Topic: Can LTC's price (ratio) keep up with BTC's? (Read 812 times)

SURE! I'm in this crypto theme after I have suddenly understood there is no way out. This fiat system, the last one, with the interest, debt, vessels, central and independent banks have been developing with the world for about 500 years. Well that was a big period of time, with all the blood sweat and tears and we must, in fact, say "thankyou" to this credit system at least because it managed to grow the prosperity of middle class for several decades. But now it is over. They do not have the way out - reissuing new fiat "new dollars, new pounds" doing nothing at all with two problems:
1) Financial sector redistributes in its favor about 50% in USA (I'm mentioning USA so often only because they are holding the profit from seigniorage and the keys of the scheme) to tell the truth I do not know what are the numbers in Europe. It must be max 10% as it was 50 years ago. It is simply too much! When you are buying anything for fiat you are paying 50% + taxes to the local governments before the making a transaction. People mostly do not know it, but now they can feel it. Will never believe that financial sector will restrain it's appetite by their own will, but who can press them if they own everything? Again - that is not "conspiracy", just all the political movements and persons for several decades were suckled by this system, how one can betray parents?)) Mostly they even cannot think outside the conventional theory.
2) Demand is falling. Mr.Its About Sharing - we can look at the graphs from 1980 and watch the Central bank rates, they were falling from about 18-19% 30 years ago to nearly 0% now. The real crisis begun in 70s (that is from where Roman Club Research etc. were composed). For some decades this fact was covered by the growing credit and also by the new technical wave (internet) which has brought to the market a lot of things with high value of  "oh I wish it" demand. Before this time we had 2 most effective methods for compensation: emission and deepening of division of labor (or exploring new markets). But this time emission is not working, I have enough graphs and numbers showing this. Mostly as I've said it is staying inside the financial sector, something going to the consumer's market in the hidden form of creation of new workplaces. The problem is that in the terms of our technological mode we cannot deepen the division of labor anymore, last time it was after the fall of Communist system and inclusion of China and India markets. Simply printing fiat for a long time is a way to hyper (may be they are planning to do this), but without printing you cannot serve the national debt, growing pension system (we are getting older) and so on.
3) Structure of society in general terms became as more complicated comparing to, for example 70-s, as mining of bitcoins for past 3 years))). Fiat financial structure of Bretton-Woods cannot maintain it.
In fact now I will stop - suddenly understood that it must be very very long post to explain it clearly and easy to understand, too much for lazy man. Will simply answer to your 1 topic. I think that for 2 next years all the crypto market will grow. As more and more people will understand the system of cryptogold and cryptosilver so more Lite will come to the monetary parity to BTC. If the capacity of market will grow quickly I foresee the rush on the cryptos most close to BTC in difficulty although they do not reach monetary parity. Also if ASICs will allow to mine Lite it can overturn all the system, because there is enough lobby to prohibit to push GPU miners from the mountain, so we can have new "people's silver". There is also a possibility that TPTB will shoot the pilot balloon next year, but for me it is very unlikely for a number of reasons.   
   

  In no way I'm telling that we cannot TRY to extrapolate. I was just trying to say that for my mind this game is too hard to predict, because of so many unknown factors. By all means we can and we must think. Well cannot say anything about FBI and so on, but the demand is falling. One of the aspects of the current economical crisis is falling demand: not alarmism, not conspiracy, just compare income and expenditure of households both in USA and Europe and count the difference which was previously compensated by the growing debt(credit). That's all about it. Because of this gap the debts of the governments are growing and now they are growing exponentially (look for example monetary base of the leading fiat issuer), and how you can close the annual gap of 2 trillions without central bank emission with monetary base 800 billions and credit multiplier 17 instead of normal 4-6. Listen, the previous storm of 1929 caused severe deflation and if you look Mr. Bernanke's profile you will see that GD was the subject of his scientific work. What he was doing several years ago - he was compensating following demand by emission. But as time goes by it comes to settle in financial sector and with the change of the structure of extended monetary base it is not causing inflation (from the other side if we shall divide inflation into "household inflation" and "financial sector inflation" we shall see the growth of inflation in the f/s on the stock market). Really that's a very complicated subject (for me at least).  
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In times of economic crisis, how can you argue that a solution (e.g. BTC) will be further ignored? Let's keep the issue simple - People are going to look to protect their money. And as governments start (e.g. U.S.) to ease back on Q.E. the money being held in stock markets, homes, etc. just will not see the same growth. In essence, we are living in a huge Ponzi Scheme and the question we are all wondering is, when will it end, pop, etc.? And should governments go back to the previous Q.E. levels, we have other problems, perhaps bigger, but we are past the point of no return, regardless.

And at this same time, interest is just huge in BTC (and Cryptos is growing). The number of people I meet who have heard of BTC just keeps growing.

Something has got to give.

I particularly like what NMC can do with it's decentralized DNS functionality. This can be overlaid to a whole lot more.

Anyway, what about with regards to the topic at hand?

ps - thanks for the post Raist

NMC is special, as it can be merge mined with bitcoin (i.e. if you find bitcoin block, you can claim NMC block with almost zero computational effort), therefore it has so high hashrate.

....
And for sure we can extrapolate out. What is the alternative, to do nothing? I think of this as a bit of an educated guessing game. The forum abounds with them and we have learned a lot during this process. e.g., Mining difficulty predictions

IAS
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  In no way I'm telling that we cannot TRY to extrapolate. I was just trying to say that for my mind this game is too hard to predict, because of so many unknown factors. By all means we can and we must think. Well cannot say anything about FBI and so on, but the demand is falling. One of the aspects of the current economical crisis is falling demand: not alarmism, not conspiracy, just compare income and expenditure of households both in USA and Europe and count the difference which was previously compensated by the growing debt(credit). That's all about it. Because of this gap the debts of the governments are growing and now they are growing exponentially (look for example monetary base of the leading fiat issuer), and how you can close the annual gap of 2 trillions without central bank emission with monetary base 800 billions and credit multiplier 17 instead of normal 4-6. Listen, the previous storm of 1929 caused severe deflation and if you look Mr. Bernanke's profile you will see that GD was the subject of his scientific work. What he was doing several years ago - he was compensating following demand by emission. But as time goes by it comes to settle in financial sector and with the change of the structure of extended monetary base it is not causing inflation (from the other side if we shall divide inflation into "household inflation" and "financial sector inflation" we shall see the growth of inflation in the f/s on the stock market). Really that's a very complicated subject (for me at least).  

I chose Quark because it is one of the few alts I know and am in. I also hold LTC, NMC and PPC. By far and away (90%) I am in BTC though. I love what one can do with NMC btw.
NMC is SHA256 (as is PPC). Quark breaks the typical SHA256 stranglehold (and ASIC "problem" perhaps).
LTC ASIC miners will shortly be on the way. And with that expect a huge jump in price imo.

The combination of 6 different algorithms is extremely interesting to me.

I also chose Quark because of it's mostly mined. As you can see from my initial post, this really poses a different situation, valuation wise, going forward (relative to BTC and LTC).

Lastly, I chose Quark because it is being "advertised" by Max Keiser and Bill Still. Rightly or wrongly, that is getting the name out there. Also mentioned on the Corbett Report. There seems to be quite a bit that has happened with development, perhaps related to this.

IAS

Why did you choose Quark and not one of the other altcoins like WDC or NMC?

Why would you think demand is dropping? By all accounts, data, etc. it is increasing in both the USA and Europe.

The Market Cap of the Crypos, even when extrapolated out, are in no way, shape or form, even years away, from paying off national debts. Interesting point though, considering the FBI has quite a few BTC's, and probably more on the way.

Todays price is economic as it is being driven in large part by speculation. But we can see that services are being developed (and LOTS of money is flowing in) and the non speculative nature, economically speaking, is just getting started.

And for sure we can extrapolate out. What is the alternative, to do nothing? I think of this as a bit of an educated guessing game. The forum abounds with them and we have learned a lot during this process. e.g., Mining difficulty predictions

IAS

I'm not saying that will happen. But I am pointing out that that might be likely, due to the increased supply relative to Bitcoin. If demand doesn't change, LTC can't keep the same price ratio with BTC.
But, people who think they "missed the boat" on BTC, might just see the price of LTC and not consider the supply, and just rush in. After all, look at the other cryptos.

Another consideration, that I came upon by reading the Quark thread, is that all the SHA256 ASIC's out there, that are becoming less and less profitable, are probably, at least in part, going to be
pointed at other SHA256 coins. And with those coins, we will probably see LTC, BTC, Quarks, etc. purchased. This rush to alts imo, is JUST STARTING.

Something else to consider, in the next 2-6 months or so, we are going to see a huge rush of LTC ASIC's enter the market.
This, at least with BTC, was when the money was made. So, even though I'm trying to point to LTC's "potential problem" I'm also thinking it is poised to explode up,
as well as crazy resale value with LTC ASIC mining rigs.

IAS

I would love to know. I hold a few Quarks and like the experiment that it is (as I allude to above.)
But hold the same questions. It is hard to translate it's network strength linearly, I think.
Anyone?

For me it is more interesting if cryptos (the most strong of them at least) can help with compensation of dropping down demand in both USA and Europe. That's about 5 trillion annually. Can it be some sort of hidden emission with the financial system reconstruction together. Also it can be a nice try for USA to pay off the national debt in fiat. Too many questions bro. Relative value of big 3 depends on how much long term money will go into crypto's capitalization. Today's price is non-economic, may be political, may be just speculative but that is not economy in macro terms. I mean that I would not building dates from today's point.   

So are you trying to say that due to Litecoin's fast supply growth in the coming years, you're expecting Litecoin's price growth to be much slower from now onwards and the ratio won't be able to keep up?

How many GPUs does Quark have defending it?

Or can it not be defended with GPUs at all?

-MarkM-

I started this examination while looking at other Cryptos (Quark in particular) as BTC and LTC are #1 and #2. And the price "appreciation" of LTC relative to it's increasing supply became concerning.

Market Cap, ratios and number of coins:
BTC has roughly 12 million coins so far with a market cap of around $9 Billion. (Todays price of $764) Prices take from coinmarketcap.com
LTC has roughly 24 million coins so far with a market cap of around $600 Million. (This is 1/15th the size of BTC) Todays price of $24.76
QRK has roughly 247 million coins so far with a market cap or around $27 Million. (This is 1/321 the size of BTC. 1/21 the size of LTC.) Todays price of .11

Over the next 3 yrs, BTC will create 1.3 million coins each year, and then for the next 4 years will create 657k new coins per year. At the end of 2019 it should have around 18.5 million coins.
Over the next 2 yrs, LTC will create 10.5 million coins each year, and then 5.26 million coins each year for the next 4 years, then 1.3 million coins the next year, so at the end of 2019, should have 66.9 million coins.
Over the next 6 yrs, Quark will create roughly 6 million more coins. So, that should put us at around 253 million coins at the end of 2019, or there a bouts.
* - I didn't pick 2019 for any particular reason. I just went out 6 years from now. Play with this if you have any reasoning.

At around the end of 2019 we have this many coins and a Market cap (with todays price just for comparisons sake, feel free to play around here.):
BTC 18.5 million coins. $14 Billion
LTC 66.9 million coins. $1.7 Billion (1/8 the price of BTC)
QRK 253 million coins. $27.9 Million (1/500th price of BTC, 1/61 price of LTC)

Notice how much LTC jumps in value (3X it's current value, 1/8 the price of BTC - up from 1/15th) as it is growing so quickly in supply. Now perhaps this just means the price of BTC needs to appreciate more than that of LTC, hence we use the ratio quite often. Can this keep up?
Comparatively QRK "depreciates" as not many more coins are coming online relative to it's initial amount and also relative to the ratio compare to the other 2 coins. So, all other things being equal, QRK should appreciate quite a bit.
One can clearly see the aspect of having a coin mostly mined already really changes the equation regarding evaluation is concerned. It's growth model is very different. How do we interpret this?

Network Strength:
BTC's Network is 11.5 Million GH/s Blockchain.info
LTC's Network is 89 GH/s (Scrypt, We can't compare these numbers directly)
QRK's Network is 678 GH/s (Again, not sure how to compare these numbers, but even more complicated here) Taken from Vircurex's website
(There are other coins with HUGE hash rates on SHA256 e.g. - NMC 8 million, IXC and DEV 4+ million)
Can anyone add something regarding this? I really would like to get an idea of how strong QRK's network is, this is a telling consideration (eventually anyway).