Topic: Can anyone guess what could he Bitcoin Difficulty After 100 years Till now? (Read 142 times)

Before we can answer this question, we have to predict estimate/predict various things such as,
1. Bitcoin price.
2. Microprocessor speed. I don't expect Moore's Law remain relevant in next 100 years, so we can't simply make caculation 2^100 * speed of Antminer S19.
3. Electricity price. There are many new/alternative energy source, but who knows which one will be popular in the future.
4. How much on-chain Bitcoin transaction is created every minute.
5. And other things i haven't mentioned yet.

So while anyone can make a guess, i doubt anyone could make educated guess.

You can check the hash chart, get the growth rate per half decade  and get the ratio of growth between the two sample and calculate from there then calculate the difficulty on the derived hash power.  I think with the improvement of technology, and assuming of mass adoption, the difficulty will increase because of many miners participating in mining tx fees given that it is profitable to mine tx fee .  Given that tx fee does not suffice, we can see a possibility of huge decline in difficulty due to less hashing power mining blocks.

Yes, I can make a guess. About 50 million dollars per bitcoin. A guess for difficulty is the same as today.

The bet is the activity. If there's activity, there will be transactions. Transactions grant an income to miners.

You'll most likely be alive to witness the serious transition from one main source of income (block subsidy) to the other (transaction fees). If it doesn't seem to work, it most likely won't in 2123 either.

Even though i know that bitcoin mining reward is tie to the price at whichever point if not bitcoin mining have received a big positive boost in the last year where bitcoin mining harsh rates made an all time high of 158 harsh rate per second which was a record high in 2022 but because of the drop in the price of bitcoin and cost of running mining operation have made bitcoin miners to suffer from the result of low rewards due to bitcoin price drop.

Bitcoin mining is gradually transforming into renewable energy to support energy and environmental coexistence which is one of the major set back against the proof of work Algorithm. But with the latest mining equipment and devices, bitcoin mining in the coming years will be lucrative and more advanced as the quest for bitcoin scalability continues more and more Bitcoin miners will come into the operation and contribute to the bitcoin network abd share the rewards which will make more room for competition that will allow advance development to the entire bitcoin mining sector and global adoption.

It is uncertain to say how Bitcoin will be in the coming days, moreover, it is not at all possible to say how the position of Bitcoin will be in the world after 100 years.

In the future we will get next  halving
2024 halving, block rewards 3.125 BTC

100 years later we will get(Not me because I can't alive till 2123 )
2124 halving, block rewards 0.00000009 BTC

So it can be easily estimated that after 100 years from today if Bitcoin survives then the circulation supply and total supply will be equal.  It is difficult to say whether there will be mining at all.  However, if the price of Bitcoin does not increase, then mining will not be possible at all.  Moreover, the next generation of 100 years will be more technology dependent than the current generation, so they will discover the techniques that benefit the mining sector.

Anyone can guess.

What it will be, on the other hand, no one will know until then unless BTC dies, then it wont matter.

Given Bitcoin's continuity for a hundred years, guessing is that it will be a global currency for daily use is logical, which means that there will be a lot of side networks, the lightning network and a lot that will work side by side with the basic network, which means that the bitcoin mining model for profit will not be the only motivation Also to secure this money and ensure that there is no fraud.

If Bitcoin is turned as a value of value, mining will continue to ensure that no one will control 51%.

So, as long as there is a demand and growth, mining will continue, which means that the hashrate will be the least strike from now, but it will be high enough to ensure the impossibility of a small individual or society on the network.

Everyone who buys bitcoin to invest for future use is hoping to see a gain if not we can't predict how the market might be or become in the next years after because bitcoin price can pump and dump at any time if you are planning to mine BTC I consider you to buy so that you can have more. Nobody can predict what bitcoin could be after 100 years because we all know how the economy might turn to sometimes it maybe the bitcoin price may pump up in the next 100 years or dump.

The fact that you are old enough to sign up for the form and ask such a question suggests that you need to be a supercentenarian to witness it,  out of the nearly 8B population we have right now, studies show that there is between 300 and 350 supercentenarian, in other terms, 1 in 1000 centenarians (people who live up to 100 years) will get to 110, and to be centenarians the chances are 1 in 1000, so it's extremely unlikely for any of us to be there in a 100 years from now.

Now that we got the human race life span stuff out of the way, the answer to your question is "nobody knows", everything will be determined by the VALUE extracted by miners, even the comment above that says


could be wrong, when all the 21M BTC are mined, BTC could very well be trading at say 100M dollars each, if we were to assume that transaction fees are 5% of the total block reward, today it's 0.3125 which is about $5000 + $100,000 for the block reward = $105,000. in 2123 the total fees could be 0.1 BTC per block so at 100M that's 10,000,000$ per block, which even after accounting for inflation still beats the now "105,000", even with BTC trading at 10M still beats it.

We also don't know how adopted BTC will be, if the protocol is changed and BTC becomes a means of payment for daily usage, maybe the block size will increase and we would have millions of transactions that all add up to make a large sum of fees, maybe it just becomes a store of value that doesn't move much and the total fees won't add up to a fraction of what they are now and thus only 1-2% of the total hashrate is sustained, you can't even imagine what is going to happen next year when the rewards drop by 50%, let alone predict difficulty in 100 years.


But one thing to keep in mind is that there will always be someone willing to mine BTC, even if the block reward was only enough to buy a bottle of milk, 2 folks with their old CPUs would be mining it, in fact, even if power bill exceeds the rewards people would still mine it just to sustain the blockchain which they invested in, we could even have on-demand mining, say nobody broadcasts any transaction for 24 hours, nobody mines no blocks, miners see pending transactions, they turn their gears on, just to mine that transaction into a block and turn off their rigs again, some difficulty rules will need to be adjusted if we get to that stage, but sure thing is, anything is possible when a 100 years had passed.

And since we don't know how things are going to be in 100 years from now, it's best to assume that the young generation then will figure out what to do to the protocol to keep it in the best shape and adjust their environment, one thing I know for sure is, it's not our problem to worry about.

Nobody can predict that far to the future. Too many variables to consider starting from mining equipment, electricity/energy cost, Bitcoin price, etc. For example, if we found a new way to generate electricity at a low cost, and there is a new device/quantum device that can do calculations at exponential speed to an existing rig, that number you consider insane might be nothing for them. So, people will just keep mining without any care.

Or, the opposite happens. Electricity becomes more expensive, no more cheap rig is found, BTC tank heavy, nobody no longer uses it and so the difficulty is so low that you can mine with CPU again. I think this is unlikely but I won't be surprised if difficulty falls in the future if the profit becomes too small for small-medium mining farms. At the end of the day, the market will correct itself. If mining becomes too difficult difficulty will get lower, when profit increases more people will mine again, and so on.

If you plan to mine BTC right now, consider buying them instead if you can't play the long game or has cheap electricity. It is probably not worth the trouble to set up a rig if profit is your goal. CMIIW.

If Bitcoin mining difficulty is proportional to hashing power ..it will likely become very low considering that competition to mine for block rewards will no longer be necessary when 21million bitcoins have been mined

Hi guys I was wondering wether that how much price would be after 100 years and also what could be mining difficulty of a Bitcoin. Still I was seeing that Bitcoin mining difficulty is all time high of previous records that sits at 35.36 Trillion Hashes and that is too much insane.