Author

Topic: Coronavirus & quarantine & effect on BTC Difficulty. How Bad/Likely? Poll! (Read 675 times)

legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
the catch is if the infection rate is 3x that of the flu...and 10x more serious than the flu...and the experts say 40% to 60% will catch this worldwide.

i assume you're referring to that harvard epidemiologist? he apparently revised that down and doesn't seem too sure of himself:

Quote
Lipsitch has since revised that estimate downward and with a greater range: He now estimates it’s “plausible” that 20 to 60 percent of adults will catch the disease.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine

i've seen much lower estimates too. it's obviously hard to speak about any of this stuff with certainty.

as for BTC difficulty, no obvious effects yet. the last few adjustments:

Quote
+ 4.67 %
+ 0.52 %
- 0.38 %    
Next Difficulty Estimated + 5.65%

https://btc.com/stats/diff
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
I reckon they should use bitcoin to fix this hehehe. They will hit 2 birds with 1 stone. They can report more than healthy electricity consumption and activity, however, they can also produce bitcoins as grounds for the fraudulent behavior hehehehe.

Local companies and officials are fraudulently boosting electricity consumption and other metrics in order to meet tough new back-to-work targets as the spread of the new coronavirus in China wanes, a Caixin investigation has found.

Leaving lights and air conditioners on all day in empty offices, turning on equipment, faking staff rosters and even coaching factory workers to deceive inspectors are just some of the ways companies fabricate rosy statistics for local governments to report up the chain.


Read in full https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Lights-go-on-but-no-one-goes-to-work

the catch is if the infection rate is 3x that of the flu...and 10x more serious than the flu...and the experts say 40% to 60% will catch this worldwide.



Well, that will be IMHO, much higher in cities, even cities of say 5K or above in the USA as an example.

Add to all the 'fun facts' above, that it will take up to 1 to 1.5 years for a vaccine...a person has to wonder whether those who get it at the 'beginning' of this Pandemic

won't have better medical care and such, before every 4th person out of 10 people you see on the street is contagious.



Even if (as I hope) this virus is milder, as they also say 80% recover. Who wants to get something that is a cross between a hard flu sickness and lung congestion/Pneumonia!

This would suck and put you down for 2 weeks to a month, even if 'indeed' 80% recover, no matter how 'crummy' this scenario is.

So with my above facts, what do people really think if 40% of folk who work in this country..simply can't for 2 weeks to a month, due to being ill with these

flu/pneumonia symptoms...will do to the economy. This could be economically and health-wise almost as bad as the sickness itself for most people, in their lost

wages and medical expenses in the USA. Again, if above had 'some' truth to this and it really does take up to 1 to 1.5 years for a vaccinee.

Hate to say the sky is falling, but get your sh*t together, the current Trump Administration, IMHO, certainly does not seem to be on the ball! Sad

Brad
legendary
Activity: 3178
Merit: 1509
I reckon they should use bitcoin to fix this hehehe. They will hit 2 birds with 1 stone. They can report more than healthy electricity consumption and activity, however, they can also produce bitcoins as grounds for the fraudulent behavior hehehehe.



Local companies and officials are fraudulently boosting electricity consumption and other metrics in order to meet tough new back-to-work targets as the spread of the new coronavirus in China wanes, a Caixin investigation has found.

Leaving lights and air conditioners on all day in empty offices, turning on equipment, faking staff rosters and even coaching factory workers to deceive inspectors are just some of the ways companies fabricate rosy statistics for local governments to report up the chain.


Read in full https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Lights-go-on-but-no-one-goes-to-work
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
people who can afford to stay home will..those who can't, not work, will work and get sick...sucks...and more people in the USA will declare bankruptcy because of this and health bills as well

to add on to this...because some of the effects of this coronavirus can have lasting effects especially on those with pre-existing conditions...oh and the Trump Administration is saying that

medicare and such and private insurance may not cover the virus and/or the complications.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-says-it-might-not-cover-all-coronavirus-healthcare-2020-3

cost extra to get tested

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/486146-coronavirus-testing-could-cost-some-patients-extra

sh*t what a cluster

copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Thank you for this very useful link. I suggest all of you to see this, and stop worrying too much because more people are recovering than dying from cofid 19. Hyperbole media reporting often causes panic, may worry but must be based on knowledge. Don't forget to monitor information from the official health account in your country, follow the instructions, keep it clean, wash your hands before touching areas on the face and glands, etc.

I don't think this has a direct impact on the movement of cryptocurrency. Although the trend tends to go down, there is no significant movement, do not then relate it to this outbreak, there could be other factors. Stop speculating which tends to cause anxiety.

So according to this link, there are 7.8 billion people on the Earth, more or less, for math use. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

I heard PBS Radio Today...that this virus could have up. to 1.5% infection rate. Even if this epidemic is milder as we hope. The 1918 pandemic

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article with a death rate of greater than 2.5% BUT over 40% of the world's population was infected.

An expert on PBS radio today, who wrote a book on the 1918 pandemic, https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/03/03/john-barry-on-pandemics says that

he had 'friends that model such stuff' and project a 40% to 60% infection rate worldwide. Thus with 7.8 billion people on the Earth x say 40% infection rate and

a 1.5% infection rate would be worldwide deaths at that 40% infection rate of 3,120,000 deaths worldwide if my Math is correct.

It would be much, much worse after supplies run out and also in developing countries so you could double that. Also, supposedly a much higher risk if over 50 years old.

To be blunt, there would be more deaths from the 'shutdown' of trade and essential services that the pandemic, IMHO. Commerce even for say, worse case, for 3 weeks

would just stop in an attempt for this pandemic to burn itself out.

Anyway, I'm retired, I may just sometime in the future have the lifestyle of a live a home hermit, if it gets that bad, for others who can't afford to NOT, go to work, over the

age of 50 ..main breadwinners..it could be devastating indeed and yet another risk in your life.

As to how this all applies to BTC? Well, it could be BTC will not act as a store of value under a pandemic. You can 'liquidate' BTC instantly with your phone to refill

your emergency fund in say, Venezuela. There will be countries that will close banks and other dubious actions to keep control. So BTC may indeed be the 'great'

emergency fund but NOT a store of value and drop the same as every other speculative asset out there like stocks...just because only thing out there to buy stuff in

especially dubious 3rd world countries when things may become all 'unglued' Sad

Anyway, we will just have to wait and see how this plays out I guess.

Brad
full member
Activity: 896
Merit: 108
I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Thank you for this very useful link. I suggest all of you to see this, and stop worrying too much because more people are recovering than dying from cofid 19. Hyperbole media reporting often causes panic, may worry but must be based on knowledge. Don't forget to monitor information from the official health account in your country, follow the instructions, keep it clean, wash your hands before touching areas on the face and glands, etc.

I don't think this has a direct impact on the movement of cryptocurrency. Although the trend tends to go down, there is no significant movement, do not then relate it to this outbreak, there could be other factors. Stop speculating which tends to cause anxiety.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 507
I'm not an expert,but AFAIK,even if all the miners located in China stop working,this will decrease mining difficulty and the rest of the miners around the world will successfully handle all the BTC transactions.The blockchain is decentralized,if sertain parts of the system have to shutdown,the rest of the system will carry on.
That's why we aren't dependent of the Chinese miners.
The halving is in 2 months now, so we should see a rise in the hashrate and the difficulty. But except today we haven't see that. The difficulty and the hashrate haven't increased at all in february, they have been totally flat.  Undecided It means there is a real impact from the coronavirus, and the close of mining facilities in China.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
https://www.blockchain.com/fr/charts/difficulty?timespan=60days
Of course, the influence from the coronavirus will be visible on various indicators, but I think it's too early to talk about some huge risks associated with its spread. It will be necessary to sound the alarm if a drop in network hashrate begins.
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
I'm not an expert,but AFAIK,even if all the miners located in China stop working,this will decrease mining difficulty and the rest of the miners around the world will successfully handle all the BTC transactions.The blockchain is decentralized,if sertain parts of the system have to shutdown,the rest of the system will carry on.
That's why we aren't dependent of the Chinese miners.
The halving is in 2 months now, so we should see a rise in the hashrate and the difficulty. But except today we haven't see that. The difficulty and the hashrate haven't increased at all in february, they have been totally flat.  Undecided It means there is a real impact from the coronavirus, and the close of mining facilities in China.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
https://www.blockchain.com/fr/charts/difficulty?timespan=60days

that is my fear...is BTC/crypto simply a 'speculative asset. like stocks that are good in good times but really bad in bad times? In other words, the $$$ that goes into BTC/crypto as a

a speculative asset is not determined by the whole 'store of value' argument..but more like cash, in bad times the first thing to get spent to fill up the old emergency fund before you liquidate

you other more cumbersome assets like stocks and gold etc? That would be bad, very, very bad for me and my HODL BTC/crypto position indeed.

I really was not a big fan of today (Monday 3/2/20) and stocks go up big and BTC/crypto follows...we will see i guess.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 2353
I'm not an expert,but AFAIK,even if all the miners located in China stop working,this will decrease mining difficulty and the rest of the miners around the world will successfully handle all the BTC transactions.The blockchain is decentralized,if sertain parts of the system have to shutdown,the rest of the system will carry on.
That's why we aren't dependent of the Chinese miners.
The halving is in 2 months now, so we should see a rise in the hashrate and the difficulty. But except today we haven't see that. The difficulty and the hashrate haven't increased at all in february, they have been totally flat.  Undecided It means there is a real impact from the coronavirus, and the close of mining facilities in China.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
https://www.blockchain.com/fr/charts/difficulty?timespan=60days
member
Activity: 1302
Merit: 25
Nothing will change, it's too big of a country to really be THAT affected by flu. Even if a couple of facilities are shut down, there're tons of miners all over the world to take on the load

You can't say that and just feel indifferent about the corona virus. This has become a global health challenge just as WHO has declared it. Therefore, it is not only affecting China but many other countries have been recorded to have cases of corona virus even in some African country(ies) too. So, talking about miners, it is likely going to affect the system of mining since transmission isn't selected.
full member
Activity: 1554
Merit: 101
unfortunately it does not really affect the crypto, when the virus was announced I think there is no significant effect on it, stable market conditions and there is no drastic increase / decrease after the news circulates, where if there is news that really gives effect to the crypto market will make ups and downs that are not reasonable.
that does not mean I expect this outbreak to make a market increase because of the paralysis of some Chinese industries due to this disease.
but it doesn't seem to have an effect, and we expect this outbreak to end soon.
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
The below are my thoughts on WHY is it that BTC is not acting like a store of value

store of value by definition is something "that retains purchasing power into the future". it has nothing to do with how easy or hard it is to move it. in fact fiat is considered a "store of value".
from wikipedia:
Quote
The most common store of value in modern times has been money, currency, or a commodity like a precious metal or financial capital.

and it is more of a long term thing rather than short term and daily fluctuations. with that definition bitcoin doesn't exactly fit in as store of value because its value "shoots" up in long term rather than retaining the same purchasing power and having small rises! but also it could be considered a store of value because it doesn't lose value.
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
This is also true of any crisis..imagine you are trying to prepare your likely 'emergency fund' which also likely is empty....in say Venezuela

Any of that current currency, if you have such, is probably getting even more worthless due to last week's dump of stocks/BTC/etc. So you can

dig out your hidden emergency gold and/or stocks or take out a loan (all doubtful) or you can liquidate that Bitcoin you've been accumulating

that you were and are buying food, in say Paraguay or some such, because they never will again take Venezuelan currency.

But with this handy/dandy BTC/crypto with the ability to get USD out of such back from BTC and into say USD into your phone, you now can stock up for coronavirus.

This is happening with everyone around the world due to the instant and easy liquidation of BTC/Crypto for such pandemics we may be in the process of having.

So, BTC as plan-B for emergencies this should NOT be a surprise. Was to me, just saying, it should not have been. This easy liquidation is a feature of BTC, the same

as accumulation is.

So we will see how this pans out if/when the stock market continues to fall and other things happen....currencies get manipulated around the world and IMHO

BTC  price will swing back to upward and accumulation will resume and such BTC for the same ease of use above and BTC's decentralized nature.

But this time as a store of value, for these further games by governments and the next round or two of emergencies with this crisis. Again, IMHO. This liquidation

as a phase of BTC/crypto sales and price, dumping is just the 1st act of this whole coronavirus, again IMHO. Boom or Doom, we will be the first to know!

later

Brad
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
The below are my thoughts on WHY is it that BTC is not acting like a store of value ...like we figured...

in hindsight...being easy to move and everyone needing to fill up their likely or never had emergency funds

it is the 'quickest' method for quick cash worldwide on a 'cashout'

my other ramblings below on this view (guess/idea/lunacy?)

Interesting..you have a crisis...a potential 'pandemic'

thus BTC is used as a store of value in countries where such things would be much worse..you can't trust your government

or your banks are corrupt or whatever, like say Venezuela.

So now you have your crisis, the one that states 'bitcoin will be a store of value' but what you find is..don't want to take $$$ out

of the bank (or hard or like Venezuela you have no cash in banks)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So of all the assets, you have set aside like, gold/silver and US currency and Bitcoin

which is the 'easiest to move' in a country like Venezuela for quick emergency cash?

You could make the same argument for the USA..do I really want to call my broker to move $$$ out? Or wait for long-term on such?

Say you are cash poor and 'iffy' on your finances if this goes on for a bit, as a result of a potential layoff or whatever or coronavirus fears...due to slowdown and stoppage of parts in China?

But damn, I can dump BTC to 'refund' my (ashamed because empty) "emergency/catastrophe fund' in case any/all of above come to pass.

Take this logic worldwide on the status of the current economic issues of all these worldwide and peoples likely reaction to such and it seems to humble a BTC/Crypto HODL'er indeed!

So we have the 'twin' fun times of when the stock market crashes on fears of something like this ...discretionary $$$ move out of BTC/Crypto and we dump too.

But like today, when the stock market pumps, BTC/Crypto also dumps as much or more.

Great thing BTC as a store of value for trying times...until the trying times come...damn this is harsh...

HODL I guess, but I'm also as 'cash strapped' as all the idiots above if this continues, so sh*t, this cluster could go on awhile if my 'dubious' above views are kinda correct. Sad

The only hope is this resolves itself and stabilizes and Bitcoin recoups as a store of value and being just temporary shakeup/crash in BTC/Crypto. Indeed I hope so!

---------------------------------------------------------

So sh*t on a stick, I hope this is the end of such and at least BTC/Crypto acts like Gold say and goes, again, at least, 'sideways' in price vs further 'likely' dumps

in the stock market, etc

Chump or Champ or Pump or Dump or Boom or Doom

we will be the first to know!

Brad
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1068
WOLF.BET - Provably Fair Crypto Casino
As usual people are spreading panic with no reason. Corona virus is nothing more but just another version of flu. Also, it doesn't affect the price of Bitcoin in any way although some are trying to use that histeria about virus as a reason for Bitcoin price fall. So.don't believe everything you read in media and be rational.and current Bitcoin price is a result of corrections that happen all the time in the volatility cycle.
member
Activity: 294
Merit: 13
★777Coin.com★ Fun BTC Casino!
I also vote for no effect at all .
I don't see a reason for the miners to stop even for this corona virus outbreak.
I think this is also the perfect time for them to mine since they are already locked down so it is their way to earn money.
legendary
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1966
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
I think a lot of people are making way too much of this whole Coronavirus thing. There are even people buying less Corona Beer now and the company are saying that they are losing millions in sales, because people stopped buying that brand of beer.  Roll Eyes

The ASIC manufacturing plants are almost fully automated, so they hardly have any employees working in these factories and those workers are wearing protective clothing for dust in any way. They will increase the price, because the virus is a good excuse for them to pump the price.  Roll Eyes

Silicon valley must get their act together and start competing with the Chinese manufacturers of ASIC technology.  Angry
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
Just as an aside.

BTC was at a high this month on 2/13/20 of $10,425.85 USD.

15 days BTC was at the current price (just looked) of $8,740.45 USD.

This is a 16.16% dump in price in those 15 days for Bitcoin, as best as I can determine.

The Dow Jones was on 2/13/20 a price of $29,290.85 USD.

Again, 15 days Down Jones was today at $25,409.36 USD.

This is a 13.25% dump in price in those 13 days for Dow Jones, as best as I can determine.

Gold was $1,575.74 on 2/13/20. Gold was $1,585.78 on 2/28/20.

So far stocks and BTC are pretty much neck and neck and gold was pretty much flat in price.

We will see, I find it interesting we are in this groove with stock losses.

Anyway, for your consideration of the possible correlation of the Coronavirus situation.

Brad
legendary
Activity: 2030
Merit: 1573
CLEAN non GPL infringing code made in Rust lang
Ok so every once in a while this virus kills a young person. Doesn't this happen with normal flu as well? How many people around the world get pneumonia and die?
Coronavirus is bad, but it shouldn't be a factor to cause mass hysteria. There are billions of Chinese, only thousands of them contracted Corona Virus, out of those thosands only a few hundred died.

According to that site that I posted earlier in Australia there were 15 cases, 5 already recovered and nobody died. You really can fight this thing and it is life threatening but so is smallpox, rabies and soon.  

You picked a bad one here. Smallpox. That thing was "destroyed", and written off from the world. Decades ago many countries stopped applying the vaccine for this and without the vaccine it is quite deadly, but since its not supposed to exist, it shouldn't be a problem...

Unless someone lied and kept a live specimen as bio weapon, but since the vaccine remains it shouldn't be a problem in theory (except for the first infected), should an outbreak somehow occurred again.

Of course there are far worse out there that could be used as bio weapon, some without any cure or vaccine.

Mass hysteria does nothing good even in the worst scenario, and the procedure remains pretty much the same anyway: Quarantine, isolate, treat the infected best you can, wait until it dies out. My only fear is if that virus escapes into poor "3rd world" countries, it will spread like wildfire.
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
My friend flew from China two days ago and it looks like reality and the information that the media shows are different. There are empty streets and no people anywhere. Flights are canceled. It sounds like a disaster.. but everything will work out I'm hope.
hero member
Activity: 1890
Merit: 831
Only 5 major cities are being locked down , the doctors are already investing the vaccines and it does take time for it to be in the market even after the invention , right now I do think it could take anywhere between 6 months to 1 year , and governments are already battling to stop this infestation .
I do believe that it is not affecting the normal life in any way since you know even after the lockdown people do have things available and it's not affecting the whole China just a part ..
Yes most miners are in China and people do import the mining software from there but you know you can see the price..
It's already going up and the Corona virus is still spreading.
Thus I don't see any direct links ..
legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823

MEDIA quote btctop having to shut down...

.. hashrate statistics still show btctop doing 4exahash for last 3 days....
assessment: media less believable than blockchain hashrate stats
summary: btctop still operating

..
by the way.
if china was on a lockdown and quarantine. latest images would not see people walking around but would show a 'ghost town' imagery. .. i see people in latest pics.
assessment: people still free to move around
assessment: western media need to do more research

.. and big big deal information..
LEARN THE DATES OF CHINESE NEW YEAR
people are on vacation in some places.

also..
if you want to have an explanation of all the facemask pics..
i can pick any year in the last decade and find china facemask pics.
just google image:    china smog
yep chinese wear facemasks all the time anyway

..
as for the whole network hashrate
december. lowest hashrate in the 80's exa
january. lowest hashrate in the 90's exa
february. lowest hashrate in the 100's exa

.. all i see is growth.. not shutdowns.


Plus if indeed btctop, or another large mining pool/farm shut down, difficulty will fall, profitability will go up, other miners will take over.

It incentivizes decentralization in my opinion.
jr. member
Activity: 37
Merit: 2
Nothing will change, it's too big of a country to really be THAT affected by flu. Even if a couple of facilities are shut down, there're tons of miners all over the world to take on the load
legendary
Activity: 3472
Merit: 10611
Well, this big miner got caught in the wheels and according to the article has to shut down operations. The only big one I've heard about
in this bind, so far that I know of.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-crypto-mine-stop-or-stall-operations-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak

there has been lots of nonstop efforts in the media to spread FUD about bitcoin and cause panic to push the price down. that is why you keep seeing these articles that make no sense at all since there is zero facts in any of them.
hashrate is pretty stable and hasn't had any major changes in it. not to mention that the Chinese miners are still reporting the same hashrate as before!
hero member
Activity: 3234
Merit: 941
I'm not an expert,but AFAIK,even if all the miners located in China stop working,this will decrease mining difficulty and the rest of the miners around the world will successfully handle all the BTC transactions.The blockchain is decentralized,if sertain parts of the system have to shutdown,the rest of the system will carry on.
That's why we aren't dependent of the Chinese miners.
legendary
Activity: 3808
Merit: 1219


Well, this big miner got caught in the wheels and according to the article has to shut down operations. The only big one I've heard about

in this bind, so far that I know of.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-crypto-mine-stop-or-stall-operations-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak

I would never trust Coin Telegraph, because they have a long history of publishing fake news. This particular news item didn't appeared in any other Bitcoin related media. So I assume that it is unconfirmed. Most of the Bitcoin mining farms in China are located in remote provinces such as New Mongolia Autonomous Region, which have remained largely free of the virus till now. Also, the lockdown is affecting the major urban areas and not the rural districts where the vast majority of the mega farms are located.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794

MEDIA quote btctop having to shut down...

.. hashrate statistics still show btctop doing 4exahash for last 3 days....
assessment: media less believable than blockchain hashrate stats
summary: btctop still operating

..
by the way.
if china was on a lockdown and quarantine. latest images would not see people walking around but would show a 'ghost town' imagery. .. i see people in latest pics.
assessment: people still free to move around
assessment: western media need to do more research

.. and big big deal information..
LEARN THE DATES OF CHINESE NEW YEAR
people are on vacation in some places.

also..
if you want to have an explanation of all the facemask pics..
i can pick any year in the last decade and find china facemask pics.
just google image:    china smog
yep chinese wear facemasks all the time anyway

..
as for the whole network hashrate
december. lowest hashrate in the 80's exa
january. lowest hashrate in the 90's exa
february. lowest hashrate in the 100's exa

.. all i see is growth.. not shutdowns.
sr. member
Activity: 1400
Merit: 269
I think the mining industry in china will not be affected because most of their mining facilities are automated and only few people work their that's is isolated from city's. The virus only works if you get in contact with people and doesn't have safety mask and weak immune system.

The same goes for the ASIC manufacturers most of it are all machine there with little needed of manpower.
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!


Well, this big miner got caught in the wheels and according to the article has to shut down operations. The only big one I've heard about

in this bind, so far that I know of.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-crypto-mine-stop-or-stall-operations-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak



legendary
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1352
Aren't mining farms on China manned by a few people on remote areas? Usually mountainsides? If that's the case then the threat of infection would be low. The virus per se cannot survive without a host in ~12 hrs, is not airborne and can only be passed through human-human transmission. Given the conditions of the mining farms being isolated and far from civilization for the most part, there's a slim chance that workers would contract the disease, and I'm pretty sure they are now avoiding the hotspots of infection, particularly areas surrounding Wuhan. So general opinion here: mining and business as usual.

As for the virus itself, countries are finding a cure now and it's just a matter of time before everyone is cured and the virus itself is quarantined.

I don't think this person was weak or old, 34 year old DOCTOR from the very Wuhan hospital, who ended becoming a patient Jan 30 and now is dead.

The human body is a fascinating vessel. We might not know whether the person suffered from fatigue (which helps accelerate the effects of the virus) and/or other unknown complications--or may have been left unchecked. It is not lethal, but highly contagious for sure. Majority of the people who died from the virus have pre-existing medical conditions, are children with underdeveloped immune system and the elderlies with a weaker immune system. For healthy human beings, they have a chance to get out of the said sickness.

There really is a threat, it appears to have been contained so far, but its no common flu like you say, its serious. It does propagate like the flu, which means worryingly easy.

There was, prior to the recreation of the virus in lab conditions. It has an R0>2.5 which is way higher than SARS and MERS-CoV, though its symptoms and effects to the body isn't lethal and isn't developing faster into deadlier complications.

Perhaps this is nature's way of telling people to not eat everything that moves.
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 2162
Mining farms don't have that many employees, so they wouldn't be affected by some restrictions that might be installed by the Chinese government. Also, I remember watching a documentary about miners and it showed how the works basically live on the site - I don't know if its the case for many/all farms, but still it's a possibility, and with the bullish market the owners can offer a good pay to make their workers stay inside for days and weeks.
hero member
Activity: 2184
Merit: 531
I don't think this person was weak or old, 34 year old DOCTOR from the very Wuhan hospital, who ended becoming a patient Jan 30 and now is dead.

There really is a threat, it appears to have been contained so far, but its no common flu like you say, its serious. It does propagate like the flu, which means worryingly easy.

That said i don't think this will affect Bitcoin much, if at all. Mining operators in China, live in the farm itself, they don't really need to be going out much. I suppose it might disrupt asic production, but that's another matter. If anything, it will slowdown somewhat the diff increase as they won't be expanding or upgrading miners for a month or so until people can go back to normal and the quarantine is lifted up.

Ok so every once in a while this virus kills a young person. Doesn't this happen with normal flu as well? How many people around the world get pneumonia and die?
Coronavirus is bad, but it shouldn't be a factor to cause mass hysteria. There are billions of Chinese, only thousands of them contracted Corona Virus, out of those thosands only a few hundred died.

According to that site that I posted earlier in Australia there were 15 cases, 5 already recovered and nobody died. You really can fight this thing and it is life threatening but so is smallpox, rabies and soon. 
copper member
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Yep, wondering this myself. Why the huge crackdown? Perhaps it is because afraid the virus will mutate? Just because China can crack down massively to kill it sooner?

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-06-if-coronavirus-no-big-deal-why-china-cracking-down.html

But as relates to Bitmain and Innsilicon and Data Halls in China, kicking out units to themselves and/or eventually consumers in/out of China.

This is starting to look like it will drag out well into April. IMHO.

Brad
legendary
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1,000,000,000 population
0,000,000,X00 deaths
not 10%.. no 1% not 0.1% not 0.01%

sorry but with the 0.00005% (of which most are kids and pensioners.
i dont see a problem

the january lull is not unusual.
it happens every year its called the chinese new year.

miners run on electric. not human muscle. electronics do not catch the corona virus so there is no quarantine for average people

as for humans. at airports there is just a person with a thermometer at check in
westerners in china are still getting on planes and coming home to the west.

will people stop trying to cause stupid speculation to affect the market price
if you want to make money.. buy paper facemasks for pennies and sell them to dumb people for 10x
hero member
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Actually, I don't have any idea about the Coronavirus & quarantine & effect on BTC Difficulty because that is a different thing. The bitcoin difficulty depends on the miners who mine bitcoin using their hardware, and it's not connected to the virus itself. If the people who mining bitcoin are infected with the virus, their device still running by itself and it still mining bitcoin. The process of the mining will still run unless people in China shut down all of their equipment so that it can impact the bitcoin difficulty.

But if finally, the Coronavirus give an impact to the economy of China, and people in China cannot use their fiat, then maybe there is an impact on the bitcoin price. But I guess that will not give an effect in a short time because the Chinese government will find out the other way before they decide to use bitcoin.
legendary
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A lot has been made of the Coronavirus, but the reality is that it is highly contagious, but not that lethal compared to other viruses. I think some article mentioned that it only has a 2% death rate of the 1000s of people that was infected. Yes, it is still very scary and even with a 2% death rate, people will still worry about this.

The other thing is that most businesses in China are still functioning as normal, but people are using protective measures to protect themselves against the virus.

The most affected areas are under quarantine and if most of the ASIC chips were manufactured there, it would have a bigger impact on the hash rate in the future.   Wink
legendary
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i still don't see any kind of relationship whatsoever. Cronavirus is not the Plague! even if it were a lot more serious that it currently is, bitcoin hashrare nor its price would have been affected by it. besides miners aren't at the heart of populated cities, they are usually outside of city, even in heights like in the mountains,... (so secluded) and they don't really need that much constant maintenance from workers. on top of that majority of hashrate is not even in China and it has been growing elsewhere so whatever happens in China can't really affect hashrate growth in other countries.
sr. member
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I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There were only a little over 500 deaths worldwide out of which almost all were in China. There will not be an lack of workforce as the Virus kills weak and old people, usually recovering from another form of illness, just like other types of flu used to do.


If you have some immunity problems, like you have AIDS and you get a normal flu you have hgh probability of dying but nobody will make a big deal out of it if it really happens. Now if this is a new mutated flu everything changes. Now you're part of a completely new statistical group.

I don't think this person was weak or old, 34 year old DOCTOR from the very Wuhan hospital, who ended becoming a patient Jan 30 and now is dead.

There really is a threat, it appears to have been contained so far, but its no common flu like you say, its serious. It does propagate like the flu, which means worryingly easy.

That said i don't think this will affect Bitcoin much, if at all. Mining operators in China, live in the farm itself, they don't really need to be going out much. I suppose it might disrupt asic production, but that's another matter. If anything, it will slowdown somewhat the diff increase as they won't be expanding or upgrading miners for a month or so until people can go back to normal and the quarantine is lifted up.

It is very difficult to be productive in work when there is a hindrance like a virus outbreak. It is not safe to go out in China because of fast spreading of the virus that can lead to hundreds of deaths. In some aspects it really take part on country's economy affected by this. It is very hard for the bitcoin to move although it is digital, some people tend to be sick because a lot of population in China can't work outside. People should make their immune system stronger and healthier so that they can somehow resist the virus by their own body. If they get sick, they can easily overcome it and be cured. Hoping that corona virus doesn't become worst in a certain period of time and I hope that they find a cure for it.
legendary
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You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Thank you for that link--I was wondering if there was a website that kept track of deaths due to this outbreak, and apparently there is.  It's showing 638 deaths right now, which is really small in the grand scheme of things.  I'm not exactly sure how many people die of the flu each year, but I'd imagine it's comparable.  And if you compare deaths from coronavirus to deaths from auto accidents or overdoses, then it pales by comparison.

And I don't think any viral outbreak is going to produce so much as a blip on the radar of bitcoin's price, its miners, or anything else associated with it unless it was so severe that it was killing millions of people in China, and even then I'd bet the miners would lock themselves in their mining warehouses with a year's supply of hand sanitizer and plenty of barrier masks.  In other words, it's not going to be much of a problem.

It also looks like more than twice as many people have recovered from coronavirus than have died (though that does suggest it is pretty deadly).
legendary
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I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There were only a little over 500 deaths worldwide out of which almost all were in China. There will not be an lack of workforce as the Virus kills weak and old people, usually recovering from another form of illness, just like other types of flu used to do.


If you have some immunity problems, like you have AIDS and you get a normal flu you have hgh probability of dying but nobody will make a big deal out of it if it really happens. Now if this is a new mutated flu everything changes. Now you're part of a completely new statistical group.

I don't think this person was weak or old, 34 year old DOCTOR from the very Wuhan hospital, who ended becoming a patient Jan 30 and now is dead.

There really is a threat, it appears to have been contained so far, but its no common flu like you say, its serious. It does propagate like the flu, which means worryingly easy.

That said i don't think this will affect Bitcoin much, if at all. Mining operators in China, live in the farm itself, they don't really need to be going out much. I suppose it might disrupt asic production, but that's another matter. If anything, it will slowdown somewhat the diff increase as they won't be expanding or upgrading miners for a month or so until people can go back to normal and the quarantine is lifted up.
sr. member
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As what you mentioned work force will be halt and reduced and most workload will be taken only by huge group of miners that will likely result into increase of difficulty. Imagine how many miners came from China and if we cut their time for this due to the virus then of course what will happened next? Price of bitcoin is increasing on a very shady way which should be affected by this reduction of miners.


There were only a little over 500 deaths worldwide out of which almost all were in China. There will not be an lack of workforce as the Virus kills weak and old people, usually recovering from another form of illness, just like other types of flu used to do.


Little deaths but how about those under quarantine? I assume they arent quaranteed on their own home or own storage for the mining activity which they are doing. Or if Chinese did then how long do you think this will end if they just tolerating shit. Much better to fix this problem first then go back to a normal routine when its done.
hero member
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I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There were only a little over 500 deaths worldwide out of which almost all were in China. There will not be an lack of workforce as the Virus kills weak and old people, usually recovering from another form of illness, just like other types of flu used to do.


If you have some immunity problems, like you have AIDS and you get a normal flu you have hgh probability of dying but nobody will make a big deal out of it if it really happens. Now if this is a new mutated flu everything changes. Now you're part of a completely new statistical group.
copper member
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Update on 2/6/2020 on the China Coronavirus here are the links below:

Below is a post I credit to Paashaas Profile: https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/paashaas-169384

here on Bitcointalk. Here is a link to Paashass's post. I suggest you read his post-in-depth with the chart of course. Sad

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53787712

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



Scary Stuff!

Brad

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Coronavirus & quarantine & effect on BTC Difficulty. How Bad/Likely?

Indeed, IF, I think it is 65% of ASIC miners are out of China and IF this Coronavirus Quarantine drags....indeed even past halving...

I'd guess that difficulty would stay flat for that time period? If this is not the case then my view is that any workers that could be

gathered under such a scenario, would be used to MAYBE build units (5nm maybe Q1 as stated by Innsilicon and Bitmain) thus if we

do see a rise in BTC difficulty, I'd pretty much count on the main ASIC makers feathering their own nest first by filling data halls on a

flat difficulty universe and consumers are just damned and SHOL. Sad


https://www.coindesk.com/how-the-long-tail-of-the-coronavirus-might-slow-bitcoins-hash-power-growth

Anyway, my own view is this coronavirus mild or otherwise will last as long as the typical 'flu season' which would be well into May 2020.

So, my guess is flat difficulty at best and at worse the China ASIC makers taking full advantage of limited workers to fill their own data halls with

equipment first with this flat difficulty for a few months. Or it could be worse, they could do the above with NEW 5nm equipment 'supposedly' due in Q1 2020!

Your views?

Take the Poll.

Brad
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