Can we detect economic cycles with bitcoin?

Hydrogen

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Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

Bitcoin has suffered a 53% collapse since the beginning of the year. Apparently it's because the time is coming for US citizens and businesses to report to the federal tax agency. The proximity of the so-called 'Tax Day', or last day to fulfill its tax obligations, takes place this year on April 17. As the date has approached, the concentration of sales orders has been higher, especially in the last month and a half.
If we analyze the Bitcoin chart from the beginning of the year, we see that it has been bearish until April, and it is only afterwards that it has begun its recovery.

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

There are many variables and angles, it can be difficult to attribute price trends to a single cause or prime mover. If it is true buyers were waiting for post april tax season to buy, the trend may not constant for next year. The combination of massive short selling on CBOE futures, coupled with big bitcoin dumps we saw near the beginning of 2018 might never happen again. We might never see the same price increase post april if bitcoin isn't devalued again post 2018.

Price trends can also become weaker over time. The first bitcoin fork announcement had a significant effect on btc price. The 2nd announcement had less of an effect. 3rd announcement was weaker still. The tightening of tax restrictions we witnessed late 2017 and early 2018 may have caught by surprise. Next year they could have far less of an effect, or no effect at all. Its premature to say which cycles will be consistent and which will be one time things. Only time will tell.

gambitcoin53

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bitcoin today is at its development stage, those early years up to present is not enough to predict even a pattern, remember, cryptos are just new and not yet stable and it will never be stable, crypto less than a decade old, so a predicted pattern is seems impossible now, maybe a slight trend can be associated as a pattern but not to be relied on. actually the market is not yet to be relied on.

HabBear

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Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

Bitcoin has suffered a 53% collapse since the beginning of the year. Apparently it's because the time is coming for US citizens and businesses to report to the federal tax agency.

The proximity of the so-called 'Tax Day', or last day to fulfill its tax obligations, takes place this year on April 17. As the date has approached, the concentration of sales orders has been higher, especially in the last month and a half.

If we analyze the Bitcoin chart from the beginning of the year, we see that it has been bearish until April, and it is only afterwards that it has begun its recovery.

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

Based on your logic? No.

The decline of the price of Bitcoin in 2018 has nothing to do with the American Tax Day. And it's either arrogant or ignorant to assume that one country can drive an entire global market, not to mention based on something as unrelated as the tax day.

In fact, if you think the American tax day is driving buying or selling behavior, the American Bitcoin holders would have kept HOLDING! Because when they sell they incur a tax obligations! Your logic, if it were logical, is literally backwards!

To connect economic activity cycles with bitcoin the economic activity or driver or predictor of a future Bitcoin price would need to be global in scale, i.e., occurring in world region, not just one company. Additionally, the economic activity would drive price, not the other way around. The price of Bitcoin isn't driving economic activity.

dothebeats

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Interesting as it seems but unfortunately, bitcoin tends to not go towards any plausible projections there is. Traders have also tried to create a yearly pattern for bitcoin but it just wouldn't give; bitcoin is too unpredictable and volatile to make any definite guesses out of its price and economic cycles surely cannot be painted out of it due to the market being a tiny speck compared to the stock markets. Also, it is hinted that during Christmas season, bitcoin will still make a push and breaking $20k seems to be an easy feat, however come Dec. 23, prices have come falling down and the rest is history. Bitcoin's price pattern is just too murky to draw something important, especially economic cycles and whatnot.

PsylockReborn

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Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

In traditional trading, with many years of statistics, economic cycles are detected that are repeated annually. There are good months to buy and others to sell, and traditionally there are times when the stock market rises and others when it goes down. Many of these cycles are determined by known events, at Christmas sales go up, in summer investors sell, at the end of the year investment funds regularize their positions, etc. and the stock Exchange reflects those movements.

Do you think we can establish economic cycles with Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has suffered a 53% collapse since the beginning of the year. Apparently it's because the time is coming for US citizens and businesses to report to the federal tax agency. The proximity of the so-called 'Tax Day', or last day to fulfill its tax obligations, takes place this year on April 17. As the date has approached, the concentration of sales orders has been higher, especially in the last month and a half.
If we analyze the Bitcoin chart from the beginning of the year, we see that it has been bearish until April, and it is only afterwards that it has begun its recovery.

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

I know its so hard to detect such patterns of fluctuations when it comes to bitcoin and other crypto since its value is very volatile but as we can see clearly that every 4th quarter of the year, bitcoin's value will show uptrend pattern. If you would go back to previous years, there's no assurance but the pattern approaching to the month of December, bitcoin's value will really go uptrend as well as the other coins. I strongly believe that this year, history will repeat itself since the lightning network was developed their are lots of positive things about bitcoin now and there are still so much developments that can happen about the technology until the end of the year. We will just sit back and relax wait for the moment til we reach the end of the year and try to see if every end of the year bitcoin and altcoins will truly perform and increase their value in the market.

MiF

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Quote from: The_Dark_Knight on May 03, 2018, 07:37:42 PM

Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

In traditional trading, with many years of statistics, economic cycles are detected that are repeated annually. There are good months to buy and others to sell, and traditionally there are times when the stock market rises and others when it goes down. Many of these cycles are determined by known events, at Christmas sales go up, in summer investors sell, at the end of the year investment funds regularize their positions, etc. and the stock Exchange reflects those movements.

Do you think we can establish economic cycles with Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has suffered a 53% collapse since the beginning of the year. Apparently it's because the time is coming for US citizens and businesses to report to the federal tax agency. The proximity of the so-called 'Tax Day', or last day to fulfill its tax obligations, takes place this year on April 17. As the date has approached, the concentration of sales orders has been higher, especially in the last month and a half.
If we analyze the Bitcoin chart from the beginning of the year, we see that it has been bearish until April, and it is only afterwards that it has begun its recovery.

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

It is very difficult to establish if there are some definitive patterns when it comes to the movement of bitcoin, bitcoin has existed for a very short amount of time and it has been even less the time in which it had a market cap of a decent size, besides we need to recognize that bitcoin does not move in the same way that other assets since it is way more volatile, so any pattern that you see appearing is probably just a coincidence.

I don't see any coincidence with this matter mate, because the economic of bitcoin recently has been corrected so well after the dip happening for the past few months this year. In fact the current situations of the markets right now particularly with the traders was eventually rising its demand. But it doesn't come to a point that price will pump very fast, yet it slowly gains its momentum. We can't detect the actual cycles but can be monitored from time to time if you're not busy with other priorities.

The_Dark_Knight

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Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

In traditional trading, with many years of statistics, economic cycles are detected that are repeated annually. There are good months to buy and others to sell, and traditionally there are times when the stock market rises and others when it goes down. Many of these cycles are determined by known events, at Christmas sales go up, in summer investors sell, at the end of the year investment funds regularize their positions, etc. and the stock Exchange reflects those movements.

Do you think we can establish economic cycles with Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has suffered a 53% collapse since the beginning of the year. Apparently it's because the time is coming for US citizens and businesses to report to the federal tax agency. The proximity of the so-called 'Tax Day', or last day to fulfill its tax obligations, takes place this year on April 17. As the date has approached, the concentration of sales orders has been higher, especially in the last month and a half.
If we analyze the Bitcoin chart from the beginning of the year, we see that it has been bearish until April, and it is only afterwards that it has begun its recovery.

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

It is very difficult to establish if there are some definitive patterns when it comes to the movement of bitcoin, bitcoin has existed for a very short amount of time and it has been even less the time in which it had a market cap of a decent size, besides we need to recognize that bitcoin does not move in the same way that other assets since it is way more volatile, so any pattern that you see appearing is probably just a coincidence.

Oceat

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Do you think that if we can detect a certain cycles, everyone could benefit from it? Most of us are all aware of the price manipulation every now and then and most of us are like puppets that trying to follow what the big fish are doing. One thing is certain those big fish can't control the people's mind anymore in the future once Bitcoin reaches the peak bottom and everyone couldn't mine Bitcoin anymore.

magneto

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I don't know about bitcoin's price cycles reflecting on the wider economy per se. Ultimately, bitcoin is bitcoin. And currently, it isn't really used for commerce "in the real world", as some people would say.

Sure, there could be statistics derived from bitcoin's value fluctuations that indicate which stage of the economic cycle we're in currently. But I think that it's hard to draw correct conclusions all the time, and there are obviously no guarantees of the predictions being true in the future. And don't forget that bitcoin isn't just used by one country, and it's global. So even though US's tax day may have influenced prices, it's definitely not the only factor.

It's probably much more appropriate to analyse bitcoin's own bull/bear cycles with its prices.

Ilegendph

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Quote from: hase0278 on May 03, 2018, 05:24:10 AM

Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

Do you think we can establish economic cycles with Bitcoin?

We cannot establish an economic cycle with bitcoin because of it's unpredictable price, but in the future it is possible when bitcoin has been evenly distributed to the public.

Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

No one can deduce a pattern that will be repeated each year, but one can use both technical analysis and fundamental analysis to predict price movements in the future. Instead of wasting time trying to deduce a pattern, why not learn how to do TA's and FA's to take advantage of predicted price movements?

I believe that its too early to say that we cannot create economic cycle and make a pattern because it has still its potential and I think the number of countries that may adapt this kind of technology is still large.

solidrock

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Quote from: hase0278 on May 03, 2018, 05:24:10 AM

Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

Do you think we can establish economic cycles with Bitcoin?

We cannot establish an economic cycle with bitcoin because of it's unpredictable price, but in the future it is possible when bitcoin has been evenly distributed to the public.

Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

No one can deduce a pattern that will be repeated each year, but one can use both technical analysis and fundamental analysis to predict price movements in the future. Instead of wasting time trying to deduce a pattern, why not learn how to do TA's and FA's to take advantage of predicted price movements?

Great answer! I think that it is a bit early overall, It is such a new market and we don't have enough trading and history to see a cycle. The price is too volatile and I think it is because it is so new... and to be honest it might be hard to say that it is Bitcoin that will win and be the main cryptocurrency in the long run... even though I believe so!

yugyug

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For bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency where its value are not based on the economic status of ones country besides it is based on supply and demand and the supply and demand are not pattern on some popular event like tax days and christmas but the adoption of a certain large group just like last year the spike of its value was the result of the Japanese adoption as a legal tender and some major finances accepting bitcoin.

1Referee

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It's quite difficult since past achievements and happenings don't offer any guarantees for what might be going to happen in the future, so it's always somewhat of a gamble in the end. The only thing that does make sense, is that everyone is focusing on the tax season traditionally being that what gets markets to decrease, where its effect largely also depends on what happened prior to that.

If the market remained relatively flat all year, the tax sell-offs won't be all that severe, but in a scenario like what we experienced last year, and especially in the crypto market where exaggeration of pumps and dumps are part of the game, market adjustments are going to be extreme mostly. Even if tax sell-offs aren't actually happening, the market thinking it does is enough to trigger traders to start selling like there is no tomorrow.

damberg

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On economic cycles with Bitcoin - I do not think events like Christmas and Tax day influence bitcoin price the same way every year. Also I don't know any connected markets that would Bitcoin (or altcoins generally) impact.

On predictability - We have now a very limited historical data to deduce such patterns. Maybe in a few years. Wink

hase0278

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Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

Do you think we can establish economic cycles with Bitcoin?

We cannot establish an economic cycle with bitcoin because of it's unpredictable price, but in the future it is possible when bitcoin has been evenly distributed to the public.

Quote from: rillater on May 03, 2018, 03:33:51 AM

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

No one can deduce a pattern that will be repeated each year, but one can use both technical analysis and fundamental analysis to predict price movements in the future. Instead of wasting time trying to deduce a pattern, why not learn how to do TA's and FA's to take advantage of predicted price movements?

rillater

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In traditional trading, with many years of statistics, economic cycles are detected that are repeated annually. There are good months to buy and others to sell, and traditionally there are times when the stock market rises and others when it goes down. Many of these cycles are determined by known events, at Christmas sales go up, in summer investors sell, at the end of the year investment funds regularize their positions, etc. and the stock Exchange reflects those movements.

Do you think we can establish economic cycles with Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has suffered a 53% collapse since the beginning of the year. Apparently it's because the time is coming for US citizens and businesses to report to the federal tax agency. The proximity of the so-called 'Tax Day', or last day to fulfill its tax obligations, takes place this year on April 17. As the date has approached, the concentration of sales orders has been higher, especially in the last month and a half.
If we analyze the Bitcoin chart from the beginning of the year, we see that it has been bearish until April, and it is only afterwards that it has begun its recovery.

Can we deduce a pattern to be repeated each year, and take advantage of it?

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