoins.

144 * 25 = 3600

More like 25,000/week

Second:

Hitting a hash rate target of 35% is questionable - a big feat indeed. As is calculating ROI by assuming BTCGarden could hold 35% from September 'til the end of December given what else is going on in the landscape.

You're assuming:
a) knc doesn't deliver any meaningful volume
b) actm doesn't deliver any meaningful volume
c) asicminer doesn't scale anytime soon
d) pico doesn't get its 100TH up
e) bitfury doesn't deliver any meaningful volume
f) cointerra falls flat
g) avalon chips never arrive
h) terrahash?

Bottom line: You won't be making 85% by December. I don't even know if you'd make 50%

If KnC meets it's targets in September/October we could see ~1PH or more on the network.  We also have HashFast promising to deliver by October as well. I doubt BTCGarden will ever get 35% of the network.

It seems to me that people don't realize how soon BTCGARDEN will be mining.


In ~40 days BTCGARDEN will begin hashing 200-300TH/s.  According to blockchain.info, 4925 btc were mined in the last 24 hours.  If we scale that back and assume 4000 btc are mined a day (28,000 per week) and BTCGARDEN hit's their goal of %35 network hash rate, that's 9800 btc per week in dividends or .00098/share.   So from the middle of september till the end of December, that is .01372/share returned in dividends (85% of IPO price).

WTF does avalon have to do with BTCGARDEN

It's going to be an interesting fall: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2868036

I assumed you talked about a 4k BTC order.

No, it executed about 3 minutes after I posted. 4099 shares.

What happened? Pulled I guess? It wasn't filled at least.

China is waking up 

There's a 4k buy order @ .016 if anyone has cold feet and wants out. 

One should be aware that there is someone who has a buy order for GARDEN shares for more than 1000 Bitcoin and it seems that he wants to get in cheaper - but he wants to get in. At some point IPO flippers run out of shares or the demand catches up (due to an update from aiwell for example). What does that mean? His buy order doesn't get filled and he might move the wall again and chase the market ... or he could lose patience.

So the question to the rest: do you want to get in before this happens or after?


Edit:

To not sound manipulative: it could also be someone who wants to hold the price up.

Ambitious roadmap.  I wonder how long "Deploying" takes to become "Deployed".


Source: http://www.btcgarden.com/figures.jsp

Ok, got that now, why the sell off?

You mean this:

It won't show up for a while at-least. They said the 2M shares will show along with really big and important news so I'm assuming it will be after a few months.

where's the other 2M shares supposed to show up right after the first 2M sell out?

I just re-read the announcement page, and I stand corrected. The sales part isnt mentioned until mid-post so I missed it.

BTCGarden is also a mine + hardware sales.

The issue with that valuation is that BTCGarden is a mine, while ASICMINER is a mine + hardware sales. The question then is what percentage of ASICMINER's valuation is based on hardware sales?

 i  hope so ,this is the most  optimistic situation.

They are planning to deploy 500TH by Nov, that is one half of what Asicminer plan to deploy(800-1000TH) by the end of this year.
Market Cap of Asicminer = 4 * 400,000 = BTC1,600,000
So, if everything goes smooth for BtcGarden, they deserve a market cap of BTC800,000 and it gives the price of BTC0.08 per share which is 5 times of IPO price.
Hope my calculation makes sense.

Chinese won't sell, and they are representing the larger part of the investors.

Going Up.

BTC Garden Update

BTC Garden Update

someone just bought 80,000 shares in 1 bite, nice!

I would like to invest but I have some concerns, so if anyone could help me out that would be much appreciated:

1.  It seems very reckless to produce such a large amount of chips without first testing a prototype.  How big is the risk that the chips will not work or will have short lives?  I am not a chip engineer so I don’t really know if this approach is common, how reliable virtual testing environments are, or how much risk it really is.

2.  Does the same parent company also operate a BTC exchange in China?  It seems that it could add a substantial amount of risk to the operation.  Friedcat has mentioned in the past that most of the regulatory risk in China seems to be related to running exchanges.

Why not simply use shareholders dividends to purchase more shares and then give the empty shares?

Where is the overview???

Hi,

Im tempted to invest - but not pushing the button as yet due to the massive valuation. Can anyone justify it to me?

thanks

I like such a thread~~~


thankyou for ur advices.

Some of our staffs did buyin a lot of public shares from BTCT personally (with same treatments as others -- big confidence on this project pushed them to do so). It is not big but since your advice really make sense, We ll think about adding some terms relating to this later.

I think there is one more protection that shareholders should be pushing for. (Or should have pushed for before the IPO)
That is - that all newly issued shares should be in exchange for more capital only... ie not as 'rewards' to staff/management.
There is nothing I can see in the statements above that would stop them issuing 'free' (or cheap) shares to insiders at the same time as they issue more for capital.

I have no problem with the share dilution if it's done purely to grow the company and the shares are issued at a fair market price.

Do not say Share Dilution。Can they sell the first 200w shares？It is still a problem。

To protect the interest of early investors, share dilution CANNOT occur until the all three following conditions have been fulfilled: 




1.   Total cumulative dividends paid/share equaling 0.032BTC/share; i.e., twice the IPO priced paid in dividends
2.   Share Dilution will not occur until after August 1, 2014 if the situation would arise


3.   Major developments/events that would lead to/maintain BTCGarden's targeted network portion.

That said, there would be an announcement before any further shares are sold, with existing shareholders have priority to purchase more. From what aiwill said, it's to be used as a last resort only.

I previously saw the 'share dilution' thing as a strong disincentive to invest - but with the promise not to dilute before 0.032BTC paid in dividends each share, and the promise to limit the rate to 1Million per year (10%) - I now think it's a smart move to make sure they can raise capital for future generation chips as necessary.

Clearly, with the sheer size of this IPO, there's not as much opportunity for speculators to pump and make quick gains - but the large amount of capital puts the company in a strong position to be a serious player - so overall I think this will probably develop into a solid Bitcoin stock with a fair prospect for respectable profit.

Chinese stocks do you know? Want to know the purchase BTCGarden

Key Steps in the Coming Months (via IPO)

1) Deploy 200 TH/s in at Shenzhen/Beijing/Xian/Suzhou simultaneously once the chips are finished.

2) Receive the 300 TH/s while finishing the deployment of the initial 200 TH/s

3) Consider outsourcing sales of mining hardware

4) Finish LAYOUT, start TAPEOUT of the 2nd-gen chips within 2013

plz double me up again 

Speculation, project developments, rumors.

Discuss