Topic: Charts you have to see before Halving (Read 351 times)

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Recently, there has been a lot of abuse and manipulation of information regarding the expected halving, but there is still not much time left to really evaluate the results of the expected event.  at least to date, the value of Bitcoin over the past week has already risen by 16% (9.950$).

The pandemic only has minimal effect on the market though. As you can see, Bitcoin made a good run from the last couple of days breaking the $9,000 level. That signifies a good indicator of market performance because of the halving. We might have a different situation than before, but how the people look at the halving is still very optimistic.
If Bitcoin was greatly affected by the pandemic, we shouldn't be seeing a good recovery run by now since last March the price went down as low as $4,100.

Because the price went up. That's really all it takes. Markets are all about feedback loops and emotion.

The fear in March compounded until we had an epic capitulation to the $3,000s. As the price recovered, the fear and disbelief disappeared and has now been replaced by tangible greed. Whereas in the $5,000s or $6,000s everyone expected a return to the lows, now in the $8,000s or $9,000s everyone expects up, up, up.


Lots of BTC investors think this is actually somehow good for BTC.

In general, investors (BTC, stocks, whatever) get tunnel vision about their holdings. They tend to plan for the best case scenario only. The March 12th crash is how they get punished. The market feels like it's building up to another brutal shakeout that bulls aren't prepared for.

This year's halving has nothing to look similar to the previous halving. We have a different situation today than of the past halving and this is a big factor why we can't be like and not seeing the market turns good. We can't see an instant effect of halving and you may right, and the chart as well seeing it a year after. And as I said, a lot of factors that could affect the market trend and who knows that we are still fighting against coronavirus until next year. Quite that possible and I lost my optimism. 

I guess I'm just puzzled how people are so confident in such uncertain times.  

Maybe I have some misconceptions about bull-runs.  I've always assumed they were the result of a surge of new users due to the hype around halving.  Lured in by speculation but often choosing to stick around for the long-haul due to network effects and the other benefits Bitcoin affords them.  A perpetual cycle of more users leading to greater utility, leading to more users and so on.  But all I'm hearing at the moment is how much ordinary people are struggling in the broken traditional economy, ever-growing gulf between rich and poor, businesses failing, job losses, etc.  Which instinctively leads me to believe that future halvings won't have the same impact when people generally have less disposable income available to invest while the world is going to shit and their primary focus is simply putting food on the table and keeping a roof over their heads.  

So, long term, if things continue down that route and the economy worsens further, where do we continue to source new users from as the price gets higher while people generally get poorer?  Will it still have the same impact on the markets when buying anything more than a few mBTC is simply unattainable for the average person?  Will the price swings still be as dramatic?  Just makes me wonder if the current chaotic state of the world is going to impact the next run and rain on the speculators' parade a bit.

Unless I'm talking a load of nonsense and bull-runs aren't the result of an influx of new users at all, heh.

Or maybe people will come out of covid-19 lockdown with a surplus of savings because they haven't been able to go on holiday this year, or didn't spend every weekend down the pub like they normally would.  Maybe they decide to plough that money into Bitcoin, who knows?  Maybe it'll be the most impressive bull-run yet.    

I think $300K-$400K is very possible in another bubble scenario. I wouldn't even rule out $1 million given how illiquid the sell side is during bull runs.


Why is $20K reasonable in 2017 but not $100K in 2021? Pull up a monthly chart. Past bubbles came and went fast.

I do feel there is a lot of overconfidence and exuberance in the market at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see both BTC and stocks smacked down hard to punish top buyers and margin longs. If there is wishful thinking going on, it's all the expectation that we'll see a bubble right now, and that there will be no corrections along the way.

The new kids in the market are expecting the same market situation like the previous halving and they are not even thinking about the present economic situation which is getting worse as long as the pandemic is not controlled. In many countries the market is shut for normal business and only the medical industry is functioning round the clock and these charts does not mean anything if the economic situation gets worse.

Just over 100k is still unbelievable to me, is it possible? Well technically speaking there is nothing that stops bitcoin from being 1 billion dollars each, I know you may find it moronic, I do too, however I am talking about "technically", let's say everyone in the whole world decides to not sell under 1 billion (not gonna happen, just an example) that means bitcoin is a billion.

So, "technically" speaking it can go over 100k, however I do not really believe it will go that high, I see about 15-30k range as realistic, 15k because it is already pretty close and could go up there pretty fast, 30k because that is the maximum I can imagine bitcoin being right now. Everyone is entitled to their opinion obviously, I just wanted to share my own to you guys.

Okay, but how much of that is wishful thinking?  I can't help but feel people are just setting themselves up for disappointment with such high expectations.  A new ATH, okay, definitely possible, but the figures you're talking about seem a little overly optimistic over a relatively short timeframe.  If you had said that was your prediction for 2040, then fair enough.

One of the main reasons that the situation is different from now and then is the current situation that we have now. People are searching for understanding what halving is and why it is correlated to the possible increase in price.

It's always going to be the hope for everyone us here today to have it at a higher price, right?

The logarithmic rainbow chart is interesting. The maximum bubble territory and the fire sale are the regions that we want

Yes this. I mean I do think we'll probably have a 1000% increase from here. I think high 5 figures, or possibly just over $100k is a reasonable target for the next couple of years or however long it takes for the market cycle to complete. But you're right, cuz 1000% is much smaller than past bull runs. Like 2016/2017 from the halving on was almost 3000%. I think expecting only around 1000% from the halving to the peak this time around is reasonable, and it will continue to get smaller on each cycle. The 2017 peak was like 18x higher than the 2013 peak. I figure the next peak will be 4-6x higher than the 2017 peak. And I wouldn't be surprised by the following peak (late '20's) it is only 2-3 times higher than the next peak. I'd say 100k peak in the next couple of years and then 200k or quarter million peak late in the decade is a reasonable prediction. But yeah its not gonna be as big as previous cycles, its not gonna go to 300k in a couple years then like a million late in the decade, which some people seem to think.

Yeah fully expect the next couple years to be bullish and likely hit a new FOMO induced market top in like 2022 perhaps. Between coming off the 2018 bear market, money printers around the world going on overtime, the halving, continued integration of bitcoin in global financial culture, and so on.

No idea what it'll do the next few months, could dump, could pump, will probably do both. But the post-halving two year time span will very likely bring many hundreds of percent returns from here.

I actually have always liked the rainbow chart the best as a long term predictor for bitcoin. It shows the band for long term lows and highs, it shows the highs slowly getting lower in the rainbow, and the rainbow itself gradually getting less steep. A much more accurate chart as Bitcoin heads toward trillion dollar market cap and there is only so much money in the world and only so much that will be put in a single asset. Much more realistic long term chart than the people who try to say this market cycle will go to $300k by just pasting in past bull run % gains to the current market, without thinking about how much larger market is now (and therefore how much less headroom there is).

Assuming the next peak sometime in 2022, and since the 2013 market went a bit off the top of the chart, and then 2017 market just went to the highest red band, we can presume the current market cycle will be a bit lower and maybe go to the third highest band, probably putting a peak around $100k, give or take $20k or so.

In case anybody likes funny charts, I've also seen "brrr" search term hit all-time highs, Bitcoin price correlation with avocados, and well, just basically any other kind of chart.

Also, bears are showing also some pretty convincing charts, so you know what, I say let's all enjoy what we can, take the risks we can afford to lose yada yada (to echo DooMAD), and don't expect. Hope's fine, but it springs eternal and dies last;)

I just wanted to warn everyone for just one simple thing, this halving may not increase as much as the other ones in % because we are a lot higher in price right now. Moving from couple dollars to ten dollars is totally different compared to moving from 10k to 100k all of a sudden, that is literally what we are against right now and maybe it could increase a lot more in the future, makes sense because we are going to have 900 bitcoins less per day sold on the market, that is 9k in 10 days, that is 90k bitcoin sold less in the first 100 days, which is very obviously a big deal and could increase the price.

However do not imagine we gonna have another 1000%+ increase, that will probably not happen. Focus on increase of bitcoin and not "how much" of it, let that part be.

Excessive optimism and excessive positivity are often bad indicators for investment and therefore a greater likelihood of a price crash.
All previous analyzes come after the rise that occurred during the last days and it might have been different if I read the analyzes in the month of March when the price was at the levels of 3000 dollars.
So do not rely on it a lot or rather do not use it as a reason or an answer. Will the price increase or not?

seen from the Chart years ago when Halving 1 and 2 started the price of Bitcoin entering the Bullish journey for the next 1 to 2 years,
meaning that it has been confirmed that starting in 2020 this is a journey for the price of Bitcoin to penetrate the new ATH, and the Bottom has been touched at $ 3800

The S2F model has been becoming a trend for the past few weeks. People are getting bullish and that is making other people to worry because we're all having the same thought for the performance of bitcoin after the halving.

I have never thought of it because we're all stick to the idea that the bullish period might start after the halving within few months the same the other halving. But, this is very possible because of too many factors have changed and the situation this time is different from those.

What do all these people mean when they say the rally will start soon? Take a look at the weekly chart. BTC has been rallying for almost 2 months, 7 straight green weekly candles, and up 146% from the lows! It's done nothing but rally lately.

In 2016, the halving pump only yielded 105%. The huge crash in March helped in that respect. It snapped the market back up like a rubber band. Regardless, I still sense overinflated expectations about continued gains without any sort of multi-week bearish correction first.

So, last 2 times it took ~6 months after the halvening for a bull market to kick in - I believe this might not be the case now. We have seen 4 big surges since the last year, and I think they can all be attributed to the halvening. One of them is the latest one, so if the market become bullish even before the halvening, there's a possibility that it will be bullish during/after it, but the bullishness might also not last long.

I'm thinking that the rally will start very soon, but will end at 14-16k resistance level, and then Bitcoin will turn bearish for a few months, and then everything will repeat again.

It is also worth to mention that first halving decreased inflation from 25% to 12%, second halving from 9% to 4,5% and third one will decrease inflation from 3,8% to 1,9%. So every next halving has weaker fundamental influence on price and start to be only pump and dump. Fifth halving will decrease inflation from 0.4% to 0.2% - close to dust.

It is also worth to mention that average volume in 2009-2012 was like 0-10 mln $ daily. It it more than 10 bil $ now. So we are talking about completely different market and completely different (much weaker) trigger event (even if it is called the same) so in my opinion we can expect totally different output especially that:

1- We weren't in pandemic fear during last halving, we also weren't recovering after 60% dump.
2-FED just announced 2.3 trillion $ print "fighting with covid-19" (it's not the first print last month). Doing that they increased whole world money supply by ~3%. During single print. In my opinion it may have bigger fundamental influence on bitcoin price than halving.
the broad money supply ($80.9 trillion).
Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy

This is one of the more astute observations. Most of them over-emphasize the importance of miners and the halving as a bullish catalyst.

Based on timing, price action, and history (not to mention world events) I think it's likely we will remain in a re-accumulation period characterized more by sideways than parabolic gains during 2020.

Will this year be prepared for over $ 10,000? I see the chart makes me optimistic, maybe I'm not the one who feels optimistic anymore, everyone must think the same as me  , but the price reduction has been $ 1000 in 1 day, from $ 9400 to $ 8400, what do you think?

Play safe out there, it's a dangerous economic climate for taking risks.  Although it should go without saying, the last halvings took place under very different circumstances, so it's even more difficult than normal to predict how this one is going to unfold.

I collected on the Internet some interesting charts you should see before halving which happens on May, 12th
They only made me more bullish in perspective

So. Let's go



"Halving" search requests all-time record

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As in 2016, we see how the number of whales increases rapidly

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Hash Ribbons Indicator gives a signal to buy right after miners capitulation

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ColinTCrypto notes that grow usually happen after 2-6 months after halving, not immediately

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Price action structure here

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Halving patterns from Coindesk

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Stock-to-Flow model

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Fundamental reasons

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And the last one — the rainbow chart. Don't take it serious

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Are you ready?