Topic: Changed my opinion about the ABC correction (Read 182 times)

Can you post the chart with updated price action? That triangle (labeled XX) doesn't look viable on my chart.

I'm a little confused by the higher degree count (labeled in green as X and Y). Would you mind sharing your chart beginning from December 2018?


As I see it, there are two main possible scenarios. I think xxxx123abcxxxx summarizes them pretty well here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53171045

It's too early to rule out the possibility that the rally since December 2018 is an extended impulse, to be completed. If that scenario plays out, we'll be trading above $20K next year.

Bitcoin is too immature to fit into such a pattern.

You need to account for s-curve exponential adoption, growing bitcoin networking effects (as outlined by trace mayer) and the seeming application of the four year fractal pattern and PlanB's stock to flow model.  Your little drawing seems inadequate in terms of accounting for those four dynamics that are also affecting price and putting upwards, rather than downward pressures upon its medium term trajectory.   You will thank me later.   

Thought it could be a flat ABC but looks like it's a zigzag.




For those who didn't follow the Elliott Wave analysis, this is a typical tool used for trading, very well known and successful, we are clearly seeing this at the moment:



I would say possible price 4k next year, maybe 3k if C point is in line with the top of wave 3, but it's too tough to call exact prices.

Anyway, bear trend is crystal clear.

There is always a possibility to break above 12k, which would change the whole trend but this is not likely at all (unfortunately).

The best thing for Bitcoin would be to go back to 1k, that would be very healthy and a good chance to accumulate Bitcoin, but there would be panic and most of you would not buy (I would!!).

Going back to 1k is possible but it's gambling at this stage. On the other hand going back to 4k is very likely (my humble opinion).

There should be a bounce back to 9k area soon but the trend is clearly showing a 4k price for next year. Please forget about the halving by the way this is a delusional bet.

I for once place a sell order at 9k and wait for next year scenario but a price of 1k would be fantastic. That's a very long term scenario though. I would even say 1k would be necessary for another big peak at 20k (and possibly above).



I make this thread self moderated but the Belgian guy is allowed to post as long as he doesn't predict a price of 25k for end of December   I promise I won't delete anyway  


@ another guy who a few days ago called the zigzag ABC correction. kudos to you (sorry forgot the username).



Constructive opinions always welcome