Can the price increase if the userbase saty the same ?

Zitdadast

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Quote from: n0ne on March 19, 2016, 12:06:35 PM

Increase in users will increase the usage of uᴉoɔʇᴉq. uᴉoɔʇᴉq with low user base needs high circulation of uᴉoɔʇᴉq to have a high price which is easily achieved if it has got large number of users.

The bitcoin price depends on the network effect. The price is proportional to the square of number of people using it.

n0ne

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Increase in users will increase the usage of bitcoin. Bitcoin with low user base needs high circulation of bitcoin to have a high price which is easily achieved if it has got large number of users.

ObscureBean

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The price can increase while the user base stays the same but that is definitely not what we want. It would be an artificial raise that does absolutely nothing for Bitcoin itself. Sure some people will likely make some money but for Bitcoin itself it will mean stagnation. User base is everything, without enough people using Bitcoin, it wouldn't matter that 1 BTC is worth $10,000. It'll be like an exclusive club that the masses view from the outside and that don't really mean anything to them. And if the user base doesn't increase then it will do the opposite and decrease over time until it dies out.
I don't think Bitcoin user base will stay the same though, it's growing day by day

botany

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Quote from: Zitdadast on March 10, 2016, 07:14:47 AM

If the user base remain the same and no new money comes to bitcoin, the price will drop as there is new supply of bitcoin every day.

User base refers to users adopting bitcoin, not new money coming in. Even if an existing user decides to dump a truckload of money in Bitcoin, the price will increase.

Kingno.1

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I think that increased use of bitcoin will not increase the price of an individual bitcoin. And in my view even if the userbase stays same , then also the price of bitcoin might increase.

RealPhotoshoper

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Quote from: Erkallys on January 30, 2016, 04:52:52 PM

A price increase is predicted by most of the users, including me. With such an event, this is possible that the price rise. However, in common times, with no special events, can it rise too ? I was wondering if the userbase stay the same until the enext halving, could it be possible that the price rise ? Maybe some of you have the answer ?

how can you think that price increase is predicted by most of the users?i'm sure bitcoin price is played by some people,some exchange,or boss,as we know bitcoin price have different in almost all exchange,almost all countries have price standard,and this is hard to believe.

n0ne

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A small variation in the price might be felt due to the low usage. Only when users increase the usage of bitcoin will also increase which leads to the increased circulation of bitcoin which is required for the increase of price.

mrhelpful

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Quote from: NorrisK on January 31, 2016, 12:43:32 PM

If no new money enters the market, that means there are no buy orders on exchanges and price would not move anymore. Basically halting the market. Or day traders would move the price down whole absorbing the excesss of mined coins.

Luckily, there will always be new cash flowing into the market. Even around me I'm hearing more and more people bought some bitcoin or altcoin. The adoptation is just a matter of time.

What you mentioned is overlooked on a daily basis.

But also buy orders can be manipulated at any point of given time for an exchange to off-set their risk of their "other money" to pay back others.

All they have to do is create buy orders.

alyssa85

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Bitcoin is still in it's inflationary phase - 25 new coins are created every ten minutes. So it needs new users just to stand still. In a way the momentum has sadly stopped and not much press interest is generated for the coin any more apart from talking about splits etc. It's a pity. With the world economy in a precarious state, BTc should be well placed as an alternative, but because of mistakes, it isn't.

Zitdadast

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If the user base remain the same and no new money comes to bitcoin, the price will drop as there is new supply of bitcoin every day.

Erkallys

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Quote from: n2004al on January 31, 2016, 02:54:47 PM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2016, 06:13:49 AM

Large userbase means nothing to the price. 95% of the people are small fishes that contribute next to nothing to the price. We need investors with deep pocket, even if they are the far minority, these people can move mountains. 1-2% is ruling the price with iron fist, and the other 3-5% are whales that can manipulate a certain exchange well enough to make millions in profit every year. And the other 95% are clowns.

I totally disagree with this kind of reasoning. That 95% that for you are nothing, according to me, can move the mountains and have the power to lead the price of bitcoin at the highest possible levels or at the levels when the only person who mined bitcoin was Satoshi himself. Lets do a simple example. Let's tell that the people of bitcoin in all the world are about 5 million (I think are much more but that remain in these levels in order to be fully credible). 95% of these 5 million are 4.75 million. Let suppose that in average all these people are only 2 bitcoin. That mean that all that people own 9.5 million bitcoin. The overall amount of bitcoin in circulation actually are about 15 million. So almost 2/3 of all the bitcoins are in the hands of these "without any kind of importance for the market" people. It is enough that be created a panic from something or from an bad event and not all but half of those sell their 2 bitcoins and the price of bitcoin will go at the Satoshi's days. The same if, for one whatever good reason told openly and publicly, they decide to buy one or two other bitcoins. The price will go more than at the times of MtGox. To not tell that the above data are the minimum possible which can be taken in consideration.

You're right and wrong at the same time. I agree with you that this minority of "small fishes" can move mountains. However, I don't think that there's 5 million people in the Bitcoin scene. I'd rather say 1 to 2 millions. Also, the little players have more around 0,4BTC than 2BTC.

n2004al

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Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2016, 06:13:49 AM

Large userbase means nothing to the price. 95% of the people are small fishes that contribute next to nothing to the price. We need investors with deep pocket, even if they are the far minority, these people can move mountains. 1-2% is ruling the price with iron fist, and the other 3-5% are whales that can manipulate a certain exchange well enough to make millions in profit every year. And the other 95% are clowns.

I totally disagree with this kind of reasoning. That 95% that for you are nothing, according to me, can move the mountains and have the power to lead the price of bitcoin at the highest possible levels or at the levels when the only person who mined bitcoin was Satoshi himself. Lets do a simple example. Let's tell that the people of bitcoin in all the world are about 5 million (I think are much more but that remain in these levels in order to be fully credible). 95% of these 5 million are 4.75 million. Let suppose that in average all these people are only 2 bitcoin. That mean that all that people own 9.5 million bitcoin. The overall amount of bitcoin in circulation actually are about 15 million. So almost 2/3 of all the bitcoins are in the hands of these "without any kind of importance for the market" people. It is enough that be created a panic from something or from an bad event and not all but half of those sell their 2 bitcoins and the price of bitcoin will go at the Satoshi's days. The same if, for one whatever good reason told openly and publicly, they decide to buy one or two other bitcoins. The price will go more than at the times of MtGox. To not tell that the above data are the minimum possible which can be taken in consideration.

NorrisK

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If no new money enters the market, that means there are no buy orders on exchanges and price would not move anymore. Basically halting the market. Or day traders would move the price down whole absorbing the excesss of mined coins.

Luckily, there will always be new cash flowing into the market. Even around me I'm hearing more and more people bought some bitcoin or altcoin. The adoptation is just a matter of time.

Erkallys

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Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2016, 06:48:51 AM

Quote from: Erkallys on January 31, 2016, 06:31:58 AM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2016, 06:13:49 AM

Large userbase means nothing to the price. 95% of the people are small fishes that contribute next to nothing to the price. We need investors with deep pocket, even if they are the far minority, these people can move mountains. 1-2% is ruling the price with iron fist, and the other 3-5% are whales that can manipulate a certain exchange well enough to make millions in profit every year. And the other 95% are clowns.

I love your comparisons Cheesy

! This was not exactly what I asked. You say that we need big players, but I asked if no more big players nor regular guys fall in love with Bitcoin, will it be possible for the price to increase ?

In the OP I can't find this back.

Quote from: Erkallys on January 30, 2016, 04:52:52 PM

A price increase is predicted by most of the users, including me. With such an event, this is possible that the price rise. However, in common times, with no special events, can it rise too ? I was wondering if the userbase stay the same until the enext halving, could it be possible that the price rise ? Maybe some of you have the answer ?

Anyway, to answer your question. If no more whales and wealthy investors join the Bitcoin camp, then it still possible to see the price increase, but in the long term we will see the price go down and down. Even existing whales and wealthy investors will leave the market when there is no new money comming into Bitcoin.

So this mean that the invested money in Bitcoin don't increase, the price will have to crash someday ? A scheme like this one can't run forever.

1Referee

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Quote from: Erkallys on January 31, 2016, 06:31:58 AM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2016, 06:13:49 AM

Large userbase means nothing to the price. 95% of the people are small fishes that contribute next to nothing to the price. We need investors with deep pocket, even if they are the far minority, these people can move mountains. 1-2% is ruling the price with iron fist, and the other 3-5% are whales that can manipulate a certain exchange well enough to make millions in profit every year. And the other 95% are clowns.

I love your comparisons Cheesy

! This was not exactly what I asked. You say that we need big players, but I asked if no more big players nor regular guys fall in love with Bitcoin, will it be possible for the price to increase ?

In the OP I can't find this back.

Quote from: Erkallys on January 30, 2016, 04:52:52 PM

A price increase is predicted by most of the users, including me. With such an event, this is possible that the price rise. However, in common times, with no special events, can it rise too ? I was wondering if the userbase stay the same until the enext halving, could it be possible that the price rise ? Maybe some of you have the answer ?

Anyway, to answer your question. If no more whales and wealthy investors join the Bitcoin camp, then it still possible to see the price increase, but in the long term we will see the price go down and down. Even existing whales and wealthy investors will leave the market when there is no new money comming into Bitcoin.

Erkallys

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Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2016, 06:13:49 AM

Large userbase means nothing to the price. 95% of the people are small fishes that contribute next to nothing to the price. We need investors with deep pocket, even if they are the far minority, these people can move mountains. 1-2% is ruling the price with iron fist, and the other 3-5% are whales that can manipulate a certain exchange well enough to make millions in profit every year. And the other 95% are clowns.

I love your comparisons Cheesy

! This was not exactly what I asked. You say that we need big players, but I asked if no more big players nor regular guys fall in love with Bitcoin, will it be possible for the price to increase ?

1Referee

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Large userbase means nothing to the price. 95% of the people are small fishes that contribute next to nothing to the price. We need investors with deep pocket, even if they are the far minority, these people can move mountains. 1-2% is ruling the price with iron fist, and the other 3-5% are whales that can manipulate a certain exchange well enough to make millions in profit every year. And the other 95% are clowns.

n2004al

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Quote from: Erkallys on January 30, 2016, 04:52:52 PM

A price increase is predicted by most of the users, including me. With such an event, this is possible that the price rise. However, in common times, with no special events, can it rise too ? I was wondering if the userbase stay the same until the enext halving, could it be possible that the price rise ? Maybe some of you have the answer ?

Sure that can increased. It was enough that this user base buy more than before and the price for sure will increased. The demand (the increase of which bring even increase of price) cannot be higher only by the spread of user base (which, to tell the right, is the best high in order to have sustainability or/and stability of increase of price) but even from the increase of the amount bought by the same user base.

It is normal and easy to understand that if today are bought 100 bitcoin within a day and tomorrow are asked to be bought 1000 bitcoin the price for sure will increased. Maybe not today by the next day (if the increase persist) for sure yes. It is the same like 900 new users equal of the existing ones enter as new ones in the market.

bearex

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I think yes. But not by that much. The real increase comes with more users getting BTC.

steveds

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If some MNC's start paying or offering their service in bitcoin then they would buy tons and it might eventually increase the price but they dont create accounts on bitcointalk and thus it has no affect over the user base or the amount of people but the amount of $ going in.

Amph

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yeah because you only need few rich people to increase the value to 10k or even more, but for crzy value like 1M you need massive adoption there is no other way around

i think the former can bring more the latter

SFR10

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I believe the deciding factor for this would be more of a demand as opposed to the user base itself. Users could stay the same or even reduced but if the demand increases, the price will increase as well regardless of having less or same user base. A little correction on the title of the thread "saty" to stay Wink

OC19850520

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The price will stay the same if you ask me.
Lets say that the userbase stays the same after the halving; no new miners, no new bitcoin users everything remains just the way it was the moment this sentence was written then the price would not increase after the halving because although the supply has dropped the demand will remain the same. The lack of adoption will not cause the price to reduce because the supply has already dropped.

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Quote from: Erkallys on January 30, 2016, 04:52:52 PM

A price increase is predicted by most of the users, including me. With such an event, this is possible that the price rise. However, in common times, with no special events, can it rise too ? I was wondering if the userbase stay the same until the enext halving, could it be possible that the price rise ? Maybe some of you have the answer ?

Sure if supply changes or diffussion gets impacted meaning more users have bitcoins but some do not spend them and keep them in storage.
Like any fixed supply economy it can change based on internal metrics as well.

romero121

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Once the user base gets increased simultaneously tremendous growth can be found. When the user base increases automatically the accumulated bitcoin flow increases or come to circulation. This release of huge accumulations due to increased user base will surely increase bitcoin priceōì

Lituation

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Yes, it's possible. Normally user base is growing every day but there's no exact correlation between price and user base raise. If speculators want to rise the price they don't need new blood. Only if the price rises more people get attention of Bitcoin and user base will raise too.

Lutzow

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Provided there'll be more funds that the current userbase will be willing to spend.

richardsNY

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It can easily happen. I think it's already happening right now. The influx of new users is very small but the amount of new money flowing into Bitcoin is what I consider to be the most important aspect. As long as there is money flowing into Bitcoin, then the price will rise without any problems.

a7mos

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It is a supply and demand market. So more users means more supply and more supply will lead to price increase. So I believe that the main factor that will lead to increase bitcoin price is the more adoptors it got

Erkallys

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Quote from: gentlemand on January 30, 2016, 05:13:11 PM

Trader base is a whole lot more important that user base in terms of price. The people who are actively buying and selling, let alone those who have the clout to influence the price, is probably a pretty small fraction. If more existing users started to play markets more often then you'd see movement.

Having some movements is a thing, having a stable price increase is another one. So if more users convert themselves into traders, this could lead to a price increase ?

gentlemand

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Trader base is a whole lot more important that user base in terms of price. The people who are actively buying and selling, let alone those who have the clout to influence the price, is probably a pretty small fraction. If more existing users started to play markets more often then you'd see movement.

simon66

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If the number of users doesn't increase but the amount invested per user and use per user do increase then I think that would still lead to an increase in price.

Erkallys

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A price increase is predicted by most of the users, including me. With such an event, this is possible that the price rise. However, in common times, with no special events, can it rise too ? I was wondering if the userbase stay the same until the enext halving, could it be possible that the price rise ? Maybe some of you have the answer ?

Topic: Can the price increase if the userbase saty the same ? (Read 1676 times)