BTC/USD down from top, getting ready to drop?

fcmatt

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Quote from: hacknoid on March 31, 2013, 12:19:35 AM

Quote from: Ichthyo on March 30, 2013, 07:50:25 PM

you provide us with a nice example what "anticipation" means.

"right now" means today, at easter 2013
right now you can buy a bit more than alpacka socks and weed, so more than $5 is OK
but thats much about it.

So, I'm curious...

Right now bitcoinwatch is showing about 1.6 million bitcoins transferred in the past 24 hours. With only a few tens of thousands of those coming from exchanges, where were the other million plus going? Seriously... Or did I miss something?

If those numbers are right then it seems to indicate there is a large economy in action there. We're talking over $100 million / day in equivalent cash being transferred about.

satoshi dice prob represents 50% or higher of that?

hacknoid

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Proud Canuck

Quote from: Ichthyo on March 30, 2013, 07:50:25 PM

you provide us with a nice example what "anticipation" means.

"right now" means today, at easter 2013
right now you can buy a bit more than alpacka socks and weed, so more than $5 is OK
but thats much about it.

So, I'm curious...

Right now bitcoinwatch is showing about 1.6 million bitcoins transferred in the past 24 hours. With only a few tens of thousands of those coming from exchanges, where were the other million plus going? Seriously... Or did I miss something?

If those numbers are right then it seems to indicate there is a large economy in action there. We're talking over $100 million / day in equivalent cash being transferred about.

BTC Books

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Quote from: fcmatt on March 30, 2013, 10:25:12 PM

Quote from: BTC Books on March 30, 2013, 09:41:35 PM

Quote from: Ichthyo on March 30, 2013, 07:42:23 PM

Attentively observing the facts, but I keep my stance.
Expensify - yet another "might be a bit deal" if it takes off
Bridgewalker - yet another nifty Bitcoin wallet, which could take off when bitcoin would be in more widespread use

So clearly you haven't looked at Bridgewalker, in any depth. It isn't another nifty bitcoin wallet. Not even close. It's a dollar wallet - that uses bitcoin as the transaction network. Big difference. You can get someone to install it if you owe them a few bucks, send them the dough, and they say: "cool!" And then you say: "oh, yeah... that's bitcoin, by the way".

At what point does the person who is owed money say, "wtf am I supposed to do with bitcoins? How do I get my usd out of this damn app?"

perhaps i missed that part on the app's website.

They don't - as you already know. You can always take the transaction back. But people are very curious about bitcoin these days. And this app gives you the opportunity to let them fall a little further into the rabbit hole. I've done this more than once now, and the dawning light is fascinating.

It's not like you do this with a stranger, you know.

fcmatt

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Quote from: BTC Books on March 30, 2013, 09:41:35 PM

Quote from: Ichthyo on March 30, 2013, 07:42:23 PM

Attentively observing the facts, but I keep my stance.
Expensify - yet another "might be a bit deal" if it takes off
Bridgewalker - yet another nifty Bitcoin wallet, which could take off when bitcoin would be in more widespread use

So clearly you haven't looked at Bridgewalker, in any depth. It isn't another nifty bitcoin wallet. Not even close. It's a dollar wallet - that uses bitcoin as the transaction network. Big difference. You can get someone to install it if you owe them a few bucks, send them the dough, and they say: "cool!" And then you say: "oh, yeah... that's bitcoin, by the way".

At what point does the person who is owed money say, "wtf am I supposed to do with bitcoins? How do I get my usd out of this damn app?"

perhaps i missed that part on the app's website.

BTC Books

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Quote from: Ichthyo on March 30, 2013, 07:42:23 PM

Attentively observing the facts, but I keep my stance.
Expensify - yet another "might be a bit deal" if it takes off
Bridgewalker - yet another nifty Bitcoin wallet, which could take off when bitcoin would be in more widespread use

So clearly you haven't looked at Bridgewalker, in any depth. It isn't another nifty bitcoin wallet. Not even close. It's a dollar wallet - that uses bitcoin as the transaction network. Big difference. You can get someone to install it if you owe them a few bucks, send them the dough, and they say: "cool!" And then you say: "oh, yeah... that's bitcoin, by the way".

As for Expensify, they're literally everywhere in the corporate world. They are not a bitcoin effort, and they already - as you put it - 'took off'. The point is that they've added bitcoin. It isn't Amazon-level - but it beats the hell out of WordPress.

Crazy

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Not true, you can buy cocaine, PCP, and a pistol, all while paying a premium to a third party to place an order for pizza on your behalf. Stop being so short sighted.

Ichthyo

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Quote from: Ichthyo on March 30, 2013, 07:42:23 PM

But right now, the actual utility of Bitcoin does not justify the price leap.

Quote from: mccorvic on March 30, 2013, 07:47:01 PM

This is the only point of your entire post that was right. The utility doesn't justify the price leap, because it actually justifies a much bigger one than we are experiencing.

you provide us with a nice example what "anticipation" means.

"right now" means today, at easter 2013
right now you can buy a bit more than alpacka socks and weed, so more than $5 is OK
but thats much about it.

Anything beyond? Better utility? Better security? Scalability solved? Readily available debit cards? ...

Answer: "coming soon" Grin

yokosan

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Activity: 700

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We are near the top. It's not going to be a pop it's just going to hover up and down with an increasing downward force over the next 6 months.

mccorvic

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Quote from: Ichthyo on March 30, 2013, 07:42:23 PM

But right now, the actual utility of Bitcoin does not justify the price leap.

This is the only point of your entire post that was right. The utility doesn't justify the price leap, because it actually justifies a much bigger one than we are experiencing.

Ichthyo

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Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 08:21:46 PM

...because we have not added any major services in the last month and the rise has been because of speculation.

Quote from: Ichthyo on March 29, 2013, 08:45:01 PM

This is quite true, with the exception of that e-government site (but I guess only few people have noticed that).
Overall this current action seems to be fuelled by anticipation, so basically we are in "bubble land". Which doesn't mean we can go on for longer than any reasonable bear has still coins left to sell...

Quote from: BTC Books on March 29, 2013, 09:56:21 PM

It isn't even remotely true.

Expensify is a huge deal - added just a few days ago.
Bridgewalker is a service - released in usable beta last week - that is a real game-changer for adoption by the non-geek crowd.

But facts don't interest you, I'm thinking.

Attentively observing the facts, but I keep my stance.
Expensify - yet another "might be a bit deal" if it takes off
Bridgewalker - yet another nifty Bitcoin wallet, which could take off when bitcoin would be in more widespread use

All of this is fine and a long term bullish sign.
But right now, the actual utility of Bitcoin does not justify the price leap.
Conclusion is, the price leap is driven by anticipation. Which means, we are in a bubble. Period.

This does not indicate it will pop tomorrow. This does not even indicate the rate will totally crash (sorry Proudhon).
Just tune down your exuberance by some degrees, people.

tutkarz

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Sites my begin to accept bitcoins or not but you should include also new sites created by bitcoin users too. And this amount is constantly rising.

Le Happy Merchant

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Quote from: aurora on March 30, 2013, 01:18:29 AM

dont worry folks. Once everyone gets enough bitcoins they can afford, they will realize nothing it cant be spend on but some weed, they will start selling.

Selling into weed, not USD.

aurora

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dont worry folks. Once everyone gets enough bitcoins they can afford, they will realize nothing it cant be spend on but some weed, they will start selling.

BTC Books

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Quote from: drawingthesun on March 30, 2013, 12:44:28 AM

That Bridgewalker app looks really good. Neat idea to have a users balance held in USD using MtGox. This could catch on!

I'm using Bridgewalker. The developer is the same guy who created InstaWallet - lo, these many moons gone by.

I've already gotten one more bitcoiner added, using it. It makes explanations almost unnecessary.

As for Expensify, you might want to try here:

http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/28/why-expensify-endorsing-bitcoin-is-a-really-big-deal-social-virality/

Maybe you've heard of Falkvinge...

randrace

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LTC -> BTC -> Silver!

Quote from: proudhon on March 29, 2013, 08:23:36 PM

Sell. Buy back in the single digits. The long slow slide has begun.

proudhon classic!™

drawingthesun

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Quote from: Le Happy Merchant on March 29, 2013, 11:59:00 PM

Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 11:57:44 PM

Does https://www.expensify.com/ use Bitcoin? It says its completely free? And has no mention of Bitcoin on the homepage.

And what is Bridgewalker? Its not coming up on the first page of Google.

I'm not trolling and I am really interested in any new business that sells product or service for Bitcoin, but both of those examples are not very convincing.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-29/expensify-brings-bitcoin-to-main-street

https://www.bridgewalkerapp.com/

Look at these.

Cheers.

That Bridgewalker app looks really good. Neat idea to have a users balance held in USD using MtGox. This could catch on!

Le Happy Merchant

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Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 11:57:44 PM

Does https://www.expensify.com/ use Bitcoin? It says its completely free? And has no mention of Bitcoin on the homepage.

And what is Bridgewalker? Its not coming up on the first page of Google.

I'm not trolling and I am really interested in any new business that sells product or service for Bitcoin, but both of those examples are not very convincing.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-29/expensify-brings-bitcoin-to-main-street

https://www.bridgewalkerapp.com/

Look at these.

drawingthesun

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Merit: 1015

Quote from: BTC Books on March 29, 2013, 09:56:21 PM

Quote from: Ichthyo on March 29, 2013, 08:45:01 PM

Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 08:21:46 PM

I wonder what that means? This is actually feeling like the top because we have not added any major services in the last month and the rise has been because of speculation.

This is quite true, with the exception of that e-government site (but I guess only few people have noticed that).
Overall this current action seems to be fuelled by anticipation, so basically we are in "bubble land". Which doesn't mean we can go on for longer than any reasonable bear has still coins left to sell...

Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 08:21:46 PM

What do we do? Sell high and buy low? Or hold all the way to the bottom?

It isn't even remotely true.

Expensify is a huge deal - added just a few days ago.

Bridgewalker is a service - released in usable beta last week - that is a real game-changer for adoption by the non-geek crowd.

Several others, too. But facts don't interest you, I'm thinking.

Does https://www.expensify.com/ use Bitcoin? It says its completely free? And has no mention of Bitcoin on the homepage.

And what is Bridgewalker? Its not coming up on the first page of Google.

I'm not trolling and I am really interested in any new business that sells product or service for Bitcoin, but both of those examples are not very convincing.

BTC Books

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: Ichthyo on March 29, 2013, 08:45:01 PM

Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 08:21:46 PM

I wonder what that means? This is actually feeling like the top because we have not added any major services in the last month and the rise has been because of speculation.

This is quite true, with the exception of that e-government site (but I guess only few people have noticed that).
Overall this current action seems to be fuelled by anticipation, so basically we are in "bubble land". Which doesn't mean we can go on for longer than any reasonable bear has still coins left to sell...

Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 08:21:46 PM

What do we do? Sell high and buy low? Or hold all the way to the bottom?

It isn't even remotely true.

Expensify is a huge deal - added just a few days ago.

Bridgewalker is a service - released in usable beta last week - that is a real game-changer for adoption by the non-geek crowd.

Several others, too. But facts don't interest you, I'm thinking.

Ichthyo

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 08:21:46 PM

I wonder what that means? This is actually feeling like the top because we have not added any major services in the last month and the rise has been because of speculation.

This is quite true, with the exception of that e-government site (but I guess only few people have noticed that).
Overall this current action seems to be fuelled by anticipation, so basically we are in "bubble land". Which doesn't mean we can go on for longer than any reasonable bear has still coins left to sell...

Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 08:21:46 PM

What do we do? Sell high and buy low? Or hold all the way to the bottom?

Not being all in at the begin of an weekend is always a good idea.
Beyond that, probably it's a good idea just to follow and not trying to run ahead and not reacting on anything too hastily.

fcmatt

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Quote from: Missionary on March 29, 2013, 08:42:28 PM

Quote from: fcmatt on March 29, 2013, 08:38:36 PM

Quote from: Missionary on March 29, 2013, 08:29:15 PM

When non-tech friends of mine are asking me for help on how to get bitcoins, that's a signal for me that we still have not peaked. The current drop or flat-out could just be because of the long weekend. No banks are open (at least not in Sweden) during friday-monday this weekend.

That is the exact opposite reasoning of what to do when being told of the legendary story about a rich man who owns stocks hearing the elevator boy wanting to buy stocks before the great crash of the market.

Seems like everything is bullish right now.

When my mom want's to buy, then I know that it's time to sell. This is NOT mass adoption, not by a long shot.

I do not think mass adoption is going to happen. So that is where we prob differ in opinion.
So when I hear about somewhat techy people asking about how to get bitcoin.. those ppl == ur mom.

Missionary

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Quote from: fcmatt on March 29, 2013, 08:38:36 PM

Quote from: Missionary on March 29, 2013, 08:29:15 PM

When non-tech friends of mine are asking me for help on how to get bitcoins, that's a signal for me that we still have not peaked. The current drop or flat-out could just be because of the long weekend. No banks are open (at least not in Sweden) during friday-monday this weekend.

That is the exact opposite reasoning of what to do when being told of the legendary story about a rich man who owns stocks hearing the elevator boy wanting to buy stocks before the great crash of the market.

Seems like everything is bullish right now.

When my mom want's to buy, then I know that it's time to sell. This is NOT mass adoption, not by a long shot.

fcmatt

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Merit: 1001

Quote from: Missionary on March 29, 2013, 08:29:15 PM

When non-tech friends of mine are asking me for help on how to get bitcoins, that's a signal for me that we still have not peaked. The current drop or flat-out could just be because of the long weekend. No banks are open (at least not in Sweden) during friday-monday this weekend.

That is the exact opposite reasoning of what to do when being told of the legendary story about a rich man who owns stocks hearing the elevator boy wanting to buy stocks before the great crash of the market.

Seems like everything is bullish right now.

Ichthyo

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Quote from: proudhon on March 29, 2013, 08:23:36 PM

Sell. Buy back in the single digits. The long slow slide has begun.

Proudhon, you are like a ghost: you need to repeat the actions from the first crash in 2011 over and over again... sell right before the top, buy back when it rebounds... Wink

drawingthesun

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Quote from: Missionary on March 29, 2013, 08:29:15 PM

When non-tech friends of mine are asking me for help on how to get bitcoins, that's a signal for me that we still have not peaked. The current drop or flat-out could just be because of the long weekend. No banks are open (at least not in Sweden) during friday-monday this weekend.

Thanks, yeah I guess we can't really know what's going to happen until Monday/Tuesday depending where you live. Although I will kick myself if Tuesday comes and instead of $100 we get $10

Missionary

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When non-tech friends of mine are asking me for help on how to get bitcoins, that's a signal for me that we still have not peaked. The current drop or flat-out could just be because of the long weekend. No banks are open (at least not in Sweden) during friday-monday this weekend.

nobbynobbynoob

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Annuit cœptis humanae libertas

Quote from: proudhon on March 29, 2013, 08:23:36 PM

Sell. Buy back in the single digits. The long slow slide has begun.

No chance, my virtual friends and I are buying up all the 'coin at $10-$15 so it'll never be single digits again...

...unless we're discussing dollar price per mBTC of course. Grin

proudhon

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Quote from: drawingthesun on March 29, 2013, 08:21:46 PM

I expected 100 to be broken without any hassle at all, but now we have stopped and are sitting cautiously below 90.

I wonder what that means? This is actually feeling like the top because we have not added any major services in the last month and the rise has been because of speculation.

What do we do? Sell high and buy low? Or hold all the way to the bottom?

Sell. Buy back in the single digits. The long slow slide has begun.

drawingthesun

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Merit: 1015

I expected 100 to be broken without any hassle at all, but now we have stopped and are sitting cautiously below 90.

I wonder what that means? This is actually feeling like the top because we have not added any major services in the last month and the rise has been because of speculation.

What do we do? Sell high and buy low? Or hold all the way to the bottom?

Topic: BTC/USD down from top, getting ready to drop? (Read 2319 times)