Topic: BTCGuild Luck (Read 3988 times)

the last several days have sucked donkey balls. i keep telling myself to move on... then i think the luck has to change soon. just added another THs today.... added it and 7 hours plus nada... c'mon btcguild. let's start shitting out coins and make daddy happy.

i really should point these across several pools.

Pool Luck* (24H / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M / 3M / All Time): 75.565% / 89.085% / 98.621% / 96.570% / 97.444% / 90.168% / 96.891%
3 day is weak no catchup still behind.

Pool Luck* (24H ): 152.921%

Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

Pool Luck* (24H / 3D / 1W):  124.459% / 83.921% / 90.956%

Guess they are catching back up...

Pool Luck* (24H): 103.959%

Glad to have your expert opinion on the subject.
Thanks,
Sam

Pretty old, and BTCG still the same :p I mined with them in 2013 and never since lmao

LoL I didn't see the dates.....had no idea this thread was that old!

OP?  LOL... the original poster started this thread in July of last year and was asking about BTCG luck and if all pools used PPLNS.  Somebody (BCwinning) decided to revive this post from the dead and buried to show that BTCG luck is still bad.

Harsh, I think OP was voicing how people wouldn't use that pool seeing a 2% fee.

Hence why I prefer Antpool for my S4's.

you fucks think your so intelligent you're fucking stupid.

What's the CDF[Erl] of that 24hr number?

It seems quite common for people to see a low luck number and not take into consideration how often that is expected to happen.
If one was to assume they got 3 blocks with an average luck of 63% (i.e. mean diff% of 1.59%) - the CDF[Erl] is ... 0.85 ... so very roughly once a week, 3 blocks are expected to be below 63% luck

Of course at 3 months, 91% luck certainly seems pretty bad for their hash rate ...
Assuming average about 4 blocks a day for 90 days - 360 blocks luck 91% (i.e. mean diff% 109.9%) - the CDF[Erl] is ... 0.967 - ouch
So since that's 3 months worth, you expect that or worse about ... once every 7.5 years

Of course the above is assuming I've calculated them correctly and properly understood organofcorti's explanations of how to calculate them

I thought Eligius froze and confiscated @400BTC from a block withholding miner? ( not sure if those coins where ever paid out to the miners that got ripped off)

So luck could really be 64.888% or 60.888%.  Hmm, it's still bad luck.

Depends on if the luck% takes the fee into consideration ...

If it does, then the pool block luck is higher than that.
If it doesn't, then the payout PPS% is lower than that.

... also depends on what orphans are counted as ...

That luck would be better with a 0% fee?  Bad luck is bad luck regardless of fee's.

Pool Luck* (24H / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M / 3M / All Time): 62.888% / 76.267% / 88.769% / 90.841% / 95.706% / 91.032% / 96.847%

very lame.. especially with a 2% fee

At under 10% of the network, calling 2 weeks "midterm" is one hell of a stretch.

Midterm figures don't look so great either...

Approximate Pool Luck* (24H / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M / 3M / All Time): 72.854% / 79.282% / 81.896% / 81.844% / 90.275% / 91.472% / 98.137%


Something is broken. I've supported BTCGuild for a long time but the pool will soon die if this doesn't turnaround very soon.

Got it, so you're using extremely short term figures.  Good thing you didn't try BitMinter during their just-under 3 day long block, you might've had 0%!


90.275% 1-month luck
91.472% 3-month luck (which includes the 1 month where there was a proven block withholding attack, meaning it includes the worst month in the entire history of the pool)
98.137% luck since September 2013.

These are out of 99%, which would be the target assuming a 1% orphan rate.

Alright, Eleuthria, time to lay down the facts, "bro".

My "expected" earnings at current hashrate are about .005 BTC/day.

At it's worst on BTC Guild, about, maybe 5 days ago? I was averaging consistently at .003-.0035, and that was for a few days. That's when I gave up on that pool for the time being.

Now let's do the math on that, at say an average of .0033. 33 / 50 = exactly 66%.

Forgive me for taking a second to ballpark it in my head, but this is what I experienced. Fact. I didn't exaggerate anything.

So to exaggerate by saying I'm exaggerating, only makes you look like a moron. Oh Eleuthria, trust me, I have far better things to do than go around slandering a Bitcoin mining pool on some forum.   

I don't know how things have been the last few days, because I just haven't been mining there.

Edit: I was wondering where your name sounded familiar from, and I guess you are owner of BTC Guild? Now if I were lying, I could just edit this whole thing, but I'm stating facts, at least from my own perspective, that's all. I do hope things are back to 90%, I really do. I have used BTC Guild for months now, but due to my bad financial situation, I was quick to switch to where the profit was, which isn't necessarily good either, but like I said, I can only talk for me.

No, we're talking 90%.  Exaggerating just makes you look like an moron.

Aw shoot, and Slush's Pool was going to be one my choices to try, too! Damn!

Anyway, that does sound like a good deal, and equal to my earnings on ghash.io, so if I can stay away from them and get the same earnings, why not go with a less "dangerous" pool?

But I still wonder why BTC Guild has been so terrible lately. I mean, we're talking like 60% of expected earnings. Could a pool really be in a spell of bad luck for that long? Why would Slush's pool still be getting such high earnings?

I was thinking that ghash was more consistent because it's hashing power is astronomical. I figured that would keep their "luck" consistent because of their sheer hash power, but that doesn't seem the case. Anyway, switching to Slush's for now. Thanks, dropt.



To TheJuice. Bitsolo is a solo mining option, correct? I mean, unless you had like 20 TH/s, would it really be feasible? And I could be wrong, but wouldn't your earnings be very similar in pooled mining when compared to solo mining because you are putting in the same amount of work, but getting more plentiful but smaller payouts, rather than one extremely large one? I feel like if difficulty keeps jumping at the current rate, you could screw yourself. Be careful with that, unless you have the hash power to back up such a gamble!

I moved over to bitsolo. Time to go for it all.

In an ideal world you guys would to some due diligence and pick an alternate pool that suites your needs.

For example: the most current metrics for Slush's pool:  171%, 105%, 104% (1 day, 7 days, 30 days):

So if you were mining at Slush, you would have earned 171% of your expected PPS earnings over the last 24 hours.

Of course this number varies fairly wildly day to day, but 105% over 7 days, and 104% over 30 days looks pretty decent to me.

Edit: Discus Fish is a chinese pool.

... Yes what he said, where do we go to get a descent return and not help a 51%?

Hold (on)!

Alright, dropt. Look, I understand your frustration. I didn't like going there either. What pool have you been using? BTCguild, as of last week, was giving me earnings corresponding to my hashrate, but after that, the number was significantly lower. Tbh, the last couple days I've been mining for a different coin to try and get an early stake in it, so I was at ghash for about 3 days.

What pool have you used that gives you "proper" projected earnings, or at least close to it? If you can give me one, I will withdraw my funds from ghash and switch right to it.

I'm not trying to support any nefarious activities that may be going on at ghash.io, and I will gladly support and donate to another pool, like I was doing at BTC Guild. So in all seriousness, I would like to know where you're doing your mining. I know the dangers of a 51% attack, and I will gladly support another pool if it is on-par or near ghash.io. I have seen you going around the forum and complaining about them, which is not a bad thing at all, I know. In fact, it's a positive thing.

If you can prove them and me wrong, I will jump on board.

P.S., I remember on Hashfaster's Litecoin pool, how they... Was it hashfaster? Anyway... There is some sort of coalition where the administration for the pool basically makes some sort of promise that they will stop a 51% attack within their own pool, either by throttling, or something. Does any such thing exist for BTC?

Edit: It was a promise that the pool won't go above 28% of network hashrate. Good luck getting ghash.io to pledge such a thing. *sigh*

Secondly, who the hell is Discus Fish?

And thirdly, did BTC Guild just like, half in the last few days? I could swear they had a much higher distribution just a few days ago. Weird...

Jesus.  You know what?  I need every coin I can get too as I am trying to pay off my latest hardware but I refuse to use a pool fhat doesnt give a shit about 51% and has been proven to attempt to push double spends onto the network before.  There are a number of other pools you can use, but you jump right to GHASH.   *sigh*

I'm slowly but surely losing faith in this whole thing.

Thanks for the explanation. Only time will tell tho, the past 2 weeks is < 80% and that is without withholding.

I didn't really go through the whole thread, but I had the same issue. After a week, I went to the dark side. ghash.io.

With my Antminer, no overclock, I should be getting about .005 BTC/day. I was getting about .30 on average.

After heading to ghash.io, I was getting just about .005/day, and I'm more than pleased with that. If they were to get near 51%, I'd certainly jump off of it, but for the time being, I need all the earnings I can get, I feel.

You pretty much said exactly what I am thinking/feeling perfectly.  Word for word thought for thought.

With all due respect, that's ridiculous.  Guild's 3-month luck will never reach 100% (99% + orphan) or above if the daily, weekly, and monthly values are sub 99% consistently, which they have been for months now.

And you put your thumbs in your ears yelling at everyone saying "everything is fine".  Low and behold there was a withholding attack underway even though it was innocent.  I don't believe that there aren't similar issues, either intentional or otherwise, currently taking place on Guild.  However, I'm well aware that detecting those actors and isolating them is near impossible.  Don't take it personally, but shit is happening on your pool whether you'd like to admit it or not.

This is true, but I'm watching the long term luck continue to drop.  Previous to early 2014 Guild was always a good percent or two above 100.  I know there's been suggestion from users/talk of removing that stat all together.  I'm glad you haven't because that would reek of sweeping the facts under the carpet.

Short term variance is expected, especially in smaller pools.  However, we all know the common arguement to the contrary is that the variance over time evens out.  In this case, "over time" is showing that there are problems and the organic balancing of variance isn't occuring.



Before you lose your shit as usual, I'd like to sympathize with you.  I love Guild, and I greatly appreciate you as an operator, full stop.  I've been mining with you since Jan of 2012 and hate to leave, but it is what it is.  

That hopefully will mean something to those who are still using the pool.  If things turn around I will be one of the first back as the problem is real like you said about the public pools dieing out, or rather becoming a small % of the network.   I appreciate the lengthy explanation from btc-guild's view and am sure others will also.

I have an idea to extend the life of existing independent pools. How about a pool of pools?

Just one big pool that includes, BTCGuild, Eligius, Slush, Bitminter and other smaller pools. They could charge an extra 1% in addition to the individual pool fees. Hash would be divided by each pools current share of their total hashrates.

Occassionally, I already do something similar to this on my own when I get tired of the brutal bad luck streaks at BTCGuild.

Looks like the centralization of hashrate is inevitable, and the 3 largest public pools (excluding Discus Fish) have just got 7%, 5% and 4% of network hashrate now. 
https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=4days

Our 3-month luck is 100% the fault of the block withholding.  That effect will keep our 3-month luck down until that activity (most of May and early June) is no longer a part of the 3-month average.

The group that did the withholding is the ONLY EVER PROVEN block withholding to take place.  And what happened?  Their accounts were frozen with what few coins were not yet paid.  They were notified, and after days of communication the problem was found.  Their explanation and looking at their share history clearly pointed it was a software glitch related to a 32-bit integer overflow.  It was discarding shares with a difficulty greater than 2^32 due to the overflow.  48 hours later they resumed mining on BTC Guild and after finding multiple blocks they had their accounts unfrozen.


We are at 91.6% out of ~99% expected (orphans make 100% unlikely) for the month.  That 1-month average has varied from 91% to 97% over the last 2 weeks.  All it takes are a few long blocks to drastically change the averages.  All it takes are a few really fast blocks to drastically change them right back.

They are going to swing more drastically and more wildly as time goes on, because public pools will be gone within a year unless something changes drastically in the mining ecosystem.  All the major public pools are now under 20% of the network combined.  This excludes GHash because their private farm alone is larger than every pool except Discus Fish.  It excludes Discus Fish for similar reasons (every chinese manufacturer uses them for hardware "testing"/pre-mining). The smaller pools are, the more variance they will have over the same time frames.  BTC Guild's luck prior to the withholding in May/June rarely moved more than 1 or 2% for the 3 month period.  But prior to May/June, BTC Guild alone was larger than all public pools combined are today (in terms of network share).

No way around it, whatever is happening it isn't just bad luck for so long.  Btc-guild will be dead soon if they don't find the thief.

<90% luck for a day? Sure easily...
<90% luck for a few days?  Yep, 90%,50%, 150% ( although btc-guild rarely has over 100% these days )
<90% luck a week?  Probably will happen from time to time but should be often..
<90% luck for a month?  Should be very rare but I guess possible... from time to time
<90% luck over 3 months?  Come on... and to boot if you go to their irc and post your concern you are run out of town with pitchforks.

That is fine, btc-guild will be dead soon people only can be fed the bad luck line for so long.

Sadly, btc-guild is paying the 2 scammer accounts daily like there is np.  Kick backs?

Well, legit or not if something doesn't change even noobie miners will figure it out sooner or later and btc-guild will be done.

That's true, but you can look at luck over time and see how they're fairing.  In this case BTCGuild is getting screwed hard by luck, and has been for quite some time.  Eleuthria has already caught one bad actor, I'm guessing there are more there.  Doesn't matter to me though, I finally bit the bullet and moved my farm elsewhere.

If the pool is having better luck, sure.  But there is no way to tell when a pools is going to have good or bad luck as it is complete random chance.  And it is possible for the entire network to have bad luck as well.

Thanks for explaining that for me. I think I have it.

So if the luck is down such as now is it worth moving to another pool or ...?

No not all pools use the PPLNS payout method.  Here is a list that shows what pools use what payout method.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btc-mining-pools-list-104664

Luck has nothing to do with the payout method.  Luck, or Random Chance, is the nature of Bitcoin.  It is a measure of how many blocks are actually found per a given amount of hash rate.  Good luck means more block are found and bad luck means fewer blocks are found per a given hash rate.

PPLNS
I just havent seen luck mentioned anywhere else as such, although I realise its all down to luck I guess.

What "method" would that be?

I switched back to BTCGuild to give it a try and I have to say that the payouts dont seem too good right now. The pool seems to be having a spell of bad luck which makes me ask the question with he pool luck down to 92% how does that affect me? Do I only earn 92% of what I would earn normally it the luck was at 100%?

Are all pools using this method now?