Topic: China's trading pattern confirmed: 21h sleep, 3h action (Read 3726 times)

I think they sell all of the coins at night and buy at morning as i am also from asia, whenever i wake up and check price it is always like 10-20$ down per coin and again untill midnight it jumped to the past mark.

BADV (The red study in the 2nd region) is much less erratic, but the volume is still there. Leads me to believe that the volume is much more balanced rather than just one way. This could be either, a) more organic volume mixed in, or b) just closer to a 50/50 split with the bots. Candle close can still be controlled with a single well placed market order just before the closes, so conventional volume bars don't tell the whole story.

So... did they go away or did they finally get a better algo? 

My hypothesis is that it's my cat who's responsible for this.  Sounds like his pattern.

full control. on the way up.

I'm pretty sure that was legitimate volume since the price moved almost 15% in 2 hours. The motive of which seems to be stop hunting or an attempt at closing back inside BB's. I watched it unfold and it was clearly a concerted effort to trigger a bit of panic. 

Bots at work , again!

Bots down and market put to sleep! We know it now and the only plausible hypothesis is that those bots are from the exchange. Shall we be worried about the stability of this price in the weeks to come? hell, yes!

From earlier today...

Nice, (more) natural looking volume profiles and a usable indicator

Seems that once breaked the 400 $ it started to climb fast, now wait and see if it goes higher or returns to previous levels. In my point of view 2016 could be very important for bitcoin price, i want to see if with the halving it could go back to 1000$ mark.

Apologies, fixed.

You see that green candle?

Peonminer, can you please stop posting your way-too-big-pictures ? They make this thread unreadable.

In the essence of bot nostalgia . . .
I'll just leave this here
Enjoy

Nice, any other dirty little secret you'd like to share? ^^

Also, about that in-house volume indicator of yours, i'd be curious to see it for western exchanges such as stamp and finex!

This is very possible and the main reason I kept it to myself until someone else brought it up

The bots went offline into accumulation/dormancy mode to create a visual floor. The elastic pattern has slowly come to a crawl. Breakout imminent.

Here are my predictions for today. 20:00-22:00 UTC breakout imminent. This translates to 2:00PM-4:00PM CST / 4:00AM-6:00AM HKT. Either today, or tomorrow. Only time will tell.  

They can always find another way to do this, if they were doing it there was a reason. We will have a closer look at the price/volume patterns and see if this happens again.

they Read this thread and put bots off-line
very simple

They want you to think it's done. Just as soon as you sell everything we are headed to Mars.

That's why you should never use volume (especially in BTC 0 fees exchanges) as an indicator. Price itself is the ultimate indicator.

Also, it is not only that volume brings price action - the opposite happens often.

Proof is the period of stealth price increase posted upthread.

Running multi-bots within an exchange that uses 0-fees? Please tell me a good reason why should someone NOT do it? Since the exchange has no legal obligation (regulation-wise) to post every transaction on the ledger it's perfectly fine by me. Besides, let's face it; it was ALWAYS China behind BTC (or at least some people want it to look this way).

As per the real volume, I agree, it's not represented right on OKcoin & Huobi; but, IMHO, there's actually enough to justify the rally

Chill and relax. Bubble 4 is en route.

CCMF it is.

Huge volume and barely any price movement. Just wash trades. But you know what they say, volume is the precursor to price.

My hypothesis: if it is too obviuos we should ask ourselves who is doing profit out of it and I think these are bot exchanges. Because if it was my bot with no trading fees I would probably have problems and this does not seem the case while an exchange take all the advantages of this trading pattern.
Imagine a casino: when they find patterns/strategies in players who are winning too much they stop them.
This is the way I see it.

Mt.Gox version 2

When there are no transaction fees, people stop according any significance to volumes traded.   

This kind of fake volume is almost too obvious - in the end these guys are moving millions between each other, and this just looks too amateurish the way they are doing it. It looks as if they don't want to even hide it.

There is some slight variance. This is a 10 minute chart and the green lines on the red indicator represent (Number of Bars) NB 141. This is covering the last 10 days or so. The vertical green lines are just some points of interest where large spikes occur but very little if any, movement in price occurs.

I have noticed this behavior on OKCoin for a week or so now as well, and I am not even a trader.  Watching this thread to see if the fine investigative minds here can piece this puzzle together.

How do those hourly volume bars break down on a more granular level? I ask because I'm wondering: If it's a bot that doesn't seem to be masking its activities, why does the interval vary? Is it possible the bot is on a fixed interval and the rest of the volume spike is something else?

If the bot were on a fixed interval, it can't be shorter than 23 hours, looking at the chart. Since these are hourly bars, that would mean it could just be a single buy or sell at a fixed time. I admit, this is kind of the opposite of Occam's Razor, probably the bot just has more complex parameters than a simple timer.

Will be following your updates. Thank you for the analysis.

Confirmed

Amph how can there be a stable progress with all this price manipulation? I think your deterministic belief in progress is a bit flawed. There can be no such thing as stable progress if BTC will be ruled by bots: you could argue that Wall Street is the same, and I'd would reply that I supposed at least BTC could be different.

well this is how it work always, but as long as the new bottom will be higher than what it is now i'm fine with it

it's only about making progress, stable progress

That's it: understood?
I don't mind an high price: I want it to be well sustained and not able to collapse in while because of a bot.

Not the bots pushing price.. Bots using essentially fake volume to paint a picture of demand that isn't there.

The crash which occurs once the effect of these bots wears off... 
Otherwise, I will be happy if they push up the price.

What is your problem with bots pushing the price exactly?

Following this thread with a little bit of anger and frustration because I'm tired of all this bot price manipulation: in any case thanks a lot to Wexlike and RyNinDaCleM for the charts and very likely hypothesis.

Seems they are trying to revive Willy's trades: maybe November's pump was just a drill for something bigger to happen.

Watch out!

Thanks Ryn, great input!

In 2-3 hours the next action should occur.

Very interesting, in a couple of hours we should see it at work again let's watch what happens

Now it would be interesting to see when this whole thing started, always having the question in mind: "Cui bono". Does it make sense for someone who is just speculating? Or: If someone wants to sell mining hardware or a Bitcoin related service, it would make sense to use such a bot because it also means that Bitcoin gains more public attraction and the price is getting higher. HAve there been similar patterns in the past and can they be linked to certain events?

Nice thread. Thanks to Wex and RyN for helping people visualize what's going on there.

Would be quite stupid of them to execute all their manipulation in a short time frame. If they are using bots for it, they can easily spread it evenly across the day to attract less suspicion.
Most likely something else is going on than volume manipulation to attract customers, as this does not look attractive.

I wouldn't put it past the chineese to pull some stunt like that. It could be someone or group trying to manipulate the price, then again it may be just volume manipulation to draw more people into OKcoin to benefit the exchange itself..

wow - Guys wwhats fgoing on over there  ==??
Everything blows up to the moon or somethign other wromng on the amrket right now?

regards
lama-hunter

Yeah bot is not give affect anything but surely price increase because manipulation and im worried price goes down fastly

Clearly a bot. An efficient one at that. Fakes a whole day's worth of volume in 3 or 4 hours. If it runs longer, it only becomes more apparent. 1MM BTC per day in volume? Yeah right. I have been observing this for a while now. In the chart below, is a special indicator I built specifically for volume analysis. It looks like shit in China since the volume surges are so erratic. But it shows what you all want to know. Spikes up are buys and down is sells.

link to see it more zoomed in
In the first half of the rally, it was all buying but it's strange that there is very little movement during those surges.
In the last half, the buying has given way to selling for about 60-70% of their volume.
In the middle? Dead zone, but that is where all the real price movement really happens. Again, strange happenings over there.

My hypothesis is this;
Take 5k BTC (any amount really, 5k is just an example), place an ask wall. Take $1.8M (or the equal value in Yuan) and buy said ask wall. The net result is 0 fees, 5k volume (possibly 10k depending on how they actually calculate and broadcast volume) and a more bullish looking chart. Now do this every few minutes for 3 or 4 hours and you get 300k+ volume, bullish looking indicators and zero losses/risk to the tape painter. Since everyone thinks Chinese exchanges are so legit so they follow their every twitch, they have the market by the balls. That dead zone in the middle? That is their true volume when not being worked by the bots.

For reference, here is standard volumes

Link to chart

And another showing uptick and down tick data

One more link

lol, something else just occurred to me. Sell legitimate coins at market in the last half, but end with green bars from just a single order being executed above the open price. You guys are being dumped on. It's easy to see! From the first chart, it is clearly dominated by sell-at-market volume. But many of the corresponding volume spikes close as green candles in the second chart. It only takes .01BTC bought higher than the open price to make a green candle. Keep that in mind

After Mr. Xan Wu was late in paying his electricity bill last month, Mr. Wan Xu from the power company "Lightning Dragon" steps by every morning for cashing in. Therefore, Xan Wu sells all his Bitcoins every day for getting some cash two hours before Wan Xu steps at his door.

Obviously, you've never been to Shanghai or Beijing or any other Chinese cities. They wake up early, like 4-5AM. Them yellow men are not lazy like us White devils. Chinese KNOW how to work hard and long.

I don't see how it necessary involves bot usage. There are a lot of big players in china, the hash from mining can't be botted, so it's real, what im saying is the interest is real over there, there's serious money on the line.

That is really weird indeed. Atleast you can now time your moves quite well. After massive volume, you get 20 hours to think about the next move, will it go up or down?
Maybe we can figure out a way to determine whether it will go up or down, so we can use this manipulation to our advantage.

And what about the pump we had in the beginning of November? Was it like that also?

Huobi's volume is more spread out than Okcoin's.

It's weird that the rally started at six in the morning China time yesterday. I doubt many people get up and start trading that early on a Saturday morning in China. Maybe some start trading at eight in the morning, but six is too early, most people want to get up late on a Saturday.

Yay for manipulation and bots on a fake market.

Looks extremely weird.