Comparing the Feb/March rally (to 300) to this one

koryu

hero member

Activity: 681

Merit: 507

Quote from: 8up on July 10, 2015, 10:17:27 AM

True, but this time it's different. People won't sell as easily. The log downtrend is broken for just a few days. Everybody waited for this to happen. Why would I sell after I hold out through all the mess? See you soon @700

this!
we broke all downtrends this time and have a new situation. nobody can say what will happen but I feel way more confident holding bitcoin right now.

Amph

legendary

Activity: 3248

Merit: 1070

i think they were waiting for an excuse to do this really, grexit and ltc are good excuse to start the pump, and get many newbie in

it cannot be explained in other way, it was so random so suddenly...

8up

hero member

Activity: 618

Merit: 500

True, but this time it's different. People won't sell as easily. The log downtrend is broken for just a few days. Everybody waited for this to happen. Why would I sell after I hold out through all the mess? See you soon @700

pawel7777

legendary

Activity: 2436

Merit: 1561

Quote from: jehst on July 10, 2015, 09:41:42 AM

Feb/March rally had higher volume on the rise. And there was no Grexit or international events happening then. Thus, I don't think this current rally is based on more people rushing into bitcoin as some sort of safe harbor.

Where did you get your volume data from?

Looking at blockchain's USD volume chart it seems that volumes are on similar level:

https://blockchain.info/charts/trade-volume?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Quote from: jehst on July 10, 2015, 09:41:42 AM

Conclusion: This rally is considerably less healthy than the Feb/March rally.

Depends, if the Greeks are significant part of this rally (and Greek exchange had noticeable increase in deposits) then this one should be much healthier (as they would be buying long term, as a store of value rather than quick fiat profit).

jehst

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

Feb/March rally had higher volume on the rise. And there was no Grexit or international events happening then. Thus, I don't think this current rally is based on more people rushing into bitcoin as some sort of safe harbor.

Feb/March rally had lower interest rates on Bitfinex USD swaps, which means that people are borrowing more now (or less cash is available). This supports the idea that this rally is not being caused by outside money, but rather by the same old group of people overextending themselves as usual.

Current rally has been propped up to some extent by LTC bubble. Many people entered LTC by first buying BTC (and will exit LTC by first buying BTC).

Conclusion: This rally is considerably less healthy than the Feb/March rally.

I don't have any predictions. My predictions are always wrong. Just my observations.

Topic: Comparing the Feb/March rally (to 300) to this one (Read 619 times)