CME and CBOE has an impact on the market as long as people like OP are paying attention to it and reacting with their real bitcoins to some wall street scammers which don't even hold any bitcoins.
Theoretically, yes. Based on how the market has reacted till now, it's safe to say that the noobs who do take CME and CBOE serious, haven't even managed to dent the market, so in this case dumb money is not a factor.It may change at a later point, but I doubt that unless the future volumes literally explode to levels at least 100x that of what they are currently. In other words, it just remains the gambling toy for no coiners.
Perhaps you are right and the effect is negligible, but I have a feeling the effects are not immediate. Every event like these futures made a lot of waves and surely affected how a lot of new people moved their money. It's funny to think that all these events, which aren't supposed to have an effect on Bitcoin economy, eventually do, thanks to mainstream media and finance experts pushing their agenda. Dumb money is as powerful as the connotation says, and we're partially guilty for continuing to downplay and underestimate the power of suggestion that seems to be able to move all this noob money quickly.
