Okay, first of all i understand that Segwit (BIP 141) is not going to work as it required 95% of the miners block to be mine with it
i personally think that i can work with a better time frame and most importantly with a better communication between 3 groups: developers, miners and users.
if these put aside their childishness and only stick to technical discussion to reach a common ground.
also remember that many miners will never signal until the last moment because of many reasons such as fear of getting attacked by the opposing group. so in fact you should add some percentage to any % support you see.
1) Segwit2X required 80%, and we are currently on 88%, does this means Segwit2X is currently activated? I mean it stated there will be a hardfork after 3 month so we will have a hard fork for block increase around november?
no it is not activated because the deadline for "signalling" is not yet here. i think it is 21th (in ~4-5 days)
right now miners are including a text in their coinbase transaction to show the support as the initial move.
and i also believe that the hard fork is after 6 months not 3.
2) Next, Is UASF (BIP 148) confirmed to be activated? Since it does not require the consent of any miners and it is basically a force update? And it will be activated on 1/8/2017 right?
yes but it depends on how much support it can get. a low hashrate with the current high difficulty can mean extremely slow blocks (may take hours to find one) and it is easily attackable!
this force update comes at a cost, a heavy cost if it gains low support which it currently has.
the good news is, this force update has forced some things to move faster. if SegWit2x can keep the support up and starts soon and with the same bit version then they will activate SegWit and BIP148 won't matter anymore.
3) Finally, if (1) Is currently activated, will (2) be activated too? Or regardless if (1) activate or not, (2) will activate on 1/8/2017?
its a bit tricky.
SegWit2x will probably lock in SegWit and then to BIP148 nodes it is the same thing they were looking for so they are doing practically the same thing then. and SegWit will be activated.... finally!
