Topic: Can Machine Learning truly predict Bitcoin's price? (Read 548 times)

Price predictions are a myth in my perspective and it all boils down how to probability of bitcoin price reaching that particular price.
Machine learning and AI are just technologies which humans have developed and if they can predict bitcoin price then humans can too.
But that isn't the case. We haven't seen any person claiming 100% accuracy while predicting prices and it's all just a speculation.
If there were such ML and AI bots who could predict prices then everyone would be following it and getting rich.

I've never used a robot to trade, the base is a pretty expensive price for me. It seems that the more sophisticated the technology then the price of robots for trading will also be more expensive. Any robot I know doesn't have 100% accuracy. Sometimes they also make mistakes, because robots are human creations. In addition, the way of setting is also influential, for people who do not know then it looks troublesome.

One of the most popular crypto trading bots is the Cryptohopper bot, which trades based on technical indicators and market sentiment. This bot is free for up to five trading pairs at a time, with paid plans available for access to other markets and up to 50 active pairs at once.

Data collection is never a waste of time or money. Like the Ambanis have said, "Data is the new oil"

An outlier value does not splash away the data which has been collected. The power of statistics is tested here but this is not the first time you are getting outlier values, and that is why research uses statistics on a large scale.

Let us look at this from our own  understanding of cryptocurrency generally, we actually known from the origin of cryptocurrency and more especially bitcoin that no machine at this era that can predict the actual price of bitcoin perfectly and i don't believe its in existence, the price of bitcoin is been determined from the market structure of demands and supply of cryptocurrency, the commodity is what we consider first from cryptosphere, and i believe vividly that machine can't predict the price of bitcoin but it only trade a coin.

Now many sophisticated machines have sprung up, because technology has developed very rapidly. So I believe machines can predict the price of
Bitcoin, but the problem is that the prediction results can't be 100% accurate. Because it is impossible with volatile Bitcoin price movements there is
a machine that can accurately predict Bitcoin prices. If there was such a machine maybe its creator would not have sold it to anyone else and would
have used it himself. But it is impossible for a machine to predict 100% accurately, because as you said it is not only studying the history of Bitcoin
price movements to be able to predict Bitcoin prices. There are other factors that influence it, moreover all human creations must have limitations.
That's why I never 100% trust trading bots, because it's not easy to predict Bitcoin prices.

^ Definitely right, there is no need for a machine to predict the market price.
With a combination of technical and fundamental analysis you have a preference to predict the market, probably don't have an exact result but I think that is not far. I don't believe in the machine algorithm because they usually have mistakes and the fundamentals sometimes where it is silently will strike without any tools to predict. Doing your own research will probably be a good idea and it is totally free.

The machine can make a Bitcoin price prediction, but not sure how good the accuracy of its prediction is. I mean even an expert is difficult to predict with good accuracy, how can a machine do a better prediction? We must remember that making a price prediction isn't based on the price chart history only, we must learn how the current news about Bitcoin and crypto market. A machine must have some limitations. It may be programmed to predict the next price based on the chart history only, while Bitcoin price doesn't always repeat the same scenario in the past. Sometimes price change is unpredictable and depends on the current news/issues in crypto market. So, I doubt if a machine can predict Bitcoin price properly.

It is true that it is not something easy to do as the data needs to be accurate in order to produce a model that can predict what the market will do in a day to day basis, but it is also not something as impossible as it may seem at first sight.

So at the end whether a person can implement something like this will depend entirely on their abilities when it comes to this particular branch of artificial intelligence and whether or not their expectations of the results they can get are realistic enough.

The robot predicts the price of the coin through a period of analysis to predict whether the price will rise or fall. But I can't fully believe the robot's predictions. The best way is to learn to analyze the market by yourself, and it is better to analyze the price of coins based on the heat of the market. The robot cannot predict what the giant whale will move. So it's better to rely on yourself.

actually.. with enough data it does become easier,
for instance if you have access to an exchanges user database+their balances+their order history. you can see which users just buy the dips. which users FOMO(buy the hype). which users DCA(just buy at X day of month no matter the price)
you can the group people of the 3 trade types. total their combined holdings per group. and see how much combined yield/power over the market they hold in each category to see how much the market can move by when each category scenario triggers.

EG if you know, for instance that the 25th of the month is a high total yield day for the DCA group. then thats more buyers buying on the 25th than other days so expect more buy pressure on the 25th

patterns can be found... IF you have the data.

First off AI that exists today isn’t really that amazing compared to what we believe and almost assuredly know what Artificial Intelligence will be one day. It’s not self learning which is what future AI will be mind bogglingly able to do (and scary for that matter). But it’s forever going to be impossible to predict because you simply can’t read peoples minds, you don’t know when they plan to buy or sell (outside of stuff like futures and options).

Some misleading responses here.

I've worked with machine learning for stocks prices, which by all means are far more consistent with the general trends than Bitcoin prices. I used Colab with Adam as an optimizer for the weighted moving average of the stock. Machine learning CANNOT accurately predict the prices of the stocks, solely because there are a magnitude of factors that could affect the market movement. Specifically, in my case, Covid-19 skewed the data significantly and resulted in up to 40% lower predicted prices vs actual. It would work if the stocks follows the typical market cycle, which it doesn't.

Now, to Bitcoin, it is even worse. The problem is that Bitcoin doesn't follow any trends, it is affected by various factors which are often unpredictable (govt regulations, stocks market). If you were to plug in the data for 2010 to 2019, you would have a huge deviation as compared to the actual prices.

Someone's predictions are not always correct, let alone using tutorials such as youtube, algorithms and sophisticated technological systems. Now the price in the market can fluctuate so it is difficult for us to predict the market price will go up or will go down, besides that the big whale also plays a role with the current market price.
I myself can't predict market prices using an algorithmic system and so far I can only use the theory of holding in the long term so that I can get big profits.

I was thinking about how it works as I'm not convinced of its effectiveness knowing how volatile is the market. Yes, of course, it was going to believe that it could give some predictions as it was used to be but the problem is that if that was close to it. If that going to happen, then people would love to try it. For now, as it wasn't proven yet that it really works great, that is something in question and possibly people will just forget such an invention but rather use their own TA.

the fact that there are so many factors in play in btc market, even if we say AI already integrated those factors, still, there will be other factors that may possibly influence the market. it would be hard for them to consider all those factors and know the contribution in the market. if in case, someone will come up with such algo (at least near to reality), do you think he will share it to the public? i don't think so. he will utilise it as long as he in profit and just disclose when his algo is not working anymore. but up until now, i don't think someone already devised such algo

Goodluck with ML, one splash of a whale and its gone

Maybe LM and AI can create small chances in its first uses but in the long run, it will only create false predictions and whoever believes on it might only see himself losing in the end. Because i believe that the crypto market is naturally unpredictable and that bitcoin is very volatile so there is no way that any certain thing will be able to predict the price correctly. And seeing that bitcoin and altcoins' prices can still be manipulated by big whales, and any sudden positive or negative events will affect the whole crypto market. For now, i believe its more on the market sentiments that create the price of bitcoin and altcoins.

In my understanding, science has evolved only up to the level of machine learning and artificial intelligence is still not existing for all of us; coming back to the capability about machine learning to predict the bitcoin prices; I guess machine learning is not having big differences from what we do use for trading in the name of technical analysis. If machine learning is programmed in a versatile way then it may become capable of predicting the market up to some extend.

So, we cannot completely ignore the potential of machine learning process about predicting the future of bitcoin markets as machine learning must be an enhanced version of technical analysis in somehow automated way.

that can be fixed. in just a couple days.
make a altcoin with 50trillion coins. sell just 0.001 of a coin for $1.
making the altcoins market cap 50quadrillion dollars

all for the price of $1 sell

what you then learn is that market caps are a meaningless statistic to look at
what you learn is stock market cap is a meaningless number

stock prices are not based on some large pool of dollars held to match every share/stock.. its based on the current price of an order (of any % of a stock) and this price is then with no real dollar involvement multiplied by how many stock/shares there are

crypto market caps have no dollar reserve either. its just based on the current price of the last order(even if its decimal) and multiply that price by the coins in circulation.

so you can change the market cap of bitcoin by large amounts of $measure. without having to see any large amount of dollar spent

As you have mentioned the crypto market cap is way smaller compared to the stock exchanges of even developing nations and hence has a whole lot of whale manipulation,even sound technical and fundamental analysis are thrown out of the window when the whales enter the picture,hence any ML AI algorithm would have a much greater chance at predicting stock indices over crypto in general.
Having said this i still believe that even if in the future we get an insane over the top algorithm developed if it gets popularised too much or a large capital is invested based on the algos opinions then it would create a paradoxical situation,i.e. lets say you are a wealthy investor and your algorithms prediction is a price increase ,if you invest a huge amount now you are the one who is actually being a catalyst for this growth.
But right now there is no algorithm which even has decent accuracy in predicting prices of stable assets let alone cryptocurrencies.

There will never be a 100% in prediction mate, even how good and accurate yet since it is Prediction this will never come perfectly , instead i believe that this will only give hints and opportunity to be in specific coin but not to come in permanent situation.
so Yes it can predict the price roughly and not completely .,
and also has some sort of manipulation inside.

This is like an EA in trading, where they are using a bot, but the only problem is that it is a program. My opinion with this is that this AI was also programmed to check the history. This is mostly the strategy with this and also the probability that it would happen again. Also, the candle patterns and technical analysis that a trader would use and calculate the probability that it would happen, but still it is not 100% that would predict the price.

Indeed, a waste of money and time. And there is no way to predict the future of Bitcoin and I think, we've done with our own market analysis and TA which I think we don't need such machine.
I don't know how the invention is made and how it proves that it predicts the right price. We keep thinking about the volatility of the market which makes these predictions and any form of predictions will never be perfect or even too close to it.

I believe AI - machine learning (deep learning) can possible to predict bitcoin price
but don't use time series forecasting
may be customize model training by price habits or investor habits can possible success to predict
but can do only very large size model development (like GPT-3), for small develop and simple develop can not predict bitcoin

well, how can they predict that exactly, whereas bitcoin or crypto trading is a trade about demand and need. well, actually, looking at it from youtube, I can't believe it 100%, moreover it's a machine. even bots that are designed to have a fairly accurate prediction system can't even predict bitcoin price movements. maybe it can give you speculation about from the information obtained, but I'm not sure that it's 100% true.

yes this is only for rough pricing speculating but not that accuracy so best not to expect big on this instead do your own diligence and research , observe the movement and not to deal with huge profit .
best to just take small percentage but accurate than seeking for 3 digits income.
Funny but true , this may sounds joke but if we look deeper this cannot be happen as human knows more than robot lol.

Robot prediction is to give a rough analysis based on the price trend, but it cannot predict what accidents will happen. It may be more convenient to use robots in stablecoins. Do not use robots for hype coins. The robot and our artificial analysis should be the same.

i think this does not totally predicting 100% but at least this can help collecting data to make analyzation and maybe get the closer predictions.

and besides never believe in complete prediction because this is really impossible to happen.

News are human created sometimes specially in a volatile market like crypto, whales loves to create News to shake the market and let the weak scares and sold their coins.
wrong traders will not lose more often if they will not become greedy and stupid to seek for so much income .

Prediction algorithms, ML and AI are currently the talk of the century. It is because of certain tech companies working on such projects that every social media platform ends up creating a buzz around it filled with users who dont even have any sort of tech background to talk about it.

Videos on YT get recommended by what people watch in your demographic and they should not be taken as all real or an interpretation of what is being done.

Heck if it was even real, then the market for such software would have gone up in huge demand for every trader would have wanted it. But that is not the case. Buzzwords should always be avoided and this is the bad effect when we give them unwanted attention.

The only thing that one needs to remember when thinking about prediction - they are based on previous chart data and recent news trends. But how the market may move depends on a lot of different reasons very much unknown to the common people. Hence such predictions can only be 50-50 correct, just like any other new analyst or self-proclaimed "financial advisor". I would rather do my own research on pen and paper.

I think supporting that Whale manipulation is what my stand here and so the AI and ML is not that accurate if someone can move the market here and there.

how can this be accurate when you know that 10-20 persons together can make this market well manipulated .
There is no such thing as 100% accurate in this, Bitcoin has limited  stocks and so as the control in value.

all those factors. are just a question of data.
EG if the AI had access to an exchanges user database, it can then easily associate the users trading patterns with when media drama occur.
EG flag the users that trade when there is media hype
it can then total up the exchange balance of those flagged users. to know how much total value could hit the order books when media drama occur. thus gauge how much volume trade could occur in a media drama hour, day, week

the issue is not pattern recognition or too many factors. computers can sift through billions of variables a second.
the real issue is the access to the data.

such data does exist. exchanges have it. their users database and their users order history..
but this is not publicly accessible data easy to retrieve outside the exchange.

that the crux of the issue.. not the pattern recognition. but the data access to then use in the pattern recognition

I doubt that machine learning is capable of predicting the price of Bitcoin. There are market-makers that guide the price, also there are different news that can't be predicted and taken into consideration, so there are too much factors that influence the price. If this machine uses trading patterns, I don't think that it will always guess the price as according to statistics, traders lose more often than earn.

AI if it had all the possible data to analyse as explained in my last post, could kinda predict price movements.
but here is the thing

if several bots all had the same data, and got triggered all when the same pattern appeared. guess what. those bots would then react and cause the pattern to break because the trigger caused a different action(due to the bots). this then causes a new variable to then try to predict.

EG if you knew everyday that a fruit stall owner sold 10 bananas an hour for 10 hours. and you then done something based on this info. such as buy up all his 100 banana's at dawn to benefit you, so that you could sell them for a few cents more during the day.
the following day. the fruit stall owner would then change his plans. by bringing 200 banana's to market, or reducing his price to compete against you. or many other things

you cant then rely on your 100 banana data from yesterday to help you tomorrow.

other examples are. if a btc market patten triggered to suggest a dip. and several bots then went on a buy spree. the suggested dip wont happen because the bots buying spree caused the price not to drop. this pattern broke.

its like pump and dump groups. without knowing that a prise rise spike was going to happen. you can cause one by chanting to enough believers that one would happen. get them to go on a buying spree and its then actually them that cause the spike due to your chanting.. thus a self fulfilling prophecy. without the suggestive chanting. the spike would not have happened.

Well, this perhaps how will work those automated trading bots or they say machine learning that powered by AI which if you will analyze from the word AI ^{[Articificial Intelenge]} which is man-made. If I am the owner of that machine learning I will not even sell into the market because every perhaps becomes a millionaire in crypto. So, --it is impossible that there is a tool that can predict the market price. Perhaps they can do execute buy and sell on your behalf but not totally tell about the exact price.

if we believe that machine learning can accurately predict up to 100% the price of bitcoin then those who buy bitcoin are bots

machine learning algorithms are man-made and man-made nothing is perfect so what is discussed on youtube is just a speculation, it will never happen

Bitcoin price moves very volatile and it is caused by various factors, such as manipulation of whales, or there is a major event such as a pandemic
that causes the price of Bitcoin to move unexpectedly. So it is very difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin accurately. Therefore I doubt there is
a machine that can accurately predict the price of Bitcoin, if there was a machine that could accurately predict the price of Bitcoin, there must be
a lot of rich people popping up. Not only are the creators of these machines rich, but the users of these machines can become rich as well.
The most effective way of predicting the price of Bitcoin is do our own research and analysis.

They can evaluate the market situation in multiple exchanges and then have an idea about the market by studying and analyzing the buy and sell wall of major exchanges. Other than that it is hard to predict the price with any machine learning and no one can predict exactly what will happen in the market and if someone finds that magic solution, he will be a billionaire  .

Prediction of Bitcoin price with Machine Learning and artificial intelligence like using some algorithm is almost impossible. Whale manipulation is so obvious to the extent I don't bother myself with technical analysis anymore, I just focus on fundamental analysis because when it comes to bitcoin price prediction fundamental analysis overrides technical analysis.

hi, i know right now there are many people that learn about machine learning, it will help people in the many ways, it can predict, give as suggestion, and anything else. but for predict bitcoin price, i think it will possible and not possible. the possible way because machine learning are learning from history, its mean they can predict price from the pattern of history chart.
and the not possible way because, the machine learning can't learn about the market sentiment, news, and the hype right now

so if you ask about predict bitcoin price with machine learning, my answer, yes it can!

Hmm this is an interesting concept especially when you consider the computation of the algorithms which look for the most probable move but I doubt that it may be able to predict accurately the price of BTC.

Remember that the price of cryptocurrencies derive from several external and internal factors that can be outside the control of anyone. Even if machines take it into consideration, there will always be that +/- variable which can either make or break one's investment.

It can predict the price, that's for sure! We've done it and I'll share some screenshots tomorrow. We have trained a model using the past six months' hourly close candles, which is capable of predicting the next candle close. our work is not done yet.  

I agree that it's impossible to predict the price movements, but not due to whale manipulations. Who could've thought in February 2020, when the price was sitting comfortably at around $9k, that it will drop to $5k in the middle of next month due to the WHO announcing the pandemic? No machine learning could have taken into account this event from the world of medicine to predict the drop of the price because there are too many factors if we consider things like it. Bitcoin's price depends heavily on what's going on in the world. Not directly, of course, but due to all sorts of articles that appear online when this or that country introduces a restrictive bill, Musk tweets something positive or negative or something like a once-in-a-century pandemic hits the world.

Never heard like this before and i doubt there will be a machine programmed to predict bitcoin price with 100% accuracy and if there is then i think the creators of these machine will be so rich because they can able to predict further movements of bitcoin price however bitcoin price is unpredictable and you can predict use your own skill or using stuffs but the results will depend on the market itself

It's hard to believe such a thing exist you know. If people knew it is happening then Bitcoin trust will downfall, the price too. Who would ever bet on a game which they already know they will lose anyways. People with influence will be having those kind of information, the rich and powerful which will take advantage of the technology and in the end the mass get's poorer even more.

At least I am not convinced. It's just nonsense to believe that any machine or AI could predict Bitcoin price. Ask yourself who has been making all of this machine and artificial intelligence? Aren't they human? These all will work according to the program you install. AI or machines could calculate faster than you and me based on Algorithms. So if the programmer could take real-time decisions then how an AI could take. The price of Bitcoin depends on many things, not only a single fact. So it's impossible to predict Bitcoin price by AI or machine. Perhaps sometimes would be machine or near-miss but that's miracles, not a perfect prediction. Don't believe always what YouTubers saying, they about to earn money, they don't care about you really.

Hate to use a movie quote but:

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."
- Agent K

That is why machine learning for trading will always fail, people can panic and be irrational at the smallest thing that is not at all relevant to the price of BTC, or anything else for that matter.
Big brokerage houses have spent tons of money working on it and although they do work somewhat they have also had some spectacular failures. That will not change. Over time it will get better and computers get faster and faster the same way they have over decades, but a group of people / investors panicking over something or getting excited and buying over something else. Nope, never going to happen.

-Dave

There's a lot of factors that concerns the price of Bitcoin and most of them are unpredictable and sudden things. Predicting the precise price of Bitcoin would very well mean that AI can predict our future. I know those youtube videos did research on the topic but most of them are theoretical and not practical.

Basically, it's impossible to predict the price of Bitcoin even if AI/ML have so much data.

I've watched it too. in my opinion not all videos on youtube provide correct and valid information. very easy to know the video is true or not. Are those who make videos very rich now with this AI and algorithm to predict bitcoin price?

This is not practically possible to determine the bitcoin prices with Artificial intelligence. The AI works well when you have the old data and there is the chance that same pattern may be repeated in the future which is not possible when it comes to bitcoin price.
We may input different patterns and predict the outcome but more often the trading patterns fail to execute in trading because of whales' manipulation.

if it's true and already existing for sure most people will provide immediately such bots to get the real direction of the prices in the market and surely no one will ignore on it! But you know when it comes internet especially youtube probably we can't really say easily if all of what they're saying is totally legit wherein since most of the influencer nowadays were making videos just to have a content on their channel..for me in my personal opinion it's hard to believe because if it's already existing maybe it's now popular and featured in some legitimate sites or news.. Just saying..

Unfortunately, the era for AI predicts bitcoin price volatility is not coming yet but it can happen in the future, especially if the technology is better than today. The AI can calculate what will happen with the price but still, it is hard to get a 100% possibility that the AI can predict with the right because the crypto market is something that is out of our expectations. The AI can gather all sources easily if the machine has the highest internet connection so AI can predict what will happen later and give a solution to us. But we need to wait for that era to come.

Any forecasting of prices in the cryptocurrency market is one of the likely events that may occur in the future. The price of a cryptocurrency can be influenced by the action of even one person who can put it up for sale or buy a large batch of cryptocurrency. Therefore, I do not think that any price forecasting can predict price movements in this market with any certainty.
For example, how many forecasts were there about the expected rise in prices at the end of this year. And all of them were not confirmed.

If it was possible to predict all financial markets by using algorithms,then any trader in the world would be using those algorithms and profiting and no one would be losing money from trading.This is ridiculous because trading on the financial markets is a zero sum game and the profit of one is the loss of another.
There are factors on the financial markets that cannot be predicted by any trading bot,AI or algorithm,like FUD news for instance.Can some AI bot read all FUD news and decide which ones are going to move the cryptocurrency prices and which ones are fake FUD?AI bots aren't that intelligent,aren't they.

Until now I have not found a machine that can predict the price of Bitcoin 100% accurately, what the machine predicts the results are not so far from
the prediction results that I do. So I don't need a machine to predict Bitcoin prices, because I just do my own research and analysis. But for people who
don't have time to monitor the market or don't have good analytical skills, there is nothing wrong with using the help of machines to predict the price of
Bitcoin. But it must be remembered not to rely too much on machines to predict Bitcoin prices, it will not make our analytical skills develop. We still have
to learn how to analyze correctly.

Exactly, There are many other things or news that can suddenly make the market move in the opposite direction and this has constantly happened in the market as we have witnessed in the past and I don't think that AIs and ML can detect that information before they happen. If the market wasn't manipulated sometimes maybe this is possible.

Predict bitcoin with AI? Hmm Interesting, and if it proves to be possible then I don't think bitcoin will be as popular as it is now because of the lack of trust of bitcoin users in the purity of fluctuations in the market.
If indeed AI can predict the price of bitcoin then how? While there are many algorithms related to bitcoin that cannot be calculated mathematically. For example political conditions, natural disasters, tragedies etc.

The fact that something like this could exist today will only be an indication that it enters to compete with other predictions based on traditional data because what would make it effective is not that you get the price right once, if not That it does it at the exact frequency at each moment and each instant, if that machine is capable of doing that, we would be in the presence of a quantum machine or describe it however you want, but such a thing is not possible today in the capacity to be exact.

The predictions in the financial markets are not defined only in the historical result or the comparative of the existing data, the "future" variable that depends on the individuals-companies that invest or withdraw money from the bitcoin environment is unpredictable, then although that unpredictable data can correct it at certain times based on the existing data, it has a degree of entropy so difficult to calculate that the AI not ​​could be close most of the time. In consecuense it would never be able to accurately predict the price with the corresponding continuity.

AI's problem is not about churning through data to find patterns.. its problem is the source of that data and amount of data it can get to churn through
if its not got much data to rely on, its not going to be very good at finding patterns

current bitcoin price is not about the ~19mill coins in circulation
its not about the number of coins deposited on exchanges. or the fiat deposited, just sat as unused balance.
its about the number of coins on a market order book, aswell as the amount of fiat on a market order book

but if you dont know how much coin/fiat is deposited ready to make an order along with the numbers of coin/fiat already on the market order book. then it becomes harder to 'predict' whats available to change in the near future.

EG if you cant access each exchanges bank deposit totals and coin store totals. you cant work out if there is masses of dollar waiting to order a small amount of coin on offer. or the opposite.

so although the market order book of most exchanges is public. and looking at the volume of each side can reveal something. without the extra data of what balance the exchanges is holding in total off the order book, predicting the next movement in direction cant be worked out to any accuracy

but with data about unused balances not yet on orderbook. it can help make predictions more accurate.

with more data like exchange customer online behaviour. EG time between depositing to making an order. how often they order. can help add more to the picture.. as it helps get more finer detail on demand timing
but this data has to be available to then be able to be used by AI

AI is only as good as the data it has available to sort through

If this is about truly 100% true, exactly no. If it is true exactly, there may be not really high diffefence of the rate.
Additionally, prediction is a prediction in which it may happen in exact time, in some time, or never also happen.
But at least commonly the tool will help us to predict the quite true rate at certain time based on the resistant, time framework, and also other indicators. So it will not be far away from what rate we have predicted.

It's useless and it could be wasting your time and money, there's no such way to predict the future price of Bitcoin.
But one thing all we know is that Bitcoin price was always ended at a high price.  Even though this machine has an AI algorithm system that can able to predict but I think it isn't accurate.

What kind of machine it is?
If so, there could be a chance it will use in an automated trading bot, and this may be the perfect tool in trading.  But yes, for sure the performance doesn't have a guarantee that it has an accurate result.

These machines are programmed to make predictions, then it's possible they could make it but the question is if that is realistic? I don't think how reliable it was, we know these machines are not too good compared to the human brain and we know that nobody was able to predict the right/exact price of Bitcoin, so how much more for these machines?
Or maybe, we need to buy and use one of these AI/machine learning in order to evaluate its performance. This is gonna be the best solution and to prove something, I think.

I think there are some things we need to take into account, when someone does technical analysis that person can have a chance to predict the price but it only works if it's a short amount of time like a 4h or daily or week chart; but it is very difficult to predict with precision, if there are people who do technical analysis then it is not possible to have Machine Learning that does this service better, Has anyone seen any Machine Learning in action doing price forecast?

But watching what you don't know from video and make a frequent practice on them can equally make someone perfect at some instances, because i a friend of mine doesn't know what is trading in the year 2015, but from the year 2017 he started using internet to inquire for online trading tutorial, only one year practice of this trading through YouTube videos it's now a master in trading industrial, i think i refute such concept that watching a YouTube video will not make someone perfect. Even manual lectures too can't make someone perfect, the only thing that's involve is concentration.

I don't believe the price of bitcoin can be known for sure by only using machine learning and AI because changes in bitcoin prices are purely based on supply and demand made by humans in the market. machine learning and AI can only predict bitcoin prices based on market habits and the accuracy is not that great.

Machine learning is not exactly easily to implement - you need high quality data and you need to configure the network in just the right way so that it would generate the best model, but it would be in this situation mostly just guessing on how to do this. And of course neural network can't get 100% accuracy, it probably can't even do 60% accuracy, but anything over 50% is a success, because it means that profit can be generated over a long period of time.

But this doesn't mean that you should go buy one of those Bitcoin trading bots, most of them are likely just scams, because if someone had a successful bot, they would just use it themselves, instead of sharing it with others and reducing its performance.

And another weakness of machine learning is that it can't react to real life events. Like how Bitcoin crashes or pumps when certain big news happen (China ban, Tesla buy, etc.).

They can.

But the question is if they're going to be that accurate with that prediction? IIRC, I've read something like this before about predicting the future price of bitcoin. The same thing, they did predict but they're not just as accurate as they are.

There are unprecedented things that would come to the market and they can't predict that. So, if it's just about predicting the price, that's easy.

And to tell you, not every youtuber is a good content creator to watch.

Understand that, not every video you see on Youtube that you have to believe the information Youtubers share because Youtubers make hype based videos for their own greedy purpose.
Having said that, there's a chance that machine learning will predict the price of  Bitcoin but that doesn't mean the price it predicted is 100% sure because we are dealing with a volatile market and no one or thing can predict an accurate result of the market price.

Some machines work, while some do not.

Eventually in the long run, as you feed more information on the machine, it will only give you the answer based on that information, and I don't it would precisely predict the future movement because if it will, then probably trading will be so easy and making money is not a problem. I suggest using it only as one of the references, still, look for more current news and information as they likely are a more reliable basis for predicting the market movement.

What kind of machine?
There were actually applications or program created to detect buying and selling of crypto which is illustrated through a chart to predict the next Bitcoin price, but that's the only thing that can make the closest possible price prediction.
There are no other thing that can actually predict Bitcoin price without detecting the buy and sell volume of such asset.
 
Unless that machine you're talking about is a time machine.
Well, that can accurately predict Bitcoin price lol.

Yeah, of course, however, you can expect that it will give consistent results as crypto by nature is very unpredictable. Machines do base their prediction on past movements and trends, but how about the news which is a major reason why the market moves? I mean the latest rumors, and the FUD, a machine could not detect that.

The first aspect to determine is what is the event to predict. Obviously it’s price here, put that is tied to a given timeframe. The algorithm therefore needs to aim at predicting BTC price in that given timeframe (i.e. price in the next 5 minutes, next hour, next week, next day, and so forth). Each of these timeframes constitutes a different objective, and it represents the starting point to derive a set of algorithms that try to predict the value of BTC in that timeframe.

Price depends on many factors. The simplest set of algorithms will work with historical price data; the more granular the better. If there is available information on trading volumes, and order books, all the better. That should be suffice to do something similar to TA. Nevertheless, there are many more elements that conceptually should be thrown-in to the bundle in order to be processed as data inputs. The basis is having that data tabulated in a precise and timely manner in a historical set of data.

We often perceive that market is very much influence by fundamentals; or rather, fundamentals act as catalysts that are then exploited by those who can in the direction that they will (or not …). On top of that there are plenty of minor news that play their role, psychology of numbers, sentiment, fomo, fud, derived products that may trigger a BTC price sway, or are triggered themselves in price and then they trigger BTC price, BTC tenant composition and weight (i.e. whales, institutions, us), and so forth. These factors are very difficult to factor in to the models in their accurate and precise measure. There’s probably a fair share of NLP related in the process of attempting to ponder them into the prediction.

Can all the above be taken into account into a model? To a certain degree for sure, but precision in the output (again, for a given timeframe) requires the inputs to be as precise as possible, and their influence identified in scope and time. I’m sure that there are many attempts at the above, but rather sceptical on the precision of outcome (better chances on the tendency).

I recall reading this some time ago (3 years now):
https://towardsdatascience.com/using-recurrent-neural-networks-to-predict-bitcoin-btc-prices-c4ff70f9f3e4

The article concludes the following:
And that was just working on historical data, without attempting to work on all the rest mentioned above.

I don't have much of technical knowledge about the algorithm and related stuff. Based on a layman's view I find it to be impossible. If that is possible by now corporate firms and other richest could've got into development of the machine learning through which wealth can be multiplied with ease.

If such a machine learning exist, then the market won't be true as now and this will make decentralised system to be centralized which is against the objective of Satoshi.

Like most of the time it depends on what are your expectations out of the predictions that can be produced by Machine Learning, if you are expecting that the markets can be predicted all the time with perfect accuracy then it is obvious nothing can produce results like that.

However can the markets be traded that way and produce profits? Of course, and there are many trading firms doing exactly that, however if you do not know anything about coding, computers, artificial intelligence and machine learning then you better stay away from it.

There are many scopes and aspects that need to be considered if you want to develop an algorithm to predict bitcoin price. I didn't know which video or article you refer to but if they claim they can predict the price without showing proof then it is doubtful. If they truly can predict it they will disclose the algorithm and benefit it from their own, anyway.

After all, the price isn't determined solely based on past history or any correlation metrics that are used to manually predict the bitcoin price, it is vague. And to determine which data is needed to make the algorithm/ML works is complex. So, as of now, I think ML can not predict the price.

The price of bitcoin is highly dependent on many unpredictable variables, offline/online events and happenings so much that the outcome will be impossible to predict accurately, speculation can only be made even by AI's. IMHO, AI's can only give possible predictions based on current events but not future events that are unplanned.

How would the machine able to analyze each and every news that there is on the internet and how would they be able to track the whales and their wallets as well. I don't that that would work. They would also need a particular market size which is always changing. The volume of Bitcoin, the supply, the volatility is all against any software learning the patterns. There are softwares out there in the market which tends to make the users believe that they can predict the market price therefore at the end of the day I think :
A software will only be able to predict something which is backed up, based on some equations, is predictable not something like bitcoins which is 50% controlled by whales but 50% controlled by individuals, which is a very unpredictable equation.

Any other market? Man. 1 daily bitcoin volume = 150 daily volumes on whole stock market in my country across all 500 available stocks.
There are only few markets bigger than bitcoin's in terms of volume and liquidity but none of them compete with bitcoin if you add volatility into calculation.

Can AI predict bitcoin price? For sure it can in middle/short term. Manipulation you are talking about happens from time to time and is nothing else than statistic error because AI bot can trade 24/7.

As someone whos working as a python programmer also been studying Ai and ML during the last years I saw many people claim they created a bot that will predict the price of bitcoin, gold, etc... and it will give amazing profits in long term I tried to create one and used many systems such s linear regressions but the but didn't work out for me. All I can say is at the current technology level in the world, the bots are unable to do such a thing and using but for this purpose can be very much risky, however, AI is the future and soon we will be able to use AI and ML to predict the price of anything and this is just one small part the AI world is the future.

In most cases, traders face some common problems during trading. Whatever, Long term trader or short-time trader both become emotional during trading. In fact, the number of emotional traders is higher among us. For doing manually analysis with open eyes you need to gain a lot of knowledge and experience about trading and the stock market. Without sufficient experience or proper knowledge, you will not be able to reach any good conclusion by analysis. Trading bot can easily do the analysis within a short time for the traders, in this case, it is very efficient. And since bots predominate over technical analysis and provide emotionless predictions, the risk of loss is relatively low here, I said "relatively". Giving prediction is not its main work, it is subsidiary work And trading bots are helpful for traders' to do technical analysis.

No, they can't predict what will be the price of any crypto or bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin is unpredictable no one could predict what will be the price of Bitcoin in the next day or a week or even a month.

The price of Bitcoin always depends on demand and supply it could also affect by the news and market manipulation so do you think a bot or a machine learning tool could predict the price of Bitcoin?
For me no, it can't predict them it would be better if you can analyze the market with your own FA and TA is always the best than using a bot to predict the price of Bitcoin.

There might be a possibility, but I'm not banking on it. We have seen a lot of AIs and machine learning projects that went south real fast, and this might be the same case for AIs and algorithms that try to predict bitcoin's price: smooth sailing initially, then after a while, it will meet turbulent winds that will ultimately cause it to fail. They can claim that what they're doing is bound to hit the right targets 99% of the time, but I'll only believe if they make serious money out of the algorithm that they produced.

YouTube videos are heavily condensed to fit the desired timeline and in doing so ended up with convoluted facts or sometimes misinformation, what I'm trying to say is that no matter how many videos you watch, it doesn't make someone an expert, the best thing that it can ever do is pique your curiosity and make someone pursue to learn more in depth knowledge.

I've watched a lot of YouTube videos and read a lot of articles that claim that you can predict the Bitcoin price with Machine Learning and artificial intelligence like using some algorithm. Truth be told it is both intriguing and almost at the same time confusing. Personally, I don't think any ML or AI tech can make any price prediction now because we have a lot of whale manipulation (because the market size is smaller than any other market). Well, while I may be wrong I would like to know what you think. Have you ever gotten a satoshi richer by following the prediction of an algorithm?