Topic: By the end of 5th Bitcoin halving wait 116 days (1 year / π= 3.14) (Read 64 times)

While any halving is supposed to create scarcity and increase demand for BTC, there is also a sense of urgency created by investors during the time of and after the halving  and thus, the price of BTC increases even higher
when whale investors demand, Old merchant bitcoiners, new investors and bitcoin ETF holders, all demand to HODL or invest in more BTC.

It would take approximately 115 years, 9months and 7days, if we were to be more specific when BTC gets to complete 100% of total amount in circulation, but if after the next BTC halving we have to wait for 116days for it to have gotten to the  97% Bitcoin limit  ,that means BTC must have achieved its aim and goal of getting to or nearing the 21million BTC and that's a wrong calculation, unless you meant something else which isn't clearly defined in your story.

From CMC, over 19.68 million Bitcoin which is about 94% are already in circulation and I don't know if this included the lost Bitcoins. Accord to Investodia, 20% of all Bitcoin have been lost, a number consider too high for an innovation that is less than two decades. There is even a possibility that this number will go higher with time and even when it might seem good for HODLers, I see it as a general problem for Bitcoin as it further confirms the risk associated with Bitcoin.

Op is probably trying to point out that in the first 19 years of Bitcoin we hit 97% if the total circulation, but it would take us another > 100 years to get to 100% of the total circulation. It means that sometime in the next 50-60 years, fees should have already become more valuable to miners than the reward and the network should have efficiently transitioned to function as such.

Traders and speculators will also need some adjustments because the impact of halving on the market and the '4 year cycle' rhythm may already be disrupted significantly

You start from a false premise, there's a real world out there outside the calculations, you know? Bitcoins lost are no longer in circulation, so we have probably already reached that percentage, but as we cannot calculate those lost with certainty we cannot speak with certainty about the percentage of Bitcoins in circulation.

Maybe you are implying that after halving the mining reward of 3.125 BTC per block will be approximately equal to Pi of 3.14, right?

But I did not understand what that meant and what it might affect the price or future movement of Bitcoin, if it has any relationship at all. Frankly, I do not understand why all this complexity. I think the issue is much simpler than that and people do not want all these complications.

Simply, people do not want to bother with all these complicated calculations. They just want to know: Is this good or bad for the price in particular and for Bitcoin in general?

The value of Bitcoin is proportional to Bitcoin Halving (reward).
(The lower the reward, the higher the price)

The Pi Cycle indicators is composed of the 111 day moving average (111SMA) and a 2x multiple of the 350 day moving average (350SMA x 2) of Bitcoin's price. This metric shows when BTC becomes significantly overheated (the shorter MA reaches the levels of the larger MA), and has historically been a good indicator for cycle tops.
 
an exponential distribution,
fτ(t) = αe
−αt
where α = 1/t0 = 1/E[T]. If the miner starts mining at t = 0,
and if we denote T1 the time needed to mine a first block,
then T2, . . . ,Tn the inter-block mining times of successive
blocks, then the Markov property shows that the random variables T1,T2, . . . ,Tn are independent and are all identically

distributed following the same exponential law. Therefore,
the time needed to discover n blocks is
Sn = T1 + T2 + . . . + Tn .
The random variable Sn follows the n-convolution of the exponential distribution and, as is well known, this gives a Gamma
distribution with parameters (n, α),
fSn
(t) =
α
n
(n − 1)!
t
n−1
e
−αt
with cumulative distribution
FSn
(t) =
Z t
0
fSn
(u)du = 1 − e
−αt Xn−1
k=0
(αt)
k
k!
.
From this we conclude that if N(t) is the process counting the
number of blocks validated at time t > 0, N(t) = max{n ≥
0; Sn < t}, then we have
P[N(t) = n] = FSn
(t) − FSn+1
(t) =
(αt)
n
n!
e
−αt
,
and N(t) follows a Poisson law with mean value αt. This result is classical, and the mathematics of Bitcoin mining, as
well as other crypto-currencies with validation based on proof
of work, are Poisson distributions.

https://prnt.sc/lxfO24fLqO3d

What is the importance of Pi number here?

History of Bitcoin shows that it makes new all time high many months like one year (12 months) and longer after its halving, not after 116 days or about 4 months after a halving.

So ? What you saying ? Some kind of PI number in this distibution ?

Perhaps a computer program can find some more PI numbers.

Many=just math
Few=Hmm
One=coincidence or secret meaning ?

By the end of the next halving (with reward 3.125 BTC per block) we reach 96.875% of the 21M limit.
116 days later is target of 97% of Bitcoin limit in circulation.
Note that 116 days is one year divided by Pi number: 365 days divided by 3.14.

- remotemass