I think its a big mistake to compare Bitcoin with stablished markets. Bitcoin is young and small, its going to be very volatile, both up and down and its going to beahve like a young market not like a big old market. Nobody should be surprised at the events of the last days and weeks.
I think that is only true if Bitcoin manages to play that card. If the bursting bubble scares off a big part of the newcomers, the market is almost a closed ecosystem, and I see no reason for it to behave differently from an old market, just accelerated.
In fact, there is a difference: Bitcoin has no floor of real value to fall to, apart from the scarce coins. But they largely haven't been traded yet! There's no net that catches the price if things go bad, but easily a factor 10 down in value if a larger fraction of the coins appear to be traded for money.
Okay, I can't tell the future or anything; but it
can happen!
