Topic: CEX.io GHS Bubble ? (Read 11362 times)

Hello Rammy. As you may remember Cex.IO stopped their cloud mining operations on January and they stated they would focus on the exchange part of the service. Since then, the volume of BTC<-->USD have decreased, and the picture of the current situation is what I showed in the other post: the Market Deepth graph you can see in their webpage. A sane exchange have equilibrated demand and offer, or in terms of that graph, both halves should be similar (as it was some months ago in cex.io). But right now they have 10 times more offer of BTC than demand. In other words: if right now all the BTC owners would want to sell them, they would receive less than $35 on average. This may indicate that bitcoin buyers have lost the trust in the exchange, in the BTC or in both.

I am a user of Cex and I wouldn’t like to see them disappear (yesterday I exchanged $50, p.e.). But they are facing several problems these days that may compromise their business:

-   Cloud mining is interrupted
-   GHash.IO pool is losing its slice of the pie of the hashrate (less fees due to miners exchanging)
-   The exchange is reducing its volume (less fees they can charge)

Is it more clear to you now? I took my time yesterday to make the image I posted and I’m taking my time to answer you. Do you really think I am posting to increase my rate? And please, save to yourself stuff as calling me clown.

Happy mining, trading or wathever you do

Yes, they stopped cloud mining for now, but these clowns dont know what they are talking about.

I thought they ceized their operation or whater or paused it.

But I guess not, but yeah the prices I see you have better options like spoondoolies partner up with their cloud mining buddy genesis mining. You can also pay by creditcard so if something happens you can actually have better recourse then most.

Why are u posting these kinda crap ? What cloud mining ?
What are you talking about ?
Oh ... u just posted to raise your post count ... didnt you ?

Your post is full of stupidity, i do trading on cex and everything is just fine.

glad this thread got a bump...I had $5 in BTC that I had forgotten when I cashed out all my ghs last year.

True, I was going to buy some myself, but they declined my card

Not only the cloud mining is bad. What is concerning is the BTC trading... there is no people buying Bitcoins!!:




In other words: there are potentially 13900USD available to buy 409BTC. This is $34 per Bitcoin...

Cex.IO is ill, and frankly I don't desire them to disappear, I like that exchange. But I think they can't survive this way much longer

N-n-n-necro!

Yeah, sorry to bring this back up, but just to prove you all right... http://cex.io/trade
Yep. You're right. Death to cex, and let's just all move on.

So many people lost money on Cex.io and not too many made money; you can make money with the referral system or if you got lucky and bought before the price went up then sold and didn't buy back

I don't think that time ever existed.  CEX.IO was the first and has only been in business about 1 year.  Last year at this time were were having 20-30% jumps with these new things called ASICs brought to the table.  The jumps have slowed down if anything.

It was profitable for some time when difficulty wasn't this high and didn't increase that fast. It was a very long time ago and it is no longer profitable was the difficulty rises faster than before.

Cloud mining never been profitable right?

Getting closer to that 0.002BTC/GH/s, its on 0.0034 right now
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/cexio/ghsbtc

It is a game of hot potato.  Anybody holding right now is hoping for a 5 or 10% increase so they can get out (assuming they're not delusional and thinking they can profit).  The ones selling are willing to cut their loses.  It's a game of chicken on a race to the exit - those left holding at the end will be crying.

You have new people signing up everyday and buying new shares + reinvested profit which push the price higher but not enough to have a stable price or to even make money

For the price to increase, you need higher demands. Since most people already know that they will never make ROI there, the price is likely to decrease since not much people would want to buy there. The difficulty is going to skyrocket soon, making ROI even worst than no profits.

If you are lucky you sell higher than you bought but it is what I said : luck

I find that cex.io is really not profitable at all. By the time you actually make a visible profit, the price will have fluctuated. The price of GHS almost makes its own mining irrelevant because you will either lose or gain a lot more money by trading the GHS in the market.

Unless they make their maintenance costs lower, Ghs prices will continue to drop since it won't be profitable to hold them any more.

No, the maintainence price would be very very high, cutting a lot of your profit. Since there isn't much demand for GH, the price would continue dropping, even if you sell it very soon, there is a possibility you would only get half of your investment back. 1TH would cost way too much unless you have that much money to waste.

Well, 1TH is ~1000GH, so 1000*0.0048 = 4.8BTC/TH.  Considering you can purchase 1TH for ~2BTC these days, I'd say it's a total loser.

Put it this way, If the CEX price dropped below 0.002BTC/GH/s in the next week, it still wouldn't be a good deal.

for now cloud-mining has not profitable, because the price is too high.

You could theorically make money if the difficulty goes down a lot and a lot of new players arrive on cex but it is less likely than the other way around


It has been going down for months on end

cex.io is a waste of BTC. To even break even on your ghs you need to be up by 2% + the withdraw fee.  Its sad but people in the chat box on that site are buying .1 GHs thinking they can make money. Cex preys on fools and people who have no clue about btc other then its worth money and you mine it to get it.  

It is nothing more then an elaborate gambiling site with the odds in there favore because in reality cex controls the ghs prices anyone who doesnt see that is blind, there are no laws in btc market manipulation.

On july 7th they posted this picture on their facebook, today the price has dropped even further down. Had you got suckered in by them thinking it was a good deal, you would already be down BTC.
They prey on peoples greed hoping and preying the price goes up. Looking at the stats they will never go up to the point where youll make that wow factor return. Cex.io is for fools.

Theres some sad people on there who spend hours and hours a day trading up just to make .00003 profit a day if or maybe 5$ if there lucky on a good day. its pathetic. Stay awwy from cex. if you like to gamble just play satoshi roullete.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t31.0-8/p600x600/10359003_595178053916402_2802606742839566690_o.png

It is slightly more complicated then that because of NPV. If you still have the option of selling your GHs at any time then the value will be increased even though the stream of revenue has decreased.

GHS price can go up because there are more new buyers or the market thinks the market will keep its GHS at this price

It has disconnected difficulty for around 8 weeks now which shows there is bullish sentiment on being able to buy and sell for a profit with some mining dividends in between as an upside. So as there is a disconnect it no longer follows it must move correlated. This doesn't mean that it won't reconnect in the future though.
Nice trade philipma1957.

Still it does not make sense. GHS/BTC price should theoretically follow the difficulty increase. So for 25% diff increase the price should have decreased by 25%, i.e. from 0.0075 to somewhere around 0.0052.. Even though it dropped to 0.006 for a minute, it is now around 0.0067 which is less that 10% drop.
This means the market is extremely optimistic about the ROI of their investment..

Looks now it is stabilized again around 0.0067

  it is a guessing game at best.
 I check the site every 4 hours..Then  if I stumble on it with a big drop like today I buy some and list it back about 7 % higher.

I turned 50 ghs at .0060 into 50 at.0065 in under 10 minutes , but that is truly due to looking at it in the middle of a good drop.  if I had checked 10 minutes later it would have been at .0065 not .0060.

maybe someone playing with it?
internal person maybe
i'll try your method, maybe i can make some profit there

pop  pop pop


  I purchased a bit today at .0060  put it back for sale at .0065

I put in a second order at .0055




And in under ten minutes it bounced to .0065 and i made some btc

Well the bubble is exploding! GHS price down to 0.006 and dropping fast!

says the guy with the link to a gambling site in his sig? ;-)

I'm not saying that cex.io isn't risky...I am suggesting it is no less risky than buying a miner and hoping to outrun declining BTC value, difficulty increases and power costs to get a positive return

I do both and I tried cex.io with a few hundred GHS to see how it played out and so far, I am cash flow positive (most likely because I bought when it was even lower than it is now) and I still have a fungible asset that I can convert back to BTC at any time I decide.

People see that the price is stable for days or weeks so they think it will stay stable and they can sell at a profit after a few days or weeks when the price is likely to go down at any moment and they are likely to lose when they invest
We hear the same thing with gambling : "i lost because i got greedy and didn't stop in time; if i could stop after winning a little bit i would be so rich"

cex.io can drop from .0074 to .0040  over night  better yet it could  drop that as I type , but it has not done it  so if you purchased  the last month you made money.


 so the real question is do you feel lucky?


fundamentals   suggest a price from .003 to .004

Oh the irony of suggesting to avoid risk in a bitcoin forum

You can't rationalize with people who don't want to look at the underlying fundamentals.  If you tell somebody that standing on a moving car is dangerous and they do it and they don't die - they'll say it's not dangerous.  Just move along.  The trend-line and the math has been posted to death in many threads.

If you are likely to lose money because the price is likely to go down more than what you will get in interests it is not a good investment and your bitcoins are better of in your wallet!
Playing casino can give you a return in the short run but you are mathematically a loser when you play

The prices did change a bit, from about 0.0068 to 0.0071 over the course of three-four months. It's profitable so long as you sell your ghs after a while and the price remains constant (even better if it goes up, obviously)

As bbeesly said, it's not the best investment, but it's certainly better than leaving them in your wallet. Gives you an interest of sorts

there have been maintenance fees for at least the last year.  they only account for the cost associated with electricity and maintenance, something we pay on our end when we mine at home

while the cost of mining eats into profit, in the case of Cex it doesn't completely eliminate profit.

if Cex GHS's weren't fungible - they can be traded back to BTC and or purchased in micro amounts - then you would be depending solo on getting back your BTC investment but since you can trade back out at any point, you have a much lower risk and at least for me, it has been better than just leaving the BTC in a wallet doing nothing

Serveral months ago, it was certainly quite profitable, nowadays, with the maintenance fees and high difficulty, it isn't so profitable any longer. I don't think there was maintainence fees when you bought it.

wow, rare example for someone make profit only from mining
how long you mining there? and how much GHS prices when you bought and sold?

Hi thanks for sharing, do you remember exactly how long these few months were?

Hell, I threw 0.15 into CEX out of curiosity, left it in there for a few months, sold it and ended up with 0.23. As a purely mining investment, CEX is awful, but due to the pretty consistent prices, buying, mining for a while and making more than the withdrawl fee will almost certainly net you a profit.

I was just thinking what bbeesley was thinking overnight and I'm glad I found this thread. My logic was that my BTC isn't doing anything in my wallet, so perhaps throwing them into CEX.io would at least get them to work in order to get more BTC. I thought it would make more interest than putting fiat money in the bank. Of course being a n00b I didn't account for the price of GHs dropping over the past 6 months because just like a lot of people see the price has been rather stable in the last month or so.

Thanks guys and Godspeed..

yes, and yes

there was a price bubble a few months ago but the price has stayed reasonably stable for a bit now.  I have an upper cutoff for both the amount I will pay for GHS and how many GHS I will own at any given moment

The price seems to fluctuate mostly down during the period after a difficulty change then rise slowly until the next one, but has remained where it is....which is really low currently...for awhile

of course, everyone here is much smarter than me so my positive cash flow must just be a rookie mistake ;-)

I lost 25% of my BTC holdings because of GHS. Shouldn't have done that...

If you bought GHS and hold them and you made a profit you must have invested very recently and got lucky because it has been mostly going down for months

By storing BTC in cex.io and use them for mining, we get these 2 values:
X = initial ghs buy value
Y = final ghs sell value + mining profit - maintenance fees - risk of cex.io/ghash.io hack or shutdown

if you think Y will be greater than X, go invest on cex. If not, keep them on offline wallet.
The only certain thing is that noone can say which it will be.

Oh God no, don't do that.  Look at the graph for the price over the last 6 months.  It will just keep going down faster than anything you might be mining.  You're basically giving money away to the flippers.  If you're going to get into CEX you HAVE to flip to make a profit.  Otherwise just put your money in cold storage.

I don't see Cex.io as a profit center in it's own right but rather I use it as a place to store some of my BTC

if I have my BTC sitting in a wallet, it earns nothing

if I use some of my BTC to buy GHS then it makes at least some BTC

when and if I need the BTC, I just sell the GHS and withdraw the BTC back to my wallet

I don't have all of my assets in this primarily because I don't want to trust any entity too much lest I get Gox'd

so far, it has worked out positively for me...your mileage may vary.

Not worth the price at all, the price is higher because people don't need to maintain the hardware.

Agree that the price is over-valued per GHS on cex.io but also agree that if your a skilled trader you can more than likely make money trading GHS but you had better know what your doing.  I didn't and ended up losing out overall in the little bit of playing I've done.

cex prices are made by.. the people.

Please, we can't be bothered with numbers and statistical facts.  It just feels good buying a overpriced security and passing it off to another unsuspecting fool

Funny thing : GHS/BTC price is 0.00754.

If I could sell my Antminer S1 for this price, it would go for 0.00754 * 200 = BTC 1.51. Bitmain stopped selling it at BTC 0.409, and now it would have been even cheaper.

CEX' price is so high I would feel bad for the poor buyer if I could sell at that price. Though buying from CEX is even worse. They charge higher maintenance fees than you pay if you run an antminer at home.

The latter is what I'm afraid of. Think Mtgox..

The worst would be to reinvest your revenue in GHS because you will get a fraction of a fraction of the BTC you had

Also there is a risk of losing all your coins if the site closes

CEX won't last long. If you have high prices in a competitive market you will either be forced to lower or lose clients.
There are much better services coming up, you'll see.

For the options you think would happen,
a) they would need much newer hardware so that they can lower the fees.
b) I can say if that happens, I would be owning Phs of hashpower

I didn't say its a guaranteed win, yes the ghs price is way overpriced, however if you play it smart you can be on the positive side.
So far by trading and mining at the same time with the ghs my 2.4BTC have grown into 2.65BTC. When the ghs will start producing negative value (i.e. maintenance fee=0.000013 BTC/day > daily mining output)
then one of the following will happen
a) Cex.io will make the fee much lower such that it makes sense to own ghs
or b) ghs price will drop to 0.

cex.io is always overpriced since the beginning, and you won't ROI on it but might make a profit buying and selling hash.

As a hero member suggested not a long time ago

GHASH CLOUD MINING PROFITABLE 100% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! for the pool

When your shares start producing negative value everyday, your entire plan goes out the window.  Now your "shares" are losing money every day, and the price of "shares" would have to skyrocket well above what you spent to compensate for the fact they essentially have a lean against them.
Your buying gh/s, that should only decrease in value (cex.io doesn't add new hardware for you, like they should in this type of model), the "shares" are losing value by mining with that ghs, and you are expecting to profit somehow?  Thinking you can make profit on cex.io is the same as thinking your going to buy a brand new car, drive it off the lot, and sell it later for more than you paid, can it happen, yes (maybe the ford gt or something), is it likely, no.

I disaggree, you can indeed make profit in cex.io. Its more like an exchange where your shares pay dividend each day.
Assume you buy 1GHS today @ 0.0075BTC.
1GHS makes approx. 0.00003736 BTC/day in today's difficulty. Taking maintenance fee into account:
fee is $0.26/month for 1 GHS
which makes 0.26/660 = 0,00039 BTC/month
which makes 0.000013 BTC/day
So this leaves about 0.0000243BTC/day.
There's also a 0.2% trade fee.

So in order to stay profitable, you could either sell the 1 GHS today for >0.007515 (0.0075 + 0.2%) BTC, or tomorrow for >0.0074907 BTC, or after 2 days for >0.0074664BTC and so on.
Of course these figures will change after each difficulty adjustment, but logic stays the same.
The way I see it, the only thing that makes it a risky investment is the possibility of a website hack/shutdown etc. (think mtgox) since all the coins/ghs are online.

not really a bubble, more like a downward spiral that the value of the GHash will never hit 0, but very close

They charge a very high maintenance fee, the price of GH is dropping quite fast, the withdrawal fee is 0.001. You should have lost a portion of your money.

It took little effort - I earned them with my relatively low powered miner, they made a little extra for me, and in the end I sold them with about 2x ROI on my miner, so it turns out relatively well. Yes, I could have invested BTC in other places and made much more money, but this was a simple scheme requiring little to know effort

I'm not sure why you say it was worth it when you would have earned more if you didn't reinvest into their business model.

There is a reason why they sell their shares instead of mining for themselves, it is impossible to hit ROI , but people won't listen and end up losing BTC when the price went down for the past few months. Most cloud mining will not be likely to hit ROI. They charge you a fee for trading with their overpriced GHS and charge you a high fee to withdraw and the minimum requirement to withdraw is also quite high.

I didn't say they were good, I said which one was the worst. Pb right now I believe I am 0.04 down at the moment (probably will pay off overall), I may have cashed out of havelock with profit, cex.io I ditched within the first two weeks, or less.  Spent roughly 0.1 btc at all of them (I go through gambling phases, and when I win, I blow the money on nonsense lol.) I haven't monitored them really because I honestly didn't give a shit.  All I know is pb and havelock seem legit, and cex.io is a scam.
I never saw pbmining or havelock produce a negative mining balance...... What I have seen is cex.io scamming people from day one, with a bunch of trolls that put referral links in their sigs to get money by scamming others into their bullshit. 
Why does one buy cex.io gh?  To dump on someone else for higher.  If that isn't the plan please let me know how your increasing your btc by mining there.

I was mining on the ghash.io site for a while do to its good statistics and data, then buying ghs with the BTC I earned to give more more mining power while i sat on them, rather than leaving them in a wallet. Didn't make me much, but it was stil worth it

Well I believe that is their business model.  They were in effect selling the work that other miners did at a higher price than it was worth.  If you mined or are mining there, you are the power that they were/are selling.

How else could they afford to operate with 0% fee?

Well they will have their profits (which I'm not against) and somebody will be left with nearly worthless shares

At lest I can take comfort in that someday the bubble will burst and all GHS will go to zero. Due to the rather high maintenance fee it should happen quite soon.

When this happens it will no longer make sense to operate Ghash pool at a loss (I think they did because some of the mining revenues went to CEX/GHS - which must have been extremely profitable)

CEX pricing has been like this since day 1.  It is well known that it is overpriced, at least for anybody who can do rudimentary math. Most people buying/selling on there end up trading in hopes of selling to somebody else for a higher price (greater fool concept).

If you're going to trade, you might as well trade on an exchange...

A casino has better odds than CEX' GHS. You are likely to lose in either case, but the Casino gives you better odds and you won't jeopardize this greatest monetary experiment.

What great bitcoin wisdom advice here....'Better play roulette' 'I advise you to play at a casino'

OP, if you buy any cloud mining contract and sit back and do nothing you are unlikely to come away happy. If you have the time to educate yourself a bit about what you are getting into then perhaps you can profit or at least learn something. With CEX and GHS you are buying a trade-able asset with a very liquid market, which also happens to generate dividends in the shape of mining returns once you have bought them.
GHS pricing has been downwards for months pretty much inverse to difficulty increasing, however that relationship has disconnected for the past 6 weeks or so as GHS pricing (in its market has found a bottom area and remained above that and slightly trending upwards).

thresher says CEX was the first one of 3 he pulled out of due to high costs on 'their shit scam site' but what he didn't tell you is that his PB money is completely gone as it can never be 'pulled out' and with Havelock the liquidity is so low good luck getting that out at a price you'd like.

Again educate yourself a bit about what it is you are buying into and the reasons for doing it and make sure you have an exit strategy as well as an entry.

Maybe a month or two ago I experimented with minmal amounts of btc on pb mining, havlock, and cex.io.

Cex.io was the first one I pulled out of when my btc balance started becoming negative from mining.......its not like cex.io wasn't taking their cut of the profits, just trying to bill me extra for mining on their shit scam site.

forget cloud mining generally, and cex.io especially
we can't make profit from it
since bitcoin difficulty skyrocketing every 12 days, it will make our profit from cloud mining fewer every day
don't forget cex.io maintenance fee, it's too high
and their GHS price is overpriced!
stay away from it

The game you are playing is not so different from this:

http://youtu.be/gkwosOW181Y - China soldiers pass 'live grenade' in training exercise

Normally I wouldn't care but the fact that you mess up Bitcoin saddens me.

I advise you to play at a casino instead.

Don't forget that you can sell your GHS after you are done with mining And the price of GHS haven't moved much the last month

This is the definition of a bubble 
Yes, you can trade and make a profit, but over all it is a negative sum game. Better play roulette and get 95 cents back for every dollar on average. You are more likely to win there too.

Even worse, by speculating in GHS you enable miners to use Ghash at no fee. I think they actually accept miners for free because some miners convert their revenues to GHS.

If you buy a mining contract and hold it, then it probably won't be profitable because you will end up with less bitcoins than the amount you put in. If that is your goal, then I agree it would be better to simply hodl the bitcoins themselves and your calculations seem to support this conclusion.

What you are forgetting is that you can profit by trading the mining contracts themselves.

CEX.io is overpriced and its well kown fact for techies. But for people desperate to invest in mining this is the only option and hence they are gambling. For instance, I know one blonde, who is in r/GirlsGoneBitcoin and earning from private shows, investing whatever she's earning into CEX.io for a mirracle to happen that will eventually pay her mortgage.

I open CEX.io and find this rather confusing price:

GHS/BTC = 0.00747 which is the equivalent to THS/BTC = 7.47 = 4.487 USD

So you need to pay more than 7 BTC for one TH/s? It does not make sense at all. Here's why:

Currently one TH/s generates BTC 1.12 per month = 667 USD.

Don't forget maintenance. One TH/s costs 260 USD per month, reducing the profit to 407 USD, so it takes 11 months to break even. With difficulty increases it will surely never happen.

Am I right?