Topic: Challenging the lows, 25.5k and lower possible break here (Read 363 times)

Well looks like the ETH etf is a go but most of the bitcoin spot etf looks like they will be delayed. The deadline is in October but sec is delaying them now due to the government shutdown. They delayed blackrock a few hours ago. So it doesn’t look like this quarter we will get the approval.

So in regards to price I think we will just trade sideways. The government shutdown is not good for equities and the bond market is signaling a lot of pain. So unless there is some other catalyst I don’t see bitcoin pumping anytime soon.

27075 is the line I'll draw for positive BTC here, I relate that to the peak July and low August of Summer pricing fairly recently.  Referencing Fibonacci levels matches most of the daily action.   My take for 2023 prior and now still is consolidation or simpler still sideways.   We are somewhat positive but still sideways is a good description for most of the movement rather then being assuming negative on the down move or positive will last when we rise as we did today.
   Without passing 27075 and also confirming it as support to rise further, put it in the rear view not overhead or a ceiling as it easily can still be now; we are sideways.   Seems we  have to write down sideways on the whiteboard and just look to check our course on every move, are we to do the same once again repeat or can we move forward some.   When we are negative, my take is look for a positive upwards and that was my idea recently, now I consider sideways and target upside is 28913.  If we get 28913, its past the 200 day average and can we stick that positive gain at that point will be my question or once again we must assume a repeat and sideways.

I think it's just normal to see people buy, but I guess those who sold are just speculators and short term investors who just wanted to make or squeeze profit as obviously they are just day traders.

But if we are going to look at the long term, and as I have said, maybe in the future we will have this approvals and it might be next year. So it's good to buy but at least hold them as the block halving is coming next year.

I would guess that we are trying if it is the time or not yet, and that is why we get higher and then go lower. I understand that there is this type of feeling where everyone wants to already see it go up, but for that to happen we need to all buy, and we do not all buy at the same period, I do not mean like same hour, but not even same week.

So some people get hyped and buy, make it go up, and then we end up seeing it change a bit as well, I feel like if others do not join them, it is not going to happen as something that is better. We just have to understand that bull run happens when there are millions of people willing to buy daily, when it happens once with a small increase and doesn't happen again later on, that doesn't really change.

Looking back, yeah we did reach $27k again, unfortunately, it was just short live again as there are speculators who might have sold around the figures to make profits. As for the Blackrock ETF, most likely it will be next year that we will either see a big news or not.

Hopefully, we can get the approvals already so that it can also help a lot in the big bull run that everyone is expecting next year. To the point that the prediction is a conservative 6 digits in the beginning of the run.

If there is a people in this forum that follow my previous prediction they made profit by now hahaha

Like I said before its just an opinion and beside that this was speculation board nothing here is 100% accurate but if you look at the situation right now you might aware that bitcoin price goes to my direction at 27K  .
The next resistance zone would still likely at 30K but economic and news might make bitcoin can go lower again if Blackrock Etf is approved on 2 September the price will be stonk again but I heard the news about the fed will increse the Interest rate again might move bitcoin price to plummet again 

And as we can see from the increase, this was wrong. I have to say that expecting lows on bitcoin is something that can happen and people can be right about it time to time, but that doesn't mean that they will be right at all times. I think it should be important to remember that we are not going to end up with a good return all that easily so sometimes the falls happen. But knowing when that will happen is a difficult one, I think it should be important to remember that we are going to end up with a good result one way or another, and this was one of those good times. Price has gone up good enough and the result is not that bad at all, so we should be happy about it.

There's nothing to worry much about with the current situation as long as you're dealing with bitcoin, there's always that confidence that the market will rise whenever it falls no matter the conditions attached, people are still holding and buying more to get prepared towards the bull in anticipation.


Just the recent sudden pump from $25,000 to $27,000 is a strong indication that we should expect more coming sooner which may be upto the rate of over $30,000 and we keep moving gradually from there till bullrun begins.

Users have mixed emotions, one day predict that Bitcoin will go bonkers and once they is a drop they speculate bitcoin to go below $15k. People are really puzzled here as we have so called experts who are just a price fluctuation away from terming the market as bullish or bearish. I feel bitcoin will gradually pump up as it's been over three months that Bitcoin has been mostly neutral or slightly declining trend still it has held its ground which is an indicator that big thing awaits for Bitcoin but if falls around $15k then we will have extended bearish market.

Not sure if you have check the price though, as in the last 24 hours, we have a good pump.

Just check it out your self, the price is $27k++ already. But I do agree that as we approach the last quarter of the year, we might see a price increased specially as we will approach the halving already.

And so it's very interesting where we will go, I'm seeing maybe we can reach at least $35k-$40k or close to it at the end of the month.

 The correction in bitcoin price to 25k+ is what have been bothering so many investors and people have begin to look out to see if the price will pump back soonest but it hasn't, rather the market has been sideways at there is no increase in price.

We are approaching a new month and I hope that we hear some good news that will help pump the price,if not we might still be on the 25k+-26k+ range because the economy situation is also affecting bitcoin market. I do hope that October will be a good month for bitcoin and we might see the price of bitcoin at 40k at the end of this year. The halving will have a lot more impact on the price.

Its always be and this had been since in the beginning on which there's no way that it could really be predictable. Just to take some look with the recent events on the price had dipped and bottomed on 25k which lots of sentiments and speculations circling around and saying that the price might hit up even more lower than 25k or even seeing that 22k if ever it would broke out that strong support but look at on where we are now?
Lots had been shocked and havent able to anticipate such price increase knowing that this market isnt really that totally influenced by sentiments or fundamentals but it turns out those sudden news did really make out that kind of move on which tons hadnt been able to expect for it to happen.Technical analysis could really be showing up signs and possibility of those price movements but we arent that dumb on not to say that not all the time
these kind of technical approaches are always right most of the time. It could easily fucked out those analysis in a blink of an eye.

I hope that you are aware that the price of bitcoin is not predictable and is not something we can depend on, so bitcoin have its price and you can sleep and before you wake-up bitcoin price have accelerated, so therefore nobody can predict accurately when and how bitcoin price comes about, hoping that bitcoin can get accelerated in the month of September is not something I know full well, it can be tomorrow the price of bitcoin  falls drastically beyond our expectations or predictions and such is applicable to rising aspect of bitcoin  where by the situation of the price can rise tomorrow due to the market demand get accelerated or is of higher potential than the supply. So this two factors is strongly behind the elements that makes bitcoin to get increased and get decreased.

Once it goes to the lower bound range, it's going to be a continuous selling pressure. With this in mind, I think it's best to set a certain price that you would buy. Maybe accumulate it with continuous buying for specific step ranges.

There is upcoming pressure that would go to the market, so it's best to be ready. The possible selling would be in October so, why not take advantage of it now? If you think a lot of people would sell.

My perspective hasn't really changed much, I still think the global economy is in too much of an uncertain way that is also seeping into the bitcoin market affecting how people react. We have seen how the growing recession in US and EU over the past year has put a sell pressure on the market causing the drop to this point and also preventing the start of the next bull cycle. This has not changed so far. So either the recession has to end (which is not going to happen since energy price is still high among other reasons) or "they" have to run out of bitcoins to sell which will take longer.

In short 2023 will continue being uncertain with sideways and sometimes unpredictable moves like the recent drop below $30k.

I think 30k to 35k is the very best we can expect out of bitcoin at the end of the year since there was simply not enough buying pressure for bitcoin to go above the 30k level, however if we saw a fast recovery at the end of the year we may surpass it, but not for long, however it is entirely possible the current levels could be maintained for a few months as I have noticed that if the price of bitcoin does not recover immediately after a dump then it takes bitcoin some time to recover.

I personally considered 26k low enough so started buying a bit. But I am worried that it can go even lower. I am not going to sell Bitcoin I bought at this level for sure, as many holders, next year these positions will all look too cheap. But carrying the burden here if it goes around 20k will be sad. But anyways I will keep on accumulating more if Bitcoin price hits 19-20-21k. Pretty sure institutions will buy there too.

Regarding the issue of Mt.gox, do you believe this time they will actually compensate their victims or will continue the story of empty promises they have made over the years? Furthermore, as in previous announcements, many victims want to receive that compensation in USDT or other crypto, not just bitcoin as an option. So we still don't know if it will really affect the market or not.
Personally, I don't believe Mt.gox will return those bitcoins, they will keep promising and will find a way to prolong this story much longer.

Similar to what I have mentioned before, the people are presently witnessing disbelief in this market. They speculate that this is only another bear market rally that will certainly dump later. I shake my head on this because despite every bad news about the economy, bitcoin has been going up since November.

However, what might cause a dump is Mtgox's repayment of $4.3 billion in bitcoins. It is very much certain that the receivers of these coins are very excited to sell some of them after being frozen for many years hehe.



Mt. Gox creditors are set to receive payouts in October 2023.
142,000 BTC, currently worth $4.3 billion, are set to return to general circulation.

Source https://www.ccn.com/news/mt-gox-repayment-bitcoin-price/

In reality, it doesn't take time for Bitcoin to spike in price. It can spike or decline in price within days. That's how it went from its previous price of $30k-$25k within days, after fluctuating within the range of $28k-$30k for months.

Bitcoin spiking in price to $40k-$50 is what I can't foresee happening in the last quarter of the year due to how the bearish market seems not to go above $30k for months before it falls to this present price of $26k.

What I can actually foresee at the end of the year is $30k-$35k of bitcoin price. Any price above it would come around next year(2024)

Stable or the calm before the storm,  its indecisive to me and Im not sure which direction it will take especially.    I do take the point that higher lows are still indicative of a bullish market however subdued:
Im not sure of 42k this year but I find that more probable then making a new low or a low below that seen since 2022.   Autumn can be a rough market but didnt we already have that action already occur, if BTC is already tried and tested in its selling capacity then it may not move much further down.
   I think our realistic range remains 24k to 32k until it breaks and proves some strength past either of those boundaries.   We are negative within that range but we are able to maintain prices above 2022 August and more recently February and that might be enough for now to hold and wait for more positive sentiment across all markets etc.

weekly bars, blue is 1 year and yellow is 200 week or 3 years 10 months  quite long term.  Both averages are rising which Im told is most important consideration.


Bitstamp VOL OBV

The price of Bitcoin is very much stable at 26k and there is very rear chance that price may drop below that. The main reason of my believe is the halving that is coming up next year. Its just a small dip and there is strong possibility that bitcoin very soon regain its lost price of 30k. We just need to be patient for this price correction and don't need to sell our holdings in panic.

Exactly, let just watch what this month could birth to because I don't see any signs and strength (signals) to show the market will be negative or positive. All I see from the market is neutral and that may also last for another 30 days and more before either negative or positive.
But at this point investors remains mute or possibly involved in DCA. Probably who knows if that is the best option now for investors or to those who panic over the market.

Yes, same here I'm neutral here, I don't think though that we might go down below $25k. There could be pressure, but I'm seeing the bulls trying to defend that $25k and in the last couple of days they actually did it.

But there are so much resistance around $26k level, we have achieved $26,500 but it was again short lived. So let's see, we are entering the last week of this month and so most likely we might maintained that $26k price.

One thing to point out that not many aren't acknowledging is that for now (as of writing) price remains in a parallel / bullish channel. Granted it's at the very bottom support level of this channel without showing much (or any) signs or a rebound, and no doubt if the support breaks we can see lower prices, but otherwise this 5.5 month consolidation at the top of a trend (from $15K to $25K/$30K) remains a bullish structure.

If we compare this to early 2022, Bitcoin had been in a downtrend for a few months prior to a bear flag style consolidation at the lows for another few months that led to another leg down. Currently Bitcoin has been in an uptrend now for a few months with consolidation at the highs for a few months, that if broken to the upside could quite easily lead to around $50K prices,as a continuation of the uptrend following months of consolidation.

Either that or we'll see a re-test of liquidating around $20K to $23K and effectively a "reset" to a more neutral market, as admittedly between $23K and $25K there is very little volume to support price, even below $26K there is a notable decline. But otherwise to think that miners/companies haven't had months to pay off debts above $25K isn't quite true, with even a fair amount of time above $30K as well.



Personally my main scepticism for further upside remains reclaiming around $28K and $30K where there was a lot of distribution as can be seen by volume profile. I guess either way I'm keeping open minded until $25K breaks, as there remains some bullish structure in the market especially with price reaching considerably oversold levels, even more so than FTX crash that marked a low in the market.

I still remains neutral about the market and there is no sentiment from my ends, because I know that surely the market  must always have face to drive to i don't know why the panic is much towards the market, and I think this could be the cause of the not creating any changes couples with the selling pressure, i was shocked to see that market dropped to $25k I think before gradually touches 26,500 which think it was a retracement to finally bounces back to 28 and 29k.
But let not be too worried over the price because certainly we must see it bounces back to its previous price before we may witnessed another ATH, currently the market is controlled by fear and uncertainty due to the huge dump of SpaceX who knows. 

After the collapse of the price below $31,000, the continuation of the price below this level means more selling pressure, especially since some miners and companies need to pay off loan debts, which means that they are forced to sell instead of waiting for a longer time. all of these things make the price stable below $26,000 with the possibility that The decline continues for a longer before the price begins to easily rebound above $42,000.


Price movements are what will determine whether we will be at 21,000 or 42,000, but we will definitely not settle at 25,000 for long.

My investment horizon is from cycle to cycle, so I am positive. It is true that the price performance this cycle has been a little disappointing, and that we have been waiting a few months for the price to take off and it has not.

For the next few months it would be normal for the price to rise to around $40,000 or maybe even more, as this has happened in previous cycles, but who knows, just as this cycle has been the one with the lowest returns, we could also find ourselves with sideways to halving.

Earlier in the year I assumed we would have a echo bubble with bitcoin. Basically a bubble like the previous but not as large. I assumed we would hit maybe at least $35-45K. And get a blow off top. However we didn’t really get  an explosive action like I assumed.

So maybe we get one more pump and then we stall like stock market or maybe we already hit the high at $31K. Most likely we won’t know until we get closer to October. The etf most likely will be delayed and won’t have any impact until then.

Because it's 2023 and I see so many experts predicting and speculating about crypto, especially Bitcoin, of course it's a little confusing for those who invest and will cause various speculations on the crypto market in general.

However, if you want to challenge the lowest Bitcoin price this year, if in my opinion Bitcoin will touch the lowest price of $ 25,401. for the year and $35,000 highs, it can be assessed from the current developments in the crypto market and last week it touched $ 25,812.68, meaning that for $ 25,401 it is most likely based on my personal speculation.

But anything can happen as we have seen before, what is certain is that all of us have our own confidence in the price of Bitcoin in the future, regardless of speculation in circulation.

Why do you believe that next month will be a good month for bitcoin, what do you base it on? Because many people were also expecting and saying in August bitcoin will cross $35k but so far we are even trading at $26,000 and more likely to drop to $25k. Historically, halvings have not activated an immediate bull run, but a real bull run usually occurs 1 year after the halving. So that won't be a reason for bitcoin to rally and hit $40k before the end of the year. To do that we need big positive news.

From the look of the price movement of bitcoin at $26,030,we might have a drop below 25k but I don't think it will be possible for the price to go below $24k. Next month will be a good month for bitcoin for there will hope for bitcoin price to bounce back to $30 again. I believe that the moment the price hits $30k,it will break the resistance price of $31k and move above that. I also believe that by the end of this year we will see bitcoin price at $40k because the halving will be next next April and that is a good reason for the price reach $40k.

Everyone is different in seeing the moment and also in taking advantage of it and also in finding out about the causes of the frequent declines and increases in Bitcoin. You may not be a short term trader so you are not very interested in finding out why Bitcoin has decreased in price this week, because those who still like to trade with Bitcoin especially in the short term will continue to find out why Bitcoin has decreased in price besides they are looking for potential which could make Bitcoin rise again before next year.

Bitcoin price is still moving sideways and is still in the $26K range, although there are occasional bounces to the upside. But it never lasts long at this point so that the price of Bitcoin still tends to return to $26K although I personally still believe that the moment for a bigger increase is still possible to come back and happen to Bitcoin at the end of this year.

I think this price tensions is due to the recent dip of the coin. But according to me this is just a temporary move. This is because Tesla selling huge amount of Bitcoins and hence price went down. If you start speculating on each and every incident, then it only shows that you lack patience. I am expecting that at the end of September Bitcoins will cross 30k usd and next year ATH price is must.

I think it's still a bit early to assume whether the rest of the year will be bullish/bearish/neutral, but I'd say relatively neutral for now between $20K and $30K. Price needs to reclaim $28.5K in order to return bullish, which for now I find unlikely given the months of distribution that has occurred at this level. I'm otherwise not entirely bearish until the $25K lows have been taken out, then I imagine $23K will be next.

Earlier in the year I was anticipating a re-test of $23K support/accumulation level, but instead it never occurred with $25K resistance being turned into new support. However I think this level is back on the table with $30K confirmed as resistance, especially since bulls think that $25K will continue to hold while bears are waiting for $20K again, so somewhere in the middle around $23K seems more likely as a new support level.

The recent $BCOIN ETF launch otherwise didn't help, as expected, with price immediately dumping afterwards (as per always with ETF/future launches: ProShares, Bakkt, CME & CBOE). So hopefully if we can avoid any ETF approvals this year then price can probably remain relatively stable/neutral. Otherwise we could see not only $20K but a return to the lows if ETF's get approved this year. Let's hope that's not the case.

I don't even want to know why the price of BTC fell this week, because I'm more interested in finding out when the price increased significantly and that's my big difference from them. I think I agree with your opinion, when the BTC price drops, of course we only have one chance to make a purchase and for those who still expect a bigger decline, they will definitely miss the moment of buying because they are still worried.
 
Maybe in this month BTC is still struggling to break through $30k because the selling point is quite high on that wall. However, this drop was short-lived and I think the BTC Price will slowly come back up again.

I don't want to see another $16k number and hope it doesn't happen again. There's always a surprise before the halving maybe this is a surprise for those who want to buy at the dips.

Zooming out on the chart and not being familiar with the causes for the previous dumps, I would say it looks like a visit to $16K is in the books for the future. I think that’s what is scaring away buyers at the moment. However, I don’t think that’s true, but I wouldn’t want to be a trader right now. For long term holders though, this should be viewed as a good time for dollar cost averaging.

I agree with Frank about the bottom pricing being  a good guide maybe the best guidance for the path BTC takes.   I do think any commodity price can drop below its costs, though it should result in constriction of supply in theory.   BTC is slightly different in trying to regulate supply to match a 10 minute regular issuance, we notice this massively when demand is there and BTC supply remains quite constant.

BTC back to its range of lower 26 thousands roughly, in play since the bigger sell of about a week ago.   Right now we have been trading more positively since this sell threat was extinguished.    This is comparative, imo we remain on a tight leash till proven otherwise.
  However  point of note last 24h is weekly average caps the highest prices.   I dont expect much till we regularly can place BTC above its last 7+ days of price action, today we cannot.

For Bitcin, around 40 or 50k may be good levels. I don't expect these levels towards the end of the year, but Bitcoin always surprises us. What is important is the recovery of this decline in Bitcoin price. If it can be recovered in a short time, I would like it to come to the prices you said.

I wonder how long it will stay at what price level if the price drops further. After all, Bitcoin can suddenly increase its price.

With this current dump, we should not loose attention thinking we may be going on this for long or it keeps going more bearish, bitcoin as at the time is expected to run bullish, this may not come in as fast as possible anytime sooner but we could actually have an experience of it little by little, this is a time where bitcoin market should not go dip to this far than we expect to reach around $40,000 or more, but little more time will prove how realistic this could be.

Bitcoin has been showing a drop in price for a few months now. Now we can say that the end of the month is coming soon and probably August will be in the red too. If the current support is broken, then we might see the previous bottom.

the speculative market vs (off market underlying value) bottoms

2021: $30k ($10k)
2022: $15.5k ($15k)
2023Q1: $16k ($15k)
2023Q2: $21k ($17.5k)
2023Q3: $25k* ($20k) [*so far]


outside the speculative market. there is a underlying value and a top premium window of infrustructure which the markets speculate inbetween but do not pass..

we are currently in a value-premium window of $20k-$140k window which markets can speculate between(based on hashpower and real world economic costs of tops and bottoms potentials)

you can calculate this value of the window by looking at the most efficient cost effective mining on the planet.(the least cost to acquire bitcoin privately/wholesale on the planet no one wants to sell below)

you can calculate this premium of the window by looking at the most INefficient mining on the planet.(the most costly to acquire bitcoin privately/wholesale on the planet, where  no one wants bother mining for or buying above)

as long as we dont have a massive hashrate crash competition or "free energy" boom, the underlying value will keep supporting the market to not go back to pre 2023 levels of market price(sub $20k)

OP, despite the drop in the price of Bitcoin, I am still bullish about Bitcoin towards the end of the year. It doesn't matter whether the price drop is so bad, but the market recovery can sometimes be very quick too. Despite the fact that Bitcoin is currently in the #26k zone, it can also quickly spike to $30k+ in just a week or less (I guess), and I believe that it's possible that towards the end of 2023, we can see Bitcoin around $40k-$50k.

A few hours back I think they tried to run the weekly lows but failed. Maybe there is less leverage now than before or it’s a stop hunt and we will go higher.

We had a massive OI change and I just don’t think there are any longs to liquidate. We will most likely chop around and break next month or some positive news happens and next month we will be at $30k again. Now the liquidity is just awful.

Just opinion maybe Bitcoin cannot make a new lower and go to positive at 27-28K level again and going to side away again after that but since next month is September and usually a bleed month for bitcoin Im not sure its going to above 30K level

Wondering what peoples sentiment for 2023 is right now, negative, neutral sideways or still aspiring higher.


I see the price challenging the lows of last week here, we achieved 24k as a low but the majority of the price action remained above 25.5k.  That resolution in the sell was some slight positive, a sell off can reverse but it appears to be failing in that resolve right now.
  Right this moment we are trading and threatening a wider move.     How do we finish 2023 if this move isnt finished with just resolving purely back to March prices.



Here is the price action on 15m bars in last few hours, this does appear some attempt lower.   I think we observed this before also, main markets close negative sentiment (repeatedly)and after hours approaching the Asia open around midnight forum hours the price becomes weakened.  Failing to hold here does make me think of 25k or lower could be the wider range required to establish strength.

I've forgotten how to do a poll, maybe its a mod only thing now.  But I'm wondering, Going forward into the 2023 finishing price action and sentiment & using 25k as a pivot:

BTC

• Positive
• Neutral
  
• Negative

[Quick follow up chart.   Lets see it resolve higher and prove me wrong, of course Im fine with being wrong lol.   I do think we have weakness just look at the volume but never look at any wider picture just once, its worth discussion imo ]