Topic: Comparing bitcoin halvings - 2012 to 2020 - and now looking ahead to 2024 (Read 310 times)

I am amused. An interesting exercise, good work.

As we are approaching the next halving I thought it might be interesting to revisit this thread to see how the predictions worked out.

I've updated Table 6 to show the predictions vs the actuals and compare the accuracy:



Key observations:
a. the post-halving high came much sooner than expected and was slightly lower (-9%) than predicted but still over 90% accurate!
b. the relative increase (halving to halving) was actually more or less on-prediction at ~8x vs the ~9x predicted
c. the low was actually a lot higher (by 22%) than predicted
d. although the low was early compared to the predicted date, this was almost entirely due to the high itself being early, the time from high to low was almost exact at 376 days vs 388 predicted

Looking ahead to the halving in 2024 and the hoped for subsequent high, if the trend continues:
i. the high will be about 2-2.5 times the price at the halving
ii. the high will arrive about 12-18 months after the halving
iii. the subsequent low will be about 12 months after the high

I'll update again once we have reached the halving and we know the actual dates and values.

None of this constitutes financial advice and is just for amusement!

In what way will it improve it?  Copper is actually a superior conductor of electricity than gold, see for example here: https://www.bluesea.com/resources/108/Electrical_Conductivity_of_Materials

I read about that asteroid at the time, and whilst I agree it exists I don't think we are anywhere near having the technological capability to do anything about it.

As for the "3 superrich dudes" ... firstly because they are extraordinarily vain, and secondly because they see a financial return and not necessarily from mining asteroids.

As posted above I am not invested in it in any sense ... it was merely an interesting intellectual exercise.

And yes, I am sure you are right when comparing limited supply vs unlimited demand, but we clearly don't have unlimited demand and I am unsure what is going to create it?

Dude make gold as common as copper and the worlds electrical systems improve so much it would be hard to,scale.

why do you think 3 superrich dudes are doing space launches.

google asteroid with gold and read that one single known  asteroid  has way more than 50x the worlds known supply.

divert it to the moon and endless solar power is buildable.

simple  but not easy peasy.

long term gold is worth less than silver based on the amount known on that one particular asteroid.

and gold is such a good e
conductors

Regarding the mining equipment price war - yes and so does everyone else who says "Every previous halving has looked like x therefore this one will too."

Remember this is simply about trying to do a more rigorous assessment and comparison of the previous halvings and seeing if we could roll it forward onto this one.  I'm not in any way invested in it as a prediction, indeed I'd be delighted if bitcoin leaped to $250k (or any other massive number anyone likes to propose) ... more than delighted, I'd be ecstatic!

Regarding asteroid mining - not in our lifetimes, we're decades away from having that capability.  Moreover, even if we could mine asteroids, why would we mine them for gold?  Its hardly the most essential element we are short of, and mining it in any volume would crash the price here, to very little benefit.

Not just the price at the time of halving, even low or high are not enough parameters to predict about the future. Yeah, all your calculations will become invalid when one more intuition will be deciding to invest billions of dollars with long term plans (I am confident about more corporates will copy the business model of microstartegy for sure).

I remember someone wrote here on speculations like "FOMO is not limited to any formula". Hence, all speculations are done for just informative purposes and not for exact predictions.

We all know what a limited supply will do against unlimited demand. Just follow that.

First off you leave out the price war between bitmain and spondoolies this was the s5 and the sp10

the companies sold them fast and cheap driving down the price of coin from nov 2014 to jan 2015

it is also why the ½ ing was 3 years and 7 months vs 3 years and 10 months next time.

Since part of these factors are left out it partially negates the theory you have.


This ½ ing  you are leaving out holy covid we all going to die concept.

It really alters the growth rate of mining gear.

In principle I do agree that the ½ ings will have less influence but other factors have meaning.

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As for the idea the asset is now too big and cant grow much.

Gold is on its way out as a storage of wealth.
asteroid mining ⛏ may make gold common.
so all gold holders may need to shift to an asset such as BTC for wealth storage.

Gold is about 8 trillion so BTC could gain as the shift happens over the next few years.

Well, but I do not agree that the price at the time of halving is a significant one to consider unlike what we usually do with high and low price levels in between 2 halving event. I guess if you go with low happened before first halving and then high after first halving then you may need to re-evaluate everything which might be getting us a complete set of new ATH in 2022.

Overall, I am not convinced with your predicted ATH for current cycle. Anyway, time will answer and let's see what is going to happen and how much respect bitcoin market is able to provide to its own past history of events.

Well, at least there's a figure that we could assume what would be the future price if history would repeat itself. I know Bitcoin is always unpredictable but with that figure we could assume anywhere near of that price would be the next price target. I can't believe how low it gets when it hits the bottom if we compare it from the chart although I believe it may not be that accurate but the bottom would be closer to that price. Fud and Fomo will change the outcome of those predicted price plus the price manipulation of whales if they have to. It would depends on all individual if they would follow the chart or let the future decide.

A few days from now, 2021 is about to end. Then here comes the 2022, another 2 years in the wait for the next halving to come. That won't be that far anymore as the time seems to be quicker every time we're too busy with the market.

$75k-$100k by next year by Q2 sounds good to everyone of us. Whether the cycle would be the same or not, the reality is that bitcoin is really bound to go up regardless of the trends and cycles and that's the pattern of what halving gives to it.

I have edited the original post to tidy up the tables and make them easier to read (I hope).  The word wrapping was annoying me.

(There is no change to any of the content.)

The feeling of saturation is indeed there especially when we feel that we have lost a lot of our assets but we ourselves should not despair because everything will return to normal even though they can predict all of that, sometimes something happens beyond our expectations because we really don't know how to expect bitcoin. in our future.

I would say that even if we take that 68k or so level as the ATH, we are going to be pretty much safe to assume that it always has a great return. Anyone who buys at the halving will end up profiting by this calculation. I can't say the same thing since I do not know if that will be the case, but I know that it will definitely be something that is decent and will profit us 90%+ of the time.

Halving are also losing a bit of power as well, back in the day when a halving happened the price could increase a lot more because we were dropping very significantly and the remaining would become still quite high, so the part that got halved was pretty significant (in number of bitcoin) as well. Nowadays we have less bitcoin anyway, and halving would make it even less, but the price is higher so it would mean that it would require a lot more money to increase it as well.

Re. the bit in bold - I don't agree.  The purpose of the analysis on the OP was to try to model the halving cycle trend and forecast what this cycle would look like if that trend continued - that's what led to the "prediction" - if the trend continues we'll see about $77k in June.

(I hesitate to call it an actual prediction, as its just extrapolating forward from a couple of data points.)

Personally I don't think there is a real trend here and each "cycle" (if there really is such a thing) is as likely to resemble another one as not. 

2024 and next halving is too far away. We either continue on the same cycle trend which means price has a lot more to gain before it starts crashing down or this marks the end of the 4-year cycles in which case we are still going to see rises but not nearly as much. $100k by first half of 2022 would my guess in second scenario.

Not year by year but every after the halving.

If we're going to say that the increase would be year by year, 2018 wasn't so good that by that year, it's a long bear market that has made everyone disappointed that looks down on the market.

@OPs prediction for 2022 is likely but I'm looking forward after the next halving by 2024.

yhup that's how very optimistic bitcoin is wherein despite of some situation that can drag the price down it's still growing and breaking all time high..for me if i owned large amount of BTC i will keep holding even in such situation because i know after how many years it still at the top and will become very expensive in the future compared now it's proven and tested since 2016 when i was new in the space. 

The only one thing is for sure is that Bitcoin is increasing year by year that's why i did not use some of my assets for my expenses cause i know that Bitcoin will show more in the next few years, it is worth waiting for if we know that there is worth waiting for.

Yes, at some point this uberly-expected trend is going to break; but the question is that — is this the cycle that’s going to break the trend? Or would it be the next one? ..or maybe, we actually stop getting these “cycles” at some point.

Well, I agree, I'm definitely extrapolating far beyond what the data truly supports, however, as I said above some long-term steady growth would be great.  Of course a parabolic rise to half a million bucks would also be OK.

I'm not really convinced that follows - we recently broke the $66k "top" and only went to $69k, so its perfectly possible for bitcoin to exceed a previous high by a little and then fall back.

Regarding this cycle vs previous ones: what I think we might be starting to see is a smoothing out of the waves in the four-year cycle and a move towards a steadier mode of price discovery.  Obviously if we get another 84% drop after the high then that argument will be utterly crushed!

Whether this analysis proves right or not I do think it would be positive in the long run for Bitcoin to move away from massive-steep-rise-followed-by-massive-steep-fall towards slow steady incremental increases over time.

But I'd also add, I'm not presenting this as some magical forecast that I'm wholly invested in, it's simply looking at some data and showing a contrast to those people who say "we haven't had a parabolic rise like we had before, so we haven't seen the top yet", maybe there won't be one this time.

a great record for gauging the future price of bitcoin. if this condition can be real it is very likely that in 2022 bitcoin can penetrate the new ATH. This note can be applied in short-term and long-term trading.

Hey, great post but:


I think it doesn't matter what data you have. You can't predict future price behavior. Models can give you an idea, but this is not an algorithm. We've seen enough models fail this year, and with the stock market it's the same thing. Models are useful to get an idea, and better to explain the past than to predict the future, which, when they do, is usually more by chance than by causality.

Too many things can happen in the real world that are not included in the models and influence the price.

The trend is clear but I don't think that it is necessarily fair to extrapolate this into future performance.

Bitcoin is getting saturated for sure as institutional adoption has already happened and retail investors are already well aware.

There will still be long term growth, but definitely don't expect anything crazy like we've seen over the past decade.

yes, it is. at least his next ATH target is 77k, which for me is very possible to happen. would like to remember this thread next year and see where we are at his chart. the 100k prediction before the year ends seems going far.
but who knows, in this market, we are always surprised by what things turned out to be? anyway, everyone can make his own prediction chart accdg to the factors he wants in play. so more then likely, this will just be one of those speculative charts that we will encounter of

This kind of prediction is more on the reality than for those random people who keep telling above $200,000 prediction or even $100,000 on the end of 2021.
With this kind of basis, the year 2022 and basis is bitcoin block halving which is already proven for the period of time, this is more realistic. Healthy price action will result in a positive run.

I can share it also here the countdown for Bitcoin block halvings: https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Understand the charts and they may be logical, but the problem remains in estimating the top, which seems very little, as we tested the level of $68k, which means that if we break that top, we will not stop at $77k as you remember.
Also, in the previous halving, the price rose from 10k to 20k in a short time, and therefore it is logical to say that the rise from 70 thousand to 140k will be very fast.

In general, this cycle appears to be special and may be different from the previous ones or break the pattern.

The Bitcoin price increased from 10K to 35K USD several months after the halving.The price increase was caused by bullish news about Microstrategy and Paypal adopting BTC,so the halving didn't have a direct impact.
I remember that there was a small price pump before the 2020 halving,which ended after the halving.
Anyway,I don't believe that the June 2022 BTC price will be the same as the January 2022 BTC price.
A 6 months time frame is just too long for a volatile asset like BTC to maintain a stable price.
Bitcoin Halvings don't have a direct influence over the Bitcoin price.Actually their influence is decreasing even further.The 2024 BTC halving won't matter at all for the 2024 Bitcoin price.
 

Lets hope your calculation and prediction would be correct.

I might be having a wrong vision, but I remember, a lot of people awaited, that after halving Bitcoin price would immediately grow. But last year, such thing did not happen. And as I remember, price of Bitcoin was in "sort of a depression" last year. So most were disappointed with halving or with the whole year. I think that same thing will happen with next halving. Price wont really change. The price on "5 June 2022" is going to be the same as the price of Bitcoin on December 2021-January 2022.

Comparing the halvings.

This is an expanded version of a post from the Sumer dip price guessing thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58567206

The thread compares and contrasts bitcoin price behaviour between the three halvings we have seen so far: 2012, 2016 and (partly) 2020.

First some basic data:



Note, there is a bit of rounding in prices, dates, etc.

The first point of interest is that the halvings are somewhat less than the expected four years apart – 2016 was 3 years and 7 months after the 2012 halving; 2020 was 3 years and 10  months after 2016.  This is not entirely surprising as there has been a pretty steady increase in hashrate over Bitcoin’s life and so mostly each difficulty adjustment will have arrived early.

Next, let’s consider what proportion of the total supply had been mined at the date of each halving:



Key point here is that because the rate of emission halves each time, the number of coins affected gets rapidly smaller: and the proportion of new coins issued, starts to become trivial: in the current epoch less than 7% of the total supply will be mined against the 88% already mined and in circulation.  Accordingly the impact of each halving is likely to be smaller and potentially take longer.

If we add in the subsequent highs and lows after each halving:



As expected much higher highs, and significantly higher lows.

But add in the time taken to reach the highs and the relative increases (over the price at halving):



We can see that the high takes longer to arrive: 526 days vs 366 or 1.44x longer
And the relative increase has reduced: 103x vs 30x or about 29% of the increase

For completeness add in similar figures for the following lows:



Interesting to see that the falls are very similar, if anything faster after the 2016 halving, but the impact almost identical  (note they aren't actually identical its just the rounding took them both to 84%).

So can we use this data to predict the highs and lows for this halving?

Probably not … 😉 … there are really only two data points here which isn’t enough to draw a proper projection, but let’s do it anyway.

If we assume:
a.   Each high takes 1.44x as long to arrive after the halving as the one before;
b.   Each high is proportionately 30% as great as the one before;
c.   Lows take about a year to arrive (388 days is the average) after the high
d.   Lows result in an 84% drop
We get the following, predictions are in BLUE



So in short:

First I don’t think there is enough data to use the prior halvings to predict future halvings, but if we are going to try to do that we ought to at least use the data we have.  The data we have suggests that the impact of each halving will be smaller than the one before, as the proportion of the total supply that is affected by the halving reduces over time.

Extrapolating forward from the 2012 and 2016 halving suggests that the next “high” will be in June 2022 and will be around $77,000.

Here’s the whole post summarised in a handy chart (with thanks to mikeywith for the underlying chart to which I added this speculation):




(Edited to tidy up the tables and stop the wrapping which was annoying me.)