I developed a trading bot that allows to make micro-transactions and to win around $1 per hour with 99% accuracy. The method is simple : the trading bot I developed learn the pattern of the currency value through time, and it finds alone to good time to buy or sell. I think this is a good start because :
- It does not require a huge investment : with only $20-30, you can start to run the bot with very low amounts of transactions (the buy threshold was fixed around 1e-7 BTC)
- You can run it at any time : since the bot works alone, you can leave it the night while you are asleep
- Gain are usually around $1 an hour, you can of course obtain more, but it is also more risky.
BTC How does it works ?
In my free time I study two subjects in particular : neural networks and time series analysis (TSA). TSA is widely used in finance, but neural networks are still in research and applications in finance are a mystery. So I came to the conclusion : why not combine these two fields ? For those who love technical details, here is the architecture used on this first version :
- Time serie model (MA, ARMA or GARCH(1,1)) to make the currency easy to analyse
- A LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory) Neural Network which learn the features of the currency in order to "learn" his behavior (usually 98.6 accurate on a test set composed of 100 currencies)
- A gradient method to determine whether it is a good move to buy or to sell at the current moment
The intuitive part is that the bot will first learn how the currency is : is there high variations ? How import are pumps and drops ? Is there a tendency according the volume ? Then, the bot see how the value is going in a small frame of time (a few seconds) : if value is increasing, it sells, if value is decreasing, it buys. I hard-coded a drop limit, so if the currency loses around 20% of his value on short period before evaluation, the bot stops buying and automatically sells to preserve funds.
BTC About performances ?
To be honest, I don't think this method will make you win hundreds of dollars. The main idea when I conceived the bot was at least, it will pay my electricity bill
. As I said before, you can make up to $1 an hour, but the thing is it can fluctuate according to the currency but also on your bets. If you are afraid and prefer to see it in real time, I advise you to bet only with a few dozens of dollar, so you can see the bot interacting in real time.BTC What's next ?
Actually there are many things to do :
- Accuracy is good but the gain are still too small in my opinion, and I need to minimize as much as possible the risk to loose part of investment.
- The GUI is ugly : I can create a simple interface, but the black text on white background doesn't fit with the mood of trading
- I really love statistics behind financial markets, but the problem is my knowledge in programming, which is quite limited. If you would like to help me to create a more powerful program, that would be with pleasure
I am currently working on improvements, so I would like to know your feedbacks, I hope you will like it
.