We recently have a lot of activity on our regular "next difficulty prediction"
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/
bet against difficulty >31B at odds of 3.5. Note that from the current difficulty data odds should be more like 2. (50%/50%).
Some sources that predict the difficulty and their current prediction:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty: 31,109,256,240
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php: 29,611,949,922
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php: 29,804,000,000
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history: 30171493992
Thus all sites (in exception of bitcoinwisdom) predict a difficulty of <31B that would bring you 3.5 times your money back.
Topic: Collection and comparison of difficulty prediction (Read 1828 times)
I guess it is a good time to start to discuss the reliabilities of the predictions:
Someone just placed a prediction of 100mBTC on: next difficulty NOT > 10B on our site http://www.fairlay.com
According to the current data this is very unlikely to happen. I wonder if anyone is willing to take the other side.
The drawback: you have to spend 20mBTC to win one 1mBTC:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-10b/
Someone just placed a prediction of 100mBTC on: next difficulty NOT > 10B on our site http://www.fairlay.com
According to the current data this is very unlikely to happen. I wonder if anyone is willing to take the other side.
The drawback: you have to spend 20mBTC to win one 1mBTC:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-10b/
Ok - finally the outcome is: 8,853,416,309 and the winner from this round is clearly bitcoinwisdom.com
I wonder how http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ comes up with there number.
The way cryptanalys.is seems to me like a very conservative estimate because it did not expect growth thus I wonder why the prediction of http://bitcoindifficulty.com is even below.
The way cryptanalys.is seems to me like a very conservative estimate because it did not expect growth thus I wonder why the prediction of http://bitcoindifficulty.com is even below.
@kickbit
interesting, while all other predictions has gone down (more or less) yours is going up. Could you explain why?
I am excited to see the outcome.
interesting, while all other predictions has gone down (more or less) yours is going up. Could you explain why?
I am excited to see the outcome.
We started a prediction on the next difficulty:
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/next-difficulty-8-9b/
Maybe we will create some "show accounts" for each site that will predict on fairlay according to the prediction of the site. Would be interesting what site would make the most profit.
https://www.fairlay.com/bet/registered/new/next-difficulty-8-9b/
Maybe we will create some "show accounts" for each site that will predict on fairlay according to the prediction of the site. Would be interesting what site would make the most profit.
Take a look at http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php
Nice site - but I can not find a prediction?
Thanks for the two additions.
kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction?
kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction?
Yes, it described here: http://mining-profit.com/faq
Q: How does the tool calculate the growth of difficulty, exchange rate and other values?
A: The calculation of all the values, which have to be forecasted, is based on historical data using statisctical methods and regression analysis.
It depends on growth dynamics.
Take a look at http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/difficultytracker.php
Thanks for the two additions.
kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction?
kickbit: Can you explain how you came up with your prediction?
Hey,
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history
I'm improving it's functionality. And it has good accuracy of estimation.
http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history
I'm improving it's functionality. And it has good accuracy of estimation.
market-based long term: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=B.MINE
- This should be a collection (and later a analysis and comparison) of sites predicting the difficulty.
| Algorithm based | 06.05.2014 | 07.05.2014 | 08.05.2014 | 09.05.2014 | 10.05.2014 | 11.06.2014 | RESULT |
| https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty | 8,762,705,629 | 8,899,837,599 | 8,798,697,249 | 8,784,935,930 | 8,850,210,274 | 8,989,467,782 | 8,853,416,309 |
| https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php | 8,532,130,046 | 8,626,540,337 | 8,673,745,483 | 8,716,150,105 | 8,816,961,094 | 8,885,768,594 | 8,853,416,309 |
| http://bitcoindifficulty.com | 8,312,271,851 | 8,430,367,515 | 8,490,911,314 | 8,568,015,201 | 8,685,202,565 | 8,871,741,554 | 8,853,416,309 |
| http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,926,573,042 | 8,853,416,309 |
| http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history | 9,040,985,512 | 9,040,985,512 | 9,120,994,233 | 9,120,994,233 | 9,120,994,233 | 9,201,002,955 | 8,853,416,309 |
| Algorithm based round 2 | 13.05.2014 | 14.05.2014 | 15.05.2014 | 16.05.2014 | 17.05.2014 | 19.05.2014 | 20.05.2014 | 21.05.2014 |
| https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty | 10,030,821,324 | 10,028,867,813 | 10,208,652,199 | 10,434,069,047 | 10,538,783,277 | 10,438,507,666 | 10,677,431,706 | 10,586,093,942 |
| https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php | 9,568,772,347 | 9,818,438,687 | 10,200,906,271 | 10,463,852,736 | 10,326,624,783 | 10,325,739,441 | 10,465,623,419 | 10,435,521,803 |
| http://bitcoindifficulty.com | 8,863,020,907 | 9,057,771,301 | 9,377,412,197 | 9,811,836,627 | 9,818,273,212 | 9,850,345,488 | 10,062,752,940 | 10,177,117,543 |
| http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history | 10,358,497,081 | 10,092,894,592 | 10,269,962,918 | 10,447,031,244 | 10,358,497,081 | 10,358,497,081 | 10,447,031,244 | 10,358,497,081 |
Market based (short term):
- http://www.futureblock.com/
parimutuel betting system, thus no real prediction market
Market based (long term):
- https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=B.MINE
- https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/
This is our site, thus others should evaluate it - https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-network-difficulty
very low activity - http://bitbet.us/bet/677/bitcoin-network-difficulty-14bn-on-bastille-day/
it is only one example for difficulty related bets, parimutuel betting system, thus no real prediction market
Blogs/ Forum:
- https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/total-hashrate-forecast-q1-q2-2014-community-work-387533
focus on collecting information of expected miner shipping
Would be happy to complete this collection.[/list]
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