Bitcoinfees is again 1001% wrong , telling you 120s/b.
It nearly always will estimate many times over the required fee.
The predictions are based on blockchain data of the last 3 hours, as well as the current pool of unconfirmed transactions (mempool).
First, a likely future mempool and miner behavior is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation. From the simulations, it can be seen how fast transactions with different fees are likely to be included in the upcoming blocks.
The predicted delay shown here is chosen to represent a 90% confidence interval.
Although blocks are found on average every 10 minutes because there is variance in luck involved in mining there will frequently be gaps of 25 minutes or even 50 minutes to an hour. Taking a sample of the last 3 hours almost always involves one or more of these gaps. That means the 90% probability of getting in the first block will always require a very high fee to get in the first block immediately after one of these gaps. Then the problem is compounded by so many people using the overestimated fee. If you look at the bar chart the confirmed transactions in the last 24hrs always has a large spike wherever Bitcoinfees recommendation has been. Right now it shows 39,782 transactions at 120 sats/byte and then almost nothing until under 10 sats/byte.
I really start think estimatefee is doing this on purpose
If there would be a problem with their 72h/3h model, that would have persisted only for a maximum of two days, but now they still predict the same tx as before.
It's either the model of their prediction which is flawed, the configuration of their mempool, or ...as I said , on purpose.
And I've watched that site quite a few times the last days, it's no difference even if blocks are mined faster or there is a gap, it's flat on 120.
As long as w have 5 days with almost every block having a few 5sat/b or at least 10sat/b it's clear that 120sat/b is insane.
I wonder if localbitcoins has dropped their receiving bitcoin fee....
I hope the miners start accepting and mining 1 Sat/byte transactions as well to eat through the remaining transactions.
Before that, I hope that we will see exchanges not spamming the network and implementing segwit
When I checked the mempool two days ago half of the largest txs where made by hitbtc:
https://blockchain.info/address/1EEqRvnS7XqMoXDcaGL7bLS3hzZi1qUZm1
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