http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/old_calculator.php
if you look at the source, you have:
var rate = your rate
var target = 0x00000000ffff0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 / your difficulty
var p = target*rate*1000/Math.pow(2,256);
var result = (-Math.log(1-your confidence interval in decimal)/p)
where result is in seconds
Topic: Calculating 95% confidence interval of block find time (Read 1302 times)
Your average time to find a block is 50% confidence.
For 75% (50%+25%) confidence, the time is 2x of the average time to find a block.
For 87.5% (50%+25%+12.5%) confidence, the time is 3x of the average time to find a block.
For 93.75% (50+25+12.5+6.25) confidence, the time is 4x of the average time to find a block.
for 96.875% (50+25+12.5+6.25+3.125) confidence, the time is 5x of the average time to find a block.
I think this is how it works. I'm pretty sure you can come up with a formula based on those numbers.
For 75% (50%+25%) confidence, the time is 2x of the average time to find a block.
For 87.5% (50%+25%+12.5%) confidence, the time is 3x of the average time to find a block.
For 93.75% (50+25+12.5+6.25) confidence, the time is 4x of the average time to find a block.
for 96.875% (50+25+12.5+6.25+3.125) confidence, the time is 5x of the average time to find a block.
I think this is how it works. I'm pretty sure you can come up with a formula based on those numbers.
Anyone?
Hello,
I know how to calculate the average time to find a block given a hash rate and difficulty.
However, I would like to calculate the 95% confidence interval on the time to find a block. That is, with 95% certainty the block is found in x +- y minutes, where x is the average and y is the 95% limit.
How is that calculated?
I know how to calculate the average time to find a block given a hash rate and difficulty.
However, I would like to calculate the 95% confidence interval on the time to find a block. That is, with 95% certainty the block is found in x +- y minutes, where x is the average and y is the 95% limit.
How is that calculated?
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