Topic: Cointime Economics : Glassnode framework for Bitcoin on-chain metrics (Read 167 times)

I might be speculating too much here, but maybe ARK will use Glassnode's new metrics to monitor the on-chain activity used to run that fund?

As Ark Invest and 21Shares remain in pursuit of a spot bitcoin ETF, they’re also looking to bring three other crypto funds to market.

The new product proposals were submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission the same day the regulator chose to delay its decision on the companies’ ETF that would hold bitcoin directly. 

Empowered Funds, a subsidiary of white-label ETF platform Alpha Architect, is listed as the investment adviser of the proposed funds. 21Shares and Ark Invest would serve as sub-advisers.

One of the ETFs would invest in cash-settled bitcoin futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), according to an Aug. 11 filing. The planned offering — to be called Ark 21Shares Active Bitcoin Futures ETF (ARKA) — can also hold US Treasury securities, money market instruments and repurchase agreements.

A second proposed fund, the Ark 21Shares Active On-Chain Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ARKC), would similarly invest at least 25% in bitcoin futures contracts, or ARKA — and the remaining assets to cash and cash equivalents.

But unlike ARKA, the so-called on-chain fund uses a proprietary trend indicator to formulate its allocation strategy by determining whether the bitcoin (BTC) market trend is bullish or bearish. Inputs to the trend indicator could include historical price data or on-chain data, the document adds.

Fortunately, it is not because on-chain metris are useless or incorrect, it is because you are impatient and think market will move up or down after on-chain metrics show some signals of whale plans.

the only non market price stat that i have found that indicates a future strength of a better market in the future.. is mining cost.

the most efficient mining cost on the planet sets the base wholesale VALUE, to which the spot market retail PRICE then speculates above(ontop)

For years I have seen Glassnode analyzes and some on Twitter give forecasts and analyzes based on On-chain Analyst, but have we got a philosophy or theory that gives useful results for these analyzes? I see that technical analysis gives better results and predictions for the direction of supply and demand than On-chain Analyst.
If you could simplify the concepts Glassnode is showing or point me to a place I can read more about it I would appreciate it, many times I tried to understand their analysis and ended up without any knowledge.

But we can follow some on-chain metrics to get an idea about bitcoin prices.

Eg :

1. Exchange volumes

2. Btc addresses

If that report can predict the price of Bitcoin with the help of those indicators in a accurate way then that would be a really nice addition in Bitcoin-sphere.

Ark invest, together with Glassnode just released a monumental paper to develop a new economics framework for analyzing Bitcoin on-chain metrics, called Cointime Economics


This 128 pages report has been in the working singe two years by Glassnode Lead On-chain Analyst

The report analysed a series of new on-chain methods for evaluating bitcoin price and activity.

I will dig into this report trying to outline the most significative indicators.

We introduce Cointime Economics, a new framework for the analysis of the Bitcoin economy. It relates the concepts of time and supply to derive dynamic metrics of Bitcoins economic activity which account for both supply and demand forces.