Topic: Can you confirm my "DUMP" analysis? (Read 105 times)

To determine the ultra high volume that indicates whales are buying or selling, you can simply use "VSA Volume" indicator.

If you're in crypto, 5mins time frame with an ultra high volume doesn't mean that whales are selling or buying, simply because their marketcap are too low unlike stocks and forex who have a huge marketcap. Personally, 4h time frame and above, with an ultra high volume is considered that whales are the cause.

It fully depends on quality of these rules
Sounds like it is worth checking such strategy but I would recommend picking mid volume pairs since the momentum price of the ones with the low volume is exposed to market makers which may get easy money if they bump the price on such moment.

Thanks! And you are absolutely right about different size of MC for vary coins. I'm trying to make it dynamic based on specific formula on pine script. So i can connect it as a Tradingview indicator to Traderlands platform and see it how it works.

Generally, you did a good job. Rapidly increasing volumes are indicating that whales are joining the game and some serious price change is about to come. The numbers for the rules would be different for different coins. Coins with lower MC would have a higher volume proportions.
I would say that during the flat market volume analysis should work pretty well.

I know it may sounds ambitious but some point it looks like works.

Let's get started.

Step 1.
Check 1 day ARB chart first. ~%15 down starting 10th Sept.

https://i.ibb.co/V208pyb/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-36-47.png

Step 2.
Check 1 hour ARB chart. Starting to drop at 04:00 (UTC)

https://i.ibb.co/NFN8nJ9/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-43-13.png

Step 3.
Let's get more detailed. On 5 mins chart, check ARB volume.

https://i.ibb.co/kg2st2z/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-46-01.png

As you can see before dumping, total volume of last 10 bars 3.3 M ARB on 5 mins chart. 04:20 starting dump and 14 M ARB volume.

Step 4.
Setting up rules.

If current bars volume is 5 times higher than last 10 bars avg volume AND -%0.5 candle change on 5 mins chart. Thus, it's considered as dump and sell.
In order to calculate and follow this rule 7/24, i'm using an algo trade platform called Traderlands. (It's free)

This is how it is done
https://i.ibb.co/qm9ty6K/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-12-01-34.png

Step 5.
Check rule and exit point

According to our rule 331k x 5 = 1.6 M ARB volume should be to sell it. So on 1 min chart;

Starting 04:20, in 3 mins volume goes up ~8 M ARB.

https://i.ibb.co/jwMvJ5r/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-12-03-54.png

Estimated exit price: 0.8790

Let's consider we buy on 0.8881 on 2th Sept and waiting price up. This dump would be disaster unless we had these tools and idea

So we exit on 0.8790 and our loss ~%1.

It's also perfect timing for possible SHORT position i guess.

I set an algo for this matter on Traderlands and started forward testing. Let's see what will be happen.


If you have any other idea or criticism, i'm open to discuss.