📉 💸 Chances to get a losing streak 💀 😱

Lakai01

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Quote from: Mahanton on August 02, 2021, 02:18:46 PM

-snip-
Getting lossing streak do come in random way but dont have much idea on what are the odds of happening.

Well, you could use the calculator you posted, then you would know Wink

Nevertheless, thanks for the link!

The difficulty here is certainly to find out how high the chance is actually to win. Regarding Hi-Lo you can usually do that, but it's more difficult with slots for example. I'm also not sure if you get here relatively easy to get this info from the respective casinos ...

Mahanton

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Find out some calculator.
https://www.smartgamblingedge.com/p/odds-calculator.html

Source:
https://forum.stake.com/topic/18281-calculate-possible-losing-bets-in-a-row-with-odds-calculator/

Edit: wasnt aware that it wasnt working.

Getting lossing streak do come in random way but dont have much idea on what are the odds of happening.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: ralle14 on August 02, 2021, 12:11:16 PM

Shamm somewhat got it right you have to multiply it but the calculation is wrong since you only need to multiply the losing probability which is 50% and not the amount of losses over the total coinflips.

With 3 losses in a row that would be 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125 or 12.5%

To confirm it's the right answer you have to find the percentage between the other sequence of outcomes as well(LLW, LWL, WWL, etc) and hopefully they should all add up to 100%.

It's the same formula as the one in the link of Yogee but it's a wrong formula.
By doing that you will only obtain the chances of getting a streak of 3 losses out of 3 tosses. Which is not really useful unless you plan to only play the game 3 times.
Here I'm asking how you are computing your chances of encountering a streak of 3 losses out of 10 tosses.
Then it could be LLLWWLLLWW, LLLLLLLWWL, LWLWLWLLLL,...

Hydrogen

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To pursue projections related to potential for future long streaks.

An algorithm structured around bayesian probability could be used.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability

Or a branch of math like chaos theory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

There are a few different frameworks which could used as a foundation for answering this question.

However, I don't know if gambling odds could be reliably used as base statistics for probability of one side or the other winning. Gambling odds never reflect true probability IMO.

aoluain

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Quote from: Saint-loup on August 02, 2021, 05:53:03 AM

I've seen many posts and topics talking about losing streaks here but I didn't read many of them talking about how people are calculating their chances of getting a losing streak in practice.

So how personally do you compute your chances to get a losing streak at gambling games?

I'm sure there is a forumla to calculate this but I cannot see how it would compute.
No one knows the mindset of the sports team or person on a given day or game.
There are factors which are out of our control.

Tennis as an example has so many factors to consider:
Is a player carrying an injury?
Will the player get injured during the match and how will that affect the performance?
What is the mental state of the player?
Are they able to overcome any mental issues or doubts they may have before or during the match?
Will they be able to control their emotions from decisions of match officials?
What will the weather be like?
What will the audience be like?

Quote from: Saint-loup on August 02, 2021, 05:53:03 AM

For example, how personally do you compute your chances of getting a losing streak of 20 consecutive losses out of 100 coin tosses?

After a bit of thought, this scenario is pure chance, again so many things affect the outcome
Grip
Power
Distraction

I think it is very difficult to work this out, I have had a loosing streak in the past of maybe 6 of
7 bets. I generally bet very conservatively and most always bet on the favourite but favourites
get beaten.

Interesting thread all the same.

ralle14

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Shamm somewhat got it right you have to multiply it but the calculation is wrong since you only need to multiply the losing probability which is 50% and not the amount of losses over the total coinflips.

With 3 losses in a row that would be 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125 or 12.5%

To confirm it's the right answer you have to find the percentage between the other sequence of outcomes as well(LLW, LWL, WWL, etc) and hopefully they should all add up to 100%.

Fesatmas

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Counting consecutive losses will be very difficult to do if we are focused on continuing to gamble from one table to another. The fact is that the losses are often greater than the gains. For example, the first 100 tosses of a coin, lose with 50 tosses of the last coin. It would be very confusing if we counted the number of times we had to try it from scratch. Maybe if the casino provides a history of how gamblers lost in one place it will help us to be more able to calculate wins.

Kong Hey Pakboy

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@tyz is right, it's hard to determine the chance of losing streak but I like to elaborate on a different part regarding why it's hard to determine the chances, it's because we aren't mathematicians plus it's not the losing streak that we have to determine because losing is what's mostly going to happen to you when you are gambling, offline or online. Maybe if you are a statistician then probably you can do it. Also, a way to determine your chances of losing is try making odds on what you're playing and the highest number is your chance of losing.

bittraffic

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I have not counted not estimated how many times until I already lost all the funds I have because its the MAX button is the last option. Thats when I will go calculate the lost amount and almost can't believe that I lost 12x.

There are users I've read they've experienced about 25x. Thats really heartbreaking promise of martingale strategy.

Yogee

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Intriguing topic and I do not know how so I tried to read some guides online like this one https://www.legitgamblingsites.com/blog/how-to-calculate-the-odds-of-gambling-losing-streaks/ The formula for losing streak in that article is pretty simple but the problem is I do not understand where the percentage for chances of losing came from.

Shamm

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Case to if your loss is 20 consecutive then probably you have a 80% chance of winning and 20% of losing

In case 2 if you losing streak 3 times out of 10 draws
You have 9 percent of losing you can multiply 3/10 x3/10 = 9/100 convert to percent is = to 9% chances of losing

Actually in real gambling games you cannot predict what is the results of the game because in online gambling for example tossing coins you have 2 options what is your bet and you have also 50% Chance of winning it is Program already to the owner what is the result after tosing.

robelneo

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Quote from: Saint-loup on August 02, 2021, 05:53:03 AM

I've seen many posts and topics talking about losing streaks here but I didn't read many of them talking about how people are calculating their chances of getting a losing streak in practice.

So how personally do you compute your chances to get a losing streak at gambling games?

For example, how personally do you compute your chances of getting a losing streak of 20 consecutive losses out of 100 coin tosses?
Or if the numbers are too high for you, how do you compute your chances to get a losing streak of 3 losses in a row out of 10 coin flips?

I was and still am a victim of losing streaks, there's no exact calculation I even set up a bankroll that can go up to 16 consecutive losses, but we never know the exact run of losses, it can hit you anytime, the best thing to do is to always cut your losses, it's not easy because you always think that the next roll is the lucky roll that you've been waiting where you can recover everything, it's the choice of losing everything or cutting your losses, I prefer the latter I rather cut my losses and than lose everything, quitting when you must is very important when you are having bad rolls.

Lakai01

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Quote from: tyz on August 02, 2021, 05:58:41 AM

How high this percentage is, is up to the casino itself. Since they are not known, it is not possible to determine the probability of a losing streak.

Are you referring to the House Edge? This is usually already known, at least for well-known casinos such as Bustadice/Bustabit. Of course, the information provided by the operators does not have to be correct; you would have to take a closer look at the codes and scripts.

By the way, BTCGosu has a comparer that also compares the House Edge casinos in more detail: https://www.btcgosu.com/bitcoin-dice-sites-comparer/

@OP
To be honest, I always calculate only with the House Edge for my games. The longer you play, the more likely it is that the odds will equalize across all games. Also, the longer you play Losing and Winstreaks keep the balance!

tyz

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Honestly, it is hard to determine the chance of a losing streak at online casinos. Why? Because, on the contrary to offline casinos, the casino programs can be set individually and accordingly the parameters can be changed in such a way that in the long run the bank always wins a certain percentage. How high this percentage is, is up to the casino itself. Since they are not known, it is not possible to determine the probability of a losing streak.

Saint-loup

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I've seen many posts and topics talking about losing streaks here but I didn't read many of them talking about how people are calculating their chances of getting a losing streak in practice.

So how personally do you compute your chances to get a losing streak at gambling games?

For example, how personally do you compute your chances of getting a losing streak of 20 consecutive losses out of 100 coin tosses?
Or if the numbers are too high for you, how do you compute your chances to get a losing streak of 3 losses in a row out of 10 coin flips?

Edit : I will give merits for relevant replies.

Topic: 📉 💸 Chances to get a losing streak 💀 😱 (Read 112 times)