Topic: CH (CoinHoarder) Index (Read 1191 times)

Hi!

I almost forgot about this thread.

IMO... not bad considering I didn't make any adjustments. I think I could have done better with active management.



Some commentary:

- I think this bear market will be much shorter than the previous year+ long bear markets due to the amount of $$$ waiting on the sidelines that's chomping at the bit to get in. This money will see the large correction and assume (correctly) that now is the best time to get into the game.
- I think I focused too much on diversification. If I would have stuck to a smaller number of quality projects, then I think I would have fared better (something like BTC/LTC/ETH/XMR/BTS... which have been my top 5 for a long time now). The VC-like "spray and pray" approach is probably not optimal for forming a crypto portfolio because the mid/low caps have a high amount of risk/uncertainty.
- It is no surprise that the coins that appreciated the most have a working product, decent network effect, are generally accepted as being legit on a technical basis, started out as medium/large caps, and they all have good reputations on Bitcointalk... which is still where I think the most knowledgeable alt coiners conversate most (you just have to filter through a lot of B.S., but it is more organized than Twitter- with the same amount of B.S.)
- If I were to remake the CH Index now, then I would leave a majority of these coins off the list and replace them with newer more promising coins (things move fast in cryptoland).

So whats this look like one year later?

4+ Month Update:



Market Still Bullish:
The market is still not showing any signs of slowing down, and has remained bullish throughout. I thought a couple times it was possible that the rally was ending, but buy support has remained strong throughout as a whole.

CH Index Performance
Not much has changed since the last update, the ALT coin bull market has continued to help push the profitability of the CH index above holding Bitcoin alone, but holding only Litecoin or Ethereum (among others) still outperformed the index. It is to be expected that some single coin portfolios will outperform the index with every update, as some are sure to be pumped here or there. I expect this difference to even out as more time goes by, and eventually for the fund to outperform most single coin portfolios.

Biggest Winners:
Blocknet (BLOCK) +3642.92%
Bitshares (BTS) +1463.11%
Obits (OBITS) +1048.01%
Iconomi (ICN) +651.68%
Ethereum (ETH) +577.17%

Two Chains In The Top 5:
Bitshares (and Bitshares asset OBITS) along with Ethereum (and Ethereum asset ICN) both performed in the top 5, as far as percentage gained, since the inception of the index. Ethereum may not be that surprising to most, but to me Bitshares and Obits is slightly surprising. Perhaps decentralized exchanges are gaining traction. There have been a lot of DEX ICOs recently, which perhaps leads investors to look into already existing DEXs and come across Bitshares and Obits. And also there is probably some interest coming from the EOS hype and its investors.

Blocknet Getting More Risky?
Blocknet continues to outperform most of the cryptocurrencies in the index. I think "networking" blockchains will be an important service in the future, but lately I am not sure if Blocknet will be the solution that wins out. I would say it is an uphill battle, but still possible for it to continue its upward trajectory and earn a spot in the "blockchain networking" space. Things like the Lightning Network, and many other competing ICO/alternative cryptocurrency projects are competing with similar ideas, so I am starting to see more risk in Blocknet than before. The Lightning Network now exists (or is imminent) on several major chains which could render "networking chains" useless. On the last CH Index update, Segwit had just been activated on Litecoin, but support on Bitcoin was low and it looked like it wouldn't be activated. A lot has changed since then, and Segwit was activated on Bitcoin. Cross chain atomic swaps in between Lightning-Network-enabled coins will eventually come to fruition. Perhaps consider taking some profits on Blocknet. Considering it is at +3642.92% since the inception of the CH Fund, I would consider taking at least some profits on it.

Biggest Losers:
zClassic (ZCL) -56.44%
Noblecoin (NOBLE) -8.04%

zClassic has fallen quite a bit since the last update. It was not even on last update's biggest losers list. Its performance is surprising to me, because it is essentially zCash with a more fair ecosystem (no 20% founder's block fee). There is more competition with zCash forks now than there was. I know of at least one more (HUSH), and this could be part of the reason its valuation has decreased. There also seem to be some concerns that no one is actively developing zClassic recently in the zClassic ANN thread.

Noblecoin has rebounded quite a bit from the last update (it was -58.35%), but has still performed negatively since the inception of the CH fund. Without the Poloniex delisting, I think it would have gained valuation. I expect the coin to rebound further, similar to the way Nushares rebounded from the Poloniex delisting because the original reasons for investing in Noblecoin still ring true, even if there is one less exchange to trade it on.

Revisiting The Cryptocurrencies I Was Reconsidering:

Pepecash (PEPE) (from +98.35% to +207.96%)
Nexus (NXS) (from +90.20% to +471.92%)
PIVX (PIVX) (from +56.53% to +124.24%)
vTorrent (VTR) (from +5.43% to +22.77%)

The cryptocurrencies I was questionable about on the last update all actually gained in value since the last CH Index update. The market can be foolish though, and for the most part I stand by my criticism of the projects. I am still evaluating them, and will leave them in the CH Index at this time, but I would look to transition out of them in the near future. 3/4ths of them performed worse than my baseline (a pure BTC portfolio- or +252.03%), so switching them out would have probably increased the performance of my portfolio.

Importance Of Diversity
My portfolio's performance highlights the amount of risk in alternative cryptocurrencies. Exactly half of the coins in my portfolio are performing better than the baseline investment (a 100% Bitcoin investment) and the other half are performing worse than the baseline investment. If you only picked 1 of these cryptocurrencies to invest in, then you were 50/50 to perform better or worse than Bitcoin. By diversifying your portfolio as I have done, I believe this risk is mitigated, and so far my portfolio has performed almost on par with a Bitcoin investment, but at the same time it still has a chance to outperform such in the long term.

1 Month Update:


Analysis:

Cryptocurrency Bull Market:
The cryptocurrency market remained bullish throughout the month. Pretty much any portfolio of any decent cryptocurrencies should of seen decent gains. I expect the rug to be pulled out from under the crypto markets soon. Definitely by the end of the year, more likely in the next few months, and even more likely in one months time or sooner. When the crypto market overall starts to adjust downward, I think you should be hesitant to buy on the way down and wait for it to fully bottom, as prices could go much lower than they are today in a years time.

CH Index Performance
The ALT coin bull market helped push the profitability of the CH index above holding Bitcoin alone, but holding only Litecoin or Ethereum (among others) outperformed the index. It is to be expected that some single coin portfolios will outperform the index with every update, as some are sure to be pumped here or there. I expect this difference to even out as more time goes by, and eventually for the fund to outperform most single coin portfolios.

Biggest Winners:
Bitshares (BTS) +568.21%
Blocknet (BLOCK) +445.03%
Dogecoin (DOGE) +242.78%
Ardor (ARDR) +232.08%
Litecoin (LTC) +195.96%

3 out of the 5 biggest winners (Bitshares, Dogecoin, and Litecoin) are some of the older and more established ALT coins which had not yet been pumped too high in this ALT coin bull market. It was only a matter of time before they caught up with the rest of the ALTs. I would however caution buying at the top of these pumps, as what goes up will eventually go down. Really, the entire market is due for a correction.

Bitshares gained quite a bit of traction after their original developer Dan announced his new project named EOS. Jokingly referred to as Ethereum On Steroids, it is a synchronous smart contract platform which will process smart contracts more efficiently than any other currently existing solution. Details are scarce at this point. Other than that, Bitshares has also matured over the years with more volume on its DEX and more market makers providing market depth. I think the main reason for this is that market maker bots are starting to be publicly released, whereas in the past they have been run privately by individuals. I still remain long term bullish on Bitshares. Although I do not think Bitshares' DEX will end up being the most popular DEX due to it only trading derivatives and exchange-held assets, I still think bitUSD could prove to be its "killer feature". bitUSD's main competitor Tether is slowly losing market confidence and having issues due to its centralized nature. A crypto dollar derivative will become a valuable feature once real DEXs come to fruition and gain in popularity.

Blocknet has been flying under the radar until the past month. It is an older coin which has just recently begun to near the finish line with decentralized cryptocurrency to cryptocurrency exchanges on their test net. At present time, you need to download the full blockchain and wallet of each coin you want to trade and enter the RPC information. This is obviously rudimentary and inconvenient, but it is only a proof of concept. By utilizing SPV wallets and/or multicoin SPV wallets and/or integrating other coins' SPV wallets in with the Blocknet wallet, this inconvenience can be overcome. This project is still a long ways out from being usable enough to be popular enough to gain a decent amount of market depth and liquidity. However, I think this is one of the most undervalued ALT coins out there today and remain very bullish on the coin. I think this is the best DEX project out there, and besides that, Blocknet can empower many other things rather than just a DEX by allowing different blockchains to communicate with eachother.

Dogecoin recently caught up to the rest of the ALT coin bull market this past month. I don't have much to say about it, but I think it is still a decent investment. It reminds me of Litecoin back in the day... it is not super useful, but it has a fair distribution, a huge community, and is well established at this point. It was released during a time of many pump and dump scam coins, and Dogecoin has stood the test of time well. Meanwhile 99% of the other coins that were released during this time period have been dumped to page 9999 of coin market cap. Coins that stick around like this and don't die have a good chance of being more valuable one day (kind of like Litecoin after activating Segwit.) I am not sure what Dogecoin's purpose will be in the future crypto ecosystem, but I think the dog will eventually find its way home and its purpose will be realized sooner or later.

Ardor is a more efficient and scalable reincarnation of the well established Nxt coin. Although Ardor does not yet exist, over the past month Ardor has been extensively tested on its test net and an initial public release seems imminent. To be honest... of the 5 best performing coins in the CH index during the past month, I am least bullish on Ardor. I am not sure scalability alone is a good enough feature to make an ALT coin valuable. Mainly because this space is heavily contested. There are many projects which are working to solve the same issues. Ardor will also have all of the features Nxt has, but these features were not enough to keep Nxt towards the front of the pack either. Most of the features in Nxt are half baked, and it seems to me that they were more interested in adding as many features as possible for marketing purposes rather than focusing on one or a few of those features and doing them exquisitely well. I still think it has potential, but if I had to cull my portfolio by 5 or so coins, then I don't think Ardor would make the cut.

Litecoin was boosted quite a bit by the successful activation of Segwit. Before Segwit activation, market sentiment and the community's expectations for Litecoin was nearing an all time low, but I think Segwit activation has really solidified Litecoin's place as a top contender for one of the best ALT coins. I think interest from buyers will continue once Segwit and the Lightning Network are active on the Litecoin main net, and remain overall bullish on the long term prospect of Litecoin. LN/Segwit also allow for a lot of cool features that will spark more interest in Litecoin as they are released into the wild.

Biggest Losers:
Noblecoin (NOBL) -68.96%
Nushares (NSR) -58.35%

Both of these coins were highly affected by the recent Poloniex delistings. I think they both would have performed around the median of all the coins in the index if they both had not been affected in this way. Even in this crazy bull market there were two losers in my portfolio, which I think highlights the necessity of diversifying an ALT coin portfolio. Putting all your eggs in one basket can end up disastrous for your crypto investment. I think it is important to have a stop loss on coins in your portfolio also, and these two have reached mine. I am now bearish on the longterm prospect of Noblecoin and Nushares.

Coins I Am Reconsidering:
Pepecash (PEPE):

I initially saw value in Pepecash due to two factors. I saw a resemblance of Dogecoin in Pepecash, and I like that it is deflationary due to coins being burned when people buy rare pepes. I am starting to reconsider my position on Pepecash though, as I think the Pepe meme is not nearly as popular or widespread as the Doge meme. Due to that, even with a deflationary supply, I am not sure that long term demand will remain for Pepecash. A cryptocurrency simply being deflationary is not enough for it to rise in value. Cryptocurrencies must sustain demand to increase in value (deflationary or not), and I'm not sure if demand for Pepecash is sustainable. Consider me bearish on Pepecash at the moment, but I haven't completely made up my mind one way or the other on it.

Nexus (NXS):

The idea of providing free internet which runs via cube satellites in space and mesh networks is novel and a great idea. And tying Nexus into that equation could prove to be lucrative. However, the idea itself seems a little far fetched and I am not sure it will ever come to fruition the way it is advertised. Even still, if it does actually come to fruition then I think it will be one of the biggest successes of the crypto industry. It will either moonshot or fall on its face and lose all of its value. Right now I am leaning towards the latter, but who knows what will happen. I think it is an OK coin to have in your portfolio, but I would only consider having it as a very small percentage of your portfolio. I am near term bearish until this project starts showing signs that it can deliver on its road map.

PIVX

I am starting to become more and more convinced that this was a pump and dump. There were many people speaking its praises on its rise up after the ICO, but most of those people seem to have disappeared by now. Furthermore, Dash tech is not really the creme of the crop anyways. At least it is much more fairer than Dash, so we will see what happens. I will remain bearish on PIVX in the meantime.

vTorrent

Although it is a good idea, I am not fully convinced that the developer of vTorrent has the shareholder's best interests in mind. There is very little communication and proof that he has actually developed what he claims to have developed thus far. All he has provided are a few screenshot here and there, and screenshots and/or dummy interfaces are quite easy to create. It is possible that he does not have any innovative developments implemented at all, and is just stringing along the community so he can sell tokens at a higher value. Until open source software is released I will remain bearish on this project.

@torry28

Good answers! Props on your reading comprehension. 😁

Why you care answering to him? It seems like the forum is now flooded with people that don't care (or are not able to) read. 🙁

[1]It's his portfolio of course, Do you think it's his friend's portfolio?
[2]He already said if he will hold this for long-term (see post in OP) and he doesn't want to sell it (he will always update his portfolio monthly)
[3]I'm sure he won't sell his altcoins. This is not strategy, OP made this for entertainment purpose only.

youre write is realy , youre portofilo ?
how long target in hold coin ?, how much percentage profit every coin can sell it ?
and how much cut lost, i want follow youre investment strategy in altcoin

That would be great! I would be willing to participate. When I made this post, I hoped at least a few others might join in. It would certainly make it more fun, and I would be interested to see what others would put in their portfolio.

I already realized I made a mistake, as I meant to only put 2% in Monero and the remaining 2% somewhere else. Oh well, I think Monero is decently more promising than some of the other 2% coins where I can justify the extra 2%!  

#2 would make things more complicated. I guess I prefer #1

This would make for quite an interesting game, wouldn't it. Suggestion:

Let's open a thread, where everyone has a given timeframe (let's say a week) to post a hypothetical portfolio of – whatever, 1 BTC worth of coins (maximum number 12 coins, less are allowed). After one year (and maybe at some points in time in between), we check who made the most plus and who didn't*.

Why not simply buy and hold, you ask?

Mostly  for entertainment purposes, of course.

And because this would be the place to make gutsy make or break bets you wouldn't do in real life.

If you want to get stuff out of it, feel free to place some bets (or buy your picks)


*There would be two ways of calculating it:

1.: We check prices after exactly one year

2.: We assume, that everyone was smart enough to sell at the peak, so we take the highest price within the given timeframe (I like this version better)

 – both either against BTC or $

I will add a field to compare the performance of the fund to Bitcoin's performance on the next update.

Cheers

very interesting long term portfolio, i'll make sure to follow it.

one question though:
why are you reporting the amounts in USD instead of BTC? majority of the altcoins and most of your list don't even have a USD market and we can only buy them with BTC and price is also determined based on BTC.

what i mean is, when their price goes down and bitcoin price goes up, their USD value may stay the same and be misleading.
for example X is worth 0.001BTC equal to $1.17 at $1170 bitcoin value.
if X gets dumped down to 0.000936BTC and bitcoin goes up to $1250, X is still worth $1.17
so your portfolio shows no loss.

but in reality you have lost 0.000064BTC per coin or $0.08 (or better say missed on that profit).

To be clear, this is just for fun... to see how the index performs. Although my portfolio closely resembles this, I do not have exact percentages of anything, nor do I have exactly a $100 bankroll.

To maintain exact percentages would be too big of a PITA, especially when adding more FIAT capital into the portfolio. Maybe when Iconomi comes out, and if the fund is performing well, then I will create an exact replica of the fund on there because it will be much easier to maintain.

I prefer cold wallets for storage, unless something needs staking to earn interest.

This is interesting $100 experiment. Are you holding them in a single exchange or in multiple offline wallets?

As of 8/20/17:
Analysis: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.21052011


As of 5/8/2017:
Analysis: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18934464


As of 4/8/2017:


Reasoning:
10% of portfolio or greater = Established cryptocurrency, very likely to grow in value
4% of portfolio = Deflationary tokens with utility which will create (at least minimal) demand, plus Monero
2% of portfolio = Has good potential of growth