Topic: Comparison of gambling and betting on resistance to outcome manipulation (Read 414 times)

I have already answered similar arguments here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.64962361
and here https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.64962750


From my point of view, on the contrary, it is technically easier to negotiate. Another issue is that it's easier to hide fraud if you act alone, as in the example you described. Otherwise, the circle of insiders is wider and the risk of information leakage is higher. However, do not forget that these individuals are highly motivated to keep their fraudulent activities secret.

How you can be so sure they use random algorithm in gambling? you can't just believe they use SHA256, RNG etc and verified by gambling association, if you can't verify every of your bets, there's no guarantee they use random algorithm.

What if they have personal setting like this user win 20 times and lose 30 times, this user win 10 times and lose 40 times with 1 scatter etc.

Manipulation is easier in gambling, because they only need to do by themselves.

While manipulation in betting, they need to bribe anyone, like association, referee, coach, players etc.

I hope it was implemented so well because it was already rampant and most of us know already. But I don't see the authority trying to take strong actions that make the results fairer and more trustworthy, as you have said. 

If you are a rich person, winning is not luck for you but some kind of manipulation. Well, poor people don't have money to give the inside, which makes them still reliant on luck. 

Certainly, we don't want to have this kind of environment, but unfortunately, money is more powerful today than conscience. 

Lol.
If you read about previous US elections, you can learn a lot of interesting things. Honestly, I think this applies to all countries (or at least most of them). Politicians always lie.
About the top leagues - even VAR does not give you 100% fair play. Every season we see the referee panel decide that the referee made a mistake after VAR. The only thing we can`t say if it was just mistake or paid manipulation. Of course chance of such situation much lower than in low leagues, but it is.

In sports betting or betting on some other events apart from match, we know that there are still some games that can not be rigged, like the US election. Nothing like inside information in so many of those events that are being bet on.  For sports betting, it knows that only the low league that can be manipulated but top leagues like premiere can not be possible to manipulate scores. In gambling too (casino games) you can not tell when the casino is manipulating scores and when they are not and the reason is because the house have high chance of the player.

I think all sports games can be easily manipulated as long as there is someone who is in charge of making decisions on foul. Also players actions cannot be controlled. If a player was bribed to carry out any inner actions then it cannot be controlled by the referees. Unless the act was later spotted out by the officials after the game. Of course there will be penalty for his actions. At least that is why i like the fact that those who have the intention of manipulating sports games one way or another are doing it very careful or not doing at all because of the penalty that is involved. The players might just end his career if caught in one day.

Yeah, i think i said something similar to this in another thread. There is still some little manipulations going on in sports game these days and its difficult to spot out or come out to say we are certain it happened. The only thing we can do is to say we observe something fishy in the game. And the reason why things are like this is because those involved in the manipulation are men in the high seats. Men with strong influence who can manipulate games to keep getting wealthy.

Not all football team go as far as looking for favor from the referees. In most cases the referee are passionate about a particular club. So, anytime they get to be officiating a match that the club is playing they get to favor the club literally. Dont you think even the referees has their favorite club? I know they are also a fan.

Yes that is the fact although we can't say that other in-house games are not manipulated that is a lie, the truth is that football as an example of the most manipulative game is listed on the sports section so yes sports games still represent the highest manipulated games around, although we are now seeing some alertness when some games are held, still at that we can't say that the entire time of playing is without one form of manipulation or the other, it's either the referee awards a wrong penalty or cancel a goal unjustly, so this happens all the time in sports games.

Of course sport betting has chances to be manipulated  for instance when a team buys the referee to their side he would just be looking for reasons to foul the opponent and give the team that bought him you know more free kicks, and penalties just like that. 

Even with the VAR referee might still stay ignorant to the team that paid him, so this is one instance to manipulate football sport game. But since it's a live match with certain circumstances beyond human control like a player fainting on the field, a match can be suspended by these and planned manipulations can be distorted. But yes sport betting is prone to manipulation compared to gambling and casino games based on luck.

It depends on the type of sporting events that will determine if it can be subject to manipulation by the officiating body or anyone who takes part in it. For a sporting event like football, how can you tell that the outcome is manipulated when you are basically watching everything live as the events are progressing and due to the fact that football has faced criticisms of manipulations in the past made the football body to introduce the goal line technology and the VAR. All these features were put in place in order to present fairness and unbiased judgements which can lead to manipulation. I do not argue that there is no manipulation in sporting events but it is minimal and doesn't occur often because if anyone is caught in manipulating the outcome of a sporting event, they already know how severe the consequences is.

You are getting things mixed up here, like he said he wasn't directly calling or referring to a particular gambling site rather than making a generalization comments on sports games and casino games.
And of course I understand what he is saying about how sports games are mostly manipulated than other games especially football and basketball are the most common games they usually compromised their overall outcome. Then when you referred to casino we can assume the outcome depends on site how fair enough they could be on their games to determine your results.

I think it is true that betting on sports is more likely to be manipulated than gambling. Big sports events can be fixed or influenced by people with inside information. But gambling which is mostly based on chance is little bit harder to manipulate. It is difficult to control outcome of game of chance. It is interesting that when luck plays smaller role cheating is more likely to happen. This shows that we need rules and supervision to prevent cheating in sports betting.

Both can be manipulated; even events can be manipulated. It depends on who is going to manipulate and what kind of events,
We have seen how sports betting can be manipulated and subjected to game fixing.
Where there is money and betting involved, there is a possibility of manipulation; small leagues and small events can easily be manipulated because they are out of the radar of the organizations that oversee the outcomes and the actions of all the teams and participants involved.

We know that in this era of fraud and manipulation in sports has actually become an open secret, even in football there is often controversy over the referee's leadership which is actually unreasonable especially if it is clear that they are trying to win a team, even sometimes players can also be involved in manipulation such as deliberately scoring own goals, getting cards and so on, along with the development of gambling today, I don't see any sport that is not separated from the bookies and we can even see how nowadays casinos or gambling platforms are the main sponsors of the sport, so I think for now we can't deny that in sports, the influence of politics, gambling and corruption has been very integrated and it really has an impact on integrity and sportsmanship so far.

Gambling and sports betting existed long before the advent of online casinos. Accordingly, as an example, there is no RNG in real roulette, the code of which can be changed. Just like now, a hundred years ago it was much easier to arrange, for example, contractual fist fights than to make the roulette ball stop at zero or throw five sixes on the dice. In an "idealized system" we compare, for example, an honest casino and an honest bookmaker for the stability of their functioning to external interference. If we additionally take into account in the "idealized system" such an unpredictable element as fraud (cheating with RNG) in gambling, we will not be able to detect any patterns at all.

I've got several remarks about this issue and it's been confirmed that the bettings are been crazily manipulated.Ordinarily,these games are supposed to be a bit predictable and untampered for an uninterrupted gaming experience.I Keep asking myself why the operators or manipulators decides to depict wrong and unexpected results.
The thoughts of getting the games manipulated influences the winning chances and revolts the strategies applied.

Good point, OP. You are correct; the less luck influences the results, the more likely there will always be interested parties. Sports games, and therefore their results, can be manipulated. We see this in the stories of fixed matches, and we should not always trust the honest "kitchen" of the teams' lives. One game in which the leading team gives up the game to another weak team, showing the appearance of a random loss, will create manipulation and, therefore, unexpected results for those who place a bet. But no one should know about this, only a few, those who are interested in such an outcome. All this is difficult to achieve in gambling, where it is difficult to develop any strategy, and only random results represent the game's results.

I initially assumed that we were comparing legal activities, not shady game providers, with clandestine bookmakers, as it would be pointless. The activities of gambling providers are licensed, i.e. controlled to some extent. Of course, you may suspect that there are risks of corruption there. Well, I might suspect the same thing about controlling the major leagues. If this is not an argument enough, then let's remember that there are provably fair gambling games. And, of course, there is an offline casino, to which the hypothetical unreliability of game providers simply has nothing to do. If we compare an offline casino and a football match, which is easier: intentionally miss a goal, or intentionally not score a goal, or make the roulette ball stop at a certain number? The answer is obvious.

If casino cheats with random games, i think it would be one more kind of manipulation. In such situation we have no chance to avoid it. But we still in the game, both "fair" casino games and "manipulated" sport betting and even getting profit from it. It means, that even in manipulated gambling we can win, but it would be better to calculate such risk during the research before betting.

I agrees with you, if gambling or sport betting had been seen being manipulated, then many would have lost interest form doing it, because they know that is will always be for the interest or benefits of some set of people.

We are expected to see gambling beyond the way others are tsking it, this have to do with having the consideration on it large networks, numerous involvements and activities related to gambling in which ma people across the world are doing and lots of more other benefits gambling is sourcing out to the people, which does not warrant for having the thought of getting it manipulated upon a particular game.

I'm not sure about that to be honest, because when there is an upset, surprising statistics during a sport event for example an outsider, it's more likely that something shaddy as happened behind the curtains. But when surprising statistics happen at gambling games, we can't easily know if it's because of bad luck, for a long losing streak for example, or because of game is rigged.

You're right more especially in football game you know sometime before an event will even start they know what will be the outcome of the event I mean scores, is already been fixed by the organizers this is why sometimes let's say they have already fixed the outcome of  a particular event even before the kick off time.  let's say the event just started you know when they discover that the strength of both teams are not equal maybe the strength of team A is bigger than the strength of team B mean while they have fixed the game to end with a score of draw at this point what they do is that, they will be looking for any slightest mistake from the stronger team so as  to book them for a red card just to balance the strength they will just look for a way to manipulate it just to make sure that it works according to their prediction. I think they always work with the referees.

There are already arguments online pointing at how corrupt the sport especially football and boxing, can be, but there is no solid proof to back those claims up.

From now on, it is obvious that some match results appear to be manipulated. I can also agree with others that there is some level of manipulation in sport where the upper hands can easily manipulate the outcome of a game up to a certain level, which they could either influence it through the officials or those who will be in action that day to make the game work.

Isn't sports betting another type of gambling? Are you saying those that depend on RNG are least susceptible to manipulation?  I do not think so since this kind of gambling are computer generated, or affected by the code embedded to it, I believe they are both co-equal in terms of possibly being manipulated.

Just think, the random based results can be manipulated in just a bunch of code that will affect the outcome of the game, same way sports betting result can be manipulated by insiders of the sports where the game can be rigged to end in what they desired result of the end game.

Every gambling games can have ways to be manipulated so I believe there is nothing like being some games to be more susceptible to manipulation since manipulation is dependent on the host of the game.

I believe most people here who are of age 35 or more remember very well the 2002 World Cup in Korea S. and Japan where the referee one from Chili or Ecuador don't remember now clearly favored the Korean team to pass through the quarter final or 1/16 whichever the phase was. The referee was sentenced by FIFA with eternal ban as he clearly accepted that he got a huge pay in order to influence that event which I still remember even 20 years or more later. Next we have had scandal of football in Italy Serie A in 2006 in the so called "Calciopoli" where the leading teams of Serie A was influencing the outcome of many games through the referees, one sentence that I remember from the spying by the government there was the president of a big team that said in a phone conversation to one referee, "so how did you like the Rolex I sent you as a gift" and that was the culmination of match fixing for me.

Well, op you could be right in your hypothesis about sports betting been susceptible to high frequency of influence and
manipulation of outcomes mainly with the use of techs like the VAR in deciding certain situations in a game it even becomes more easier for those behind those VARS to make see whatever they choose to make viewers to see.

Sports games manipulation was  earlier confined to be a thing that is known with small and unpopular leagues but recently we are now having those topples of manipulations and influence in certain games even in major leagues in Europe and this  like I had said above is done through the use of VAR or the central referee through a controversial design of event on the field of play. And these are professionally done in ways we can't easily discern.

What “sporty bet” you are referring to? It seems you are not familiar on sports betting with this kind of question.

I will assume sports betting on your statement, it’s not a firm rather just a form of gambling that involves sports which most casino offer nowadays. The OP title is just confusing since he categorized casino games as gambling gambling while betting is not gambling which in reality both gambling.

Both sports betting and casino games are same being offered by casino at the same time.

Theirs something I want to understand concerning gambling, the thing I understand of gambling is that, neither sporty bet or not in gambling what will happen will surely happen...I to ask this question, is a sporty bet the largest firm in the gambling, because theirs nothing we will discuss or analysis concerning gambling that we will not make mentioned of sporty bet, whereas we have other firms that is involve in gambling. But people doesn't make mention of them, in gambling, I want people ro understand that gambling is a game of understanding and if you don't understand it very well you will you say the particular gambling site is not fair with you.thats the ethics I find in the gambling.

Though we can't actually tell what is happening behind the scene. These sports can be manipulated.. players can be paid off, officials csn be bribed to take sides. Even though we don't see these things, sometimes there are in play. Sport betting is more vulnerable to manipulation compared to gambling. We can easily predict these games just by looking at past events and players strengths. The high level of randomness in gambling serves as a natural protection against external manipulation.. though the house mostly have the edges to win compared to the players.

Talking about the realm of manipulation in gambling is actually not really open to the public openly. This is just an assumption that everyone has and including me personally also have similar thoughts. But in the end we still bet to dismiss the suspicion of a manipulation system. Believe me out there or wherever this manipulation activity is I'm sure there is, but we are very limited to understand it if it is not part of both parties who agree.

As some people say there is no place for politics in sport, but we all realize that there is politics and corruption and deliberate abuse in sport. It is difficult to answer the question of whether gambling or betting on events (not just sports) is more vulnerable, as we cannot reliably know what happens to the gambling payout distribution algorithm and whether it can be influenced. Personally, I admit that it could be vulnerable too.

Gambling games(3rd party games) usually has a close source which means a shady game providers can easily manipulate the outcome without anyone notice the scam while on sports betting everyone is watching the same game which is very hard to manipulate the result even match fixing.

Match fixing is only possible on lower league while it’s hard to do on popular league since there’s a committee monitoring the game.

Assuming we are just comparing what’s the easiest to manipulate I think casino games is much as easier than sports betting due to the close source nature of 3rd party games.

Right. Of course, I can't say this definitively on a case-by-case basis. This is just a generalized conclusion that the risk of manipulation in betting is much higher than, for example, in a casino. But I doubt that there are fewer risks in popular sports and high-level competitions. Here I would draw such an analogy: "If you want to hide something, then put it in the most visible place."

Or another analogy. For example, there is no economic sense in counterfeiting cheap cigarettes or alcohol. They fake expensive cigarettes and very expensive alcohol. The majority of the population is unable to distinguish a fake. For one simple reason, they can't compare because they've never consumed a real product.
This analogy should be understood not literally, but in the sense that the more brazen the lie, the more people will believe in it. For example, the higher the level of a sporting event, the more audacious an attempt at manipulation will seem. People will think, "No, this can't be happening, because this is the championship!" The championship is just an example. By the way, the technology of ridiculing "conspiracy theories" is based on the same reaction of "reality rejection"... and after a while it turns out that this was not a "conspiracy theory" but the virus was indeed of artificial origin (this is about Covid).

Wouldn't it be on events? Like there's a lot more that can be swayed/affected by various pressures (political, social, etc) compared to sports since most of these events are one time, two-time kind of thing and heavily relies as well on sponsors and the like. I'd like to think that sports themselves are highly impenetrable to match-fixing BUT it still does happen sadly. Still I think it happens more often in lower tier tournaments rather than big ones, which speaks volumes to its reputation imo.

Though I guess if you were to compare it with REALLY big events, then yeah then it wouldn't be susceptible. I reckon they'd both be at the same level-ish then no?

You have raised an important question, which I would formulate something like this: "From what level of sports competitions can we be sure that betting will not run the risk of manipulating the results of these competitions?" I'm not sure that even at the level of, for example, Serie A, all matches are guaranteed to be fair. Maybe the World Cup level is closed from manipulation.. As for other sports, I doubt very much that even some fights for world boxing titles are not subject to behind-the-scenes arrangements.

However, I am almost sure that Formula 1 is free from such manipulations. The teams' financial and technological interests clash too much there. And the same big ambitions of the racers are opposed to each other. As for the reasons for this, I have another hypothesis, which is that racing is an inherently rich people's sport, whereas boxing or football allows anyone, including a poor person, to make a career if they have the ability and determination.

But you can't say that the less influence of "luck or bad luck" may indicate potential rigging if I understood correctly what you want to say. Maybe we can say that it is easier to set up less popular duels compared to popular ones on which many eyes are focused. As some other members have already said, that's why we choose to bet on the most popular sports and leagues.

Your idea is kind of generalized and a little unclear to me... but if you found some way to increase your chances of winning or dodging bullets in sports betting, then that's great.

Sports betting are physically active games, it is easier to manipulate from this end to the other without getting noticed. Options on betting platforms are getting more crazier with betting if random fan interrupting a game or a certain player getting red card in a match and then doing it himself just to establish the win on his bet. There has been many calls about players changing the outcomes on purpose just so they can make million profit from their bet, while others are caught i am sure there are those who are best at it and yet undiscovered.

Election bets can also be tampered, whereas in casino an insider might have the ability to track signals and deploy when is convenient to stake, but the average number of times outcomes are tampered are those from sports betting.

Gambling itself can be manipulated beit sports game or casino games, if we talks about sports bet being manipulated yes it can be physically manipulated either from the player or coach whomever that is deemed easily controlled by money but most times players are the people who are more likely to become manipulated due to the handsome offers that could be presented to them.

Now if we talking about casinos, this games can be also easily manipulated by the programer or from the casino end side where they would make winning chances very poor and make the losing possibilities extremely high to favor them. To me I sense that casinos are more manipulated compared to sports betting since they are being watched live on how they plays and runs it than casinos which you would never detect the overall system configuration and even though they said it's provably fair I wouldn't take that as an assurance or a total reliability to say that casino game is entirely fair enough to win easily.

I agree. I have lost count of the number of interference and manipulations in sports betting - in football, basketball and some of the others. I can't even make any comparison with this in betting on casino games. Unless those who are now trying to use bots to manipulate the outcome of their games, which is still difficult and close to impossible, you can hardly find any issues like that compared to sportsbetting. In casino games, winning or losing is random unless the casino just had badly programmed games that are not provably fair.

I totally agree with this, the amount of small scale sports matches I've seen that is clearly being manipulated by either the referees, the players, coaches, organizers, etc.. is just too many. it is also understandable that it is a lot easier to manipulate as there is less security and regulations on them compared to the big leagues.

I agree. This is why I don't bet on small leagues (if available) because I don't have any source that will tell me what the outcome of the game will be. They are prone to manipulation and I bet there's one who is making profits out of those.
Professional sports on the other hand is unlikely to be manipulated and if it is, it sure is too obvious and many people will see it which is why they are trying to avoid it as much as possible. As you said, we cannot influence it, nor other people. It's not like a group of players who are paid in high amounts will just listen to anyone especially if they are stars who are always looking for a win.

Games that has its outcomes purely based on luck are immune to human manipulation or physical human manipulation if that's the right word to use, we can draw our example for slot games, it is impossible for humans to physically manipulate the outcome of a slot game being played, and this is because the game is purely system based, the game and it's mechanics have been programmed to work on a certain, and computers are non to be very consistent to instructions it's given.

And outside of luck based games, like sports betting and others, this games are more prone to human manipulation, it is easy to bribe a team to allow their opponent win, this is possible not just in football but across all major sports, and the more unpopular a sports league is, the more high risk it is to such manipulation.

So, in conclusion, I would say that you are right, I agree wit you.

obviously betting on events is the most vulnerable to manipulation since it is the only one that is led by people

maybe not the betting platform exactly but matches, sports teams, and athletes are all susceptible to manipulation and fraud and that can affect someone's bet as opposed to gambling whereas it is mostly machines that a gambler is working with it is a lot harder to manipulate and fool something that works under logic and codes

Despite that, we have so many laws that are yet to be made that will make sports games fairer and less manipulated, is still a clear fact that sports is one of the most corrupt and manipulated games among others, this is because sports games have vulnerable chances of interference not just from one actor but multiple interferences which makes the games far from being perfect, that is the reason some of the games within sport games like football and others have organizers that set rules to at least checkmates the excesses of each actor in the game.

manipulation of sports event is easier than any sort of event like a general election of the order of the presidential election that involve just two kind of potential outcome which is just a win or a loss. because of how straight forward the kind of expected outcome is and the fact that the kind of outcome that ends up playing out will have effect on citizens for a number of years, you cant really predict it or even assume that it can be manipulated just because it has any association with a particular gambling decision.

in sports, players, referee, the team or management and even the VAR can be manipulated and it will have effect on the outcome of the game and when only one of the different potential sources that combines to determine the outcome of the game is being manipulated, it will generally be difficult to ascertain which is the cause except in obvious cases and this is the reason why sports betting will always be susceptible to some sort of manipulation and that is why the issue of max fixing is still a subject of discussion.. attempting to influence the result in both random games and even events that can be easily predetermined will only take out the joy and fun that is associated with doing your prediction without the fear that the outcome has already be predetermined. it will discourage people from gambling on such event like the WWE and definitely is the reason why we talk about voters apathy being on the increase.

It is not paradox, it is logically true. You can`t influence the result in random games, so you have no reason even to try it. The same time, if the result can be predicted(without guarantee of course, just increase chances of winning) - you can manipulate it. If you don`t know the possible result, you don`t know what side you ought to move.

There are so many conspiracy theories online claiming that sports betting is manipulated, and it’s not just limited to lesser-known games as even popular ones are questioned. There was a famous case involving Tim Donaghy, an NBA referee who went to prison for manipulating games, not sure if you’re familiar with him, but his story is one of the most talked-about examples of alleged game fixing.

If you’re curious about how he did it, you can check out the video

Inside The Gambling Ring of NBA Referee Tim Donaghy

In that interview, IIRC Donaghy claimed he acted alone and that no one ordered him to manipulate games. But personally, I find that hard to believe. It seems like the organization might have been aware, or possibly even involved using some kind of "script." Why else would Donaghy make a public testimony after serving his sentence? Was it to clear the organization’s name and reassure fans? Makes you wonder.

If we talk about the possibility of external influence on events in order to manipulate the result (meaning, for example, interference in the gambling process, interference in a sports competition, for example, through match-fixing), which is more vulnerable in this regard: gambling or betting on events (not only on sports)?

Gradually, I came to the conclusion that sports betting is more vulnerable to manipulation of the results of events and the subsequent use of insider information. Betting on events in general strongly depends on the scale of an event. The larger the event, the more difficult it is to influence its outcome to your advantage (a recent example of such a large-scale bet is a bet on the outcome of the US presidential election).

In turn, gambling is the least susceptible to manipulation of the results, since the more random the process, the less manageable it is. In other words, the high proportion of random outcomes in gambling protects them from manipulation of the results to a greater extent than the high predictability of sports betting protects them from contractual outcomes of competitions. This leads to the paradoxical conclusion that the less influence luck or bad luck has on the outcome of an event, the more likely it is that you will simply be deceived. Do you agree or disagree with such ideas regarding gambling and betting?