I don't know, but there is a chance that gold and silver will break down through their horizontal support since 2011 at $1550 and $26, in which case we could see a big capitulation and the mining stocks could become illiquid again. But this is not sure.
I can't advise you on short-term now sorry, because it has gotten much more complicated. Coming about 2008 lows it was clear it was global reflation. Now some countries are hitting the wall, while the USA is dead-cat bouncing for the next couple of years...
The chaos will get worse. You want to preserve capital, not risk it too much (20% risk allocation?). Physical is safest.
Topic: Could $1000+ price lead to a government takeover via clamor for insurance? (Read 752 times)
March 25, 2013, 03:05:04 PM
March 25, 2013, 01:33:49 PM
Oh, the market oracle.
I used to go there every.single.day. for a lonnnnnng time.
After a while it was just the same depressing things over and over again. (Note that I didn't say those articles were misleading
In case you're interested, right now I have my "money" in (in no order)
USD
BTC
Physical Gold/Silver
Gold/Silver Mining Stocks
Feel free to critique the above, if you wish.
I used to go there every.single.day. for a lonnnnnng time.
After a while it was just the same depressing things over and over again. (Note that I didn't say those articles were misleading
In case you're interested, right now I have my "money" in (in no order)
USD
BTC
Physical Gold/Silver
Gold/Silver Mining Stocks
Feel free to critique the above, if you wish.
March 25, 2013, 12:49:09 PM
@whatis
Agreed that is why I don't want it to have weaknesses and fail when I really need it after 2017, when the chaos comes.
I think it will have a big crash and no liquidity right when I need it. It will be useless and you won't be able to get your money out. Any way, that is my fear.
I am working on a solution, but I am discouraged now, because I don't think anyone understands or cares or is interested.
For next 3 years, capital is flowing into the dollar and in USA, because it is so bad in Europe, Japan, and China. So it will appear that "happy days are here again" and everyone will pile into speculative investments.
Then in 2015.75, the rug will be pulled and much worse than in 2008. There will be in dead-cat bounce in 2016, then after 2017 it will be like falling off a cliff until 2033. It is going to be just like World War 2.
Everyone will be like deer in headlights, or chickens with heads chopped off.
You should be aware that I called the silver price exactly a year before it happened. I said it would go down to $22, then to $45 - $48, then crash to $25 - $27. I predicted that a year in advance:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html
I was the only person who did that.
I have learned a lot since then:
http://copute.com/edu/Intro%20to%20Computers.html#Why_Learn_Programming
Agreed that is why I don't want it to have weaknesses and fail when I really need it after 2017, when the chaos comes.
I think it will have a big crash and no liquidity right when I need it. It will be useless and you won't be able to get your money out. Any way, that is my fear.
I am working on a solution, but I am discouraged now, because I don't think anyone understands or cares or is interested.
For next 3 years, capital is flowing into the dollar and in USA, because it is so bad in Europe, Japan, and China. So it will appear that "happy days are here again" and everyone will pile into speculative investments.
Then in 2015.75, the rug will be pulled and much worse than in 2008. There will be in dead-cat bounce in 2016, then after 2017 it will be like falling off a cliff until 2033. It is going to be just like World War 2.
Everyone will be like deer in headlights, or chickens with heads chopped off.
You should be aware that I called the silver price exactly a year before it happened. I said it would go down to $22, then to $45 - $48, then crash to $25 - $27. I predicted that a year in advance:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html
I was the only person who did that.
I have learned a lot since then:
http://copute.com/edu/Intro%20to%20Computers.html#Why_Learn_Programming
March 25, 2013, 12:34:37 PM
Hi Anon,
Thanks for the food for though!
I think though the hype for BitCoin is justified though.
I have friends overseas for example. If one of them lost their job and needed help I could send a BTC or two in the matter of minutes. It's so incredibly efficient, but just like buying stocks or trading currencies isn't for everyone, Bitcoin won't be for everyone
Thanks for the food for though!
I think though the hype for BitCoin is justified though.
I have friends overseas for example. If one of them lost their job and needed help I could send a BTC or two in the matter of minutes. It's so incredibly efficient, but just like buying stocks or trading currencies isn't for everyone, Bitcoin won't be for everyone
March 25, 2013, 12:15:35 PM
@whatis,
No. The world will fall into a sovereign debt BIG BANG by 2017 and won't hit bottom until 2033. I provided the link to that cycle in the document we are discussing.
There is massive poverty coming, and the government is going to "steal" (find) everything they can via every law on the books. Stealing 10% of bank accounts in Cyprus is only the tip of the iceberg of what is coming.
It will get very ugly such as unreliable lie detector tests ("are you hiding assets?"), throwing you in jail for no reason, etc.
Chaos is coming...
Btw this is why I fear bitcoin will crash (in FX price) after 2017, but I think it will hit $100 - $499 first (bcz of all the crazy hype and expectations), but of course no one knows. And i am not invested in it. People will have to pull their money out to pay the government.
No. The world will fall into a sovereign debt BIG BANG by 2017 and won't hit bottom until 2033. I provided the link to that cycle in the document we are discussing.
There is massive poverty coming, and the government is going to "steal" (find) everything they can via every law on the books. Stealing 10% of bank accounts in Cyprus is only the tip of the iceberg of what is coming.
It will get very ugly such as unreliable lie detector tests ("are you hiding assets?"), throwing you in jail for no reason, etc.
Chaos is coming...
Btw this is why I fear bitcoin will crash (in FX price) after 2017, but I think it will hit $100 - $499 first (bcz of all the crazy hype and expectations), but of course no one knows. And i am not invested in it. People will have to pull their money out to pay the government.
March 25, 2013, 12:11:25 PM
Anony,
Are you talking about the credit crisis that will collide with the energy crisis, throwing our modern world into chaos?
I used to worry about that, a lot. I'm serious, a LOT.
But then it just became stressful for me so I decided to prepare a little bit without all the stress. We're all gonna die someday. If it gets THAT bad then I at least hope I have the option to die a painless death (quick fatal blow)
Hope that doesn't sound too morbid.
Are you talking about the credit crisis that will collide with the energy crisis, throwing our modern world into chaos?
I used to worry about that, a lot. I'm serious, a LOT.
But then it just became stressful for me so I decided to prepare a little bit without all the stress. We're all gonna die someday. If it gets THAT bad then I at least hope I have the option to die a painless death (quick fatal blow)
Hope that doesn't sound too morbid.
March 25, 2013, 12:06:17 PM
Any counter-example of any speculative investment that the public had access to that rose exponentially over 4 or 5 orders-of-magnitude and did not fall exponentially?
Why the qualification of "the public had access to"? The fact that this was (~uniquely) born public somehow makes it different?I meant a public investment that the public could invest in, i.e. not a private company.
March 25, 2013, 12:05:04 PM
I don't think BitCoin will get THIS big (where people are buying the majority of homes with BitCoins, getting majority of Paychecks with BitCoin) but IF it did, the Government would have ways of "balancing" things without "attacking" Bitcoin. This could involve higher taxation on land, higher fuel taxes, power taxes, etc etc. I hope that makes sense?
What gives the fiat its creation (original) value is that we have to pay out taxes in it.
But more important, the banksters absolutely must control the rate of creation of credit. Yes they can put fractional reserves on top of a commodity standard, e.g. the 1800s, but this just causes more frequent bank runs. Because humans never change their greed for more than they produced, and thus speculate with debt and speculative investments.
Banksters also don't want anonymity because they want to know what a potential competitor is doing. They only want anonymity for themselves.
I guess maybe you could use Gold as an example of an investment that rose a lot the past 13 years and didn't have a crash?
Gold crashes more often:
http://armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/08/9907/
When you are on a gold standard, the crashes come in the form of deflation.
Under fiat, they come in the form of inflation (or both).
Most people don't realize that both inflation and deflation concentrate wealth to the rich.
I try to teach, but it takes people a while to catch up.
Also, cool computer man. I don't want too much govt interaction with BitCoin, but who knows maybe it will. I'm just always skeptical when Gov't tries to do something on a large scale. Once such example is TSA agents don't even need a high school diploma to be employed. I know it might be a silly example, but I always roll my eyes when I hear that. 
You have no idea how bad it is going to get. That is why are you are not scared yet and you are thinking more about a bright-eyed future instead of thinking about how you are going survive.
March 25, 2013, 11:53:43 AM
Any counter-example of any speculative investment that the public had access to that rose exponentially over 4 or 5 orders-of-magnitude and did not fall exponentially?
Why the qualification of "the public had access to"? The fact that this was (~uniquely) born public somehow makes it different? March 25, 2013, 11:32:52 AM
I don't think BitCoin will get THIS big (where people are buying the majority of homes with BitCoins, getting majority of Paychecks with BitCoin) but IF it did, the Government would have ways of "balancing" things without "attacking" Bitcoin. This could involve higher taxation on land, higher fuel taxes, power taxes, etc etc. I hope that makes sense?
I guess maybe you could use Gold as an example of an investment that rose a lot the past 13 years and didn't have a crash?
Also, cool computer man. I don't want too much govt interaction with BitCoin, but who knows maybe it will. I'm just always skeptical when Gov't tries to do something on a large scale. Once such example is TSA agents don't even need a high school diploma to be employed. I know it might be a silly example, but I always roll my eyes when I hear that.
I guess maybe you could use Gold as an example of an investment that rose a lot the past 13 years and didn't have a crash?
Also, cool computer man. I don't want too much govt interaction with BitCoin, but who knows maybe it will. I'm just always skeptical when Gov't tries to do something on a large scale. Once such example is TSA agents don't even need a high school diploma to be employed. I know it might be a silly example, but I always roll my eyes when I hear that.
March 25, 2013, 11:19:03 AM
Sorry I just don't see it happening.
By that point Corporations would be way ahead of Gov't on this, and I highly doubt Government already has on a large scale or has a plan as of this moment to do this.
I don't see this being a bubble that can like go from $100,000 per bitcoin to like $10,000 per Bitcoin. I think we'll have dramatic ups and downs but not THAT dramatic.
People will know/learn that BitCoins are finite. They will know/learn that it's a way to exchange wealth nearly instantaneously to anywhere in the world for almost free. No need to go through the traditional banks with fees. This in itself I feel is valuable, even IF a thriving economy related to buying goods and services with BitCoins never becomes really huge.
Those are my 2 BitCoins. (I'm feeling generous today)
Of course, it's just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.
By that point Corporations would be way ahead of Gov't on this, and I highly doubt Government already has on a large scale or has a plan as of this moment to do this.
I don't see this being a bubble that can like go from $100,000 per bitcoin to like $10,000 per Bitcoin. I think we'll have dramatic ups and downs but not THAT dramatic.
People will know/learn that BitCoins are finite. They will know/learn that it's a way to exchange wealth nearly instantaneously to anywhere in the world for almost free. No need to go through the traditional banks with fees. This in itself I feel is valuable, even IF a thriving economy related to buying goods and services with BitCoins never becomes really huge.
Those are my 2 BitCoins. (I'm feeling generous today)
Of course, it's just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.
This definitely makes sense to me. It's hard to imagine Bitcoin being worth $100,000 or even a million dollars though. Perhaps I should hold onto my BTC for a while.
March 25, 2013, 11:13:44 AM
All comments are valuable.
NSA Building $896.5 Million Supercomputing Center
Currencies only become stable long-term if they become the reserve currency.
Any counter-example of any speculative investment that the public had access to that rose exponentially over 4 or 5 orders-of-magnitude and did not fall exponentially?
If truly ubiquitously adopted, the government MUST control it, otherwise they lose most of their power.
I think a smaller adopted, more P2P stable currency (with moderate rational rates of appreciation) would be there for us freedom lovers when TSHTF circa 2017. I am expecting World War 3 circa 2019, due to the repeating cycle linked within the document that is the subject of this thread.
Thanks for expressing. Appreciated.
Sorry I just don't see it happening.
By that point Corporations would be way ahead of Gov't on this, and I highly doubt Government already has on a large scale or has a plan as of this moment to do this.
By that point Corporations would be way ahead of Gov't on this, and I highly doubt Government already has on a large scale or has a plan as of this moment to do this.
NSA Building $896.5 Million Supercomputing Center
I don't see this being a bubble that can like go from $100,000 per bitcoin to like $10,000 per Bitcoin. I think we'll have dramatic ups and downs but not THAT dramatic.
Currencies only become stable long-term if they become the reserve currency.
Any counter-example of any speculative investment that the public had access to that rose exponentially over 4 or 5 orders-of-magnitude and did not fall exponentially?
People will know/learn that BitCoins are finite. They will know/learn that it's a way to exchange wealth nearly instantaneously to anywhere in the world for almost free. No need to go through the traditional banks with fees. This in itself I feel is valuable, even IF a thriving economy related to buying goods and services with BitCoins never becomes really huge.
If truly ubiquitously adopted, the government MUST control it, otherwise they lose most of their power.
I think a smaller adopted, more P2P stable currency (with moderate rational rates of appreciation) would be there for us freedom lovers when TSHTF circa 2017. I am expecting World War 3 circa 2019, due to the repeating cycle linked within the document that is the subject of this thread.
Those are my 2 BitCoins. (I'm feeling generous today)
Of course, it's just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.
Of course, it's just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.
Thanks for expressing. Appreciated.
March 25, 2013, 10:42:57 AM
Sorry I just don't see it happening.
By that point Corporations would be way ahead of Gov't on this, and I highly doubt Government already has on a large scale or has a plan as of this moment to do this.
I don't see this being a bubble that can like go from $100,000 per bitcoin to like $10,000 per Bitcoin. I think we'll have dramatic ups and downs but not THAT dramatic.
People will know/learn that BitCoins are finite. They will know/learn that it's a way to exchange wealth nearly instantaneously to anywhere in the world for almost free. No need to go through the traditional banks with fees. This in itself I feel is valuable, even IF a thriving economy related to buying goods and services with BitCoins never becomes really huge.
Those are my 2 BitCoins. (I'm feeling generous today)
Of course, it's just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.
By that point Corporations would be way ahead of Gov't on this, and I highly doubt Government already has on a large scale or has a plan as of this moment to do this.
I don't see this being a bubble that can like go from $100,000 per bitcoin to like $10,000 per Bitcoin. I think we'll have dramatic ups and downs but not THAT dramatic.
People will know/learn that BitCoins are finite. They will know/learn that it's a way to exchange wealth nearly instantaneously to anywhere in the world for almost free. No need to go through the traditional banks with fees. This in itself I feel is valuable, even IF a thriving economy related to buying goods and services with BitCoins never becomes really huge.
Those are my 2 BitCoins. (I'm feeling generous today)
Of course, it's just my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.
March 25, 2013, 10:25:06 AM
The big risk is on the way back down from the exponential price rise, as expectations will move faster than the reality of transaction growth:
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/3111/will-bitcoin-suffer-from-a-mining-tragedy-of-the-commons-when-mining-fees-drop-t/8686#8686
Read the linked answer, it is just a few short paragraphs. Otherwise you can't comment intelligibly.
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/3111/will-bitcoin-suffer-from-a-mining-tragedy-of-the-commons-when-mining-fees-drop-t/8686#8686
Read the linked answer, it is just a few short paragraphs. Otherwise you can't comment intelligibly.
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