Topic: [CHALLENGE] Who wants to be a millionaire ? (Read 793 times)

My mistake, you're right. I don't know why I'm confusing bank/profit.

It looks like there were a fairly low amount of shots/attempts for Cambuur-Nijmegen. Probably would have been painful to watch!


NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie last 50 matches
interesting to see cluster luck... how 0:0 score happens more than once on same day... wonder if weather or schedule or something?

All 0:0 matches in last 50:



01/11, 15:00
Cambuur - Nijmegen correct score market 0:0 betfair @15.00
01/11, 15:00
Graafschap - Excelsior correct score market 0:0 betfair @19.00
25/10, 14:00
G.A. Eagles - Den Bosch correct score market 0:0 betfair @15.00
18/10, 14:00
Maastricht - Excelsior correct score market 0:0 betfair @13.00
18/10, 14:00
Den Bosch - Roda correct score market 0:0 betfair @12.00
11/10, 14:45
Maastricht - Cambuur correct score market 0:0 betfair @15.00
04/10, 14:00
Graafschap - Almere City correct score market 0:0 betfair @17.00

If you risked 1 on 0:0 correct score at betfair last 50 matches in eerste divisie
risk....  50
won.... 15+19+15+13+12+15+17=106
profit... 56
roi.....  112%

If only it were that easy to look back and follow a trend. Doubt this will happen for the next 50 matches...
Interesting to see the odds movement on the 0:0 correct score odds... bet down quite a bit some cases... @12.00 really?

There's probably a better process to figure out if a team is more or less likely to go scoreless. I guess if you follow lineups closely, maybe top scorers could be out/injured/. It's cold there this time of year, but I'm not sure what impact the weather has on scoring, but I doubt it's simple to figure out. https://www.soccermetrics.net/league-competitions/temperature-vs-goals-study-premier-league

---
Pinnacle just put out a good article on predicting 0:0 draws:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/inflating-or-deflating-the-chance-of-a-draw-in-soccer/CGE2JP2SDKV3A9R5

Probably yes, but will take a bit of a break. It's quite some fun doing it, but it's way harder to find suitable bets than one might think.


It is and should be 0,00. At the start of this challenge the bank was 100,00. It grew to 144,22 and those 144,22 were lost with the last bet and now the bank is 0,00.



I wasn't able to watch the match of Cambuur, so can't really judge, if it was a boring match with few action or if it was just one of those days where nothing would go in and goal posts were like 2m wide Funny side note is, that I first thought about taking Grafschaap with lay 0-0 again as I previously did, but decided for Cambuur as they were scoring heavily at home so far. Grafschaap game ended 0-0 as well. All other NED2 games didn't finish 0-0 that day.

Boxing and MMA could work, but I am just not into these sports. From what I know, there is only fights in the weekends as well and that is too few. I wouldn't touch "no overtime" bets in NBA and for NFL those games that are very unlikely to go to overtime, the odds are just 1,01 and you need average odds of 1,02 for this challenge. You can get higher odds for "no overtime", but then the teams are quite balanced and for me personally this is too risky then.

Tennis could work, but season is basically over for now and the events in Shenzhen for womens and Paris for the mens only featured the best of the best, so no low odds.

The bets I still like most for this kind of challenge are found in Handball and Volleyball. Preferrably women teams at home.


Most bets only had 2 outcomes: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52953525

To be expected...sooner or later
That was nice run 11 wins, but so far from million. Imagine if it was on 111 or later.

Better tactics would be if you withdraw some profit at specific period, and bet on sports where there is no draw... like tennis

It was a good run! Nothing to be ashamed of. Will you try again? I guess the only other question is should the bank be 0.00 or -144.22?

It's interesting to look (in hindsight) how often Cambuur-Nijmegen seem to draw. In their last 14 matches against each other, more than half (57%) were draws. https://www.flashscore.com/match/Qkr4cIVJ/#h2h;overall Also, their last four matches between each other were all draws. In their last 5 games Cambuur have had 3 draws, two of them were 0-0.

Cambuur, being top of the table, probably have better defense than other teams. They've only let in 8 goals on the year. Their goals for/goals against is 30:8. Maybe if doing the lay 0-0 strategy it would be better on teams with high goals for/against like Jong Ajax (36:18) https://www.flashscore.com/match/Qkr4cIVJ/#standings;table;overall or identifying teams like this in other leagues that score while having a leaky defense. Or choosing leagues that appear to have the most goals to lay 0:0 https://www.soccervista.com/soccer_leagues_ordered_by_number_of_goals.php Netherlands average is pretty high though (Netherlands-Eredivisie-3.38 goals per game avg).

I think it would be interesting to try this strategy with a few other bet types

Heavy favorites in boxing or MMA, in situations where an easy fight is setup to show off a prospect
Betting against overtime occurring in the NBA/NFL
Betting on tennis heavy favorites to win set handicap of +1.5

Most of the bets had only 2 outcomes For the last lost bet, it's either 0-0 or not^^ And I played 1X and X2 in football, which only has 2 outcomes as well. Same for Volleyball and Basketball ML bets, they just play until there is a winner, there is no draw.

Individual sports are not good for low odds imo, because you are relying on just ONE athlete and every human being has a bad day every now and then - and there is the possibility of injury too. If Ronaldo has a bad day, the other players can still compensate it, not possible if you bet on an individual athlete. In tennis you could think about laying the underdog 3-0 in Grand Slams, as the bet is voided when there is a retirement. But that still doesn't protect you from a strong favourite having an absolute off-day.

Just asking wasn't better to try to bet on something with only 2 outputs?

I mean, if you can find something where it can be only x or y instead of x or y or z that's should reduce the possibility of the crazy event during the game.

For example, on a Tennis match, you can never draw while on a football match (aka soccer for Americans) you can have 1 or X or 2 as results.

GG!

As I said earlier 1 loss then all of winnings been wiped out.11 wins straight is a good run though but its okay man since
this is just an experimental as you said.On next time, you should at least making some multiple selections of low odd bets
than having a single at least you do able to divide the risk and wont completely shut down with one loss.

LOST

Bank: 0,00 Euro
W-L: 11-1
Average odds: 1,03

Rather few goals in NED2 today everywhere. Will have to fine tune the bet selection and be probably back with another try soon.

Awaiting the shitstorm now

I understand your point and I never said that it is impossible to win by betting on odds like 1.01 in the short term or long term, but it is way more difficult and stressful when compared to betting on odds like 1.6 or higher.

I find it easier to bet on high odds and win more often when compared to betting on low odds. However, I wish you the best in your endeavor.

I post the current balance always with every new bet You can see all the bets I have played so far in the first post, I edit regularly.


Will be hard with only NBA and/or PBA. I actually think NBA is undoable, because a) the teams are not that far apart quality wise and b) one single game doesn’t count that much, when you have 80+ games per season. You must be ultra selective and will probably have to do that for years. Not a lot of people have that discipline and stamina.
I am not into PBA, but mens Basketball in general is not easy for “bankers”.
But anyway good luck if you give it a try.


I do, yes. There can be value in any odds, 1,01, 1,30, 2,50, 1000. Problem with low odds is, that you just don’t win that much with a single bet, but value is value.
Back in the days there was a guy in a betting forum, that only played low odds (in fact he was actually trading, but you have to look for value as well, when trading) and he was pretty successful doing it. He once posted a screenshot of his winnings (all amounts in Euro):



He of course had a huge bank and the markets were pretty imperfect in those days, but it still shows, that it is possible to be successful with low odds. You can be successful with any kind of odds and sports, if you put in the work.


WON

Bank: 144,22 Euro
W-L: 11-0
Average odds: 1,03

#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair

Cambuur pretty spectacular home side this season, 5-0/3-2/5-1/4-0/5-1 have been their scores so far. Nijmegen managed to keep a clean sheet in their last league match at Jong AZ, lets see, if they can do it back to back. Even if they do, there is still the possibility that they themselves score to make this bet a winner.

This guy doesn't have an idea on how to differentiate the odds between a typical dice game and a sport betting one. He do just directly

make some conclusions basing into those basic principles that he do know.Ive seen that OP is doing pretty well but reaching 4 digit to 5 digit
capital would really be hard.1 loss then all of the hard work been done would be come to waste.So choosing up wisely everytime on making a bet.
Low odds doesn't mean 100% win.

lool . failing ? i know its possible if you play with higher multipliers ex. 99999xxx and your winning chance will only be 0.000001xxx or lower the higher the multiplier is but if your lucky you can hit it and win big as soon as you also bet a little bigger  .

yes it is applicable on all type of gambling games  including dice  . you dont need to hit exact 100 btc to be a millionaire because on some countries the exchange rate of btc to fiat is already high  . you can be a milionaire if you have a few btc .  btc/crypto is  really a good medium for gambling because their potential is high  .

It is not the same thing, Dice game is based on math and in a very long number of runs for reducing the variance to a value more near possible to Zero you will get the mathematical value of the game.
In betting is different since is not only math but the human factor is a fact.

Also, consider that 97% on dice will be always a 97% of winning while 97% on betting can be a for example with 100€ a 102€ or a 103€ of return depending on the bookmaker's odds.

Nice to see a thread with someone who knows he has a 99.9999999% chance of failing hehe (sorry if I miss out any 9s;) ).

You know,,, you could just do this on dice too, right? Instead of betting with fiat, bet with satoshi, maybe you will not be a millionaire but if you can win 100 BTC, you will essentially be a millionaire;)

Do you see value in something like 1.02 or 1.05 odds? I experimented on something similar before just like you and everything went well for sometime until something shocking happened and I lost everything(Was a small amount luckily).

Luck did not favor me. I advise pulling out as soon as you reach $1000(If luck favors you) since a million in this way is way too difficult.

So far the challenge is working very well. I will follow this thread. Now I'm thinking of doing the same too but using a small amount of Bitcoin only. Like 0.001 BTC and will play on basketball only like NBA or PBA .

Best thread I have seen this in board so far, I might give this a try myself in next year's ipl.

So far so good, let's see how your resolve holds when the balance grows to a significant amount.

Would be nice if you could add your current balance so we can see how well you have done.

You must be on around $130+ now right?

I see that this is going really well until now and I think I will follow your bets with 10 dollars bets instead of 100 and see what happens.I of course wish you become a millionaire because if you do I would be doing well too so let’s see how it goes.

Could you elaborate on that, please ? Isn't it the value that counts ?


If I lose a bet before getting to one million, this challenge has failed of course and will be stopped. But I will probably give it a new try with a new thread then


WON

Bank: 129,93 Euro
W-L: 10-0
Average odds: 1,03

Nothing for today, so I'll already post the bet for tomorrow, which I had in my book since last weekend.

#11 l Basketball l GER1 l Ludwigsburg vs Hamburg l Ludwigsburg ML l 1,11 l 129,93 l Betsson

Hamburg by far the poorest team qualitywise in German Basketball league. Most of their guys are just too weak for this league. Ludwigsburg has very nice team this year, especially their backcourt is super strong. Ludwigsburg is just superior on every position, so I see easy home win.

Wow, I am amazed but your winning streak, man you are still in a run and I think you'll have to celebrate after 10 wins, you are just one win away.
To be frank, this is really a hard mission, and if you keep winning, you might be tested pretty well once you are close to victory.

Are you planning to stop the experiment if your streak will be broken?

Honestly, this is pointless op. Higher odds are always better than low odds and history has proven that with literally every sport. Low odds are just a psychological way of assuring yourself that you will never lose and I have been there.

This is the same as betting on x1.01 multiplier in gambling though research improves the odds in sports betting. Instead, I would focus on trying to stitch together a 10-round 2.0 odds accumulator by betting a single dollar which would not require a ton of time and it is far more entertaining.

WON

Bank: 126,84 Euro
W-L: 9-0
Average odds: 1,03

#10 l Football l MLS l Atlanta vs Toronto l lay 0-2 (@40) l 1,02 l 126,84 l Betfair

Conference Final. Atlanta never fails to score at home, while Toronto struggles most of the time to keep a clean sheet. Atlanta has their faboulous four (Martinez, Martinez, Barco, Gressel) available for this match, while Toronto's Jozy Altidore is still questionable with a squad strain. Even if he will return to the pitch today, he won't be at 100% and Toronto will most likely keep on struggling offensively.

ευχαριστώ, way to go indeed


WON

This was pretty close and probably a poor choice. Bochum was in front until 83rd minute. Better to stick with home teams in the end, cup matches and away teams are recipe for disaster

Bank: 123,15 Euro
W-L: 8-0
Average odds: 1,03

#9 l Volleyball l GER1 l BR Volleys - Eltmann l BR Volleys ML l 1,03 l 123,15 l Bet365

BR Volleys are pretty solid side in Germany, always among Top3 in recent years. Eltmann promoted this season and managed to get their first win of the season in the last round in convincing fashion with 3-0 sets. Nevertheless there is always huge quality difference between well established top teams and freshly promoted teams in these leagues. Eltmann can maybe snatch a set, but that should be it.

GL bro! I didnt see your challenge until now and whats funny about it - First thing I saw was todays Bayern pick and minutes before that I saw they were still 1-0 behind. Way to go but I can already smell the Million!

WON

Bank: 119,56 Euro
W-L: 7-0
Average odds: 1,03

Nothing caught my attention yesterday, so better not to rush things.

#8 l Football l CUPGER l Bochum vs Bayern l Bayern X2 l 1,03 l 119,56 l Betago

Unless this is fixed, I can't see Bochum winning inside 90 minutes. They will give a good fight and probably score 1-2 goals, but Bayern is just Bayern.

Six straight wins and going to the seventh if this game also turned into the winning list. Not bad doing your strategy, it's doable indeed though same with the thoughts that possible upset can happened but with your good understanding and right choices of games to bet, it would be an interesting run to follow. Good luck to you and keep sharing those quality pick that you'll going to bet with.

WON

Bank: 116,28 Euro
W-L: 6-0
Average odds: 1,03

#7 l Football l ENG1 l Liverpool vs Tottenham l lay 0-1 (@34) l 1,03 l 116,28 l Betfair

WON

Bank: 114,00 Euro
W-L: 5-0
Average odds: 1,03

#6 l Handball l SWE1 l Skanela vs Bodens l Skanela win l 1,02 l 114,00 l  Expekt

You can also try some live games betting... if you follow some games or fights
Odds can be low and you have better odds to win

And here we go:

No. In general I would be careful with low odds in Basketball, unless you know your stuff. If I had to touch low odds in Basketball without deeper knowledge about the teams and league, I would look for home teams in womens Basketball in smallish leagues.

So you do say that you would exclude out womens basketball out of your selections?
Seems like this one would follow  on the first one.

Looks like one team already layed an egg



Those short odds in Basketball are not worth it anyway imo, unless you really know those teams and have some information about injuries, motivation etc. Every now and then a team has a streaky shooting day, where they basically can't miss and the other team has an off-day. Nothing to do about that then. I would only thouch those kind of odds in womens Basketball (and for home teams).

The challenge is actually a form of a combination bet, it's very similar. It's known as a mechanical parlay. What is this? With a normal parlay you'd choose X amount of games and add them to your bet slip. This is all fine and dandy, but what if you wanted to combine future events with no odds posted, or combine props that are normally not allowed? A mechanical parlay is where you place one bet and roll the winnings into consecutive bets. For example, say you wanted to create a parlay betting against the (absolutely atrocious) Miami Dolphins in the NFL for their first five games. Another example of this is if you took a player in a tennis tournament, say Rafa Nadal at Roland-Garros (where he is dominant), and bet on him to win every match, rolling the winnings into the next match. This may pay out more than betting on Nadal outright in futures to win the tournament.

Agreed, it's definitely a long shot to make 10,000X on any investment. This is essentially a 466 leg parlay, each leg with 1.02 avg odds. So far so good though, 0.8% towards the goal. I'd hold off on deciding which island to purchase: https://www.privateislandsonline.com/ Praia do Algodão looks like a nice place to settle

He can divide if the capital reaches even with 4 digits to speed up the process somehow.Even though winnings aren't really that big
compared on on spot one bet but this way do lessen up the risk on losing up all the amounts he hardly able to reach.This will take time
if we do decide to stick up with this odds.Slowly but surely? Most likely but as said where theres no guarantee on winning anytime even on the
smallest odd where you do bet.

I would split the bet up rather just one amount one bet.  'how easy it is to become a millionaire with betting'   Never thought this because the odds have to be against me for the house or operation running the game to make a profit but the only way I know is to place a bet and lay away the risk then benefit from various bonus offers given.   Otherwise its just a case of spotting odds where the crowd is wrong, glory supporting a big team or something which is at least occasionally possible; none of that adds upto a plan for a million really and I dont see a low risk route to that except by guessing really long odds on a combination bet.
  

Great going bro, already you reach four steps in goal and i wish you reach your final step as soon as possible, and here my sad story just now happened where I placed a bet in Southampton VS Leicester game 1st half goals totals under 4.5 selected odds as 1.15 but I lose my bet in final two minutes.

WON

Bank: 109,57 Euro
W-L: 4-0
Average odds: 1,02

#5 l Am. Football l NCAAF l Alabama+Clemson l Home win parlay l 1,04 l 109,57 l Leonbets

#1 and #2 ranked teams at home against unranked teams. Handicap for both over -30. Since both games start nearly at the same time and Leonbets has highest odds for both (some bookies don't even offer ML) one can parlay these two, which I will do. Can't see any upset here, though miracles happen from time to time in College Football

Three wins in a row, this is expected at 1.02 odds.

Once you get to a couple dozen wins in a row you'll be beating the odds.

That being said, if you somehow manage to pull this off and make $1 million while recording your bets in this thread religiosly, this thread will go down in history as one of the most epic on Bitcointalk.

Good luck, you will need it.

WON

Bank: 107,10 Euro
W-L: 3-0
Average odds: 1,02

#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair

Over 0,5 is always a bit tricky, sometimes even the most overish games on paper finish 0-0 out of the blue. Dordrecht is conceding a lot this season and Graafschap is huge favourite for this match sitting only at around 1,30ish. Graafschap’s last home match already finished with a scoreless draw, so I hope this rather unusual scoreline for NED2 in general won’t happen two times in a row in the same stadium.

I agree with op that it will be more emotional and difficult once the amount reaches to 5 digits (maybe even 4). I tried this many many times playing dice and some other casino games and I didn't have much success. I haven't tried this on sportsbooks. The lowest odds I remembered was betting $400 @1.05 once. I was too confident to win so I made the risk. I won but didn't do it again.

I am not paying attention on very low odds in sportsbooks. I felt it is too risky with immaterial rewards. But because this caught my attention, I tried looking for very low odds.

Manchester City at home, corner 1x2 @1.02 against Aston Villa. I doubt Manchester City can repeat this four hundred times but we're not talking about the same sports and matches though.

Unified boxing champion Katie Taylor @1.03 vs Christina Linardatou. Actually Linardatou's record is 12 wins, only 1 defeat (by decision) and with 6 knckouts. In boxing, a single punch can change the game. I'm scared doing this a hundred times.
         

Bets for low odds and only bets for the sports which you have much knowledge to do so i think this is safe bets although there is no 100% guarantee safe but at least the percentages will more than 90% to won for each bets but i think you have to calculated external factors that because this is gambling so sometimes bets low odds also possibly will loss and the worst part of this strategy is although you won the bets more than 20 times but if you lost at least once time then it will eat all of you initial money

That's a great challenge you do, but I won't be doing that, 100 euro for experiment is such a good amount to me already.
Also, you are like doing a martingale here that you go all in every time and that you need to bet 465 times with consecutive win to make you a millionaire, that's not viable for me actually.

You already won 2 times, good luck for the next 463 bets, hope you win it all. 

Good post @kworrom


My bold statement is, that a 1,05 in lets say Handball is way more likely to win than a 1,05 in football. The more room for error there is, the better. In Football one mistake can be crucial, in Handball not so much - you concede a goal because of some mistake, but it doesn't have that much impact, because there is around 50-60 goals scored. Even more so in a sport like Volleyball. You can go on a mental walkabout for a long period of time, but you might still find yourself only down a set. It doesn't matter, if you lose the set 0-25, 10-25 or 23-25, it's still only 0-1 in sets, there is no extra point in beating the shit out of your opponent in one set.

In women sports there is just huge differences regarding fitness, professionalism, mental aspects and whatever. If you take a look at EPL, every player is super fit, they are well coached, take care of their diet etc. The players from the smaller teams are just simply not that talented like players from Liverpool, ManCity, Tottenham. Now in the Womens Premier League on top to not being as talented, the girls from the smaller teams additionally are not as fit, well coached etc. as the girls from the top teams, so the quality gap is much bigger.

In non-mainstream women sports the gaps get even more big and the lower you go, the worse it gets.


Good read, though I have never been into horse racing. The process of setting the odds by starting with the favourites and well known participants and go on from there is the way to go of course. I was following and betting cycling for 15+ years until most of the value had gone due to only one (knowledgeable) bookmaker making their own odds and the rest just copying them. There is 160+ riders in any given cycling race, so could I tell the winning percentage of some scrub from a middle of the pack team ? No. Could I make rather good price predictions for the favourites ? Yes. Now from what I observed, in horse racing there is no such longshots as in cycling. In cycling you see riders priced 100+ all the time. If you have some good reason and/or information to play such longshot, it's not THAT important, if you get @400 or @450. There is a difference, if you get @5 or @6 for a favourite of course (talking longterm here).

In the end it all comes down to value. Depending on your betting style and your mindset, each person has decide for themself what suits him best. I am more of an underdog bettor with my normal bets, without playing too insane odds. A friend of mine thinks that even @10 is kind of low But he has long droughts of losing bet after bet of course, which can wear you down mentally and this should be taken into consideration as well. In betting a lot of ways work, but in the end you can't win longterm without being able to spot valuable odds, be it 1,01 or 10,0.

Seen up your profile which you do have currently 5 picks for today.I would suggest that you should better make your own thread but well in general sense
1.01-1.05 is just on the same spot. 75 matches win steak isnt still that assured but since these are type of experiments then either of these 2 test out
can prove out something.The difference of your system to op is that having multiple bets.

You also have to respect that I have my own opinion and I can say what I think about his strategy.
If you like it so much ...then you can join him please, I would like to see that...

In the spirit of your challenge--as an experiment I indiscriminately added ~75 matches that were around 1.05 odds or below that start within the next week. They should all win.  Let's see what happens! https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/ Will update with the result here.

There seems to be a few common themes in these 1.01-1.05 favorites. Lots of women's sports. Lots of teams who have an economic advantage, a disproportionate amount of money to spend compared to others in their domestic league (for example Real Madrid and Barcelona playing in the Liga ACB). Lots of national competitions where I guess certain countries also have an economic advantage or cultural advantage in developing their program over others.

Also, it's interesting how odds for many of these events seem to be offered only by sportsbooks with seemingly bad reputations... it makes you wonder if they would even honor an underdog upset or call bad odds. If you believe in the favorite-longshot bias idea (https://www.sbo.net/horse-racing/favourite-longshot-bias/) then the odds on backing these underdogs should pay out much worse than the favorites in the long haul.


----update 10/27/19----
Across 100 random bets on favorites around 1.05 odds (https://www.oddsportal.com/profile/lowexperiment/) even though it's a tiny sample, there was a smaller loss betting on heavy favorites than heavy underdogs. The underdogs appear to pay less than they're worth. They have a lower chance to win than their odds imply. Blame the sportsbook... the dog's odds are a ripoff.

Also, there's more variance depending on staking strategy. It was more likely to lose your entire bank when using a continuation betting strategy compared to a fixed bet amount strategy. If someone is trying this for fun (with the intention of not losing), it's worth a reminder that it's probably a bad idea to go all in. There were 6 continuation bet sequences, the shortest bet continuation sequence was 0 (unlucky man), and the longest was 32 (+284% gain) before losing.

Based on this silliness, I'd ultimately call this challenge a success if you...
(1) eventually leave with any profit
(2) are able progress further than 32 consecutive bets

This won't go even for the 50th bet. Better Op needs to check with a small amount to know the risk he has scheduled in front of him. Even when we go with the increased winning probability we aren't assured with the win. This way I find it really a hard thing to achieve. Playing on different gambling sites I find no gambling site gives way for such a win on consecutive bets. Even yesterday I lost all the campaign payments on Windice which is unexpected, and it happens which is why it is termed gambling is risky.

You have to respect other people's strategies, and it's about betting in gambling that depends on their strategy to get good luck.
those who bet on all types of online gambling are already based on prior knowledge to make strategies before betting and hope that the planned strategy will be profitable.

I did understand what he wants to do do, and I said I doubt that he can bet that high amount.

@tyKiwanuka
Good luck anyway.

Is there any specific bookie you are using?

Already looking forward to the shit-storm after losing the first bet

Most people didn't even bother to read the opening post and/or just unloaded their signature campaign garbage posts, so I won't bother engaging in a discussion with them.


Of course it is, I am aware of that and thats why this is just for fun.


I would be surprised, if I even get to 50


I know all this, I've seen it all. In my long betting career I have lost the most safe 1,01 bets and won insane gambles on 100+ odds. But till now I haven't had a losing year.


Most likely there is not much value in the odds I am playing, but this is not what it is about in the end. It's about picking winners, so I am not looking for valuable odds in first place opposed to what I do with my "normal" betting, which is not public. Feel free to open any kind of your own challenge - 1 million to 2 million or whatever - and I will curiously follow.

So I wish everyone a happy following and hope you enjoy seeing me failing, which will happen 99,999999999999%

Honestly that amount is very high for every bet " 100 euro ". and its very risky mate in my own opinion because you know every results in gambling are very unpredictable . And it can cause regrets afterwards.  If i were you,  if you just want to try you luck.  Then go first with a small amount.   Because its very unacceptable especially you lost that kind of amount suddenly, wherein just like a blink of an eye.  Well unless if you want to try that amount  just for fun.  Lol

This challenge is too hard and will only lead to frustration. The problem is with your staking strategy. Simply it is too greedy. If you go all in every time you will eventually lose. Why not instead try to risk 2% (or less) of your bank per bet? Give yourself a chance to be wrong and still work towards your million euro profit goal. It's cruel to expect yourself to be perfect even if you are not actually risking anything. I bet you will not get past 100 wagers made. Prove me wrong.

Just because the market price on a sporting event is 1.02 doesn't mean that it literally has a 98% chance of happening like in a dice game with no house edge. There are so many unknowns. The odds can be skewed due to heavy bets on only one side. A player can get injured or have a hidden injury going into the match that gets aggravated. A player's equipment can fail catastrophically. The weather can randomly affect the outcome. A referee can make a wrong call. A coach can decide to rest impact players before or during the match due to looking ahead in schedule. Players can under perform, over perform, and get straight up lucky. What this challenge will remind you is that historical results don't guarantee future results, and the market can post odds that are quite off (so don't trust what the market says automatically, come with your own odds and then compare to the market). Crazy stuff happens.

What I would like to see you do is come up with and share your own odds for these 1.01-1.05 bets. Share how much value is in these in your opinion. Should that 1.02 be 1.01? 1.005? 1.0001? What goes into your probability assessment? It would make it more interesting if you were actually placing these bets, risking real money or BTC, and how this would affect your decision making. It would also be more interesting if you instead started with 1 million euros and attempted to use this strategy to reach 2 million euros (with the sportsbook or exchange betting limits in place). Internally, somewhat, you might already sense that this strategy is a dead end since you aren't risking anything, and this is a smart choice. In any case, good luck!

When you do able to read up the word "Challenge" then it simply tells that op is trying to reach up some goal.
Big amount or not for other people but he do like to bet on low odds or simply high chance of winning.
As i can see above he do bet up 100 euro each time he do see some line. 2 times in a row is normal and im wondering on how many
games he would able to bust up that 100 euro of his.

WON

Bank: 103,98 Euro
W-L: 2-0
Average odds: 1,02

#3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt

H2H from the last years 8-0, 250-147 goals, always won with at least 10+, handicap for tomorrow is around that mark too.

Placing 100 euro every day is too risky, especially for me. It's not about the odds or anything, but it's about the money you have to place the bets. If you have a lot of money, then 100 euro will not be a problem. But I believe 100 euro will be worth for other people and I don't think that they will risk 100 euro every day to gamble. Perhaps, if the money is not too big as the OP says, I think people will place the bet, but they will not do that every day. I could only say good luck to you OP, hope you can win every day.

its not a time waster because you only need to place a bet and then leave it for some time , you can only comeback to check if you win or loose  .  its also possible to bet higher amounts on some online betting sites   .

 you can get loose on low odds but what about on higher odds ? no difference for me at all  . you can loose or win no matter what bets/odds your using  but who wouldnt want to become a millionaire ?  maybe this strat of the op is the key to achieve that

He started this to test the strategy exactly as he wants to bring it to life and now just tests his luck. Apparently you did not understand the point, it is to risk a small amount of money and get a good win after a lot of rounds.

I think you are wasting your time with this kind of bets,  and you cant bet with this high amount online.
Also odds are very low, and they can be lost also

Even  you will bet on the team with lower odds, there still be a chance that the team you bet will lose but your experienced I think so this strategy will work for you.

Patience is your main enemy here but anyway, lets see how far can you go with your challenge. It will take a long time but worth it if you will win consecutive times . Good Luck!!!!

Such a strategy is only good for those who have high patience, I have talked about strategies like this before and when you only look for odds of 1.02 then any type of bet you can do such as dice, sports or whatever gambling that at least has low odds like that. But in reality most gamblers play gambling because they have their own reasons like getting a quick profit, therefore as you have said also this is about patience and not about skills and experience as the most important. One other thing that must be considered is about luck, I have experienced bad luck repeatedly implementing strategies like this in parlay, because not always low odds will guarantee winning and profit in betting.

That will work but it's too risky for me to bet for a sure odds since, in the event of losses, it will be more painful compare betting to an underdog or around fair odds. I like OP's guts here so good luck to you and your winning stats might attract gamblers to take the risks and willing to fall on a trap.


He needs too. Even for around 1.02 odds, there's a thing called upset and OP needs to study it carefully.

You will quickly run into problems once you get over $10,000 or so, since most gambling platforms have a maximum bet size around there.

There is also an almost 100% chance that you will fail before you get anywhere close to $1 million using this strategy. Not only because the odds are against you, but because I'm sure you'll give up should you get lucky enough to somehow make it over $1,000 or so.

Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how it turns out, I hope you do update your thread every day.

At a 98% win rate, you should win around 25 times in a row before you eventually lose (on average).

WON

Bank: 102,00 Euro
W-L: 1-0
Average odds: 1,02

#2 l Football l UEL l Sevilla vs Dudelange l Sevilla 1X (lay Dudelange @50) l 1,02 l 102,00 l Betfair

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


To have longterm success with low odds, you have to be very experienced. Most very low odds don’t carry any value, but there is low odds that have very much value, but those are mostly found in non-mainstream sports and leagues.

This challenge is not about value betting though, it’s about picking 466 winners in a row. Thus value doesn’t matter that much with this challenge; I will still try to pick bets that are “safe” winners and have some value as well nevertheless. Lets see how far I can get

I'm not OP but i've seen people do well with low odds bet specifically odds below 1.10 and going all in every single time. Parlays imo are much harder than this because actual odds fall off quick since the outcomes increase when you put more matches. OP might focus on a few sports that's why he's giong to be very careful with his predictions and try not to force things out even if there's odds between 1.02~.

Really it is interesting to see how you will be going to select betting options each day. and what will happen at end, I wish to you reach your goals safely because I seen so many bet has gone loss if we select 1.01 odd also. So play safe I will follow up with you on daily base to check the status of your bettings.

If you do try to look up his above statements he do mention out that he wont rush on making up bets and its clear that he wont easily pick up 1.02 or low ones without having that analysis for sure.This is really plausible method though but as we know that sports betting can still f*cked s up anytime.Upsets do happen so even a single loss will really need some numbers of winning bets for you to catch up so this will surely takes time.

First I thought you were referring to casino gambling. In sports betting you definitely make this work, but you gotta know your teams and have a skill for this. Why not try the challenge with 2.00 odd parlays? Why wait so long as I'm sure you can find enough acceptable matches is beyond my reach.

Over the time I found that low odds matches are more riskier as the risk/reward ratio is much lower than with playing higher odds. However I wish you luck in your challenge and I will be watching this thread.

So lets start with the first bet. Format is like this: Bet# l Sport l League l Matchup l Pick l Odds l Stake l Bookmaker

#1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets

Lots of books don't even offer odds for home win, so Leonbets is pretty generous with a 1,02. Handicap is -22,5, so this should be a no-sweat home win       

I guess a lot of you guys have heard about how easy it is to become a millionaire with betting. Just place one bet each day with odds of 1,02 starting with 100,- Euro (or whatever your currency might be), go all-in every time and you’ll be a millionaire around 15 months later, sounds easy huh ? It’s not. I have yet to see anybody, who publicly provided his bets, to achieve that. There is many reasons for failing to make it, but the most common is probably impatience.

I doubt I will be the first to achieve it, but will give it a try nonetheless. It goes like this:



I won’t play exactly a 1,02 every day, there might be days with 1,01 and days with 1,05, but I will try to have a 1,02 on average. If there is nothing appealing on a given day, I won’t rush with a bet. Same goes if there is two or more good bets on the same day, I might play multiple.

I will not play these bets for real – they are just on paper - because while it’s technically doable, I don’t think anybody is able to mentally go through with it till the end. You will only lose 100,- Euro whatever happens, but in your mind, you will lose more. Already in the 5-figure range, most people will fold mentally, let alone at later stages, where you would have to put 900k+ on some scrubs doing sports.

The logistics might be a problem later on as well. Bookmaker limits might be too low, not enough volume on Betfair too and with shopping for the best odds, you would often have to withdraw and deposit huge amounts with bookmakers. Most people don’t have 900k lying around.

So this is more a fun challenge, everyone can feel free to follow the bets though.

For bets with Betfair, I will calculate with a flat commission of 5%. Only pre-match bets for easy tracking for those interested.

Bank: 100,- Euro
W-L: 0-0
Average odds: N.A.

Bets played:
#1 l Volleyball l WGER1 l Schwerin vs Erfurt l Home Win l 1,02 l 100,00 l Leonbets 3-1 WON
#2 l Football l UEL l Sevilla vs Dudelange l Sevilla 1X (lay Dudelange @50) l 1,02 l 102,00 l Betfair 3-0 WON
#3 l Handball l WHUN1 l Ferencvaros vs Mosonmagyarovar l Ferencvaros ML l 1,03 l 103,98 l Expekt 30-20 WON
#4 l Football l NED2 l Grafschaap vs Dordrecht l lay 0-0 l 1,02 (lay @42) l 107,10 l Betfair 5-0 WON
#5 l Am. Football l NCAAF l Alabama+Clemson l Home win parlay l 1,04 l 109,57 l Leonbets 48-7 & 59-7 WON
#6 l Handball l SWE1 l Skanela vs Bodens l Skanela win l 1,02 l 114,00 l  Expekt 34-17 WON
#7 l Football l ENG1 l Liverpool vs Tottenham l lay 0-1 (@34) l 1,03 l 116,28 l Betfair 2-1 WON
#8 l Football l CUPGER l Bochum vs Bayern l Bayern X2 l 1,03 l 119,56 l Betago 1-2 WON
#9 l Volleyball l GER1 l BR Volleys - Eltmann l BR Volleys ML l 1,03 l 123,15 l Bet365 3-0 WON
#10 l Football l MLS l Atlanta vs Toronto l lay 0-2 (@40) l 1,02 l 126,84 l Betfair 1-2 WON
#11 l Basketball l GER1 l Ludwigsburg vs Hamburg l Ludwigsburg ML l 1,11 l 129,93 l Betsson 94-83 WON
#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair 0-0 LOST