Can someone tell me more about how the next difficulty is calculated

picolo

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Quote from: Argwai96 on December 25, 2014, 11:45:20 PM

Since no one has actually answered yet (although the bitcoin wisdom calculator is a good place to go to get the estimated next difficulty level/change)

The difficulty is calculated so that if the difficulty was the new difficulty as of 2016 blocks ago, the previous 2016 blocks would have taken exactly 14 days for the network to be found. For example if the previous 2016 blocks took exactly 7 days to find then the difficulty would go up by 100% (it would double). On the other hand if the previous 2016 blocks took exactly 21 days to find then it would go down by 33% (it would be 2/3 of what it was previously)

Thank you for the informations.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,640,955,017
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,132,215,958 (+11.05%)
Adjust time:   After 635 Blocks, About 4.1 days
Hashrate(?):   301,339,620 GH/s

on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Argwai96

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Since no one has actually answered yet (although the bitcoin wisdom calculator is a good place to go to get the estimated next difficulty level/change)

The difficulty is calculated so that if the difficulty was the new difficulty as of 2016 blocks ago, the previous 2016 blocks would have taken exactly 14 days for the network to be found. For example if the previous 2016 blocks took exactly 7 days to find then the difficulty would go up by 100% (it would double). On the other hand if the previous 2016 blocks took exactly 21 days to find then it would go down by 33% (it would be 2/3 of what it was previously)

picolo

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Quote from: activebiz on December 24, 2014, 12:10:21 PM

bticoinwisdom https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty has a good difficulty calculator

It's the one I linked in my previous message and it is the one I use for my calculation. It is very easy to use.

It is amazing that 100GHS could earn you 0.03824/month

activebiz

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bticoinwisdom https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty has a good difficulty calculator

picolo

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39457671307 Current difficulty -3.15% in 7 days Next difficulty from cloudminr.io

or Estimated Next Difficulty: 38,259,234,592 (-3.04%) from https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

picolo

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Quote from: sumantso on December 02, 2014, 09:35:46 AM

At the current hashrate what should be the difficulty so that the block production is 10 minutes, with a 4x limit. For example, if the average time now is 12 minutes, then the next difficulty will be 10/12th of the current.

A bit less than it is :

40300030327 Current difficulty
-0.57% in 0 days Next difficulty

When the difficulty changes, we will have the difficulty that would have statistically get us 10minutes in average of transaction time.

sumantso

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At the current hashrate what should be the difficulty so that the block production is 10 minutes, with a 4x limit. For example, if the average time now is 12 minutes, then the next difficulty will be 10/12th of the current.

kickbit

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You can view "next difficulty" here: https://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history
This site uses statistical data for prediction.
Works pretty fine

picolo

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Quote from: philipma1957 on December 01, 2014, 09:02:50 PM

Quote from: picolo on December 01, 2014, 08:34:10 PM

On my cloudminr account I see :

40300030327 Current difficulty
-1.09% in 1 days Next difficulty

The next difficulty is constantly updated on the account, how is it updated?

Bitcoin difficulty changes every 2016 blocks so about every 20,000minutes=333h=14 days so why does it indicated the next difficulty in one day?

PS on top you are very clever you know! Or as Vincent used to say aren't we clever!

we are deep into this diff period block 1900 or so out of 2016

you can read my difficulty threads. they list 3 different predication sources.

future predications can be based many ways. the actual number comes from block rate 1 block per 10 minute is the goal.

so if the network is growing and has normal luck it will solver faster then 1 every 10 minutes... so now over the last 1900 blocks we have averaged almost exactly 1 block every 10 minutes. so growth of diff is really close to 0

Thanks, it helps a lot. I will bookmark your threads and I will hopefully come back to look at them Wink

More hasrate means blocks should be resolved faster so there will be a rise in difficulty after 2016 blocks. If I understand correctly, the next difficulty prediction is based on the average time to solve a block since the last difficulty change. If it is less than 10minutes the prediction is a rise in difficulty and if it's less than 10minutes, the prediction is a decrease in difficulty.
If the average is 9minutes, does it mean the difficulty is going to be raised 10%?

I found this :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,140,344,413 (-0.40%)
Adjust time:    After 137 Blocks, About 22.8 hours

here : https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

philipma1957

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Quote from: picolo on December 01, 2014, 08:34:10 PM

On my cloudminr account I see :

40300030327 Current difficulty
-1.09% in 1 days Next difficulty

The next difficulty is constantly updated on the account, how is it updated?

Bitcoin difficulty changes every 2016 blocks so about every 20,000minutes=333h=14 days so why does it indicated the next difficulty in one day?

PS on top you are very clever you know! Or as Vincent used to say aren't we clever!

we are deep into this diff period block 1900 or so out of 2016

you can read my difficulty threads. they list 3 different predication sources.

future predications can be based many ways. the actual number comes from block rate 1 block per 10 minute is the goal.

so if the network is growing and has normal luck it will solver faster then 1 every 10 minutes... so now over the last 1900 blocks we have averaged almost exactly 1 block every 10 minutes. so growth of diff is really close to 0

picolo

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Quote

On my cloudminr account I see :

40300030327 Current difficulty
-1.09% in 1 days Next difficulty

The next difficulty is constantly updated on the account, how is it updated?

Bitcoin difficulty changes every 2016 blocks so about every 20,000minutes=333h=14 days so why does it indicated the next difficulty in one day?

The difficulty is now less than what it was when I started this thread.

39457671307 Current difficulty

-7.94% in 11 days

Topic: Can someone tell me more about how the next difficulty is calculated (Read 1914 times)