Topic: Correction Overdue (Read 4924 times)
After a long time all of the exchanges are level in their prices. Any speculation about what does it mean?
I did see this coming, a drop to 700/800 CAD. But, I also predicted that after that bitcoin prices would rest at around 2k by of December. Lets see!
i agree it's not just china, but they have had a pretty big role. the start of the chain of events was ulbricht got caught, which dipped the price of BTC by about $20.. then china came into the game and it shot up to the moon. U.S. speculation then took over when the positive senate hearings. to me, there has not been any other meteoric event that has occurred since the senate hearing.
Actually, if you look closely at the charts, at the consolidation point around $200 it was Bitstamp that led the rally (or Gox, its arguable). Thats when China lagged.
I look at the rally being $200. But, yes, you could say it started at or before Ulbricht, too.
i agree it's not just china, but they have had a pretty big role. the start of the chain of events was ulbricht got caught, which dipped the price of BTC by about $20.. then china came into the game and it shot up to the moon. U.S. speculation then took over when the positive senate hearings. to me, there has not been any other meteoric event that has occurred since the senate hearing.
looks like everyone was pretty quick to snatch up those cheap $1100 Coins.
Let's be honest. No one has any idea what the value of 1 BTC is, they're watching China and following their lead. On every single thing. China will determine the final valuation.At this point in time, yes, mainly because China drug us up to 7000 CYN.
But China did not start this rally or the ones before it. China lagged this rally from the gates.
I do not believe that China is the main determining factor in bitcoin pricing. Sometimes, yes, but man we have had several boat loads of awesome news and pro-bitcoin events in the US the last 2 months and THAT has ALOT to do with this price too.
So when exactly is this "correction" coming?
LOLZ.
LOLZ.
You were saying?
looks like everyone was pretty quick to snatch up those cheap $1100 Coins.
Let's be honest. No one has any idea what the value of 1 BTC is, they're watching China and following their lead. On every single thing. China will determine the final valuation.
looks like everyone was pretty quick to snatch up those cheap $1100 Coins.
HIT THE DECK!
happening right this second!! down to under 1100 as i write this.
Well, it dropped a fair amount today. Not like a rock, more like a feather 
I suspect a bit of profit taking going on.
We indeed live in interesting times.
I suspect a bit of profit taking going on. We indeed live in interesting times.
Stoch RSI is comfortably away from overbought zone. There is a still lot of fuel in the (current stage of the) rocket.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zi1gStochRSIzvzl
And Ask Sum in MtGox maintains healthy levels.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zi1gStochRSIzvzl
And Ask Sum in MtGox maintains healthy levels.
It keeps correcting, every day, all the way to 'da moon' 
So when exactly is this "correction" coming?
LOLZ.
LOLZ.
Didn't Bitcoin started as a new paradigm? So those things may not apply.
That is true. But bitcoin has so far grown through bubbles mostly. Thinking bubbles suddenly don't exist anymore is kinda naive.
I'm still a long term bull and coinbug. I just don't think markets move in straight lines
Please be kind and show to the rest of the world those bubbles. Don't keep all the info for yourself
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.
"When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover."
-- John Kenneth Galbraith
Trust me, 99 times out of 100 I would agree with you.
It has begun
Didn't Bitcoin started as a new paradigm? So those things may not apply.
That is true. But bitcoin has so far grown through bubbles mostly. Thinking bubbles suddenly don't exist anymore is kinda naive.
I'm still a long term bull and coinbug. I just don't think markets move in straight lines
good points but keep in mind, that time between bubbles are shorter and shorter right now we had two bubbles that cancelled each other (china would fall much more if people from USA wouldn't start buying suddenly after senate hearing).
Didn't Bitcoin started as a new paradigm? So those things may not apply.
That is true. But bitcoin has so far grown through bubbles mostly. Thinking bubbles suddenly don't exist anymore is kinda naive.
I'm still a long term bull and coinbug. I just don't think markets move in straight lines
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.
"When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover."
-- John Kenneth Galbraith
Didn't Bitcoin started as a new paradigm? So those things may not apply.
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.
"When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover."
-- John Kenneth Galbraith
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.
That would be interesting, but I based my speculation on markets in general. There is nothing more dynamic than trade.
I still think it will bobble around, and given how early we are in this game, I think it could have some significant downswings. I don't think it'll drop like a rock again, however, as Germany has accepted it as currency, the US is considering it, and China seems rather bullish on it as well. That's some heavy hitters right there, and regulations, when they come, will likely drive prices higher as well.
But the biggest long term driver will be general adoption. The more people use it, even as savings, the higher it's likely to trade. I think this run up is partially a correction upwards, and partially a bit of mania. I don't think we've hit the top, but I do believe the parabola will start to bend to the right real soon. In a way, I hope I'm wrong, because if it keeps going up like a rocket, my little stash will be worth quite a bit. But this is the way I see it, as of the moment.
And now for something completely different, I love your sig!
This is based on prior market moves. I believe we have switched gears forever.
As bitcoin starts to go mainstream, I think the prices will trend upward for a long time. However, there ought to be some interesting swings (profit taking, odd news, etcetera). At least I sincerely hope so, as I will buy when it drops. In the meantime, it's one hell of a ride, ain't it?
Correction to 10k.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April? Or 2012? Or last week....? It doesn't matter.
Well using data is the only way to estimate the future. Psychic abilities is also a way but aren't yet scientifically proven
Orrrr.....a more reasonable way would be to look at fundamentals, trends, and world events. Past performance means squat.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April? Or 2012? Or last week....? It doesn't matter.
It does matter. Market ultimately revolves around psychology and human mind never really changes.
Intuition is not magic, it's just a thought process one is not conscious of.
Intuition is enough when you have to think of simple things like "am i going to have a good time in the party tonight?"
Not for chaotic situations lile price movement. (Although some parties can be pretty chaotic as well)
Intuition is not magic, it's just a thought process one is not conscious of.
We did already have a correction to 400 last time it broke 1000 in china
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April? Or 2012? Or last week....? It doesn't matter.
Well using data is the only way to estimate the future. Psychic abilities is also a way but aren't yet scientifically proven
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Why do people keep bringing up what BTC did in April? Or 2012? Or last week....? It doesn't matter.
(Qualitative) warning signs:
* people are feeling more comfortable about buying bitcoin generally, it does not seem to be such a ridiculous idea
(many of my friends have asked me to buy more. Some of them are now coming round to the idea of buying bitcoin , they would never have considered it before)
* people are feeling more comfortable about buying bitcoin generally, it does not seem to be such a ridiculous idea
(many of my friends have asked me to buy more. Some of them are now coming round to the idea of buying bitcoin , they would never have considered it before)
Question is if they've just started buying now or if they've already bought. The "dumb" (uninformed) money tends to come in after a bubble has run for a while, and extend it further.
I do agree that conditions around here in the forum are getting a bit .. giddy, though.
In that it can't go up in a straight line forever, yes a correction is due. But it isn't happening in the markets, so why should it happen in bitcoin!
Hi guys
We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.
All the warning signs are in place.
We could hit 400-600 soon.
EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.
My prediction.
We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.
All the warning signs are in place.
We could hit 400-600 soon.
EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.
My prediction.
China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.
China is sleeping right now. Only the west is trading. (Time in China 0300)
Another warning sign people get to complacent. There is no China trading right now!
OP you should have This in the first post:
Disclaimer: The following message is coming straight out of my ass. Please make investment responsibly.
Hi guys
We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.
All the warning signs are in place.
We could hit 400-600 soon.
EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.
My prediction.
We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.
All the warning signs are in place.
We could hit 400-600 soon.
EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.
My prediction.
China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.
China is sleeping right now. Only the west is trading. (Time in China 0300)
Another warning sign people get to complacent. There is no China trading right now!
EDIT: removed 75% , see below.
75% is movement from 250 to 50... what we saw back in March/April.
Since then, swings have definitely been decreasing in percentage terms, and bitcoin has been becoming less volatile. Except for the past few weeks. For example , we moved 45% around 10 days ago.
So, I don't think we have another 75% movement occuring this time. However, we had a 26% correction at 9th/10th Nov , a 40% correction at 19/20th Nov , now we are approaching 30 Nov / 1 Dec , it makes sense for something similar to occur.
(Qualitative) warning signs:
* people are feeling more comfortable about buying bitcoin generally, it does not seem to be such a ridiculous idea
(many of my friends have asked me to buy more. Some of them are now coming round to the idea of buying bitcoin , they would never have considered it before)
* media becoming more positive
* increasing complacency generally
Difficult to put a quantative figure on it , but we're definitely getting close to a correction of some time - where all these weak hands who have recently bought in begin to sell.
This is only of concern to the short term trader as bitcoin has always recovered eventually from these corrections.
75% is movement from 250 to 50... what we saw back in March/April.
Since then, swings have definitely been decreasing in percentage terms, and bitcoin has been becoming less volatile. Except for the past few weeks. For example , we moved 45% around 10 days ago.
So, I don't think we have another 75% movement occuring this time. However, we had a 26% correction at 9th/10th Nov , a 40% correction at 19/20th Nov , now we are approaching 30 Nov / 1 Dec , it makes sense for something similar to occur.
(Qualitative) warning signs:
* people are feeling more comfortable about buying bitcoin generally, it does not seem to be such a ridiculous idea
(many of my friends have asked me to buy more. Some of them are now coming round to the idea of buying bitcoin , they would never have considered it before)
* media becoming more positive
* increasing complacency generally
Difficult to put a quantative figure on it , but we're definitely getting close to a correction of some time - where all these weak hands who have recently bought in begin to sell.
This is only of concern to the short term trader as bitcoin has always recovered eventually from these corrections.
What is "correct" for bitcoin? 
Hi guys
We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.
All the warning signs are in place.
We could hit 400-600 soon.
EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.
My prediction.
We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.
All the warning signs are in place.
We could hit 400-600 soon.
EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.
My prediction.
China doesnt seem to care about your prediction.
is that a down swing TO 75% (~750) or OF 75% (~250)?
either way where does 400-600 fit in?
either way where does 400-600 fit in?
Holy shit, we could be back to where we were 8-9 days ago!?!
How did you calculate 75%?
Based on..?
Isn't his psychic abilities pretty obvious. I for one am convinced
Based on..?
We are way overdue a large swing and correction in bitcoin.
All the warning signs are in place.
We could hit 400-600 soon.
EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.
My prediction.
All the warning signs are in place.
We could hit 400-600 soon.
EDIT: Maybe not 75% as originally posted, but certainly a 40% swing is possible.
My prediction.
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