Topic: [chart] Bitcoin "bubbles" and "valleys" (Read 1202 times)

Which is why you should probably use 80, and not 70 as the upper limit.

I removed volume intentionally, to make the chart clearer.


Indeed, it mirrors, but what's the gain? I mean, when the price drops, it's already too late. Although, it shows very well when we're in rising trend. You can see it quite well at 1y chart.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSIzv

EDIT:
Also note to RSI: Every rising cycle (above 70) is getting longer, although you might see "false positives" or "precursors" to the rising at September 2013, December 2012, June 2012. Also the gap between "precursor" and bubble is getting bigger.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg730ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gRSI

Volume should also be included here. 

Look at RSI, it's chart basically mirrors the price, although muted. When RSI drops to 20 for anything, including stocks, the price WILL rise. The upper limit is considered to be 70 or 80, and that's when it usually will drop, although not as reliable as the lower limit of 20.

I'm ok will all discussion and critics, so no problem
1$ spike is not on this graphs. I've found it on February 2011, but dump after this is quite small (very slow to about 0.7), so it is not very visible on the chart. Note also, back then liquidity was much lower.
Here's log chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-01-17zeg2011-08-17ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

Just to tell, I'm no "OMG we have to hit 2000$ now" or whatever. I wouldn't be surprised if price went down now to 400 or 300$ or even 100$. I know it's quite optimistic scenario, but based on those observations I'd say it's quite possible. And there are MUCH more optimistic scenarios back there in forum

I also wouldn't be surprised if BTC went all down, but I believe it can't be killed already. Even if there are restrictions in "normal" trade, there is always black market trade, that worked with bitcoins for years now

Its overlayed at the beginning of the second graph you posted.  You would simply push that time scale to the current one.  My comments are not meant to discourage you but rather to embolden you to all scenarios.  I've invested to the point that I'll be happy if it goes one way but don't have to kill myself if it goes the other.  It seems the current attitude is that everyone is going to be rich over night when in fact they should be investing with a mind towards the future and simple gains (if not expontential gains) rather than being in the inclusion of the 1%.  Hope for the best but dress for the weather... be it as it may.

I coulnd't find the 1$ bubble before 32$ bubble, so I had to start there.
I don't see any need to rush personally, I am just searching and analysing.

Very optimistic, heres to hoping..  Especially with alot of the cloud of "Everyone expects 2,000$ immediately"  Im all for it but I'm doubting this scenario.  If this were meant to be a simple comparison, why didn't you also overlay the 2 - 32 run up with the current one.  Everyone will get their money back eventually but this "hurry before it gets to the next stop" attitude is going to leave some people run over.  Why the rush?

Just wanted to share some pictures and my observations with you.

http://i40.tinypic.com/mb4ig7.png
"normal" scale
http://i40.tinypic.com/2me4avc.png
log scale

These are overlayed "valleys" between "bubbles":
1. valley 30$ to 260$
2. valley 260$ to 1000$

Now, here is one more picture, normal scale, but modified
http://i40.tinypic.com/igf21i.png
The modification was scaling the second valley to fit the first one in values times ten (ex. 10$->100$, 100$->1000$). Hope is readable enough. Also note, the charts are moved to best fit with each other.

So, here is my guess.
1st bubble was (about) 1$ to 30$ (fall to 2$)
2nd bubble was 15$ to 250$ (fall to 80$, stabilize at 100$-110$)
And now the third bubble would be 140$ to... (see the pattern already?) 2000-3000$
It is mainly just a new zero every time, but also every time it gets easier (lower hill, not-that-much fall).

Please, also note the "dip" (not good visible though on chart, but yet still) from 140$-120$ on April "bubble" and our fresh 900$-600$ dip few days ago.

But there is 10 000 CNY on the road worth about 1600$. What about it? I guess nothing. There were no problems in passing 10$ and 100$, there would be no problem passing 1000$, since now USD shares market with CNY, and for Chinese 1000$ is just a number.

So, my guess would be: Now we stabilize for few more days on 750-850$, and then we go 2k-3k USD. Then we fall to about 800$ (for short - there will be panic after breaking through 1000$, just as there was after breaking 100$ - but not for long). Then again we break 1000$ and stabilize at 1600-1700$ (with Chinese support at 10k CNY).

Comments please