Topic: Bullrun top (Read 1051 times)

History has shown us that after halving bitcoin will increase in price and reach new ATH levels and people also expect history to repeat itself, but that doesn't mean it will happen 100% for sure. We are seeing bitcoin make an ATH before the halving and that means things are changing and we don't know what will happen next. The ATH has been created and it is possible that bitcoin will not increase in price anymore, bear season will come, or bitcoin will continue to increase in price and create higher ATHs. Any situation can happen, so don't be subjective and don't have a backup plan.

The drawbacks won't matter when you're in profits when the bull season comes, patience after investing is what matters  because if you don't have patience you can't succeed in investing. From my research, there hasn't been any individual that invested in Bitcoin and hold that hasn't made profits. Holding will always give you profits because after Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin will reach a new highest price and then everybody that bought Bitcoin previously will be in profit if you have the patience and hold you'll see the top of the bull market. Becoming a great investor will require you to not see the pullbacks that happens to Bitcoin price as a negative thing, see them as a chance to accumulate more Bitcoin to hold. Bitcointalk bull run top happens a year after halving but don't get surprised when something different happend this time as the market is getting more unpredictable.

Out of gas is my rough take on what I can see today.   Its not yet over, this week that is & I'm only calling this short term action in its current cycle we appear to need to close back down below the old ATH and review prices in this area.    If weekly bar closes here and a few other signs add in to indicate some weakness and turn to a negative trend then don't fight price action as its normal.


My measure which I've used for years now is the weekly average, below it we are weak and recent prices at highest only just touched that measure and fell back.  We have attempted higher and failed, its not recovering the prices it needs to prove BTC is still positive in this moment.  So we are negative trend near term and set to continue downwards until we can find support.  Daily bar close today to confirm and this Sunday is the weekly bar that should seal our fate until and only if next week can solidly reverse this negative action can I change my mind, for now I'm set negative and looking downwards possibly & probably for the rest of this month.

nice call 📞 .  but do they really fuck with us and crash it.

We really did surpass 70k mark. And achieved a new ATH in btc at around 73k+ after few days you posted this. If you happen to buy some at the 66k, you already got good profits. But who knows, we can really reach such price level in just few days? This is all we can do, speculate but how we act depends on what we really believed on the capability of this market. So even if understood that it is going up, but we don't do nothing, then our predictions are useless.


As the halving is getting near, a lot of users are aiming to reach another ATH for btc. This is understandable. And if you truly believe such even will happen, you can start accumulating satoshis to your own advantage. That is, if you understood the drawbacks that you may possibly encounter as this is still a very volatile market.

If you're right with this the bull top is going to be above people's expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if it was $200K if it really extends into 2025.
What we're experiencing right now is large constant demand with small bullish corrections every week, so we're in a strong bull run with not much craze and overextensions. You can even see that buy how small the corrections are, meaning that we crash down 5% and that's all when historically we had 30% corrections in bull markets and that used to be normal. Now there's just too little leverage, too little FOMO and not many people get liquidated which is extremely bullish if you ask me. IMO we'll be seeing monthly attacks on the ATH followed by corrections for another 6 months or more. If it happens to be 10 or more months, like you're predicting, we might finally end with an overextended top at 3x today's price.

Such an opportunity could again be open to everyone if Bitcoin really falls back to $40K, but for now I don't think Bitcoin will fall that deep again. So for those who still want to buy, I think they can also take advantage of the current price position rather than waiting for a deeper decline in conditions that are uncertain, although it also does not rule out the possibility of it happening.

Selling at this time is also not the wrong option for everyone, but not selling everything can also be a very good option, because so far Bitcoin holders have also felt how extraordinary profits can be seen in the amount of their own assets. However, it actually comes back to each person's choice because for people who still want to keep their Bitcoin it is also very good.

You can see that the price is going down gradually again which nobody know what will happen in next month because, anything can happen either the price of BTC hit $80k before it return back to bear run or the price will continue to decrease below $40k for people to use the opportunity to buy.

If you still have your BTC in your wallet right now, I will advise you to sell to cash out your money so that you will not regret when you see the price decrease to a level you cannot sell to make a good profits like those that sold early this month when the price hit $70k.

Coming to March 2024, we can see the current price of Bitcoin at $66,000. Bitcoin's bull market rally has already started and it appears that Bitcoin's ATH level is at an all-time high. Earlier, when the Bitcoin bull run started in 2021, the price of Bitcoin was the highest at $69,000. After a few months, the price of Bitcoin started to decline, and in 2022, its value dropped to $15,000. Now that the price of Bitcoin has been at $66k for a while now, Bitcoin is somewhat stable. Now let's see how much Bitcoin increases before its price halving. I personally think Bitcoin will cross $70,000 within a few days.

The market is ahead of schedule if you pull back the lense, im changing my opinion and I am calling for a market top roughly a year from now Q1 2025

I bet my house on it....

There is no exact right time to buy Bitcoin but some people think there's which is why they miss buying Bitcoin, you can buy Bitcoin and it continue to dump or you can buy and the price continue to rise. Anybody looking for the top of the bull market, it'll be happening in 2025 and not 2024. But you can still make profits if that's your interest and not interested in holding until bitcoin gets back to the all time high. Bitcoin is now trading above $50,000 and has only approximately $19,000 left to cross it's past all time high but it mightn't cross that price until later in 2025. $19,000 will be looking very small to take that long to pass the price but Bitcoin might fall and this is what history has for us. If Bitcoin falls, lets us not be panicking but seize the chances to accumulate more Bitcoin.

as you can see cryptocurrency is getting increase since February and it is obvious that the level of the increment of Bitcoin this time around it is shows that that will have emerged into a bullrun, so right now the price of Bitcoin is encouraging it hits fifty thousand [50k] and whosoever that I have Bitcoin or purchase a Bitcoin when the price of Bitcoin is at twenty-five thousand to forty-five thousand [25k/45k] will it be in good profit because of the increment of Bitcoin currently.

Secondly we have to understand that to make a profit in cryptocurrency is to goes to it long time investment so people who purchase a Bitcoin when the price was extremely low will it be of benefit as the price of Bitcoin get increase day by day and people who purchase 2 years ago is of profit as the price also accelerate to another point, so that is the advantages of Bitcoin long time investment.

Well, it doesn't matter if the price is growing slowly or inconsistently, it's still a bull market. Bear market is when the price is going down, which is obviously not happening. Moreover, there may be periods in a bull market when the price is dropping, but again it doesn't matter we're in a bear market because of that.   

Lol...As much as your opinion is highly appreciated, I think it is too short for it to hold water here. Well, I would love to read from you better on this, after all, we are all learning, I can learn from you as well. But with all my understanding of trading, we do not just call a price, we call important prices based on reasons, and if that price of yours is important, I like to know, and even why it is important. But for me, no matter what the market is doing, if it hits a certain level and has a significant correction or even a change of trend, that last level achieved becomes a significant price which becomes a valid support and resistance level.

And later, if the market is trying to move back towards the level, it has to move past that level in a comeback fashion and break also it before the continued action of that trend is possible. However, in the case of Bitcoin, the level was actually at $49,100+ (2024's AHT before yesterday's breach). That was the most significant level to call for the trend continuation from the overall reversal from about $15,500 after the years of bullish trend. That's how the market works, not just calling a random value, and even if your value is right based on your different analysis, it still does not stop the right principle of other people's market analysis that has been tested to be working for decades.

I'm waiting to read more from you about the $51,000 though...We learn daily and I'm always open to it.

I am Satoshi.

My guess would be 2025 also, I think turbulence this year though a positive trajectory and the final swing that comes with a ATH would fit into some timeline around 2025.   Some people will expect the highest prices to occur about December, I remember we have a real nasty low in 2018 in December so maybe that month is magnetized in some way however I think further out personally.
  If we're talking the really big numbers not just a revisit of the old ATH and then back down, more time to develop and clear old volume of trades done during that prior ATH run up.  When the debris is cleared then you have the runway clear for takeoff in a proper manner, good momentum and unobstructed flight plan for the moon or however far you think we go.
   Today was a good close, 8 hours above where I had expected some resistance and it may yet hold up.  Could hold up as support we'll see how it develops into weekly closing bar.

The market top will still occur in 2025 if you look at previous cycles, but if you are confident then you can buy from now on.
However, if you are in doubt, you can wait until the right time to buy.

Aren't there a lot of delays in the growth of Bitcoin's price at the moment which isn't what should happen during a bull run? This is the reason why I feel like we are not in the bull run yet but we are just very close to it at the moment. The last few days have been pretty good for Bitcoin, it has been showing positive movements after some time, and some altcoins have been following the movement as well even though some are still going sideways by now.

We will believe that we are in the bull run if we don't see many corrections and dips and if there are larger pumps in the market than regular dumps. Since that hasn't been the case lately, I don't thing we are technically in the bull run but it is yet to begin, with full force.

i was quite pessimistic that it can reach its previous all time high after all $100k is high enough and previous bullrun was heavily motivated by many companies tries to integrate crypto into their product and also investing in it.
but after seeing that after ETF bitcoin got approved there are news that so many people are switching over to investment in bitcoin it kinda makes me sure that maybe bitcoin gonna outright hit all time high in the future.
this was quite positive news that prove that bitcoin as an investment is truly better if compared with the other maybe because the underlying fundamental that bitcoin have being utilized as global commodity thats so hot right now.
if this keeps up the market cap of bitcoin can only go up because the flow of investment increasing means the price also increasing.

it needs to pass 51k not 49k

Patterns hold until they don't. Recognizing patterns is nice, but without understanding why those patterns are there in the first place, you can't make accurate predictions. So far I haven't seen any decent explanation of why there's a cyclic pattern tied to halvenings and why it plays out similarly every time. It could very well be the case in this cycle that because something changed, things will be different this time. It could be because there's more institutional investors this tie, it could be that halvenings are not longer impactful because over 93% of the total supply has been mined already, it could even be that the pattern breaks because too many people recognized it.

IMO moving towards the halving price will go 60k before a correction back to 40k levels post halving ...... sideways for a month or so then a parabolic move upwards smashing previous ATH this year.......  start getting out of market Q1 of 2025 as it will start a downtrend.....

I also see Bitcoin moving upwards, this is the bullish season of the coin, and any bearish attempts we see are only for corrective purposes, the coin will later stabilise and move higher afterwards when the correction has completed. Just like what we are experiencing now. The coin has scared a lot of people in January and I heard people suggesting the $35,000 level as always even as they like to call round figures without even knowing the basis and what is happening in the market. Regardless of that, the breach of $40,243 and $43,606 have proved that the short-term bearish scope is over and the bullish movement is now reactivated.

This is even as the long-term bullish movement is about to be reactivated, but the market must breach above the peak of this year which is around $49,000. The market is approaching the level gradually and I know that very soon, it will breach it and will announce the reactivation of the overall bullish trend that will now be proceeding further for the all-time high of the coin which sits at around $69,000. A subsequent breach of that level will better excite the market and make it move higher, after which the $100,000 is no longer safe in the hand of the coin.

Whatever happens you will be fine if you keep taking profits, many people are accumulating Bitcoin now, and that's the only thing they know how to right now, and nothing will prepared them for profit taking when Bitcoin grows higher, this is how many people loses out in every bull market.

Start planning your exit strategy right now, either a new ATH is achievable or not, you won't miss out completely if you have a profit taking strategy.

It's likely that Bitcoin will smash through 69k this time around as this is what my own tools are showing me, but even at the edge of breaking this old ATH I already have my plan to take profits at that point.

And that is because of the pattern that we have seen in the, although it could be different, but that is the one factors why we see that a new all time high will happen only in 2025 most likely in the last quarter. What might happen in 2024 is that we will obviously break our previous all time high of $69k. And then we have the full year in 2025 to see how big the bull run will be. Estimates is around $100k-$180k, this is just the speculation of the majority so it could be a hit or miss.

But remember though that the market is ever maturing now, maybe it could be less volatile that the previous bull runs, but still with it open 24x7 and then we have big institutions willing to pour their money on the market in the next couple of years, it could be that we will hit that 6 digits early 2025, in my opinion.

I see many people who are not optimistic that Bitcoin will not reach a new ATH this year (2024) and think that a new ATH will be created in 2025, maybe you can say yes or no will happen, but if the potential to break through the ATH in 2021 this year it could happen this year, which I call the new ATH before the Last ATH that will be formed by bitcoin in 2025 in this cycle, I always feel that the last ATH breakthrough will happen this year then the correction and we will form a new ATH in 2025 of the whole cycle, with the growing popularity of bitcoin will certainly increase adoption in a sustainable manner with the development of bitcoin marketing carried out by companies that market their ETFs, thus also the company if they get more bitcoin demand then they also have to buy more bitcoin so that the value can be 1: 1 with its ETF product.

Well, technically we already are in a bull market: after we reached the lowest point of the cycle (and I'm pretty sure we did) bull market starts. Right now it's the worst (and most risky) time to SELL Bitcoin and the best time to BUY Bitcoin. Any money you invest now will most likely double in the next 1.5-2 years. And it's going to be like this until 2025, cycle top and a new ATH.

After the halving it should not be all that easy, because right afterwards it is going to take a while, and people think that it will somehow be easy to go up but it will probably months before it happens. I am expecting the start of bull run to be around November, which is still months and months away so it is not going to be an easy thing at all. Do not expect it to have good results that easily, make sure that you are doing the right thing and you are investing into something that will make you some decent money.

If you are in a rush then investing into bitcoin is not the smart way to go, it's like buying lottery tickets when you want short term gain from bitcoin. Only invest and expect profit if you think that you could wait for long term.

Yeah $150k is realistic. I think that's probably about the generally agreed upon prediction. Could be a bit lower or a bit higher.

Bull runs are now much smaller than they were last decade, because of diminishing returns as you say. It's much harder to move a trillion dollar market up than a ya know like 10 billion dollar market like it was in 2017.

Last bull run was actually quite small, for various reasons, partially because there was a 50% crash in the middle of it. It only went to barely over half the price I expected. Hopefully nothing like that happens this market cycle.

But also there are more permanent reasons why it was much smaller. I think the main one of those is that in previous bull runs Bitcoin was the main get-rich-quick thing for the tons of new people flooding into the market. But last market cycle meme tokens and random app tokens and NFTs are what got all the hype as the get-rich-quick-scheme for the cryptocurrency bull run. So the new uninformed people, for the first time didn't just mostly flock to Bitcoin, but instead ignored Bitcoin and flocked to whatever the flavor of the month altcoin was. Most of them ended up losing badly because they chased after these useless altcoins or NFTs rather than Bitcoin, but that's what uninformed and inexperienced people do, they chase after the supposed get-rich-quick thing.

And I'm not sure if that's going to change. I expect of the tens of millions of people who flood into the market for the first time (or perhaps come back after leaving during the 2022 crash) over the next 18 months, a lot of them are going to entirely ignore Bitcoin and chase after whatever useless token is currently in the news that week or month for skyrocketing upwards. Missing out on that dumb money craze definitely makes Bitcoin not have the sort of insane peak it used to have last decade during bull markets, like when Bitcoin shot up from $6k to $20k in 6 weeks in 2017. Most of that big doomed to collapse peak is from uninformed people finally getting in at the end of the bull run but now it's going to random altcoins instead of Bitcoin.

In 2021 Bitcoin spent quite a while between the two $60k+ peaks up in the $60,000s or high $50,000s. Because there was no great big push from FOMOing dumb money into Bitcoin. It all went into other stuff.

I don't see NFTs getting that sort of stupid money again, but I'm pretty sure whatever meme token or app tokens get pushed by crypto influencers next year are going to take up a lot of that money and we'll likely again see a rounded top for Bitcoin, perhaps at like $130k-$160k, instead of a huge fast push at the end of the market cycle up another like $50k to around $200k.

The addition of TradFi investors through the ETFs will be another interesting wrinkle on the old bitcoin bull run formula. Will they keep steadily buying through the bull run and even through the bear market, perhaps greatly reducing the depths of the bear market compared to normal? Will they act no different that the bitcoin market participants normal act during the market cycle? Or will they maybe even slow their buying down as the prices get high because they've seen the bitcoin boom/crash cycle before and perhaps are a bit more experienced investors and so perhaps they'll wait out the bull run and then start buying again in the bear market. And how much will their behavior influence the bull market up or down, and the bear market up or down?

That's barely going to happen based on the historical charts of Bitcoin because as said by others, the bull run has never created a new all-time high within the same year in which the halving event took place. The current price of Bitcoin is between $42k and $43k, and we just have a month before we enter the halving month which is estimated to be April, for Bitcoin to hit the previous all-time high and make a new record, the price will have to start going up before the halving event.

However, whatever we think or say is solely based on past events and charts and nothing is actual reality and reality can be different from what we might think, so nothing is guaranteed, but based on analysis and general understanding, we shouldn't be expecting a new all-time high within this year.

$150k sounds realistic to me. The returns are diminishing, last cycle we pumped what? x3 from the previous ATH? 2017 cycle top was x20! 2013 even more? So we can expect anything between x2-x3 which is roughly $140k-210k.

This is not just about making sense, but also about market conditions in general and also about the time conditions that could allow this to happen. $150K is a very large amount for the next ATH if we compare it with the previous ATH, because if Bitcoin is able to pass the $70K mark it should be considered an ATH. So there is no need to think that it will be easy and can be exactly what you say because it is still possible to miss what you say. This is a prediction and everyone needs to see how the market reacts after the halving within this year.

This is something that we all believe in, and that makes me a little bit happy, I mean we all try to believe in this and I think there are so many people who has been thinking the same thing which should be fine. If there are so many people who believe in something like this then there are really no reasons out there that would not make it go higher.

I believe that as long as we believe this then we should be fine, I believe that people will buy more and more and with timing it right and correctly you could make some money as well. This isn't all that easy to handle, but it's also not that impossible neither. The best thing to do would be just making sure that you are dealing with something that may not get all that much.

yes, bullish will occur at the end of the year 2024 or early 2025. we will see a drastic increase in the price of bitcoin and altcoins, my estimate is that the price of bitcoin will touch ATH of at least $150k in the upcoming bull run. This is quite reasonable as $150k is only about 2x the previous ATH.

Something good will surely happen to BTC price next year 2025, which is the hope of many long term hodlers in the community because those that predicted for 2024 are planning to change their prediction, because it looks like the price of BTC will not rise above $50k before the end of this year for people to believe what will happen next year.

If you listen to those experts that predicted next year bull run, you will know that they saw something from this current market that made them to conclude that massive bull run will take place fully next year and, you can be part of those that will sell when the price hit $70k next year.

Less volatility sounds like a maturing market. But (some) people earn from volatility, and crypto is still much easier to manipulate than other markets (because it's less regulated). Things like the CEO of JP Morgan, who says a certain investment will go to zero. He wouldn't dare say that about regulated stocks, but it's totally fine for Bitcoin.

just thinking out loud
With most the coin mined up the dynamics will change a little bit as people find new ways to manage a dwindled supply. (I think halving will not be as big of a deal to people once we cross that .78125 point.
Like buying a year earlier. (Not everyone) so it'll speed that year up gap up a little quicker. Untill eventually it's a trend(everybody doing it). Eventually (Everyone) will be loading up in the weeks/month/years before, as soon as that buyer timeframe mindset is crossed supply will vanish and we will see a more regular ATH instead of every 4 years. With less volatility.

With long term investments all investors are very hopeful and looking forward to see the high position of the market. I also believe that the end of this year or the new year in 2025 for bitcoin will bring more surprises. Bitcoin will reach the new ATH it will have to wait to hold bitcoin long term.

The halving will take place in 2024, the year after the halving in 2025, when the Bitcoin price peaks. If you look at the past you can notice that the
year 2013(1.2k BTC price),
2017(19.4k BTC price),
year 2021(69k BTC price),
year 2025(?)
 is likely to be the highest price. Bitcoin price is likely to reach its peak in 2025 according to the opinion of various experts.

Wow ATH this December ? then that is one of the best thing that may happen in 2024 but that is if
we will be truly seeing this because what many believes is  the market will grow in the coming year and that is 2025?
some says at least mid summer or in the first quarter of the next year.

In my opinion, the first time BTC will reach a new ATH above 70k$ is in December this year.
and will continue to rise until 2025.
that is my opinion.

The question is applicable for all, not just to those who are long-term investors, since he is only asking if what we think about the bull run. And there is no right or wrong answers to this. And even if he wants to know if there is a bull run in the quarter four of this year, long-term investors won't still predict it accurately despite having a good experience on this market.

But since there is an upcoming halving, and then the ETF for BTC is already approved, add in the possibility of ETF in ETH, we might really be having that bull run which everyone is hoping about and it may not take too long for it to occur. Maybe second or third quarter, it was already there. And like you said, this bull run is bigger than ever because that is always how it works, with or without positive events.

Franky explained it well.

You just have to count it with another year because of the pattern that it has shown in the past. You don't have to be an expert in reading charts or markets by doing so.

If you think that the top will be the Q4 for this year, you might be disappointed but that's fine. We've got all our expectations every after the halving and we might see the start from there or we're already far from that point compared to this time we discuss.

It is very difficult to predict where the bullrun top will be, from the past bull market experience, so much excitement is created in the market during the bullrun because fresh money enters the market, people keep buying bitcoins in the hope of profit, as a result of which the market continues to rise. So finding a definite top of the market is very difficult. Checking the history after Bitcoin halving gives an assumption that Bitcoin will enter a bull market, as we have seen in the past that the new Bitcoin ATH crosses quickly after Bitcoin halving. So I expect Bitcoin to perform well this year and cross the new ATH.

There's nothing wrong with hoping the previous cycle repeats itself, but personally I don't expect too much, especially this year. I don't expect bitcoin price to print a new ATH this year above $69k, but if it happens then I or all of us should be grateful. The cycle may or may not repeat itself, we never know what will happen but history repeats itself every time Bitcoin goes through its halving.

All of us are looking forward to it, but there is also a possibility that the new ATH will fail after the halving because after all the pattern has been studied too much. The potential for failure exists, but I believe the price will be pushed higher due to increased FOMO. We'll see and wait patiently, but to anticipate big spikes, it's best to build a stronger portfolio.

Well it's pretty much possible if history repeats itself but if Bitcoin breaches previous ATH then the expectations of bull run will be ignited further and $100k will break hell loose as it would be an historic landmark figure which has been predicted for a while. All I would say is that we can expect a repeat of previous cycles but need to be ready for any outcome and have alternative plans in place as crypto is highly unpredictable and there is no guarantee that same trend may repeat though I believe we will see history repeating.

That is exactly what the exchanges in the crypto world think as well, but for some reason people like them a lot more. When there is a bull run, people run to coinbase and binance and what not, thinking they are great places to make money, when in reality, the yare also the places most lose their money too, they work both ways. If there is a volume then there is a profit, they take money from the trading fee.

All in all, both blackrock and exchanges make more money during bull run, because in theory it has been proven that during bull run people trade more, so they get more trading fee, that means companies make more profit. They are not really happy that you are making a profit, but they are happy that price going up means they are getting more fee from you.

The likes of BlackRock probably doesn't fully care whether there's a bull run or not. After all, whether the price increases or decreases, the fees will continue to flow. And that's where the money comes from. But a bull run is probably a big reason for investors to be bullish as well. More investment flows in. That's more fees, more money, as well.

These investment companies don't own the billions of dollars in Bitcoin they're holding. Those coins are not at their disposal. They can't just dump them whenever they want. It's not theirs.

Bro, let me just make it clear to you, you might be right that a bull run happens at halving time, but it might not start then and that is a major bull run where the market will move so much, others could happen. This doesn't stop the mini-bull run from happening, which is what we experienced in the last months of 2023. A bull run simply means a bullish trend, and it would be wrong of anyone to condemn the bullish trend that happened for 5 months as no bull run. Even at correction, it can still rebound and continue the movements. Good, the major bull run is coming after halving, we are all waiting for it and it might make the Bitcoin market move so well to hit the current ATH and move higher to even above $100,000.

Though this is a speculation, but would be what will likely happen. These would be the post-halving effect of the market. But don't you think that it might be too late for some people if it is then they are now investing in Bitcoin? Imagine those who started their investment on the first day of 2023, they are assured to make money in Bitcoin in multiples even if the post-halving effect will not see it far more than $100,000. But for those who are waiting for having, what if Bitcoin continues to push higher and almost hits the ATH of $69,000 when the halving happens, what will be their fate if the next ATH will be barely $100,000+? They can't make much, it is obvious.

most of the predictions say that we will be between $40,000 to $70,000 this year and $100,000 to $170,000 for the next year. Therefore, unless there are changes, these expectations will remain the basic ones, even though in the previous cycle the bottom was less than $20,000, which is what It may suggest a change in the shape of the 4-year bitcoin cycles, but it is better not to bet on that according to the current circumstances.

I agree with people that it is going to take about 13-15 months to see the peak, doesn't mean that it has to be exactly at that point, there could be some changes, but it will definitely look a bit different. I think that should be the point. I know that it will take some time for people to see this as working, but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with anything major, we just need to wait until then and accumulate as much as possible.

When the time comes and the bull run starts, it is not going to be just one month, it will start going up more and more, and will peak at some point. Our job is to make a lot of profit during that period from here to peak, that's when the real money is made, many people retire from their earnings during bull runs.

I think top of market is actually 2025 probably not this year as we are starting too late maybe.   Right now theres a downtrend to work out.   Later on we have halvening to navigate which is not all automatically positive, a rough guess for trajectory and rate of possible gains in this year I would say to just extrapolate the previous 3 or 6 months of price action.    Since we've so often gone sideways this idea does not lead us to grand price gains unless we break out and exceed previous trajectory which is where I would stop expecting this outcome to come true.

And I think it's going to be smaller because of Wall Street involvement. These people aren't interested in 300% gains, all they need is a simple 20% a year and they'll be happy with how much money they have, so I think that if we get a strong bull run they will try to capitalize on that and one entity holding 500k bitcoin can do what it wants in this market. It can stop any bull run if it decides to dump it.
I strongly believe that if we go 2x from the last ATH Wall Street will be selling everything because they rarely experience that kind of profit these days.
Don't misunderstand me, I'm not bearish here. 2x is somewhere between 120k and 150k, but I don't see this bull market as stronger than 2018 or 2013. The more institutions get involved the less gains I'd expect from bitcoin. Probably only 150k this cycle and maybe 250k next cycle in 2028.

There are different predictions in market. Many are predicting that before the thi year will end and after the halving the bull will start to manifest in the market and there will be different signs in the market. Some predicted that before this year will end, the price of bitcoin will be on the rate of $50+k to $60+k and others are predicting that in the bull of next year, the price will reach at least $100,000 US dollar. These are all good predictions before the market is also in the volatile nature so nobody knows what up of the market.

In my own opinion in the market, now that bitcoin has not even reach halving and the price is reading $40k and above then after the halving for one month interval bitcoin price will reach $50k and at the end of the closing year the price will hit $55k.

I don't know if we can call this a bull run already, as per definition though and as far as I can see, bull run starts right after the halving. So although we have seen the price going as high as $49k after the news of approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF, the price still makes a correction. So for me it's better to wait after the halving and see how the market will grow overtime.

It could be close to $100k for this year, but the top could happen in 2025 though. And we should get to it one step at a time. I mean we should peak at our previous ATH for this year, and then by next year bull run continues and it could be as high as $180k++.

Yes this bullrun we are already in /started....

I guess I consider myself as a long time investor. I don't have much, but I have been hodling my little Bitcoin for many years already. I have Bitcoin that can be traced back more than 5 years ago. It's small but it's growing little by little.

This bull run will be bigger than any bull run in the past. This bull run, I'm referring to the bull run following the halving in April, is going to get us back to the ATH which was hit more than 2 years ago already. Not only that, this next huge bull run will finally bring us to $100,000 for the first time.

Do you mean the bull run coming, as we've not returned to an immediate one now? Well, I expect a huge bull run this year, something similar to what we experienced a few months ago, but it will be double of that size as it will be the major one expected by everyone, so there will be FOMO everywhere at that time. This will happen after halving, the effect might not be immediate, but I suspect an immediate one this time due to the people's expectations that are more than before. Though it might start in weeks as people just want to be part of the world cake brought by Bitcoin, no one wants to miss out like the old times.

We will do well if we are still patient for now though, the market is not just encouraging now, and at the current high level of $40,000, I think that it is not so good to risk buying heavily now unless you want to DCA the coin. Nevertheless, be sure of Bitcoin hitting above $100,000 in the next bull run, and I suspect that it would have hit that level in the late months of this year or the early months of next year. I hope this meets a good view of yours as well, but be very careful and DYOR even as you engage the market carefully and managerially.

Clear enough to understand the market and the movement from the first Halving up to now and not like what most said in many thread that they are expecting Bull Market this year at least in December but suddenly this  make things possible to understand that in the following year means 2025 is the time that the breaking of ATH means we may see  100k in that same year .
I also once listen to those comment but now finally realized that there will never be Bull market this year not even there is the approval of Bitcoin ETF.

Market top won't be this year. If it was that would be a whole year earlier than the previous cycles.


I expect it won't quite take until Nov/Dec 2025 for the peak to hit this time around. I would guess it will peak summer / early Fall 2025. I think by end of 2024 the price will already have passed the ATH, simliar to 2020, except whereas 2020 didn't do much for the first 9 months of the year and then the price started shooting up in the Fall, I think Bitcoin will gradually grind up this year toward $70k+ instead of doing it all in just the last few months. And I expect ATH to actually get hit maybe early Fall, like Sept/Oct, with the price maybe reaching $80k by end of year.

On second thought: doesn't the anticipation speed up the pattern? If enough people start buying Bitcoin because they expect it to go up, it will go up. But then they'll expect it to drop eventually, so they'll start selling. They don't want to be too late, so they'll sell earlier and earlier each bull run until eventually the increased scarcity from the halving is completely included in the price before the halving even happens.

Yes, but always bearing in mind that what has happened historically need not be repeated in this cycle, as has been discussed, and, in fact, as more and more cycles pass, we will most likely see more irregularities in the supposed historical pattern (I say supposed because patterns are a human construct, as I have explained in several threads on the subject).

But yes, I too think it is quite safe to buy now and we will have an interesting appreciation over the next year or year and a half.

Based on historical data, after Bitcoin's halving event, Bitcoin will break its old peak 6 months later. The Bitcoin Halving event is expected to take place on April 20, so if based on what has happened, around the end of this year (October to December) we will see Bitcoin break through  its old peak of 69k USD in 2021. So, to prepare for the upcoming growth of Bitcoin, I believe now is the best time to accumulate and buy Bitcoin. If we take the current price of 40k USD, then if you buy now, at least by the end of the year you will have a profit of about 75% with almost no risk. I think this is the most attractive investment this year

Well, if we look at it historically, I don't think that's entirely true. 

In the 2012 halving, Bitcoin was still in its early stages of development, and adoption was much much lower. 

First halving cycle (November 2012 - July 2016) - Highest price $1,170 (November 2013)   

In the 2016 halving, Bitcoin had gained more traction, and adoption was increasing. The price reached $1040 in 2016, which was still below the previous all-time high from 2013, but very close. The price reached a new ATH in February 2017.

Second halving cycle (July 2016 - May 2020) - Highest price $19,400 (December 2017)   

The price reached $20,000 in 2020 (after the third halving), which surpassed the previous all-time high from 2017. The closing price for BTC in 2020 was $28,994.00, on December 31, which is almost a 50% increase compared to the previous ATH.

So if history repeats itself, we could even see >100k by the end of this year.

sources:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-price

Hey the question remains the same because $69k is the current ATH which was achieved in last cycle hence the question would be Bitcoin breaches it's previous ATH and reaches new ATH in the halving year. The answer would be "NO", Bitcoin doesn't breach the previous ATH in the halving year but rather the following year and I think the cycle will repeat and Bitcoin might not break $69k this year since 2024 is the halving year. It should eventually happen in 2025.

I think he was referring to the previous cycle's ATH, not the new ATH.  So, the right question would be, considering previous cycles, do we expect 69k by the end of this year?

alot of people were expecting the ETF locked and unlocking of coins and swapping between ETF would have happened on OTC platforms like coinbase premium or other darkpool markets

but it appears coinbase was selling ex-etf locked coins into the main coinbase spot market

there are some things that influence when things happen

for instance the 2011 ATH was influenced by the transition to GPU pool mining that intensified
for instance the 2013 ATH was influenced public release of ASIC mining

the 2017 influenced by the dev celebration of segwit mandated completion before their sponsors november 2017 deadline
 the 2021 influenced by bot traders trying to predict the top using historic patterns.. so ended up with a twin peak event (loyce mentioned curve)

with the halving happening in april means the +1 year is minimum april 2025 for ATH and as i said spring summer.. meaning AFTER april
..
there are some speculations the reason why some ATH hit near year end was more to do with certain traders tax year ends of december. as when they would want to invest before year end. if they can only invest so much per tax year

im not going to speculate that the pattern will exact follow again because of these reasons:
this years halving is earlier in year than previous

though 2017 was december peak many people delayed ATH earlier due to segwit drama and deals and tax

however the 2012 halving was november 28th but the 2013 ATH nov 2013 so started FOMO before the 1+ year
so not exactly like some are speculating as 500 days..

2021 twin peaked april and october

so its not a golden rule of 500+ days.. in some cases its more like 1 year after halving
...
another prime reason not to settle on waiting for december 2025 is that people are already planing on a ATH happening sometime from start of summer 2025<->year-end 2025. so that planning usually breaks a pattern to make the furthest date predictions happen sooner because everyone is getting motivated to "get-in" before the FOMO

In my opinion it's not a good thing, it looks good but not great and right or wrong I see it looks like a recent decline like a market response test.

That's why it was only during those times that there was only rejection of the bitcoin spot ETF, right? In this instance, during this period, no decline occurred in the Spot ETF, and there was now an opportunity to buy directly from institutional investors who were approved by the US SEC.

It means that it is possible that in these halving times, the ATH of 70k$ that happened in 2021 will actually be exceeded because many whale investors can manipulate the target price they want to happen. It may or may not happen like that. Especially since there are many people who expect to earn $100,000 each bitcoin this year (2024-2025) or more.

See here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63374431

Its never been less than a year from halving to subsequent high:

2012 it took 366 days to reach the high
2016 it took 526 days
2020 it took 548 days

Assuming the pattern more or less repeats, it'll be 5-600 days after the halving, say 16-20 months, say Aug to Dec 2025.

My guess is the high will be between 100 and 150k, most likely nearer to 100k.

Yes, I think you are right. If the historical pattern repeats itself, I think we could see 70k by the end of this year.

Peak bullrun quarter 2024, I'm not so sure because after the halving, it will wait 1 year more, which is the prediction known from various sources including the previous cycle is almost the same.
Q4 2024 won't be the peak but it might be back to the previous ATH of $68K the rest we don't know because we can't pinpoint the exact time only guesses where we have different views.
It may be too early to say, but it's okay if you want to do it because someone has a target prediction about bitcoin this is part of speculation people are free to do it, my prediction is 2025 (maybe Q3/4 2025).

Yeah, I think 2024 will probably be a wild ride for cryptocurrencies.  There's scheduled to be another Bitcoin halving event in May 2024.  That could set off a frenzy like we saw in 2017 and 2021.  But you never know - the economy or new regulations could change things too. 

We've all noticed Bitcoin seems to peak after these halving events.  The last two times, we hit all-time highs about a year later.  But past performance doesn't guarantee future results or anything. and  In crypto, expect the unexpected.

2024 will be interesting either way.  I just hope we dont see a repeat of the crypto winter that followed 2021's highs. 

Good post, only wondering why you think that next ATH is going to happen in spring/summer of 2025? Until now, all ATHs were reached in November/December.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Bitcoin normally reaches previous cycle's ATH during the halving year. Then why do you think we're not going to exceed last cycle's ATH this year? 

I was already surprised the previous ATH was "round" instead of a very steep increase followed by a hard collapse.

As much as I expect a new ATH after the halving, there comes a day it won't happen.

We know there's going to be bullrun but we are not certain about when this is going to begin, so it's expected that we always get ourselves prepared, anything can show up immediately after halving or later in the year, halving is coming through between the first and second quarter of this year, which after this comes the bullrun, there will always be a market pump and we will experience a new high with as many digital currencies as possible in the crypto market, this begins with bitcoin.

With franky1 here, I've posted over the years and stand by my belief in ATH a year after halving. Even without the economic impact on sentiment (I always think it's because of belated realisation but over time pricing in with more awareness of halving lessens that impact) I still think the ATH should follow the same pattern.

It's not yet too well known, for some reason. Because I'm now past experiencing my second ATH and we still have experts predicting tops around or even before halving. Guess they all want the pattern shattered.

Absolutely that’s when normally we see the new ATH price for the Bitcoins. If we see the past graph, then always around October and November we have seen Bitcoins going really up and breaking the ATH price. So we have enough time to accumulate as many Bitcoins as we can. So don’t panic much and buy the coins at normal price. Then hold for the Q4th of the year and you will make maximum profit.

Let's just wait and hope for a greater days ahead. After ETF approval the price was expected to surge higher than the $49k, but currently it's down and nobody know what next. But whatever the case may be, it's of good porpos.

Not sure about it, but if you are a long term investors, all time high is 2017 and then followed by 2021. So if the pattern continues then the top will be or might be q4 2025. And we have a lot of interesting prediction as what will be the top price,

• 1 Bitcoin will be $173,566 before November, 2025
• Cathie Wood Sees Bitcoin Price Reaching $1.5M by 2030 After ETF Approval
• Bitcoin price could hit $750K to $1M by 2026 — Arthur Hayes
• Standard Chartered Raises Bitcoin Price Forecast — Now Expects BTC to Reach $50,000 This Year, $120,000 Next Year

It's hard and nearly impossible to know where is a top and when will the top be seen?

You can use Pi Cycle Top indicator as part of your prediction.

• https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/
• https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/pi-cycle-top-indicator

This indicator won't help you to exit before and at the top but a little bit after the top but it will still be a good exit. At least you already know where is the top and by exiting, you will avoid 2 or 3 bearish years.

It is general consensus in the community that BTC will not top this year, it will encounter a resistance region and move sideways, many people who are stuck in important price regions (50k, 60k,) will exit the game making the bearish movement of the Market.

The pattern is very clear, just as Frank said. The cycle always repeats itself, infinitely... understand the dynamics of the cycle that makes you money.

but anything can happen, past movements do not guarantee the future, they are just probabilities.

each ATH (bullrun top) happens +1 year after halving
2011 ATH($30) year after first market open
2013 ATH($1.2k) year after 2012 halving
2017 ATH($20k) year after 2016 halving
2021 ATH($70k) year after 2020 halving
thus mid spring-summer 2025 prediction for next ATH (bullrun top)

halving year normally does not exceed previous ATH

2012 halving year reached $15:  did not exceed 2011 ATH($30)
2016 halving year reached $750:  did not exceed 2013 ATH($1.2k)
2020 halving year reached $20k:  did not exceed 2017 ATH($20k)

so 2024 pattern would expect to not exceed 2021 ATH($70k)

..
with that said. when a pattern is too well known. many people anticipate and plan to beat the pattern, thus breaking the pattern

Hi all, long time investor   what's everyones opinion on this bullrun .?... IMO will see a market top q4 2024