Topic: Can current sanctions Ruble inflation stop Russia? (Read 274 times)

I answer:

1. This is a FALSE. It was Ukraine that asked to be accepted into NATO. And it is NATO that has so far denied us entry into this organization. In 2004, "intentions" were signed, but it did not go further. And now NATO says that you can not even talk about joining for 5-10 years.
2. Also a lie. Show source of information? I am even almost 100% sure in advance where the legs of this information stuffing "grow".
3. Also either a lie or deliberately distorted information. If you are interested in the real history, then the concept of joining (under the "long procedure") of Ukraine to the EU was started during the time of President Yushchenko. Those. since 2004. And it was precisely the rejection of the European vector, in 2013, that became the trigger for the Revolution of Dignity, in 2014.

I am a citizen of Ukraine, who observes all this in reality.

Do you have provable arguments against the above?

I believe that the ban on Russia by so many countries would result to a fall in their economy, which is happening , and would possibly continue to affect their economy still in some years to come.

There have been some people who think that Russia will get over this by using Bitcoin, since they have legalized it when the war started, but I am doubting this idea that Bitcoin would help them get over this. Doesn’t seem to me like that is something that is going to possibly happen, because I can’t see how Bitcoin can help them exactly. I know that some people are saying that because they are some Bitcoin fans, but you have to know that Russia is not the first country that have legalized Bitcoin, so it wouldn’t work; things with automatically get better because they legalized Bitcoin.

Sanctions do not stop Putin yet, because he lives in his own world. In recent years, he has directed more than $5 billion towards subversive activities against Ukraine, creating groups that are dissatisfied with the political rule in Ukraine. They lied to him that it was ready and acting, stealing this money. That is why Putin made the stupid decision to attack Ukraine. The people of Ukraine in response to aggression rallied like never before, and over the past 8 years of a hybrid war with Russia, its armed forces have accumulated vast experience in warfare and therefore beat the advancing columns of Russian troops with pinpoint accuracy.
But the Russian population is now heavily supportive of Putin's move to attack Ukraine. This is facilitated by the years of propaganda information disseminated in the media and the downplaying of Russia's military losses in this war.
So far, the only real way to peace is the overthrow of Putin's ruling regime, because Ukrainians have no other choice than to defend their independence and sovereignty. To do this, it is necessary to continue to impose the most stringent international sanctions that will affect all sections of Russian society without exception. It is necessary somehow to awaken this sleeping slave people.

The current sanctions may weaken the Russian economy, but I don't think the impact of these sanctions will have a long-term effect on Russia, especially since we know that Russia is an important country that supplies minerals, gas and oil to Europe, so if they divert supplies to other countries,  such as China or its allied countries, of course, their economy will slowly recover, and I actually see a bigger impact that Europe might get later if they don't lift the existing sanctions, because it is clear they will have difficulty getting gas, oil and raw materials for production industrial  in Europe, 30% of which comes from Russia.

It’s definitely going to be very bad for Russia. Lol, it’s not of surviving a world war with water, vodka and a bread, every country that has been through war has also been through that same situation where people had to survive with the least things that they can find, it’s a normal thing.

But after everything, what’s  next? Their economy loses, their fiat becomes worthless and they wouldn’t be able to purchase a thing with it, people who are living there also turns out to be very poor because of how the fiat has lost value, except those who are wise enough to invest in good assets, if they have access to it. So it’s going to be very bad, and it’s definitely something that they would regret later. You should look at other countries in same situation.

Don't forget that China is not joining the sanctions over Russia.
This may be one wild card that Russia is holding onto.
Just think that China is one huge country and basically, most of our things come from or made from China.
Certainly, Russia will suffer from this war. They can survive but they will have limited engagements in the global trade.
This is if they will not stop this war and continue the aggression to the worst possible scenario.
But don't know if Ukraine will agree with the 4 conditions of Russia to stop temporarily this "demilitarization."

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/
1. Ukraine cease military action
2. Change its constitution to enshrine neutrality
3. Acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory
4, Recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states

No it will never stop Russia for what they are doing because they also have something huge to avenge to other country or shall we say something that can affect the global economy and those sanctions will just trigger Russia to do more action and pursue what they do on Ukraine. The only way what can make Russia change their mind and have peaceful insights toward Ukraine is to negotiate toward what Putin likes and they should stop fighting and sending more troops to taunt more the Russian forces.

All this three point are already happening in Russia, from the first point, inflation have already set in and the citizens are seriously affected and lamenting, their Rubble is down, the sanction placed and swift ban has already cover for a decline in export, and the last phase is the onset of recession to take place finally.

Looking into to Ukraine side of the story and how it has been affected, we can see the how contributions from different parts of the world were given in a form of bitcoin or any other crypto to help fight against the war, purchase millitary supply service and help the citizens with food and security parliatives.

Remember this is war and anything can turnaround by the end of it either in favor of Russia or Ukraine as we only know the begining bit the later end os unpredictable.

There are no outright sactions, at least not from Europe. Two of the largest banks, Grazprom Bank and Sberbank, are largely exempt from the sanctions, because otherwise no more commodities can be paid. The truth also includes that Europe is still importing almost $1 billion worth of gas, oil and coal every day, indirectly helping to finance the war. If Europe were to impose an embargo on these products, it would immediately lead to a massive increase in energy prices, which will probably cause social unrest in Europe.

Isn't water and vodka all the same for Russians?

To answer the question, I think it won't stop Russia because currently Russia is Putin. People are too afraid to do anything and according to polls about 50% of them support the invasion, so they will keep on living without western brands and the social media and they will blame the West for their hardship. Putin won't stop because he's stubborn. Ukraine hurt his ego and he's a small man who wants to be on top every time.

Many Russians see Putin as highly intelligent and able to foresee the full implications of an attack on Ukraine. This is far from being the case, and therefore his plan to seize Ukraine in 3-4 days failed miserably. The Ukrainians successfully repel the attack of the 150,000 Russian army and already over 11,000 Russians have died in Ukraine in 11 days of a large-scale invasion. The Russian occupiers are hungry because they have received only three days of dry rations, they are running out of fuel and increasingly they are abandoning their equipment and fleeing or surrendering. The Ukrainian army is also well rearmed with captured weapons, which are estimated at millions and tens of millions of dollars per unit.
Tough economic sanctions are necessary for Russia and are a logical response for the aggressor country. Already in the first days after their introduction, they have a devastating effect on the Russian economy. And every day this influence will increase. This will not stop Putin, but the people should think about it. If he does not eliminate his king, then let him deservedly live in poverty.

It looked like it was stabilizing however when the markets opened it spiked up to 137USDRUB. And if you consider the fact that one month ago it was 75 USDRUB, you are looking at pretty much almost a 50% loss.

Many citizens are suffering because of this and I doubt many of the Russian rich held much of the Rub. Most of them probably are holding assets, gold, USD, yen and perhaps Bitcoin.

Wonder if it will hit 200 USDRUB anytime soon.

 You can handle the energy shortages one way or another. You can find other providers, you can even end up not putting any type of energy into big energy stuff that are currently luxury and just focus on main needs to drop your need. So forth and so forth, definitely not ideal but not impossible to do neither. At the end of the day without money you can't do anything, so Russia is in a bigger danger right now. Doesn't mean that the world is all sunshines and rainbows for West neither, but it is "not as bad" to say the very least. Thats a big difference to say. Which is why I believe that Russia will do worse in the long run if they do not stop.

In the end this will come down to who can last the longest, hunger and famine in Russia or the energy shortages in the West. The economic sanctions will cause unprecedented hardships in Russia and energy prices in the West is going to skyrocket. You mention that Russia has survived previously on Vodka and bread, but even that can only go so far. A lot of the Russian hard currency has been frozen so it cannot be used by Russia. All being equal, Russia will not be able to sustain the war if the resistance continue and by the looks of things Ukraine is putting up a lot of resistance. At some point something has got to give and one of the pillars that would give in is the Russian economy. Another factor that is going to impact a lot is that VISA, Master Card and American Express ahs stopped operating in Russia, and I am not even referring to SWIFT. This basically means that the population's cards will not work and people will have to stand in lines at the banks to withdraw cash to buy food.

Despite sanctions, Russia still has powerful allies who can support them economically. Besides that, crypto universe if free for all, and russians can always rely on it to protect their money against ruble devaluation.

If those sanctions really work as expected, they are going to work on long run only, what means Putin still has a lot of time to create strategies to avoid the negative consequences of the western economical measures.

And actually, don't you think some people who are blaming and cancelling Russia right now wouldn't trade with them in secret, behind the curtains, if possible?

All that stuff can cripple it, but it can't stop it, of course. That's why sanctions aren't enough, even though a big economic hit isn't nothing. But focusing on sanctions and economy, it can help make the war shorter in a few ways:
- Russia running out of weapons and out of money to buy them and to continue the war
- regular people in Russia taking a huge hit on their budgets as well as on what they can afford (and it's not North Korea, people in Russia are very used to Western goods and services!), and this incites protests, strikes etc, so Russia has to pull its forces out of the war against Ukraine because it needs to deal with the civil war
- Russian businesses and oligarchs taking a hit, and using the influence and resources at their possessions to put internal political pressure to stop the war
They have never faced similar sanctions, actually. Also, there's a good video of another country that had propaganda that it's very strong and can deal with any Western sanctions, and that the West is hit harder by them than this country. That country's name is Soviet Union.

Russia made their decision knowing the consequences already, therefore I expect them to fully understand what they are doing and they know they can survive despite the sanctions. I just know from the post above that Russia at least owns 10% of the total bitcoin circulation in the market, therefore it's a huge advantage for them because their fiat might inflate in value but bitcoin could be one of their life savers.

Sanction from the west is not new for Russia. Their economy survived these type of sanctions before. Russia officials said that they have built a system for these type of situation. They even prepared for SWIFT banning and announce that a system will be triggered if west ban Russia from SWIFT. They knew there will be a clash with the west so they planed everything accordingly.

Puttin is truly decided to invade Ukraine and the current sanctions might worsen the conflict between these two countries. However, sanctions could affect Russia but it will take time because they have independent economy which is strong enough to resist these sanctions. I'm sure that Russia has reserved so much as a preparation for this war.

Na I doubt this is going to take longer than soon because Putin is already taking over the region of Ukraine. 10 years is a decade and the war doesn't have to get to that. The situation of the war may come to an end if they find a spot of settlement in Belarus. NATO countries too are making sure that things come to normal in Ukraine.

It won't stop Russia, it will only make Putin more desperate which means more Ukrainian civilians will die. Sanctions don't target government, they target the people the government are supposed to represent. Russia's economy wasn't in great shape before so he really can't afford to start a war with Ukraine and not finish it, he's too far committed. Sanctions will go on and hurt both the Russian and Western economy while the war lasts a decade plus.

Finance ministers and central bank governors from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States held a virtual meeting with Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said it was about maximum isolation of Russia at all levels and having maximum sanctions capacity, which he said included cryptocurrencies.

We can already see the effect of the western countries on Russia. But considering the fact that Russia supplies almost 30% of Europe's natural gas, it won't be easy to break them. Also you will have to consider that Russia is a big exporter of weapons. So no matter whatever sanctions are imposed on them, Russia will find its way out! May not be quick but definitely possible in long term.

A war is unacceptable in 21st century but there are some open questions,

1. Why NATO is interested in including Ukraine into their alliance where Ukraine doesn't meet the eligibility criteria?
2. Wht Ukraine suddenly started demanding 3 billion dollar as rent to gas pipelines going through their country?
3. Why Ukraine suddenly became interested in becoming a EU member after Russia started invading their country?

We are only seeing the one side of the coin. We need to see the other side as well.

The sanctions won't make weak Russia quickly. I am pretty sure Putin knew very well the sanctions will come when he will begin the war. So I think he already thinks of some alternatives for that though we don't know what is that. Rubble value dropped because of more cash out and panic. Citizens need safety if the situation becomes more worst. That's the reason citizens withdraw Rubble from the Bank and ATM. Russia would create an alternative to SWIFT, he would create new things with his supportive countries or choose cryptocurrency. And I don't think exchanges will ban Russians from using them. They will lose revenue and users will be in fear. Because any country would be in this situation in near future. So banning citizens from trading wouldn't be helpful to prevent Putin. They have the capability of creating such exchanges.

I don't this it can because as far as I know Russia was saving a huge amount of gold to back their own fiat currency so they still have so much savings its look like they are actually waiting for the economic sanctions to happen and they are not surprised about that the sanctions can be effective and stop then when the sanctions are pointing to all the ways the trades but currency they can have trade with many other countries like China which is another strong economic power in the power hand since sanctioning crypto and bitcoin is is kinda impossible to be done they can use these payment systems for their international deals, generally I leave when Putin started he knew the sanctions will happen and he was ready for it before it happens to them.

Okay, I'll be clear!

The only developed area in Russia is a city called Moscow and probably St. Peterburg. Other than that, there is no normal life in Russia and I can confirm that myself after spending some time here. There is a widely accepted opinion that Russians will do everything if you give them vodka and some meal. I have seen myself how some people in Moscow were living by drinking Vodka and eating a very cheap meal called Doshirak.
Yeah, I am serious, I am afraid, the majority of the population can't be stopped by these sanctions if they support their president Putin because they didn't have comfortable life before and beggary is a normal thing for them and even comfort zone if you give them Vodka.

Russia is a western analog of North Korea, with some more freedom and openness.

Russia has an arsenal of nuclear weapons. Do you really think that Putin hasn't thought about that? This man can easily go on nuclear war.
Hey, there are two scenarios for Putin:
1. He stops war and his reputation falls in Russia, which means his career and life will end, Russia will be a very poor country after sanctions and they will no longer be considered as a strong country, no longer in any way.
2. He goes full force, Ukraine & US/EU give up and war ends. But Putin will make everyone do what he and Russia want because the whole world is afraid of them and at the same time whole world can do nothing against them.
3. Russia goes full force, including nuclear war. Ukraine, US and EU go full force and the whole world ends up there.

Sanctions doesn't need years in this case, military, people, everything needs money to keep. Almost whole world stopped trading with them, it's a big shot even in a short time frame. There is a panic in Russia and Rubble is losing value. Russia loses any way! If they stop, everything ends for them and if they don't stop, everything ends for the world.

One of the goals of sanctions is to weaken Russian military, so in the long run it could force Russia to stop this war. But this process could take years, like the Afghan war.

OK, so what are you asking here exactly?  If the question is whether any sanctions imposed by the rest of the globe will deter Russia (Putin specifically, is what it seems like) from its aggression towards Ukraine, I'd have to say no.  I can't imagine Putin wouldn't have realized how unpopular this move of his would be with the UN, and yet he went ahead with his plans anyway.  Someone please argue against that if you think I'm wrong, because I don't fully understand what's going on over there.  Never have.

There are a lot of bitcoiners in Russia, and obviously we've all seen its value shoot up in the past day or two.  I wonder how much the price rise has to do with the conflict, i.e., if Russians or Ukrainians are buying it as a hedge against any currency devaluation that might happen--Russians more so than anyone else, I would think.  Or it could be a coincidence....but I doubt it.

I'm not Russian, but I grew up in the later years of the Cold War and Russians back then were living under a repressive regime and had been for many years.  Your question is valid, but it's also valid for countries like N. Korea.  My response would be that people can and do live with governments that treat them like shit all the time.  I don't know where the breaking point is for Russians, but I am hoping there's some sort of rebellion in the works.  I don't know what else will stop this madness.

The question is.... How long will the Russian people support a government (Putin) ..if their living standard are severely affected by these sanctions. I have already seen mayor social media platforms blocking "Russian" media from using their services, so they are feeling it in their pockets.  

The sanctions are not just targeted at Putin and his government, it is targeted at the citizens and services that support them. You already see people on social media that are getting very hostile against Russian streamers and Russian content. (Those who were able to bypass the restrictions that were placed on Twitter / Facebook / TikTok by the Russian government)

Will it stop Putin?..... No, it will not stop him ...he is a dictator and he will use force to stay in power or he will destroy everything around him.

It will affect Russia as much as it will affect the West and Europe as trading partners. Bitcoin being rushed to be legalized in Russia I think has been in Putin's mind for years, it must be true that they have lots of crypto considering Russians were the first devs such as Vitalik and Sasha.

China has a fine line to walk while they support Russia when it comes to trades, they also don't want anything that will disrupt the trades in all parts of the world.  Both Russia and China might work together using Digital Yuan only. There is no way China will support the sanctions, they know who needs who.

Yes I remember when that report came out and I don’t think it’s actually that high. I think they are over estimating that figure and they didn’t even provide proof that they owned that much. Either way I do think they own large amounts of crypto however.

Before all this started they were pro Bitcoin this and pro Bitcoin that. So most likely they bought it well in advance knowing they would need it in times of sanctions.

Bitcoin rallied almost 20% today and many think it’s because the Russians are selling Rubles to buy Bitcoin. However it’s hard to see if this is true because there is no data to back it up.

With 2% of the global population Russia holds 12-14% of the total cryptocurrency in circulation. This is huge and this means one out of ten bitcoin is owned by Russians. There is continued sanctions from the Western Nations, but Russia is looking for the other way. With the ongoing scenario Russia isn't able to accumulate bitcoin. If this holding goes something above 20% this will turn to be a national security issue. To withstand the situation more ways have been worked out to stop ruble inflation, but looks like nothing gives hand.

Read the whole post because I don't discuss only about paper money!

It seems that almost the whole world decided to isolate itself from Russia while the economics of Russia is connected with the western world and if we keep in mind its GDP and other factors, then the cons will terribly hit them.

It's expected by some economic experts that SWIFT ban will cause:
1. Up to 10% recession.
2. Up to 50% decline in export.
3. Inflation of Rubble.

The Rubble lost more than 30% of it's value in recent days.
Officially Russia’s Ministry of Finance has ordered businesses that trade abroad to sell 80% of their foreign currency earnings and convert them to rubles.
You may notice at streets that some banks and currency exchange services offer very different rates on buy/sell orders. You have to sell X Rubble to buy 1 USD but when you sell 1 USD, you get half of X.

Ukraine also asks crypto exchanges to ban people from the Russian Federation and there is a chance (slight to my mind) that this will happen.

It looks like, Russia will be left majorly with only Rubble. Paper money has no value if no one wants it, doesn't matter how big reserves you have. Once valid and useful money reserves can turn into totally unuseful papers because none country wants to trade with you with it. And locally Russia isn't a strong country, they can't produce computers, smartphones, high-quality technics. They will have to say no to a comfortable life.

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.