Topic: China mining decision May 7 (Read 424 times)

Because of subject title I was searching on China mining decision supposed to be done mai 7, but I didn't found news about that

I just red in this CoinDesk article  https://www.coindesk.com/chinas-economic-planning-agency-labels-bitcoin-mining-an-undesirable-industry
that mai 7 was just the end of comments

The public will have until May 7 to share feedback on proposed amendments, after which the final version will be published and become effective.

However, it remains to be seen whether the revised guide, if still including such categorization of bitcoin mining in its final form, will have any impact on bitcoin mining in China, since the catalog itself serves as a general direction for future development.

So I suppose final amendment publication still not done. Any one have some news in chinese ?

Just remember that if China bans mining all through out their country some of their companies might be affected. For those of you who don't know Bitmain and Innosilicon one of the leading manufacturers of mining equipment in the world are domestic companies in China, if they ban mining then this manufacturers might set up shop on other countries who are interested in mining. It will be China's lost and they maybe need to think twice before doing anything like this. For the OP before you even think about BTC's price crashing you need to consider the fact that if the hashrate fell the level of difficulty will also go down, this is sort of the way on balancing out the loss hashrate in the process if mining will ever be banned in China.

Decisions made by the state of China will be very important because it can affect the market cryptocurrencies globally.
As we know that the country of China is the biggest contributor to the miner, so whatever the decision will have a significant impact.
Hopefully the decisions made have a positive impact and don't even negatively affect the development of cryptocureencies.

It may not be FUD because china like to control things coming out of their country and anything that they virtually do not have full control of, they might not want to really give it a full support, but like you said, time will tell, by today ending, we will know if there will be any pronunciation or not.

If it is true that something like this exist, I am sure there will also be serious negotiation going on within these miners and china government and this might lead to china fully understanding what the whole cryptocurrency is and pick interest in adopting it, let us just hope that whatever decision china makes, is that which will favor crypto and not go against.

last time China took an official negative stance towards bitcoin operations was second half 2017 ...

Chinese miners are contributing immense to the development of mining industry and I think the decision to stop mining in China is going to affect Alot of things and it might turn out to be positive effect or the other way.  I really did not understand why they should do that now  but I think bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has had wost attack than this before and bitcoin over come them all.  We just needs to take the worst scenario that will happen but things will get better after then.

Right, so if 70% of the hash rate instantly disappears, the network will magically just keep churning out blocks every 10 minutes?

You should really consider learning how Bitcoin works before calling people ignorant. Anyone with a basic understanding of Bitcoin mining knows what you just said is completely retarded.


And when blocks are being found 3x as slowly, how does that factor into your equation?

The market would likely be panicking due to fundamental network failures anyway. Miner supply is a total afterthought!

He is not saying the block reward or mining time will change. He is simply stating the fact that if tomorrow 70% of the hashrate went offline, then it would take longer to find blocks because 70% of the hashrate would be gone.

Hence block times would be around 2.5 times as long to find, so the amount of coins released into the market would be less until the difficulty finally adjusted which would take a while.

Would probably take 2 or 3 cycles for the proper difficulty to adjust and each adjustment would take over a month or so. And this would cause a backlog most likely and would cause panic in the markets.

If it was ETH then it wouldn't have much of a drastic effect because it readjusts the algo every block, unlike Bitcoin where its every 2 weeks.

Lol, but can you see the timing though? If they have assembled weeks or months ago then why now? So I don't know who is ignorant here, everyone here has clue as to what is going on with China and their sudden U-turn, don't you start people calling people with their utter ignorance in this community.

I'm literally stunned by the ignorance I find on this subforum. Dude, 12.5 coins gets mined every 10 minutes regardless of the number of miners. The more miners the fewer rewards. The fewer miners the larger rewards. JESUS.

That's not how it works.

Let's say you are hypothetically right about 70% of the hash rate coming from China. Existing non-Chinese miners would reap a much larger share of total coins mined, but due to the huge drop in hash rate, it would be over a much longer time period than before. The drastic drop in hash rate means much fewer blocks being mined (much less than one block per 10 minutes), thus much less block rewards hitting the market.

The bigger fear about such a hash rate drop is the blockchain would grind to snail's pace and transactions couldn't be reliably confirmed. However, all of this would eventually correct when the difficult gets readjusted.

The initial headlines about some sort of national ban would have the biggest effect on price. It would trigger waiting sellers to dump and create some self-reinforcing panic in the market. I don't think mining fundamentals would change very much though. Much much less than 70% of the hash rate is coming from China. The miner exodus from China has been going on for years now.

So suddenly miners get 3x the rewards they've gotten used to for the last 2 years and you don't think that will affect price, even in the short term?

The biggest point here that could result with something slightly bad for us is the fact that for a few days a lot of hash rate will be gone and until next difficulty adjusting period the transactions will be slower and more expensive, just for a while and nothing big.

After that the difficulty will be readjusted and we will continue like nothing happened and we won't even care about it, as long as price doesn't react to that small changes for a few days then we won't even realize china banned mining at all, literally go as our day like nothing happened without noticing. Considering we have managed to work segwit into the code and now lightning network is used in many places mining isn't even that important right now since people can send/receive money much more easily than what we used to do before those two.

I don’t see it having any negative effect on bitcoin in any way, I understand it will affect the hash rate but it will only make bitcoin supply become limited for the main time and as BTC supplies becomes limited, the demand becomes higher, which we all know that it is the natural things we need to come to play for bitcoin price to really hit very high.

For now, we have too many miners of bitcoin, making the supply higher; I think this step of china to ban miners is really a great effect. There are other countries that miners can mine crypto from if the need arises.

On the contrary, China has been threatening ban after ban for the last six years. It's more like "the boy who cried wolf" than anything else. The Chinese government is incredibly divided and fickle and you never have any idea what they're actually going to do. I've lived through literally dozens of "China Bans Bitcoin" rumors (including government committees and statements from PBOC officials) that never materialized. When all the talk of bans arose throughout 2013-2014, all they did was ban commercial banks from holding/trade in crypto.

The only substantive ban (the exchange/ICO ban) was done in the middle of a bubble, which may be relevant here because the government has repeatedly cited over-speculation as a concern. During 2015-2016 (which I think is a better parallel for where the market is) they didn't pass any regulations at all.

All that is to say, I wouldn't be confident in any particular outcome here. Much like Russia, nothing the Chinese government has ever threatened has ever been a sure thing.

Either way, miners have been steadily exiting China for 1.5+ years so this is all being blown out of proportion. If anyone believes Chinese pools are representative of Chinese hash power, they are a fool. Mining businesses stopped receiving energy subsidies in January 2018, and according to government reports, "many Bitcoin mines in China have stopped operating" since January 2018. All the biggest miners have expanded outside of China or entirely moved their operations to Iceland, Canada, the US, etc.

By the way, they never banned trading CNY for Bitcoin. China actually has a really robust OTC market. They banned centralized crypto/CNY exchange platforms. One of the little-discussed motives of adding centralized exchanges to the blanket ICO ban was to stop the exchanges from continuing to act as shadow banks. The issues around money laundering, shadow banking, and capital flight are more complex than this idea that China is simply on a rampage against crypto.

What are you talking about? the committee was assembled weeks if not months ago to look at the situation. For you to say they are all of a sudden looking to ban crypto and it's fud is really ignorant, they already banned selling crypto for yuan and icos a year ago.
I don't know why I bother with relevant issues on this subforum, nobody seems to have a goddamn clue what's happening all they do is look and react to the current price.

With or without china, cryptocurrency will continue in its services to those that needs it, it will never disappear, it is even good as they will no longer get involved, as there is possibility of having limited supply for some of the coins they are mining which will lead to increase in their value as demands become higher than what can be supply.

I don’t see the reason why china would be going against what will benefit them and add more value to their economy, I understand that the cost of mining is quite very high and consumes energy, but the money cryptocurrency brings to their country through these mining is more than enough to pay for all those services and still as to their capital growth.

He is not far from the truth mate and I would not really doubt if 70% of the hashrate is from there because most of the miners are from china because of the access they have to high energy and moreover, majority of the mining machines are being produced in china.

So stopping china from mining will automatically stop them from producing mining machines, other countries mining machines will be quite too expensive also for miners to afford. So this might lead to very big decline in the supplies of cryptocurrency and I really see a lot of coins becoming very expensive as a result for this decision.

Let's see how it goes, if it has 80% chance then we might as well see some huge impact on the price on May 7th. But I honestly believed that this sort of ban from China is FUD because they know that lately the price is going up. So it's somewhat sketchy as to why they suddenly decides to ban it when the market is already on the road to recovery.

The Chinese government assembled a committee to review the crypto mining situation and they concluded that mining should be banned because it's a waste of resources. The Chinese government gave themselves till May 7th to make a decision. Based on the past Chinese decisions to ban selling crypto for fiat and outlawing icos, I see at minimum a 80% chance of an official ban in 2 days.

80% chance? That seems like a big exaggeration but maybe you're right. I've been hearing about imminent PBOC/Chinese government plans to ban Bitcoin for ~6 years now, including proposals like this one. Given their track record, I'd say the odds are much lower.

If they do truly ban mining, it will be a planned and orderly exit at a future date like adaseb mentioned. Chinese people are heavily invested in Bitcoin and the mining industry and the government isn't interested in massacring those investors. In the past, their overt reasoning for prohibition talk is usually investor protection.

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

But I do agree that long term things will be better without the Chinese involvement in crypto, but short term the price could crash for the reasons I've already stated. I think buying before this Tuesday is pretty fucking risky. If the decision to ban comes as expected, that would be a hell of a nice time to short - but I also expect a significant drop immediately.

If ever China totally bans crypto mining then I believe it could be a blessing in disguise since this scenario could significantly lessen China's dominance in Bitcoin mining industry and it would result to a more decentralization which is good for the overall security of Bitcoin network since the more segregated the mining power in Bitcoin around the world, the better it will be for the whole  network. And also, it will open up opportunities to other mining pools to try and mine BTC with a lesser threat from overwhelming competitors.

never underestimate the "china bans bitcoin" headline! since they're no longer relevant in the exchange space, messing with the mining industry is the last way the chinese government can fuck with the market.

since i don't believe we're in a bull market yet (and in fact i think we're near the top here), if they ban mining in a couple days, i'm confident it'll help trigger a crash.

the FUD about China is old news mainly because it was overused to the point that it became see through. you can blame all the FUDsters who came before you, they kept on using the same thing about China banning bitcoin and everything related to it for years and slowly but surely people stopped believing in the lies and nowadays whenever they hear the word "China" the first thing that comes to mind is bullshit

there is also the fact that with all the things that Chinese government has been doing over the past years such as closing exchanges,... every business has exited that country. even Bitmain is no longer under the fingers of Chinese government.

I Would be very surprised if they actually did ban it. And even if they banned it, they would set a date in the far off future and people would be prepared for it.

And the hashrate in the end wouldnt change because the ASICs would get shipped and sold off to other countries and they would just get powered on somewhere else.

The difficulty would eventually slowly adjust and even with a massive amount of hashrate gone, the difficulty would go lower and we would get 10 minute block times again.

I'm not expecting them to shift their stance on something that they've basically decided long ago, which is to drive crypto businesses (or at least 'unregulated ones', by China's standards) out of the country. This isn't something that is new.

I don't agree with the statement that all of a sudden, hash rate in the network is going to drop by so much. Most Chinese mining companies will either have already relocated overseas, or in the process of doing so. Others that are already operating in secrecy won't be deterred just because the government's stance is formalised.

I highly doubt that it's going to have an effect on the price either way, though if out of the blue they do somehow come out with new regulations for miners, then it would potentially lead to a rally. But as I said, no one expects that scenario to happen.

Have a same thoughts with you. But maybe it can be wrong because a lot of people still influenced by chinese news about bitcoin these days. But we must know something like this always happen and people might be already know what it means.

They have been great at advertising bitcoin by this kind of news.
Why? They have done it over and over again and it still works.
Do you really think they will just give it up if they have already invested time and effort by doing this kind of act?
I dont think so.

It is like a natural thing by now. Almost every quarter they will put something on the news for social media to talk about it and so it donates a little value for bitcoin.
Then, they can get their profits.

Whatever the decision will be, it will only effect the Chinese community and will have no impact globally and on bitcoin price. We all know now that News from China  these days are only to create Fud and therefore, it has much more less impact on bitcoin price and volume.

Oh cmon, Didnt some of the Chinese bitcoin miners shifted some of their mining facilities to Mongolia? I think read before that the electricity is cheap and the cold weather is suitable for operating.

But we're on "Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation", it's best to talk about "Bitcoin".

---

Here, we should be talking about the relation of the possible decision with the market, as I said above, not much of a "buzz".
Miners do it every time: SELL. Banning mining operations in China might slightly affect the market but not that much since they aren't the majority of the traders.

And here's one fun part:
It's a very very good news (for non-Chinese citizens) if OP posted it here: Bitcoin > Mining > Mining speculation.
Low total Hashrate=Low Difficulty=More Coins.

Isn't a large % of litecoin being mined in China as well? let's not forget the original shitcoin.

For me it is the nature of the Chinese state which has indeed been going on for a long time. China seems to be closing down and they want to have services and maybe even crypto coins themselves. China as usual has made a decision that surprised many parties, I think there are still very many miners from China at this time. But if this regulation is implemented quickly, then it is likely to make a negative impact on the majority of coin prices such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

hydro power is cheap during the wet season (4-6 months of the year) in places like sichuan but mines operate year round at much higher average rates. so it's not just cheap electricity that motivates chinese miners---capital flight is real. if you want to move capital offshore, you can expend on mining in RMB and take all your profits offshore.

miners can legally sell crypto in china. there's nothing illegal about p2p trading. at a time when chinese are desperate to move money outside the country, i'm sure some miners are stepping in to meet that demand.....

Because of the number of Hashrate that the article indicated can be a bluff and China can never have such percentage on the mining pool, There is a second percentage that the Hashrate are all unknown and many of us is not consider that a lot of Hashrates was because of China, We can not take a mere hearsay can be viable and the only conclusion, We should take direct research about it,

But considering the fact that there might be an effect for miners when mining will be really stopped in China's part, I guess it can only be a slight change with the pace If they would want to really stop mining in their country so be it, We don't really need them.

The whole reason so much mining is done in China is the cheap electricity, so I fail to understand people who think this decision won't have any impact on price.
Another issue I'm wondering about is how are Chinese miners selling the crypto they mine since they can't legally sell it in China? have many mining rewards for the past year have been held by Chinese miners? if that's the case, and mining is stopped, could this create more selling pressure from the miners in other countries who are free to sell all the increased rewards for fiat?

70% where do you get that number?

Of course if they stop or ban mining then the price could be affected negatively. But I think big miners have already a plan B in place in case Chinese government banned bitcoin mining. And I don't think they will be caught with their pants down.

Maybe this time they already have moved somewhere else, so there will be net effect, but I don't think it will be on long term though.

Maybe the bump and btc going to $6k is a signal saying china will not ban bitcoin, or maybe is a small bump before the desicion. At the end any desition god or bad will affect bitcoin price. I would say china will not ban mining, but lets see..

I don't think it will affect Bitcoin price, only hashrate if something happens at all. The Chinese government has announced a ban of mining many times but never forced any action and maybe that's what will happen this time again. If they are really going to enforce a complete ban of mining the big firms will shut down in first line but all private miners can still be undetected. China is a big country with huge population and no chance to spot private miners.

It seems to me that we all should not panic and expect any catastrophic scenarios, even if China responds rather harshly about this issue, then I don’t think that this will lead to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin. There may be a slight drawdown in the price, but no more than that.

I've been reading for years about how larger operations like Bitmain are moving out of China and establishing globally distributed mining farms. This threat has been looming for years. I don't believe for a second that the biggest Bitcoin miners haven't been preparing for it.

The hash rate you're seeing pointed at Chinese pools is not the same as the hash rate located in China.

There's a strong possibility (like all other "China bans Bitcoin" moments) this is just a "nothing" event and nothing will happen. It looks like Chinese miners aren't worried about it at all: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-minings-new-bidding-war

I guess we will find out Tuesday, but I don't see how a change like that wouldn't affect the price at least temporarily.

Chinese mining is not as big of a deal as people make it out to be. People make it look like it is similar to when china banned ICO and than following that ICO went down so when they ban mining the same will happen. They are not the same thing, first of all ICO did get banned in China around the same time ICO started to lose its appeal so it got lower all around the world not just China and that is why we can't say ICO dropped because of the Chinese ban.

On the plus side right now bitcoin prices are going up which means that bitcoin mining will get much more attention whereas ICO was dropping in attention globally, so we are going to see China doing something against the current hype which will have much less affects on the price as well. I feel like nothing at all will happen.

Even if there the miners from China will be stopped and some miners will start sell their bitcoins, i don't think all miners will sell their bitcoins and the price will not drop too much.

^  Yup.  All that would def be bad.  But it's not happenning.  And here's the thing...  Nobody cares if anybody wants to talk about it.  Lololol.

Edit:  And I'm not trolling you or anything but all the China ban stuff is getting old.  BTC isn't going anywhere.

I would think if they decide to continue allowing mining that the price would continue on the course it's on, because this is in effect no change. However, I think the China mining ban will for sure be announced - why would they ignore the committee they set up to examine this situation's recommendation?
Explain to me how coin rewards suddenly going up 300% for remaining miners would not result in a temporary price drop? And how would a loss of 70% of the network hashrate effect the network? will trxs slow to a crawl? that's a huge drop to happen all of a sudden.
And stfu with the fud comments, this is a serious question that deserves discussion. If you don't have anything constructive to add just move along.

^  So what are you saying?  Either way BTC is f*cked and should drop like rock...?    It won't.  But I guess some people who haven't bought any at the recent lows would love to see it happen. 

Well, what is a favorable decision? if they announce that mining can continue, then things go on as they were with mining continuing to be centralized in China. If they announce it is now illegal and miners must stop using cheap China electricity and shut down immediately, how could that be favorable in the short term, when the other miners will now be getting like 3x the bitcoin for the same work? Long term it would favor the price because the cost of mining will go up. But short term - why would the price be stable or continue to go up?

Why am I the only one talking about this decision that will happen in 3 days? seems like a big deal, what am I missing here?

And here's the thing.  The fact that BTC has broken out and keeps breaking out could mean that insiders know the decision is gonna be favorable to BTC.  If everybody was so spooked by the coming decision, everything would be dropping like a rock right now.  IMHO.

Wth are you guys talking about China doesn't account for 70% of the bitcoin hashrate? this info is everywhere if you google the question, here's just one article:
https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/china/

What I'm saying is, if 70% of the hashrate stops on a dime (and it will with the official decision) then that gives the rest of the miners who aren't located in China a much larger coin reward until the slack is picked up in other countries. Why wouldn't this result in a price drop? Think about it - 30% of the miners were getting 30% of the coin rewards, within a day these same miners will now split 100% of the coin rewards.

Well, it's true that China will drop the decision within this week.
But where the heck did you find the data of the ratio of miners per country where China has 70% of the total hashrate?

Another thing is: total hashrate and the price can't really directly affect each other.
If the hashrate dropped due to closing Chinese mining farms, it's still up to them to immediately liquidate their crypto assets (especially Bitcoin) to be able to affect the market.

That might be not a far-fetched idea if trading or Cryptocurrency in general will be illegal in China alone.
Mining to be illegal, not much of a market buzz.

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?